Singapore's ideal population size? We can afford six million, says PM Lee

**leesg123** · 23-09-12, 08:08

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/singapore-s...ys-pm-lee.html

Six million.

That's the total number of people Singapore can afford to accomodate in the near future, says Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong as quoted by Channel NewsAsia.

Responding to a question from the host during a recorded panel discussion on MediaCorp, PM Lee said, "It's very hard to give a concrete figure, because the situation is evolving. We're gradually increasing our land area, and if we rebuild our older towns,then we can accommodate more people."

"Today our population is over 5 million. In the future, 6 million or so should not be a problem. Beyond that, we'll have to think more carefully," Mr Lee added.

He was responding to a question by host Chun Guek Lay who had asked what was Singapore's ideal population target.

As of December last year, Singapore's population stood at 5.26 million.

Singapore's ideal population size has been a bone of contention in recent years as the country struggles to cope with the influx of foreigners and a record low birth rate.

**leesg123** · 23-09-12, 08:12

There you are, the boss has spoken. We still can add about 800k new citizens/PR.

Assuming family size of 3: 266 666 houses needed
Assuming family size of 4: 200 000 houses needed

So are we going to be over-supply of housing in 2015 or not? More $1m HDB coming soon! Maybe $1.5m is around the corner. This could translate to mass market OCR condo being priced at $1500 psf and above (non-mm units of course, cos mm units will be priced at $2000 psf and above for mass market condo).

**Allthepies** · 23-09-12, 08:54

wow, wat r we waiting for? hoot ah buy more properties and related stuffs! huat ah! those who looking for home stay also dont worry, lots of good, big and cheap BTO for u unless u r so status conscious! so all happy and huat

**insigina** · 23-09-12, 09:35

The bidding for land banks (enbloc, GLS) all going to be very aggressive for the next 2 to 3 years, increased building costs, inflation, etc all point to super high psf.
The thing about a statement like this is developers and investors the world over are going to pour money in here...darn the 10% ABSD for foreigners all of a sudden look cheap!

**Kanarazu** · 23-09-12, 09:47

Originally Posted by insigina

The bidding for land banks (enbloc, GLS) all going to be very aggressive for the next 2 to 3 years, increased building costs, inflation, etc all point to super high psf.
The thing about a statement like this is developers and investors the world over are going to pour money in here...darn the 10% ABSD for foreigners all of a sudden look cheap!

Yep. USD had depreciated 8.4% against SGD in the last 1 year, the 10% ABSD is nothing for someone looking to park the money in a safe haven.

**minority** · 23-09-12, 09:54

Good means wont crash!

**lajia** · 23-09-12, 10:00

Ya, the calculation is quite logical and it depends on the timeframe he is talking about as well. Assuming for the next five yrs with gradual increase of 40k units required (160k ppl coming in each yr). Even if u stretch to 10 yrs with 20k units required for the new immigrants, there shouldn't be any over supply...

Property should be steadily moving up, I think the key is to maintain the gradual increase, soft landing...

Originally Posted by leesg123

There you are, the boss has spoken. We still can add about 800k new citizens/PR.

Assuming family size of 3: 266 666 houses needed
Assuming family size of 4: 200 000 houses needed

So are we going to be over-supply of housing in 2015 or not? More $1m HDB coming soon! Maybe $1.5m is around the corner. This could translate to mass market OCR condo being priced at $1500 psf and above (non-mm units of course, cos mm units will be priced at $2000 psf and above for mass market condo).

**phantom_opera** · 23-09-12, 10:06

Rule II of phantom: each 100k extra productive population will boost psf by 100psf, 400k extra 400psf, don't u see OCR psf rises from 800 to 1200psf liao

**DC33_2008** · 23-09-12, 10:08

There is still a floating population to be added to it.

Originally Posted by leesg123

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/singapore-s...ys-pm-lee.html

Six million.

That's the total number of people Singapore can afford to accomodate in the near future, says Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong as quoted by Channel NewsAsia.

Responding to a question from the host during a recorded panel discussion on MediaCorp, PM Lee said, "It's very hard to give a concrete figure, because the situation is evolving. We're gradually increasing our land area, and if we rebuild our older towns,then we can accommodate more people."

"Today our population is over 5 million. In the future, 6 million or so should not be a problem. Beyond that, we'll have to think more carefully," Mr Lee added.

He was responding to a question by host Chun Guek Lay who had asked what was Singapore's ideal population target.

As of December last year, Singapore's population stood at 5.26 million.

Singapore's ideal population size has been a bone of contention in recent years as the country struggles to cope with the influx of foreigners and a record low birth rate.

**radha08** · 23-09-12, 10:18

Yes we are NO 1 again...

http://www.tremeritus.com/2010/07/22...-in-the-world/

**Allthepies** · 23-09-12, 11:09

Originally Posted by radha08

Yes we are NO 1 again...

http://www.tremeritus.com/2010/07/22...-in-the-world/

based on this crapy report, Singapore can only have 40,000 population

so we can start killing Singaporeans for the greater good of Singapore... better quickly change ur citizenship or vote wisely (don't vote for the party who put up this crapy report) unless u want to be slaughtered...

**Laguna** · 23-09-12, 11:14

That's the total number of people Singapore can afford to accomodate in the near future, says Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong as quoted by Channel NewsAsia.

These are the two most important words : NEAR FUTURE.

If u see the voting in yahoo, majority are ANGRY??? But I voted "HAPPY". This was the first word my girl learnt when she was only 13 months old....

**blackapple** · 23-09-12, 11:17

Originally Posted by leesg123

There you are, the boss has spoken. We still can add about 800k new citizens/PR.

Assuming family size of 3: 266 666 houses needed
Assuming family size of 4: 200 000 houses needed

5.2 million, the government round off to 5 million.
Does 6 million population mean 6.99 million or just 6 million ?

**UltimateAro888** · 23-09-12, 11:19

With influx of these people, they will content with local for job opportunities. I will reckoned most will be professional..

A lot of mnc are already in process of cutting, retrenching people. There is already a pool of local talents looking for jobs..with these influx, wouldn't it put pressure on existing job market driving investment downwards?

Job stability will impact investment in property mkt. But, some of enough liquidity may also turn to investment of additional property to collect income?

Food for thought whether thus effect is positive or negative..

**lajia** · 23-09-12, 11:39

I take it as positive. It is a chicken and egg issue. The gatekeeper are smarter now, they know what to do....when economy starts to turn and u have a tight labour market, that would also impact the growth...

we are still very much in a crunch in the labour market even though the outlook is not very good. And this cloudy outlook has been there for a few years and likely it will drag on. So, either they let in more ppl with higher salary scale (professionals), who can easily afford to buy house here, or they let in more ppl mid to lower range salary scale, who are likely to rent a unit here, both are good for the property market. Whether it will impact the job market depends on how they do the filtering...

Originally Posted by UltimateAro888

With influx of these people, they will content with local for job opportunities. I will reckoned most will be professional..

A lot of mnc are already in process of cutting, retrenching people. There is already a pool of local talents looking for jobs..with these influx, wouldn't it put pressure on existing job market driving investment downwards?

Job stability will impact investment in property mkt. But, some of enough liquidity may also turn to investment of additional property to collect income?

Food for thought whether thus effect is positive or negative..

**carbuncle** · 23-09-12, 12:05

whatever the policy may be, as long as u r on the boat (Noah's ark) u will HUAT!

**teddybear** · 23-09-12, 12:51

A permanent long term goal they should focus on is 12m population by fully utilizing all the islands around Singapore, including Pulau Tekong & Pulau Ubin, Lim Chu Kang, and Simpang.

Originally Posted by leesg123

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/singapore-s...ys-pm-lee.html

Six million.

That's the total number of people Singapore can afford to accomodate in the near future, says Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong as quoted by Channel NewsAsia.

Responding to a question from the host during a recorded panel discussion on MediaCorp, PM Lee said, "It's very hard to give a concrete figure, because the situation is evolving. We're gradually increasing our land area, and if we rebuild our older towns,then we can accommodate more people."

"Today our population is over 5 million. In the future, 6 million or so should not be a problem. Beyond that, we'll have to think more carefully," Mr Lee added.

He was responding to a question by host Chun Guek Lay who had asked what was Singapore's ideal population target.

As of December last year, Singapore's population stood at 5.26 million.

Singapore's ideal population size has been a bone of contention in recent years as the country struggles to cope with the influx of foreigners and a record low birth rate.

**Laguna** · 23-09-12, 13:00

Originally Posted by teddybear

A permanent long term goal they should focus on is 12m population by fully utilizing all the islands around Singapore, including Pulau Tekong & Pulau Ubin, Lim Chu Kang, and Simpang.

I think, if that happens, I will stay at home everyday and dare not go out....everywhere is crowded

**focus** · 23-09-12, 13:19

Originally Posted by leesg123

There you are, the boss has spoken. We still can add about 800k new citizens/PR.

Assuming family size of 3: 266 666 houses needed
Assuming family size of 4: 200 000 houses needed

So are we going to be over-supply of housing in 2015 or not? More $1m HDB coming soon! Maybe $1.5m is around the corner. This could translate to mass market OCR condo being priced at $1500 psf and above (non-mm units of course, cos mm units will be priced at $2000 psf and above for mass market condo).

Is the 800k referring to new citizens/PR? or like the current mix of 75% Work-permits and 10% S-pass and 15% EPs. If that's the case.. then it will be..

800k * 10% = 80k S-pass
800k * 15% = 120k EPs

So S-pass usually 4 to a unit = 80k/4 = 20k units
EPs usually 2 to a unit = 120k/2 = 60k units.

Total needed is 80k units in the NEAR FUTURE, Not next year or the year after. But 80k spread over say 5yrs = 16k units per year of new demand.

**Laguna** · 23-09-12, 13:27

I think, this round, Govt is going to be very selective in bringing in high value add...

**minority** · 23-09-12, 13:42

Originally Posted by radha08

Yes we are NO 1 again...

http://www.tremeritus.com/2010/07/22...-in-the-world/

Well we choose wat we want to see. do you feel as crowded in Singapore or in hongkong? So I wont trust these online stuff much.. they are interest is to sensationalize articles. why? they get paid by views for the adverts.

**minority** · 23-09-12, 13:44

Originally Posted by blackapple

5.2 million, the government round off to 5 million.
Does 6 million population mean 6.99 million or just 6 million ?

If we have 6M people would also means Singapore is a vibrant city thats why people want to come here. Anyone here would like to stay in Brunei?

**minority** · 23-09-12, 13:51

Originally Posted by UltimateAro888

With influx of these people, they will content with local for job opportunities. I will reckoned most will be professional..

A lot of mnc are already in process of cutting, retrenching people. There is already a pool of local talents looking for jobs..with these influx, wouldn't it put pressure on existing job market driving investment downwards?

Job stability will impact investment in property mkt. But, some of enough liquidity may also turn to investment of additional property to collect income?

Food for thought whether thus effect is positive or negative..

Its interesting some time (abt 2yrs) back I have a friend who argued that all this influx of cheap labour is taking Singaporean job. Well the people have spoken the S-Pass and EP have been revised to 4K.

So Now MNC move some of the operation to Malaysia where they hire cheaper. Nett effect MNC move out well yes less FT here but also some Singaporean jobs are lost. Unlikly these MNC will relocate back to Singapore as the cost no long make sense here.

Why? Coz it just business if u have a business to run n ur budget is $3K a head. where u choose to locate ur business will depend on the cost of labour and infra.

Dont go down the road like Japan did. Keep a open mind. If the MNC comes it create jobs for Singaporean n with it come FT I dont see wats the harm. Win Win. I am sure many land lord here are also happy campers becoz of that too.

**minority** · 23-09-12, 14:16

Originally Posted by Laguna

I think, if that happens, I will stay at home everyday and dare not go out....everywhere is crowded

Well if the city is vibrant

if u take the population and land ratio. comparing Manhattan to Singapore. 12M is abt right ratio.

But much said not everyone like to live in Manhattan.
But if Singapore can be come like Manhattan we would be a interesting place to be.

**chestnut** · 23-09-12, 15:15

2012 numbers will be interesting. I really want to see the population growth again. BTW, I will be making my move to get another property within 1 month. Now sourcing around.

**insigina** · 23-09-12, 16:27

Why do you think the govt announcing new mrt lines left, right, centre and NS line, 800 buses, GLS etc. The country is being primed to welcome another 700+k soon. All this new investment not entirely meant for the current lot of people only.

**Ringo33** · 23-09-12, 17:45

Originally Posted by insigina

Why do you think the govt announcing new mrt lines left, right, centre and NS line, 800 buses, GLS etc. The country is being primed to welcome another 700+k soon. All this new investment not entirely meant for the current lot of people only.

There are many sign that is pointing towards that. If you start to see PUB awarding major sewage contracts for greenfield land, that means, more land is going to be use for homes.

**minority** · 23-09-12, 17:48

Originally Posted by Ringo33

There are many sign that is pointing towards that. If you start to see PUB awarding major sewage contracts for greenfield land, that means, more land is going to be use for homes.

Well could also be to build to stabilize. Demand curently. Anyway he say can support 6m never say when will hit 6m. Can be 10yr can be 20yrs

**insigina** · 23-09-12, 18:15

Originally Posted by minority

Well could also be to build to stabilize. Demand curently. Anyway he say can support 6m never say when will hit 6m. Can be 10yr can be 20yrs

Cannot be over 10 years. We are such an impatient nation! The sooner the better mentality. My guess the 6M target will be breached in 5 to 7 years. That's when the stars are all aligned, infrastructure wise.

**leesg123** · 23-09-12, 18:27

Originally Posted by insigina

Cannot be over 10 years. We are such an impatient nation! The sooner the better mentality. My guess the 6M target will be breached in 5 to 7 years. That's when the stars are all aligned, infrastructure wise.

Looking at the due completion for downtown line and tsl, tat should give some indication. About slightly less than 10yrs.

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