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Thread: This round of QE will not increase Singapore landed property prices:

  1. #181
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    Quote Originally Posted by equalizer
    Since u hv excuse yrself frm commenting on this (which you obviously hv no counter to), why are you still asking for an explanation?

    You still haven't provided any hard facts to back thread title so i presume it is worst than just speculation or opinion and just a downright inaccurate comment.
    Its fine if you tell us that you didn't learn about supply and demand pricing concept in school. We all started somewhere isnt it?

    I hope you did learn something here.

  2. #182
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    Quote Originally Posted by equalizer
    Typical cop out when u hv nothing substantive to bring to the table. I do not see any hard facts frm u to support the thread title either. Its always easy to tear down but i hv yet to see any substance frm u yet.

    Investment returns dont only comprise rental but also capital appreciation. There must b an exit pt to realise yr profits. Besides, clamp dwn on ep/pr will only spell bad news for investor who intend to rent.
    If you start talking nonsense am I suppose to follow you?

    Investment returns? Sure, show me the numbers and stop talking about white toilet paper.

  3. #183
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    Default BULL run

    Hello everyone.

    Property price will still go higher until 2015.

    QE3 means almost zero interest rates continues.....

    So if rental yield is 3% why would anyone keep money in the bank? Why?

    Even borrow money is just going to cost you 1%.

    I think it's a no brainer. Sadly only the rich can get into the market because of all the government cooling measures.....

  4. #184
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    Quote Originally Posted by equalizer
    First you boast that you can show me a transaction with incredible margins. When I call on your bluff and ask you to show me one in current context i.e with SSD, you try to turn it around and ask me to show one instead .

    As I said...kindergarden technique of answering post....you want me to show then you must show me first....

    Come on...something substantive from you will indeed be refreshing.
    the whole purpose of this discussion was to prove to you that even without reno (or even collecting the keys) condo buyer can flip and make decent profit. Would you be able to show us that landed buyer can do that same without A&A?

    And btw, what does SSD has got to do with this discussion???

    Originally Posted by equalizer
    I can also say that that some condo transactions do not take into account renovation costs so the gains there may be artficially inflated. For owners who have held the units for some time and then sold, you also have not factored in the maintenance fees that they have paid over the yrs for condos. There are no maintenance fees for landed.

    For landed , I believe there are sales of old totally unrefurbished houses as well as new ones so it kind of balances/averages out the 'actual' gains. The perceived differential which you are under the impression that exist is probably way lower than you think.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    NO NO, I was just asking for your source of information on government policy for new SC. Till now i only hear you making lots of baseless assumption about it, but no concrete proof to validate your information.

    25K to 35K is around 40% leh, is that nitpicking?

    There is no need to make baseless assumption and speculation about the whitepaper. Till now, you couldnt even show us the link to the part where the government talk about increasing new SC to 25-35K per year.

    Btw, is there any reason why you didnt comment any about the demography profile of new SC I posted earlier?
    The NPTD is a division of the Prime Minister's office. As I have mentioned a few times before, they will be using the info frm them as a basis in their white paper for addressing population issues. You want to know their intentions... pls follow the news but as usual, you need to be spoon fed...

    http://sg.news.yahoo.com/blogs/singa...103531625.html

    Of course they won't reveal the number until the white paper is out but where do you think they will pluck the number from. Like I said, its a reasonable assumption but then some pple just can't grasp it.

    38% of 25K is still 9500 working individuals per yr....
    Last edited by equalizer; 20-09-12 at 16:18.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    the whole purpose of this discussion was to prove to you that even without reno (or even collecting the keys) condo buyer can flip and make decent profit. Would you be able to show us that landed buyer can do that same without A&A?

    And btw, what does SSD has got to do with this discussion???
    Hello, mkt dynamics have changed. Yr assumption that incredible margins made without reno is no longer valid. You are obviously living in the past.

    Because the motivation to flip is no longer there with SSD. A buyer is forced to hold for 4 yrs now and will have to renovate the place to get rental plus pay maintenance for 4 yrs, I haven't even factored in agent's commission.

    Having said this,, please show me a transaction with incredible margins which was subject to SSD.

    The 'quality' of yr posts is indeed becoming very evident.

  7. #187
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    If you start talking nonsense am I suppose to follow you?

    Investment returns? Sure, show me the numbers and stop talking about white toilet paper.
    If what I am saying is nonsense, then it would be extremely easy for someone of yr 'superior' intellect to demolish my arguments.

    Wouldn't this be more effective ? After all, you are already wasting the same amt of typing effort just to sling insults at me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by equalizer
    Hello, mkt dynamics have changed. Yr assumption that incredible margins made without reno is no longer valid. You are obviously living in the past.

    Because the motivation to flip is no longer there with SSD. A buyer is forced to hold for 4 yrs now and will have to renovate the place to get rental plus pay maintenance for 4 yrs, I haven't even factored in agent's commission.

    Having said this,, please show me a transaction with incredible margins which was subject to SSD.

    The 'quality' of yr posts is indeed becoming very evident.

    You are again trying to divert this discussion into something else. Our discussion is about landed buyer having to invest in A&A before they can make profit. You claim that condo is that same and I am offering to prove that condo buyer can make a decent profit without reno or even collecting the key.

    Dont need to ask if condo buyer can flip and make profit with SSD. That is STUPID question.
    Is this what you call substance?

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    Quote Originally Posted by equalizer
    The NPTD is a division of the Prime Minister's office. As I have mentioned a few times before, they will be using the info frm them as a basis in their white paper for addressing population issues. You want to know their intentions... pls follow the news but as usual, you need to be spoon fed...

    http://sg.news.yahoo.com/blogs/singa...103531625.html

    Of course they won't reveal the number until the white paper is out but where do you think they will pluck the number from. Like I said, its a reasonable assumption but then some pple just can't grasp it.

    38% of 25K is still 9500 working individuals per yr....
    I have read the article, but my question to you is who, or where or when, did the government say that they are going increase the inflow for new citizen from currently level to 25-35k?

    I remember PM Lee touch abit about the population issue during the NDP rally speech and he mentioned the government is proposing several measures to boost fertility rate, but there were no mentioned about boosting inflow of new SC. May be I missed out. Can you fill me in?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    You are again trying to divert this discussion into something else. Our discussion is about landed buyer having to invest in A&A before they can make profit. You claim that condo is that same and I am offering to prove that condo buyer can make a decent profit without reno or even collecting the key.

    Dont need to ask if condo buyer can flip and make profit with SSD. That is STUPID question.
    Is this what you call substance?
    Who's trying to divert the discussion?

    First you accused me of using only old landed as an example. I then reply with an example of the advantages of buying a NEW landed vs a NEW condo & holding for 4 yrs where A&A was not a factor.

    Then you go off topic and boast that you can show a txn with incredible margins by flipping without reno

    When I demolish that argument, you come back and start crying that I have gone off topic.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    Dont need to ask if condo buyer can flip and make profit with SSD. That is STUPID question.
    Oh..its seems stupid now ah? I just remember somebody who was under the impression that it was perfectly legit and that pple can still flip just a few minutes ago...I wonder what it makes that person if this is considered stupid.
    Last edited by equalizer; 20-09-12 at 17:09.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    I have read the article, but my question to you is who, or where or when, did the government say that they are going increase the inflow for new citizen from currently level to 25-35k?

    I remember PM Lee touch abit about the population issue during the NDP rally speech and he mentioned the government is proposing several measures to boost fertility rate, but there were no mentioned about boosting inflow of new SC. May be I missed out. Can you fill me in?
    Obviously your reading /comprehension ability is impaired when you are upset...calm down breathe and read this again...

    Heading of news article - S’pore needs to attract new immigrants: DPM Teo

    Quote Originally Posted by equalizer
    Of course they won't reveal the number until the white paper is out but where do you think they will pluck the number from. Like I said, its a reasonable assumption but then some pple just can't grasp it
    .

  12. #192
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    Quote Originally Posted by equalizer
    Who's trying to divert the discussion?

    First you accused me of using only old landed as an example. I then reply with an example of the advantages of buying a NEW landed vs a NEW condo & holding for 4 yrs where A&A was not a factor.

    Then you go off topic and boast that you can show a txn with incredible margins by flipping without reno

    When I demolish that argument, you come back and start crying that I have gone off topic.

    Oh..its seems stupid now ah? I just remember somebody who was under the impression that it was perfectly legit just a few minutes ago...I wonder what it makes that person if this is considered stupid.

    1) Yes, I say that you selectively choose to compare old FH landed vs old FH condo because it only through buying old landed property to rebuild and A&A that you can claim you make decent money.

    2) Referring to the below URA price chart which you posted, I highlighted that price index of landed property can be misleading because it doesnt take into account the amount of A&A money spend on doing up the property. e.g. buying a old landed for $1.5m, spend 500K on A&A and sold it for 2.2m. For URA, they take it as 700K profit instead of 200K.




    3) You counter argument was that condo also need renovation etc. But I offer to prove to you that condo buyer have been making decent profits without doing any reno or even collect the keys and I ask if you could prove likewise? obviously you cant

    4) Instead of proving yourself, you started asking stupid question like can condo be flip and make money with 16% SSD.

    So if you have facts to prove yourself, please lay it down on the table instead of talking about white toilet paper.

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    Quote Originally Posted by equalizer
    Obviously your reading /comprehension ability is impaired when you are upset...calm down breathe and read this again...

    Heading of news article - S’pore needs to attract new immigrants: DPM Teo

    .
    obviously you think immigrants = citizens dont you?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    1) Yes, I say that you selectively choose to compare old FH landed vs old FH condo because it only through buying old landed property to rebuild and A&A that you can claim you make decent money.

    2) Referring to the below URA price chart which you posted, I highlighted that price index of landed property can be misleading because it doesnt take into account the amount of A&A money spend on doing up the property. e.g. buying a old landed for $1.5m, spend 500K on A&A and sold it for 2.2m. For URA, they take it as 700K profit instead of 200K.




    3) You counter argument was that condo also need renovation etc. But I offer to prove to you that condo buyer have been making decent profits without doing any reno or even collect the keys and I ask if you could prove likewise? obviously you cant


    PLEASE GET YR FACTS RIGHT : I took up yr offer to prove to me that a condo buyer now can still make INCREDIBLE MARGINS (these were yr words and not decent profits) but you could not deliver.

    4) Instead of proving yourself, you started asking stupid question like can condo be flip and make money with 16% SSD.

    CORRECTION : Because you could not deliver and you knew that your previous argument could no longer could stand. i.e. people who buy condos cannot make incredible margins anymore, you tried to divert the attention by writing untruths in this post.

    These are the facts and anyone can follow the posts in the forum.





    So if you have facts to prove yourself, please lay it down on the table instead of talking about white toilet paper.
    ................
    I

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    Quote Originally Posted by equalizer
    ................
    I
    Apology accepted.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    obviously you think immigrants = citizens dont you?
    Oh boy...now I know what I am dealing with....back to kindergarden again...

    Did you actually read the report by NPTD and know what they are recommending? Who do you think their recommendations will be adopted by?

    excerpts from from the NPTD report

    The report said that if the total fertility rate (TFR) remains at its current 1.2, the country would need an immigration inflow of between 20,000 and 25,000 new citizens annually to keep the citizen-population size stable.

    .......The citizen population does not include permanent residents or foreigners,
    Last edited by equalizer; 20-09-12 at 18:00.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    Apology accepted.
    oh dear...kindergarden behaviour....

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    Quote Originally Posted by equalizer
    oh dear...kindergarden behaviour....
    It is spell as Kindergarten (not garden)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    It is spell as Kindergarten (not garden)
    you have justified yr level of maturity...thank you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by equalizer
    Oh boy...now I know what I am dealing with....back to kindergarden again...

    Did you actually read the report by NPTD and know what they are recommeding? Who do you think their recommendations will be adopted by?

    excerpts from from the NPTD report

    The report said that if the total fertility rate (TFR) remains at its current 1.2, the country would need an immigration inflow of between 20,000 and 25,000 new citizens annually to keep the citizen-population size stable.

    .......The citizen population does not include permanent residents or foreigners,
    It is all right that you misunderstood the meaning of immigrant. There is really no need to be ashamed

    You should be proud that you learn a few things today. Including how to spell Kindergarten with a T


    Obviously your reading /comprehension ability is impaired when you are upset...calm down breathe and read this again...

    Heading of news article - S’pore needs to attract new immigrants: DPM Teo

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    It is all right that you misunderstood the meaning of immigrant. There is really no need to be ashamed

    You should be proud that you learn a few things today. Including how to spell Kindergarten with a T
    Sorry but i don't engage in such taunting. Nice try tho'. When you are ready to post something substantive, let me know.

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    After realizing your level of maturity, its must be quite taxing on yr young mind to see the big picture and piece everything together.

    Let me spell it out in simple terms for you :

    1. We know Govt wants to increase immigrants :

    Headlines : S'pore needs to attract more immigrants : DPM Teo
    2. We also know that they target ard 25K new citizens a yr:

    NPTD/IPS report
    3. Another fact is that they are scaling down PRs/EPs and want to encourage PRs to take up citizenship (to the extent that they will reject PR renewals):

    a ST : Tighter rules lead to far fewer PRs admitted from 2010
    b. CNA : Budget 2012 round-up: Singapore to reduce foreign worker inflow
    c. CNA - Government encourages more Singapore PRs to take up citizenship. SM Goh : "Moving forward, we are going to approach some of them to take up Singapore citizenship, if they don't then their PR will not be renewed. That's a better way.

    4. Immigrants = SC + PR

    5. There is a max number of immigrants we can take in each year as our infrastructure is already straining. So if the number of immigrants are limited each year, based on facts (1) to (3), who gains and who suffters? I believer you can work that out without my help.

    6. You talk about attrition of old SC but immigration doesn't work like your brain which can only process one bit of info after regurgitating the other. They don't wait for old SC to die off and then replace them but rely on forecasts and life expectancy as in the NPTD report. Hence they will still bring in at least 25K new citizens regardless of whether the old SC die off or not.

    It doesn't matter if there is more SC than originally planned. However, the converse is true if old SC die off faster than expected. They will increase the intake the next year with a bigger buffer. Therefore the 25K number that I used could even be understated as they would want to build up a buffer.

    7. What if old SC live much longer than planned and our population increases too fast? Then they will just not renew PR or EP passes. Citizens first!

    So bottom line is : Citizens - UP, PR/EP - DOWN.


    Ok, got it? I am going to switch the flow now and it could get a bit complex for you. Let me know if you can't follow.

    QE3 and its effects.

    1. It will increase liquidity and possibility even decrease interest rates further. This means financing capability will increase and S$ strengthen

    2. This will generally have a positive impact on the entire spectrum of property buyers (SC, PR and foreigners)

    3. However, PRs and foreigners will decrease (if you have managed to follow my points above) whilst SC will increase.

    4. Less PR/EP = less people to rent apt/condos and a smaller pool of buyers of buyers for condo/apts. If the PR/EP are paid in US$, their purchasing power will be eroded further.

    5. More SC and greater financing capability means SC can now afford bigger homes with less financing burden. Means bigger pool of buyers for landed.

    6. You mentioned yr quantum effect and affordability but MM restrictions are in place plus QE 3 will boost affordability.

    7. If you are an SC and your affordability quantum increase, sure, you can also buy condos/apt but won't it make better sense to buy an asset with limited supply rather one with supply overhang?
    For new SC who can afford a landed but was previously restricted from buying one, won't it be a natural choice?

    I let you work it out for yourself since you always like to be spoonfed.

    End of lesson. Better run along to another playground. Its quite dangerous here and I am afraid you might fall on your head. You can't afford to sustain any further damage to your brain.
    Last edited by equalizer; 21-09-12 at 11:07.

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    Quote Originally Posted by equalizer
    After realizing your level of maturity, its must be quite taxing on yr young mind to see the big picture and piece everything together.

    Let me spell it out in simple terms for you :

    1. We know Govt wants to increase immigrants :



    2. We also know that they target ard 25K new citizens a yr:



    3. Another fact is that they are scaling down PRs/EPs and want to encourage PRs to take up citizenship (to the extent that they will reject PR renewals):




    4. Immigrants = SC + PR

    5. There is a max number of immigrants we can take in each year as our infrastructure is already straining. So if the number of immigrants are limited each year, based on facts (1) to (3), who gains and who suffters? I believer you can work that out without my help.

    6. You talk about attrition of old SC but immigration doesn't work like your brain which can only process one bit of info after regurgitating the other. They don't wait for old SC to die off and then replace them but rely on forecasts and life expectancy as in the NPTD report. Hence they will still bring in at least 25K new citizens regardless of whether the old SC die off or not.

    It doesn't matter if there is more SC than originally planned. However, the converse is true if old SC die off faster than expected. They will increase the intake the next year with a bigger buffer. Therefore the 25K number that I used could even be understated as they would want to build up a buffer.

    7. What if old SC live much longer than planned and our population increases too fast? Then they will just not renew PR or EP passes. Citizens first!

    So bottom line is : Citizens - UP, PR/EP - DOWN.


    Ok, got it? I am going to switch the flow now and it could get a bit complex for you. Let me know if you can't follow.

    QE3 and its effects.

    1. It will increase liquidity and possibility even decrease interest rates further. This means financing capability will increase and S$ strengthen

    2. This will generally have a positive impact on the entire spectrum of property buyers (SC, PR and foreigners)

    3. However, PRs and foreigners will decrease (if you have managed to follow my points above) whilst SC will increase.

    4. Less PR/EP = less people to rent apt/condos and a smaller pool of buyers of buyers for condo/apts. If the PR/EP are paid in US$, their purchasing power will be eroded further.

    5. More SC and greater financing capability means SC can now afford bigger homes with less financing burden. Means bigger pool of buyers for landed.

    6. You mentioned yr quantum effect and affordability but MM restrictions are in place plus QE 3 will boost affordability.

    7. If you are an SC and your affordability quantum increase, sure, you can also buy condos/apt but won't it make better sense to buy an asset with limited supply rather one with supply overhang?
    For new SC who can afford a landed but was previously restricted from buying one, won't it be a natural choice?

    I let you work it out for yourself since you always like to be spoonfed.

    End of lesson. Better run along to another playground. Its quite dangerous here and I am afraid you might fall on your head. You can't afford to sustain any further damage to your brain.
    You can sugarcoat your theory with whatever assumptions as you wish, at the end of the day you are still unable to show us any concrete facts and numbers to support your argument that landed prices are not inflated by A&A activities, and that demand for landed is on the rise because of new citizens.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    You can sugarcoat your theory with whatever assumptions as you wish, at the end of the day you are still unable to show us any concrete facts and numbers to support your argument that landed prices are not inflated by A&A activities, and that demand for landed is on the rise because of new citizens.
    Please feel free to demolish my assumptions with YOUR FACTS if you can. If not, then you are just noise in this forum.

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    Quote Originally Posted by equalizer
    Please feel free to demolish my assumptions with YOUR FACTS if you can. If not, then you are just noise in this forum.
    In university when we do a thesis we always need to provide supporting material to prove our own findings . Instead of doing that now you are saying that others need to provide supporting material to prove your nonsense?

    You should go back to school and get some proper education lah. Talk is cheap until you get down to the details and fact.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    In university when we do a thesis we always need to provide supporting material to prove our own findings . Instead of doing that now you are saying that others need to provide supporting material to prove your nonsense?

    You should go back to school and get some proper education lah. Talk is cheap until you get down to the details and fact.
    Noise......

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    Quote Originally Posted by equalizer
    Noise......
    I am very free today, so lets start this again.

    Topic of our discussions

    1) Singapore government policy on immigrant will boost demand for landed property in Singapore

    2) Price of landed property is not inflated by A&A activities

    Now you can go ahead and tell us point by point to support your argument.

    I repeat, point by point, and any assumptions made will have to supported by facts or economic theories NOT using more assumptions to support your assumptions.

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    any statistic on
    1) % of new citizen buying landed compared to buying non-landed properties?
    2) % of new citizen buyer as compared to old citizen buyers of landed properties?
    3) % of new citizen buyer as compared to old citizen buyers of non-landed properties?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    I am very free today, so lets start this again.

    Topic of our discussions

    1) Singapore government policy on immigrant will boost demand for landed property in Singapore

    2) Price of landed property is not inflated by A&A activities

    Now you can go ahead and tell us point by point to support your argument.

    I repeat, point by point, and any assumptions made will have to supported by facts or economic theories NOT using more assumptions to support your assumptions.
    Stick to thread title. Answering a queston with a question very easy. My points are above. Feel free to comment with your supporting facts.

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    very impressive debate here ! pls continue so I can learn more , thanks

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