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Thread: BOND THREAD

  1. #271
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    Thanks cbsh38584!
    You are really one of the bond guru!
    I will need to sit down and digest the info slowly.

    You got me interested in bonds a few months ago when you posted something on it.
    Although I have not invested in any yet, at least I have gained some knowledge.
    Last edited by buttercarp; 12-12-12 at 11:12.

  2. #272
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    The yield of the high yield bond has been coming down in the last few months......

  3. #273
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    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584
    I have ABN , Banyan Tree , OUE , Lippomall , Shui On , Noble,Olam, Petra Food ,Hutchison, Cheung kong, Citi pacific etc etc. LTV ave 58%.
    Coupon est 180k to 200k/yr after deducting loan interest rate & custodian fee. 80% are straight bond. The rest are perp bond.

    Bank takes 0.2bps. Need to monitor closely the sign of raising rate. Will likely to sell some early 2014.
    ya, I recalled u have a big collection of bonds, and managed to find this.

    How is your reading of OLAM?

  4. #274
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    wa.
    cbsh38584 is hardcore bond player!
    I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.” - Robert Frost quotes (American poet, 1874-1963)

  5. #275
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    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna
    ya, I recalled u have a big collection of bonds, and managed to find this.

    How is your reading of OLAM?
    I have a total of 14 bond which amt to S$3.5m. Muddy water attacked 2 of my bond , Evergrande (4th largest Chinese developer) & OLAM.

    Evergrande Bond 7.5% RMB Due 19th Jan14 bought @97.
    ============================================
    I borrowed USD to convert to RMB @6.54 to buy Evergrande RMB bond in Jan 2011. Muddy water issued a warning in Jun12 on possible accounting fraud. The bond immediately fall to below 80. It has now recovered to 99.

    Evergrande bond in USD also dropped to 80+. The price is now trading @106+.


    OLAM USD 5.75% due 2017.
    ==================
    Muddy water this time round decided to attack SGX listed stock, OLAM. The OLAM USD bond dropped to 85. I think it has now recovered to above 90.
    If anybody will want to take calculated risk. The USD bond 5.75% is preferred. It is not a recommendation. Buy at your own risk.


    I have another 2 high yield SGD corporate Chinese developer bond.
    *Shui ON 8% due 2015. Now trading @103.
    *China central real estate 10.75% due 2017. Now trading@106.

    So far doing fine & hopefully by 2015 or 2016, I will trim down my bond holdings due to interest rate risk.

    rdgs,
    Victor

  6. #276
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    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna
    ya, I recalled u have a big collection of bonds, and managed to find this.

    How is your reading of OLAM?
    If OLAM will to default. It will be a chain or reaction.

    *Noble & Willmar will be sell off as it is a commodity related.
    *Those companes who has high borrowing will be attacked like Swifer etc
    *SG banks who lend to Olam will also be affected.
    *Those who use CPF to buy Olam will be affected.
    *Temasek sovereign wealth fund reputation will be affected.

    End of the day, too much at stake to let OLAM default. This is what I think .
    I maybe wrong in my judgement. Take note, I am not a expert in bond as I started bond investing in 2010. Alot of things to learn in bond investing.

    rdgs,
    Victor

  7. #277
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    Thanks for the wonderful info

  8. #278
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    Thanks to TS and Vic. Have been following the thread

  9. #279
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    Got this email from my banker 2 days back. Anyway, this is their takeaway from mgmt meetup. My own gut feel is if I have $250k to spare and taking this type of risk, I would rather go and buy a $500k-$800k condo and wait it out. My risk appetite is not that big on financial instruments that is out of my control. I'd rather risked it on a property.

    _______
    Our team met the management of OLAM yesterday. Among other things, the following issues were discussed and wish to share with you, hopefully to address some of the concerns you may have on its recent headlines:

    1. Why did OLAM announce a bond cum right issue, instead of re-considering/cutting capex for next year

    a. The bond issues was a short term tactical measure designed to rebuild confidence and to end all speculations that OLAM could be running out of funds or liquidity. Even thought this was not the case, the management acknowledged that these things can take its own dynamic and a loss confidence can be very damaging

    b. Board saw an immediate necessity to “bridge the confidence gap”

    c. Temasek has effectively written a ‘put’ on OLAM’s debt

    d. The capex program is under review will be discussed between now and February and changes be done. This is not something which could have been decided over the weekend- nor would such a knee jerk reaction have been either credible or a service to its shareholders and stakeholders. OLAM realizes that as a growing and FCF (free cash flow)-negative company it is vulnerable to these kind of attacks and intends to reduce its vulnerability


    2. Why this complicated exercise to raise cash?

    a. With these 750 mio, OLAM will have no more funding needs well into 2014

    b. The main shareholders (Family, Temasek, Verghese) didn’t want to be diluted – OLAM had committed at the last rights issue to shareholders that no new shares would be issued for 4 years. With the new warrant structure, the new shares will only be exercised in 2016 (keeping that commitment)

    c. Still: the board recognizes the need to treat all shareholders equally (as Temasek had signed its willingness to take up the whole issue), hence the rights that give all shareholders the ability but not the obligation to be on the same footing as Temasek.

    d. The cost of the new bond (IRR 8%) is to put the deal on a commercial basis for Temasek. Temasek is NOT giving free money to OLAM. Temasek will also be taking an additional cut in the underwriting fee for the issue.

    e. The new bonds are coming out at a yield of ~8%, around the current levels for Olam papers. In the short run this does provide a new reference rate for Olam papers)


    3. Leverage

    a. OLAM is having the lowest leverage ratio since listing at the moment

    b. Short term financing is fully collateralized and consists of trade finance for merchandise which is to 80-90% already contracted

    c. OLAM has a 90 days average inventory turn. Per month the company delivers ca. 1.2 Bn SGD of goods, which then settles the lines with banks. In the last few weeks as the crisis has unfolded, lines have been repaid and redrawn with no changes to conditions

    d. No bank has pulled any line or renegotiated the conditions


    4. Rating

    a. Rating has never been necessary, as OLAM as so far addressed pools of funds of investors which know the company well.

    b. Other companies in the same are not rated either (most prominent: Louis Dreyfus)

    c. Singaporean companies issuing bonds seldom get a rating as they are well known within its potential investors


    5. Acquisitions

    a. Sometimes good will is build, but sometimes assets get revalued, namely when company successfully turn around businesses it buys.

    b. MW pictures in the report are misleading and do not depict OLAM assets or operations

    c. Out of 40 acquisitions, 2 didn’t deliver the expected result and where shut down/written down. This has been clearly documented


    6. Dealing with MW

    a. OLAM has being dealing with main stakeholders on a daily basis since the “crisis” started

    b. Main shareholder incl. Temasek and Family have fully supported the company and the rights issue

    c. OLAM will desist from reacting to each and every comment from MW, as the intent is clearly to create panic and the 133 report content very little facts

    d. OLAM is suing MW for slander/libel in Singapore High court. It has evidence that MW has been selling the report to hedge funds already in May. At the same time short positions started to increase. This raises the potential for ‘insider’ trading and market manipulation – given the current investigation into hedge fund activity in NY this is likely to run as well.

    e. MW also deliberately misled public by announcing a 80 pages report and then delivering 1 days later a 133 pages one (manipulation)


    All in all, this was a heavy crisis for OLAM according to CEO Sunny Verghese. The company realizes that as a public company, having a growing profile, complex accounting in different countries and a negative free cash flow, you make yourself vulnerable for short seller like MW. The company will work hard to reduce piece by piece this vulnerability. It will eventually also become FCF(free cash flow) positive earlier than planned (2016) and thus start creating shareholder value. The company has always been and is profitable, running an operating cash flow of 500 Mio SGD per year.

    Some thoughts

    The explanation on why the debt issue cum warrants makes sense to me. if confidence goes, the company goes (especially a leveraged one). At the same time OLAM understand that the markets started to get some issues with its strong and aggressive growth and it complexity. The commitment to reconsider its huge capex is an important step in the right direction.

    The fact that Temasek and Kewalram group supports bond and right issue fully significantly reduces risk for bondholders for at least well into 2014.

    I don’t think the bonds will trade up to the old levels so quickly, as they have to reflect a higher level of risk. The shares are another story and will move in function of how quickly OLAM intends to be profitable. As of this moment too speculative to make a proper assessment


    However, I think the 6% 2018 in SGD (offered at 91 for 8% Yield) could be a good carry for diversified portfolios for the next 12 months, looking for a high yielding bond but for clients who have the risk appetite and believe in the company. The yield offered compensates for the (headline) risks to come

    Happy to discuss in greater details with you at your convenience and appreciate your thoughts you may have/share with me.


    Below are the list of Olam’s outstanding bonds and price indications for your reference:

    CCY Issuer Cpn Maturity Bid YTW Offer O YTW
    SGD OLAM INTERNATIONAL LTD 4.070 12/2/2013 99.10 9.50 100.00 4.01
    SGD OLAM INTERNATIONAL LTD 3.000 25/2/2013 99.00 8.01 100.00 2.97
    SGD OLAM INTERNATIONAL LTD 2.500 6/9/2013 95.50 9.01 97.00 6.78
    SGD OLAM INTERNATIONAL LTD 6.000 10/8/2018 89.50 8.36 91.50 7.89
    SGD OLAM INTERNATIONAL LTD 5.800 17/7/2019 85.65 8.70 87.85 8.22
    SGD OLAM INTERNATIONAL LTD 6.000 25/10/2022 83.65 8.48 85.85 8.11
    SGD OLAM INTERNATIONAL LTD 7.000 Perp 79.15 13.68 82.85 12.35
    USD OLAM INTERNATIONAL LTD 5.750 20/9/2017 89.65 8.43 90.95 8.07
    USD OLAM INTERNATIONAL LTD 7.500 12/8/2020 92.00 8.96 93.50 8.68
    USD OLAM INTERNATIONAL LTD 6.000 15/10/2016 85.50 10.70 87.50 10.00

  10. #280
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    I received an Olam's report after the cash call as follow:

    Short-term debt repayable within 12 months = SGD3.75b
    Repayment on longer-term debt due within 12 months = SGD1.5b
    Total debt repayable within 12 months = SGD5.25b (!!!)
    Total debt = SGD8.35b

    Bond Issue gross proceeds = SGD0.915b
    Bond Issue net proceeds = SGD0.87b

    Did the analyst got it wrong that total debt repayable within 12 months = S$5.25b ???

    So, I checked Muddy Waters report which says:

    We estimate that Olam could have to raise or refinance a total of S$4.6 billion in the next 12 months in order to stay solvent. This is based on conservative assumptions, including that Olam’s borrowing costs do not increase. Olam’s capital structure includes a significant amount of loans and bonds that are due within the next 12 months. As of September 30,
    2012, Olam had S$1.38 billion in cash and short-term fixed deposits net of overdrafts, and S$3.75 billion in borrowings due within the next 12 months.


    Conclusion? - Risk too high for my comfort.

    Quote Originally Posted by focus
    Got this email from my banker 2 days back. Anyway, this is their takeaway from mgmt meetup. My own gut feel is if I have $250k to spare and taking this type of risk, I would rather go and buy a $500k-$800k condo and wait it out. My risk appetite is not that big on financial instruments that is out of my control. I'd rather risked it on a property.

    _______
    Our team met the management of OLAM yesterday. Among other things, the following issues were discussed and wish to share with you, hopefully to address some of the concerns you may have on its recent headlines:

    1. Why did OLAM announce a bond cum right issue, instead of re-considering/cutting capex for next year

    a. The bond issues was a short term tactical measure designed to rebuild confidence and to end all speculations that OLAM could be running out of funds or liquidity. Even thought this was not the case, the management acknowledged that these things can take its own dynamic and a loss confidence can be very damaging

    b. Board saw an immediate necessity to “bridge the confidence gap”

    c. Temasek has effectively written a ‘put’ on OLAM’s debt

    d. The capex program is under review will be discussed between now and February and changes be done. This is not something which could have been decided over the weekend- nor would such a knee jerk reaction have been either credible or a service to its shareholders and stakeholders. OLAM realizes that as a growing and FCF (free cash flow)-negative company it is vulnerable to these kind of attacks and intends to reduce its vulnerability


    2. Why this complicated exercise to raise cash?

    a. With these 750 mio, OLAM will have no more funding needs well into 2014

    b. The main shareholders (Family, Temasek, Verghese) didn’t want to be diluted – OLAM had committed at the last rights issue to shareholders that no new shares would be issued for 4 years. With the new warrant structure, the new shares will only be exercised in 2016 (keeping that commitment)

    c. Still: the board recognizes the need to treat all shareholders equally (as Temasek had signed its willingness to take up the whole issue), hence the rights that give all shareholders the ability but not the obligation to be on the same footing as Temasek.

    d. The cost of the new bond (IRR 8%) is to put the deal on a commercial basis for Temasek. Temasek is NOT giving free money to OLAM. Temasek will also be taking an additional cut in the underwriting fee for the issue.

    e. The new bonds are coming out at a yield of ~8%, around the current levels for Olam papers. In the short run this does provide a new reference rate for Olam papers)


    3. Leverage

    a. OLAM is having the lowest leverage ratio since listing at the moment

    b. Short term financing is fully collateralized and consists of trade finance for merchandise which is to 80-90% already contracted

    c. OLAM has a 90 days average inventory turn. Per month the company delivers ca. 1.2 Bn SGD of goods, which then settles the lines with banks. In the last few weeks as the crisis has unfolded, lines have been repaid and redrawn with no changes to conditions

    d. No bank has pulled any line or renegotiated the conditions


    4. Rating

    a. Rating has never been necessary, as OLAM as so far addressed pools of funds of investors which know the company well.

    b. Other companies in the same are not rated either (most prominent: Louis Dreyfus)

    c. Singaporean companies issuing bonds seldom get a rating as they are well known within its potential investors


    5. Acquisitions

    a. Sometimes good will is build, but sometimes assets get revalued, namely when company successfully turn around businesses it buys.

    b. MW pictures in the report are misleading and do not depict OLAM assets or operations

    c. Out of 40 acquisitions, 2 didn’t deliver the expected result and where shut down/written down. This has been clearly documented


    6. Dealing with MW

    a. OLAM has being dealing with main stakeholders on a daily basis since the “crisis” started

    b. Main shareholder incl. Temasek and Family have fully supported the company and the rights issue

    c. OLAM will desist from reacting to each and every comment from MW, as the intent is clearly to create panic and the 133 report content very little facts

    d. OLAM is suing MW for slander/libel in Singapore High court. It has evidence that MW has been selling the report to hedge funds already in May. At the same time short positions started to increase. This raises the potential for ‘insider’ trading and market manipulation – given the current investigation into hedge fund activity in NY this is likely to run as well.

    e. MW also deliberately misled public by announcing a 80 pages report and then delivering 1 days later a 133 pages one (manipulation)


    All in all, this was a heavy crisis for OLAM according to CEO Sunny Verghese. The company realizes that as a public company, having a growing profile, complex accounting in different countries and a negative free cash flow, you make yourself vulnerable for short seller like MW. The company will work hard to reduce piece by piece this vulnerability. It will eventually also become FCF(free cash flow) positive earlier than planned (2016) and thus start creating shareholder value. The company has always been and is profitable, running an operating cash flow of 500 Mio SGD per year.

    Some thoughts

    The explanation on why the debt issue cum warrants makes sense to me. if confidence goes, the company goes (especially a leveraged one). At the same time OLAM understand that the markets started to get some issues with its strong and aggressive growth and it complexity. The commitment to reconsider its huge capex is an important step in the right direction.

    The fact that Temasek and Kewalram group supports bond and right issue fully significantly reduces risk for bondholders for at least well into 2014.

    I don’t think the bonds will trade up to the old levels so quickly, as they have to reflect a higher level of risk. The shares are another story and will move in function of how quickly OLAM intends to be profitable. As of this moment too speculative to make a proper assessment


    However, I think the 6% 2018 in SGD (offered at 91 for 8% Yield) could be a good carry for diversified portfolios for the next 12 months, looking for a high yielding bond but for clients who have the risk appetite and believe in the company. The yield offered compensates for the (headline) risks to come

    Happy to discuss in greater details with you at your convenience and appreciate your thoughts you may have/share with me.


    Below are the list of Olam’s outstanding bonds and price indications for your reference:

    CCY Issuer Cpn Maturity Bid YTW Offer O YTW
    SGD OLAM INTERNATIONAL LTD 4.070 12/2/2013 99.10 9.50 100.00 4.01
    SGD OLAM INTERNATIONAL LTD 3.000 25/2/2013 99.00 8.01 100.00 2.97
    SGD OLAM INTERNATIONAL LTD 2.500 6/9/2013 95.50 9.01 97.00 6.78
    SGD OLAM INTERNATIONAL LTD 6.000 10/8/2018 89.50 8.36 91.50 7.89
    SGD OLAM INTERNATIONAL LTD 5.800 17/7/2019 85.65 8.70 87.85 8.22
    SGD OLAM INTERNATIONAL LTD 6.000 25/10/2022 83.65 8.48 85.85 8.11
    SGD OLAM INTERNATIONAL LTD 7.000 Perp 79.15 13.68 82.85 12.35
    USD OLAM INTERNATIONAL LTD 5.750 20/9/2017 89.65 8.43 90.95 8.07
    USD OLAM INTERNATIONAL LTD 7.500 12/8/2020 92.00 8.96 93.50 8.68
    USD OLAM INTERNATIONAL LTD 6.000 15/10/2016 85.50 10.70 87.50 10.00

  11. #281
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    Maybe Olam should just do a straight equity raise like what ex-Temasek chap Michael Dee has suggested.

  12. #282
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    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584
    If OLAM will to default. It will be a chain or reaction.

    *Noble & Willmar will be sell off as it is a commodity related.
    *Those companes who has high borrowing will be attacked like Swifer etc
    *SG banks who lend to Olam will also be affected.
    *Those who use CPF to buy Olam will be affected.
    *Temasek sovereign wealth fund reputation will be affected.

    End of the day, too much at stake to let OLAM default. This is what I think .
    I maybe wrong in my judgement. Take note, I am not a expert in bond as I started bond investing in 2010. Alot of things to learn in bond investing.

    rdgs,
    Victor
    thanks for the analysis.
    indeed a heavy chain lightning..

    but how can you cover a blackhole?
    where do you get $4-5billion out of the blue?
    I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.” - Robert Frost quotes (American poet, 1874-1963)

  13. #283
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    Quote Originally Posted by hanafi_d2000
    Maybe Olam should just do a straight equity raise like what ex-Temasek chap Michael Dee has suggested.
    straight equity is impossible
    1. in term of security, equity has none!
    2. dilution
    3. no income to the equity holders.

    So, if there is an under-subscription of equity, OLAM will be in deep trouble.

  14. #284
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    Quote Originally Posted by roly8
    wa.
    cbsh38584 is hardcore bond player!
    I am not a hardcore bond investor. I am more of a risk taker buying derivative product CALLED ACCUMULATOR (I KILL U LATER).- A deep discounted share purchase 1 year programme. This product lets investors\buy shares At a market discount. If the price rises by more than a set %, the contract ends & the investor takes a profit.

    In Nov 2006 to Jan 2008, I did a total of 22 ACCUMULATOR by leveraging. Just need US$100k cash avail to do a US$1m accumulator product. The discount share purchase can be as high as 30%. I did most HK stk. It is such a easy money to make in 06/07. Today buy, next day knock.& sell. Profit S$30k. I make a profit of S$400k plus accumulated from 06/07.


    But it was early Mar 2008, sub-prime mortgage issues surfaced out more. Prominently. I was on holiday in Apr08, My RM informed me there is a margin call & need to top up >US$100k. I told her I do not have the cash avail ( I do hv).. Spoil my holiday trip. When I am back for holiday, I saw on the news from Dr Tony Tan warning that the world could be facing its worst recession in 30 years and that financial markets would be highly volatile. I immediately, sell all my shares .As for my 3 ACCUMULATORS (Zijin, Comfortdelgro, CNNOC - US$6m) which is still running, Every settlement calendar period, I sold at a loss. Except for CNNOC, I make a small gain. Luckily, CNOOC get knock-out & contract end. Left 2 more to go.(Zijin /Comfortdelgro). In Sept 2008, the world stock mkt collaspe.
    My buy price for Zijin (contract end Jan13) is HK$7.9. It dropped to HK$1.39. Comfordelgro (contract end Nov08) buy price is S$1.61. It drop to $1. Real Cut loss a total of $600k.. There is another PAPER loss of est $700M. I am lucky that , my PAPER loss become breakeven as US FED & the whole start to print money.
     

    I am lucky to have listen to DR Tony Tan warning & also have the courage to CUT LOSS I am able to survive the once in a century crisis. I screwed My relationship manager when he asked me whether I would like to do ACCUMULATOR again in this market condition Apr2008. LaterIn 2009, He was asked to resign as many of his clients lost TONS of money due to his ill advice.

    In 2010/2011, I still do ACCUMULATOR (Min now S$500k) product but at a smaller scale (S$250k) & share with others & friend. . So far Idid 5 Accumulator on Capland (twice), Shanghia A50 & Citigroup (twice). All get knock out. . In 2011, the interest in ACCUMULATOR dropped almost to zero as the market is too volatile. Nowaday,I usually do ACCUMULATOR when there is FEAR in the market. But when there is fear in the market, I cant find people to share with me to launch (Min$500k) it. In the end I give up, I switch to bond after I learn from a bond expertise how he uses leveraging in bond to get a better return. So I switch to Bond more aggressively in 2011.
    Today strait times news 
    ===============
    “An (Taiwaness Scientist) investor lost US$49 million in buying 34 derivatives products (ACCUMULATOR)\through a bank.”through a bank which managed his wealth will get all monies back after SG high court held the bank had breached its duty of care in advising him.. His ACCUMUALTOR share counter are mostly US financial stock which why he lost US$49M.


    rdgs,
    Victor

  15. #285
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    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584
    In 2010/2011, I still do ACCUMULATOR (Min now S$500k) product but at a smaller scale (S$250k) & share with others & friend. . So far Idid 5 Accumulator on Capland (twice), Shanghia A50 & Citigroup (twice). All get knock out. . In 2011, the interest in ACCUMULATOR dropped almost to zero as the market is too volatile. Nowaday,I usually do ACCUMULATOR when there is FEAR in the market. But when there is fear in the market, I cant find people to share with me to launch (Min$500k) it. In the end I give up, I switch to bond after I learn from a bond expertise how he uses leveraging in bond to get a better return. So I switch to Bond more aggressively in 2011.
    rdgs,
    Victor
    [/SIZE]
    Good sharing on the I kill you later.
    So who is the bond expert? Maybe can introduce him to this forum to share. If not , I will continue to hear your sharing

  16. #286
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    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584

    My buy price for Zijin (contract end Jan13) is HK$7.9. It dropped to HK$1.39. Comfordelgro (contract end Nov08) buy price is S$1.61. It drop to $1. Real Cut loss a total of $600k.. There is another PAPER loss of est $700M. I am lucky that , my PAPER loss become breakeven as US FED & the whole start to print money.
     

    In the end I give up, I switch to bond after I learn from a bond expertise how he uses leveraging in bond to get a better return. So I switch to Bond more aggressively in 2011.


    rdgs,
    Victor


    $700M or $700K? did you top up?

    I KILL YOU LATER is a very high risk trade and looked like u enjoying much on the knock out.

    It sounds like Equity Link Note, which I avoid totally.

    So your LTV is 50%+ and what is the cost of the leverage for u?

  17. #287
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    beware of 10-30y UST movement in the next 1-2 weeks ...... this 6.5% targeting by Bernanke is risky ... next unemployment # might trigger a huge sell off
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  18. #288
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    Quote Originally Posted by focus
    Good sharing on the I kill you later.
    So who is the bond expert? Maybe can introduce him to this forum to share. If not , I will continue to hear your sharing
    He managed fixed income fund. I dont think he has the time to share it here. If I meet him in the next investment seminar, I will ask for his name card again (I hv misplaced his name card). He has India bond, European bond , China developer etc etc. He leverage to the max. I only know that his profit in FIXED income is $300k+.

    FYI, he immediately cut loss for OLAM USD bond after Muddy water issues a warning on OLAM financial health. But some high risker bought OLAM bond during this crisis.

    U are knowledgable person. But because you want to sleep well at night. U prefer to play safe. U will be very safe if another Lehman type crisis come again. It is a matter of when. As for me, I need to worry when is the next big crisis come. I hope there is a warning sign ahead (Like Dr tony Tan warning message) to prone me to reduce my leveraging fast.

    rdgs,
    Victor

  19. #289
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    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna
    $700M or $700K? did you top up?

    I KILL YOU LATER is a very high risk trade and looked like u enjoying much on the knock out.

    It sounds like Equity Link Note, which I avoid totally.

    So your LTV is 50%+ and what is the cost of the leverage for u?
    Correction.
    $700k.
    Zijin mining conract end Jan 2009.

    I was in a depression in early 2009.But I manage to ride through this very difficult time. I saw light at the end of the tunnel when US FED & the world start printing $$$. I was so so so lucky I survived once in a century crisis with min losses & become much stronger.

    I learnt from my lesson never trust GOLDMAN SACH research team or all big banks research team, my banker recommendation (always get a 2nd opinion), CNBC news etc.

    My ave BOND LTV is 58% base on my 14 bonds holding. Because I am quite a active player. I am given a prefer rate (1.05% SGD & USD). I occassionally do PCI or ELN (do ELN only when there is fear in the mkt) just to support my RM. The bank is flooded with so much cash. I already borrowed >S$1.5m at that time. Yet I am given another US$1.5m to apply for ABN USD 6.25% IPO bond. So I used it & was allocated US$300k. The ABN 6.25% bond trading @ 106.

    I worry everyday when is the next lehman crsis going to come. Keep searching , checking , asking etc when it is going to come. I do hope I have enough warning ahead to reduce my leveraging. Hopefully, Our President TONY Tan can give warning again if he see it coming.

    rdgs,
    Vic

  20. #290
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    3,812

    Default

    Bro, serious question... Any reason why you taking all this risk???? To accumulate a lot of profit and retire early???




    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584
    Correction.
    $700k.
    Zijin mining conract end Jan 2009.

    I was in a depression in early 2009.But I manage to ride through this very difficult time. I saw light at the end of the tunnel when US FED & the world start printing $$$. I was so so so lucky I survived once in a century crisis with min losses & become much stronger.

    I learnt from my lesson never trust GOLDMAN SACH research team or all big banks research team, my banker recommendation (always get a 2nd opinion), CNBC news etc.

    My ave BOND LTV is 58% base on my 14 bonds holding. Because I am quite a active player. I am given a prefer rate (1.05% SGD & USD). I occassionally do PCI or ELN (do ELN only when there is fear in the mkt) just to support my RM. The bank is flooded with so much cash. I already borrowed >S$1.5m at that time. Yet I am given another US$1.5m to apply for ABN USD 6.25% IPO bond. So I used it & was allocated US$300k. The ABN 6.25% bond trading @ 106.

    I worry everyday when is the next lehman crsis going to come. Keep searching , checking , asking etc when it is going to come. I do hope I have enough warning ahead to reduce my leveraging. Hopefully, Our President TONY Tan can give warning again if he see it coming.

    rdgs,
    Vic

  21. #291
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Posts
    6,003

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584
    Correction.
    $700k.
    Zijin mining conract end Jan 2009.

    I was in a depression in early 2009.But I manage to ride through this very difficult time. I saw light at the end of the tunnel when US FED & the world start printing $$$. I was so so so lucky I survived once in a century crisis with min losses & become much stronger.

    I learnt from my lesson never trust GOLDMAN SACH research team or all big banks research team, my banker recommendation (always get a 2nd opinion), CNBC news etc.

    My ave BOND LTV is 58% base on my 14 bonds holding. Because I am quite a active player. I am given a prefer rate (1.05% SGD & USD). I occassionally do PCI or ELN (do ELN only when there is fear in the mkt) just to support my RM. The bank is flooded with so much cash. I already borrowed >S$1.5m at that time. Yet I am given another US$1.5m to apply for ABN USD 6.25% IPO bond. So I used it & was allocated US$300k. The ABN 6.25% bond trading @ 106.

    I worry everyday when is the next lehman crsis going to come. Keep searching , checking , asking etc when it is going to come. I do hope I have enough warning ahead to reduce my leveraging. Hopefully, Our President TONY Tan can give warning again if he see it coming.

    rdgs,
    Vic
    Sounds like casino.

  22. #292
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    1,081

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by hyenergix
    Sounds like casino.
    Stock market is the biggest casino in the world. Bond is less volatile. I did ask my banker to do a "STRESS TEST" on my bond portfolio. In the event of another Lehman type crisis, my bond portfolio will drop 15%. If I leave unused >US$250k margin, there shouldnt be any margin call. But I dont believe the "15%" figure. I need to manage myself carefully.

    During the GREEce crisis in 2011, my bond portfolio drop less than 5%. Capland & capital commercial trust bond drop <2%..

    My relative bought Noble group @US$1.80. Now Noble is trading @US$1.13 and he is bleeding. But I bought Noble perp bond (7.5%) @94. I am making profit 7.5% (coupon)every year.But I hv sold recently @97.8 to reduce my exposure to perp bond. Now trading @97.

    I am using the 2010 to 2014 window opportunities to earn as much as possible by using avail CHEAP money (OTHER people money) to make money.

    rdgs,
    Vic

  23. #293
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Posts
    6,003

    Default

    Too risky for me. I stay w prop n gold. Wish u success.

  24. #294
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    1,763

    Default

    I lost 25% on my janus fund... Never trust rm recommendation again.

  25. #295
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    3,812

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by indomie
    I lost 25% on my janus fund... Never trust rm recommendation again.
    Bro, it is all part of the learning process... You lucky you lost money early...
    Imagine you got a solid RM and things are good... You enter one time - wah shiok !!!, then enter and enter... Then this RM leave, someone else takes over, recommend you and you hoot, big big... Because confidence built up liao mah.... Wah, that time will be blood bath...

    I so happy a 2 of my RM from diff bank made me lose money.... I learnt a lot... I decided - Wah paing, this not your money so no problem for you lah... Now I do my own due diligence... Hahahahaha... At least I lose, it was my own decision.... Hahahahaha
    Try going casino and give 200K to your friend to bet on your behalf.
    Every mistake I made, I happy !!! Because I learnt. But if the lesson was very expensive, than I sad...


  26. #296
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Posts
    2,094

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584
    Stock market is the biggest casino in the world. Bond is less volatile. I did ask my banker to do a "STRESS TEST" on my bond portfolio. In the event of another Lehman type crisis, my bond portfolio will drop 15%. If I leave unused >US$250k margin, there shouldnt be any margin call. But I dont believe the "15%" figure. I need to manage myself carefully.

    During the GREEce crisis in 2011, my bond portfolio drop less than 5%. Capland & capital commercial trust bond drop <2%..

    My relative bought Noble group @US$1.80. Now Noble is trading @US$1.13 and he is bleeding. But I bought Noble perp bond (7.5%) @94. I am making profit 7.5% (coupon)every year.But I hv sold recently @97.8 to reduce my exposure to perp bond. Now trading @97.

    I am using the 2010 to 2014 window opportunities to earn as much as possible by using avail CHEAP money (OTHER people money) to make money.

    rdgs,
    Vic

    Thx for sharing.

    I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.” - Robert Frost quotes (American poet, 1874-1963)

  27. #297
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Posts
    3,943

    Default

    just called Credit Suisse
    min US$2m to open a private banking account...
    now going back to market to source for good deal, after knowing 1.05% available in the market

  28. #298
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    3,812

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna
    just called Credit Suisse
    min US$2m to open a private banking account...
    now going back to market to source for good deal, after knowing 1.05% available in the market
    AUM all raised. Used to be US$1 mil.
    US is lower.
    Only singapore so high.

  29. #299
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    1,763

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by chestnut
    Bro, it is all part of the learning process... You lucky you lost money early...
    Imagine you got a solid RM and things are good... You enter one time - wah shiok !!!, then enter and enter... Then this RM leave, someone else takes over, recommend you and you hoot, big big... Because confidence built up liao mah.... Wah, that time will be blood bath...

    I so happy a 2 of my RM from diff bank made me lose money.... I learnt a lot... I decided - Wah paing, this not your money so no problem for you lah... Now I do my own due diligence... Hahahahaha... At least I lose, it was my own decision.... Hahahahaha
    Try going casino and give 200K to your friend to bet on your behalf.
    Every mistake I made, I happy !!! Because I learnt. But if the lesson was very expensive, than I sad...

    The line dividing investment and gambling can be very thin. U don't become a professional investor (aka hardcore gambler) overnight. They lure u in step by step. First by letting u play with low risk/low return instruments such as dual currency, blue chip bond. As your risk appetite increases, then one day u find a letter in your mailbox from the bank to fill out a form to increase your risk profile. And the rest is history. The bank nowadays happy to pay for billions of dollars in fine for misleading customers into risky investment. No mystery where that money coming from after I read some postings in this forum thread.

  30. #300
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Posts
    8,926

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna
    just called Credit Suisse
    min US$2m to open a private banking account...
    now going back to market to source for good deal, after knowing 1.05% available in the market
    For retail players without leverage:

    For exposure to US, just buy HYG will do

    http://www.google.com/finance?q=hyg&...KDIHIrkkQWn0QE

    or want to get exposure to Asian bonds then buy on SGX

    IS ASIA HYG100S$
    IS ASIA HYG100US$
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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