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Thread: This round of QE will not increase Singapore landed property prices:

  1. #1
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    Default This round of QE will not increase Singapore landed property prices:

    I have been investing in property market for over 20 years. I own my first property at age 23 and my first bungalow when i was 37 years old. I have realised it is a very dangerous thinking to believe that property prices will go up forever.But is that the whole story ? That property prices will never drop ?


    This is proof that I have been in the property market since the 1990s:







    The property index graph that many agents are showing you: the graph that keeps increasing does not take into account one important factor: REAL terms consideration.


    The reason why the property index is a graph that is ever increasing is because of continual inflation in the global system after the first QE by the USA in 1965. You draw any asset class graph (eg. gold ) without considering inflation level for that matter and you will get an ever increasing price index.


    The property market has both ups and down cycles. In partcular. the index graph after factoring all these will show you that property prices can decrease up to 40% !!!


    In case you still do not understand completely what i m saying here's a simplified example:


    One of the key points to note here is affordability: did the middle real income increased in line with property prices after considering the overall economic situation in the system ?


    For example:


    Case 1:1969, it costs 50cents to buy a bowl of noddle and middle income level was $1000 and property price is $20000.


    Case 2:1971, it costs 80cents to buy a bowl of noddle and middle income level was $1000, and if property price is still at $20000, then property prices actually dropped in real terms in case 2.


    Whenever i see this property index rises above the affordibility index, I can tell a property downturn is coming.i shall reveal in due time my own version of this graph, and you will see what i mean. and i shall reveal my method used to calculate these indices too.


    Remember , no such thing as property prices increasing forever; it appears to be so because inflation level and other factors are not taken into consideration.


    It is just a pure price index, not an index in REAL terms.


    In my humble opinion, property prices could be falling very soon. It will be led by low sales volume first.


    If you really have to get a property now for own occupation,then it is safer to go for new HDB or new Executive Condo.Since private market is only moderately controlled, the fall could be harder. And because developers building private projects have 5 years to clear stock, 2015 could be the bottom if we start counting from 2010.


    Now, look at the landed prices objectively now. Many terraces in strange locations of approx 1000 sqft but rebuilt up to the max plot ratio of around 2000 over sqft .These are now asking for S$3M or more. Would buyers with budget of S$3M want to buy these, since buyers with that kind of budget are sophiscated and discerning investors? If they have S$3Million budget, they would rather build their own landed with their own design and taste on lower ratio.


    "As long as you have not realised your property profits or cannot realise your property profits; THEY ARE NOT PROFITS. They are merely an illusion in your mind."
    - Wise Words by BJ21T


    I can also say my Nassim bungalow is worth S$100Million. But as long as there are no takers, it remains an unrealised dream. I only needs one of my neighbors to sell his at S$5 Million to sabo me.


    This is what the angmo subprime called :" The Wealth Effect".





    The underlying fear I have is this : Do we wish to have landed all owned by "New" Singaporeans instead of locally born Singaporeans eventually in the future ?


    I have no issues if they go buy up all the condos or 99 years cluster TOWN houses. BUT LANDED is a Special class of property reserved for TRUE SINGAPOREANS ONLY. Singaporeans who are willing to fight for the country. Until the new ones can prove themselves, I would reserve my landed for myself and brothers here thank you.


    If landed is not an important aspect of POLITICS, why do Australia, Malaysia, India, and even some states in USA restrict buying of lands ?


    One suggestion I have is to allow only second generation of "New" Singaporeans to buy landed. Or if the second generation is NOT born here, they have to wait for their locally BORN grandchildren to buy it for them. KEY WORD here is locally born of this land Or better still: TO HAVE SERVED NATIONAL SERVICE IN SAF .






    The thing I AM NERVOUS ABOUT IS WHEN high property prices is NOT substainable. Substainable in the perspective of LOCALLY BORN SINGAPOREAN and with regards to their financial fairness.


    It must be attainable to the local Singaporean WHOM had worked hard for their SGD and be able to buy a proper landed at the level of their next upgrade in the social life/class ladder.


    IF HOWEVER, the landed prices are artifically inflated due to some person(s) who HAS no concept of the value of SGD ( IMAGINE USING PURE CASH TO BUY A PROPERTY ! ), then the landed price will reach a stage BEYOND the locally born Singaporean who are climbing this social ladder.SINCE there exist this disparity gap in Wealth level and perception of value of money between the PRC and local Singaporean.


    IF local Singaporean cannot afford landed, then logically these landed will eventually ended up in the hands of "NEW" Singaporean if you know what I mean. The landed will hence be passed around among this group of people ONLY.Hence creating an unfairness in the economic system.


    I hope our PAP look into new companies ( Hanyu Pinyin sounding Names ) set up with the sole intention to acquire huge plot of private landed here. Better find out who are the shareholders composition.This is very easily done by sending staff to look and record all the sign boards placed outside the reconstructing sites. Thank You.







    Tread with caution.
    Good luck.




    神龍股俠
    nil sine labore!

  2. #2
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    errr...sorry, I fail to see what correlation your title : "This round QE3 will not increase SG landed property prices" vs your rather long post. In fact, it appears rather contradictory in that the context of the post seems to indicate a deep fear that the excessive liquidity and influx of NEW singaporeans WILL indeed push up landed prices rather than NOT affect it.

    Perhaps I am rather groggy this sunday am and fail to see the pun or irony intended in your post. It seems very much like a plea to the higher powers to do something about what you think is going to become a REALITY. Let me tell you why this plea will fail....in one simple sentence


    ALL our ministers live in landed.....

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    when this bro speaks he has VERY deep meaning...like confucis...


  4. #4
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    yah....catch no bola....third eye very cheem indeed...let me retreat to my bungalow by the sea and meditate.....Ommmm

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    Sometime I got a hangover like that too in the morning... Its no shame really

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    Quote Originally Posted by indomie
    Sometime I got a hangover like that too in the morning... Its no shame really
    Haha...Nothing like a good packet of indomie with a runny egg to cure my hangover.....

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    Indeed, i think some overestimate the value of their landed given that it's in original condition.

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    well said abt property price increase. Its all abt inflation hedging. Property is like all assest class like equity or commodity i.e. Gold.

    With inflation assets then to be where people will park the $.

  9. #9
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    I agreed that QE3 might not increase property price.

    BUT SINGAPORE GOVERNMENT recent implementation of salary increase will affect the property price. If you start to increase salary for public servant, it will affect the entire singapore. Tide will rise all boats. So I say the property price will be affected by to Government recent policy. This create more optimistic view and .....

  10. #10
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    Teachers / Lecturers / Doctors / Nurses will be new found army of the Empire

    for teachers / lecturers they will buy new projects near DTL2/DTL3 MRT stations to have direct access to top primary/secondary schools, polys, SUTD, NAFA, SMU where they work in a few years time



    None of them can afford landed other than the senior doctors

    Last edited by phantom_opera; 16-09-12 at 16:24.
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  11. #11
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    I think he meant to have a differentiation in QE effects on landed vs non-landed. There are more conditions to buy landed properties, in the hope that they are reserved for only true blue Singaporeans who have done their part and are here for the long run.

    Sorry bro, few true blue Singaporeans can truly afford landed, especially the ones that are newer and feel really inhabitable.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by kane
    Indeed, i think some overestimate the value of their landed given that it's in original condition.
    f i own landed i would do the same...landed owners are king...

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    Default question

    Hey BJ21 why do you make a long post that doesn't support the subject header?

    Btw may I know if the 21 refers to your age?

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    I thought the healthcare workers pay increment only applies to the lower paid ones.?

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    It refers to his IQ.

    Quote Originally Posted by Localite
    Hey BJ21 why do you make a long post that doesn't support the subject header?

    Btw may I know if the 21 refers to your age?

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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    Teachers / Lecturers / Doctors / Nurses will be new found army of the Empire

    for teachers / lecturers they will buy new projects near DTL2/DTL3 MRT stations to have direct access to top primary/secondary schools, polys, SUTD, NAFA, SMU where they work in a few years time



    None of them can afford landed other than the senior doctors

    The observation is quite true, there has been an increase in buying by teachers/educators in my estate. esp the younger ones.

    for landed, most of the senior teachers are staying on landed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by leesg123
    The observation is quite true, there has been an increase in buying by teachers/educators in my estate. esp the younger ones.

    for landed, most of the senior teachers are staying on landed.
    I know a few senior teachers, and they are indeed living on landed properties. One of them is aiming for second landed. But what they earn is only part of the picture. Some of them do not have time to spend the money, especially if they are at the family building stage. Plus canteen food etc. So not surprising that what they earned are saved up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by leesg123
    The observation is quite true, there has been an increase in buying by teachers/educators in my estate. esp the younger ones.

    for landed, most of the senior teachers are staying on landed.
    ... teachers' estate?

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Komo
    ... teachers' estate?
    those are not senior teachers. those are retired teachers.

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni
    I know a few senior teachers, and they are indeed living on landed properties. One of them is aiming for second landed. But what they earn is only part of the picture. Some of them do not have time to spend the money, especially if they are at the family building stage. Plus canteen food etc. So not surprising that what they earned are saved up.
    Many of their landed properties are perhaps pass down by their parents, or they bought it many donkeys years ago. And many of them could be spinster too.

  22. #22
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    actually with the ridicules price today, investing in landed property in Singapore just doesnt make anymore sense.

    Imagine cost of investment at >$1000psf with rental rate of <$2psf. After factoring the interest and cost of up keeping property, what do you have left?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    actually with the ridicules price today, investing in landed property in Singapore just doesnt make anymore sense.

    Imagine cost of investment at >$1000psf with rental rate of <$2psf. After factoring the interest and cost of up keeping property, what do you have left?
    interesting. How much cost is involved in landed for maintainence.

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    actually with the ridicules price today, investing in landed property in Singapore just doesnt make anymore sense.

    Imagine cost of investment at >$1000psf with rental rate of <$2psf. After factoring the interest and cost of up keeping property, what do you have left?
    The rental is probably not enough to spruce up the place with some minor reno every five years.

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    I thought landed was never for investment? For own stay, because the yields are super low and high maintenance (in terms of effort and to some extent, cash).

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    Quote Originally Posted by silver023
    I thought landed was never for investment? For own stay, because the yields are super low and high maintenance (in terms of effort and to some extent, cash).
    Agree....it is still more for own stay...

    Hdb has the best rental yield and landed has the worst I think...

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    Aiyah...now I know why bj21 so negative on landed and post such a msg and even post this letter which probly sent to gahment....underlying motivation - talk down landed price....

    You also see him trying to talk up condo prices (see his other thread on QE3 should bring up condo prices) which means he is long condo and have ZERO landed (probly want sto sell off his condo and buy landed....)

    He bought a bungalow in the past as well as a landed house in coronation in 1994 for only $3m (see his pic on top of this thread) and forced to sell too early..

    Now suffering from seller's remorse....

    Moral of story....HOLD onto yr landed !!!

    Quote Originally Posted by blackjack21trader
    dear all ,

    i feel exactly like you guys. i also think the prices are really sky high. It is time we bring those landed owners back to Planet Earth. I was twice a landed owner and really regret selling them due to financial circumstances forced upon me. I guess that is life. At the prices currently, I cannot even afford a good terrace in good location !

    i strongly believe that if we stand together as one, we can make the landed prices more affordable. we should totally keep ourselves blind on all landed adverts. make no telephone enquiries to them. hopefully we will stand a chance for our next upgrade to a landed lor.

    do not let the landed developers see us forumers no up la !!!


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    ah so desu ka.....

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    Quote Originally Posted by equalizer
    Aiyah...now I know why bj21 so negative on landed and post such a msg and even post this letter which probly sent to gahment....underlying motivation - talk down landed price....

    You also see him trying to talk up condo prices (see his other thread on QE3 should bring up condo prices) which means he is long condo and have ZERO landed (probly want sto sell off his condo and buy landed....)

    He bought a bungalow in the past as well as a landed house in coronation in 1994 for only $3m (see his pic on top of this thread) and forced to sell too early..

    Now suffering from seller's remorse....

    Moral of story....HOLD onto yr landed !!!
    Spot on bro

  30. #30
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    Still remember in the 80s. President Gardens big landed, Fudu Park, Wellington Gardens all inter terrace 4xxk only....

    Now 4xxk can only buy the smallest MM in ulu areas.

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