BOND THREAD

[cbsh38584]

More trouble it seems:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...nto-mover.html

So there is a real risk of doing FCN. I am surprise that FCN/ELN risk level is 5 (10 the highest risk) given by the bank. Those who did ELN/FCN on Suntech solar the capital is going to drop as much as 90%. Even Japan Tokyo electric which consider very safe is also not spared. The price was >JPY 3000. After the nuclear incident. Price is now JPY333.

Do FCN/ELN, I am always worry more on natural disaster which we cant predict. I prefer to do at E-trade platform which allow U to start as min as US$3k. U cant cut loss or take profit as & when U like. Not from the bank.

rdgs,
Vic

[cbsh38584]

GREATER CHINA (USD) BOND INDICATIVE PRICING
================================

http://www.bocionline.com/files/bond...pdates_3en.pdf

My bond portfolio consist of Greater china bond holding. It is about 35% of my total bond holding. Mostly in Chinese developers. High yield high risk.



http://www.fundsupermart.com/main/ad...heetLCP020.pdf
LGlobal Funds - Asia High Yield Bond.
This is just FYI.

rdgs,
Vic

[starrynight]

Today's issuance:

Issuer:
State Bank of India , acting through its London branch
Status:
Fixed Rate, Senior Unsecured Notes
Issue rating:
Baa2 (Stable) / BBB- (Negative) (Moody's / S&P)
Format:
144A / Regulation S
Tenor:
5 years
Issue Size:
USD benchmark
Initial Price Guidance:
T+275 area (~ 0.739+2.75 = 3.489% area)
Change of Control:
At 101% (if government ownership falls below 51%)
Denoms:
US$200k/1k denoms
Listing:
SGX listing,English law
Jt Bookrunners:
BNP Paribas, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, HSBC,J.P. Morgan, SBI Capital Markets
Timing:
As early as today
Risk Rating:
P3 (P1 to P5, P5 being the highest)

[Laguna]

Look at gold. .
Scary. ....

[heroes]

Look at gold. .
Scary. ....

Yeppp..1499 intraday. What is that mean laguna?

[hopeful]

Yeppp..1499 intraday. What is that mean laguna?

somebody is giving us the opportunity to buy physical gold at a discount. forget about 1oz, buy 1kg physical bar at UOB on monday

[Laguna]

Yeppp..1499 intraday. What is that mean laguna?

Look up for central banks and IMF off loading especially for those troubled EU countries.
1520 broke decisively.
Many stops in silver and gold, crude all triggered.
Very tempted.....

[cbsh38584]

UBS bank already know the gold will drop in the next 12 mths when they launched the FCN on Barrick Gold EARLY NOV12.

============================================

ATTRACTIVE AUTOCALL COUPON + DEEP KNOCK IN + CONVERSION
ABX,Barrick Gold (Spot US$36)+ FCX,Freeport Mcmoran (US$39.5)

Tenure 1 year
Interest : 22% pa
Knock Out: 100% i.e ABX=US$36 FCX=US$39.5

Knock in level 62% i.e ABX = US$22.3 FCX = US$24.5

===============================================
I think Can look in Tiger air & SIA if oil continue to drop. Hv been monitoring Tiger Air since the Bird flu one week ago.

rdgs,
Vic

[heroes]

somebody is giving us the opportunity to buy physical gold at a discount. forget about 1oz, buy 1kg physical bar at UOB on monday

Dont full power leh... Buy avg is better

[heroes]

Look up for central banks and IMF off loading especially for those troubled EU countries.
1520 broke decisively.
Many stops in silver and gold, crude all triggered.
Very tempted.....

Thank u Laguna. So what the next support ? 1400 ?

[Laguna]

UBS bank already know the gold will drop in the next 12 mths when they launched the FCN on Barrick Gold EARLY NOV12.

============================================

ATTRACTIVE AUTOCALL COUPON + DEEP KNOCK IN + CONVERSION
ABX,Barrick Gold (Spot US$36)+ FCX,Freeport Mcmoran (US$39.5)

Tenure 1 year
Interest : 22% pa
Knock Out: 100% i.e ABX=US$36 FCX=US$39.5

Knock in level 62% i.e ABX = US$22.3 FCX = US$24.5

===============================================
I think Can look in Tiger air & SIA if oil continue to drop. Hv been monitoring Tiger Air since the Bird flu one week ago.

rdgs,
Vic

Vic
Barrick Gold closed at 22.62...
are you saying UBS was selling this FCN to its clients in 4Q2012?
Did they present their view to their clients first before asking them to move in?

Thank u Laguna. So what the next support ? 1400 ?

Technically, gold is now into a bear market. The market cycle for gold is ultra long. The next support is at 1480, almost tested last night. I was so tempted to move in last night, but prefer to have good night sleep, important for old people.

There are many asset classes around. Taking into account inflation and other asset classes, in fact, gold is one of the worst performing assets.

I am not surprised that more funds / central government will liquidate gold and move into equity markets and bonds.

[hopeful]

Dont full power leh... Buy avg is better

averaging down for a long time now. i am crying . this $100 drop sure beats the heart out of me. but come monday, i am getting another bar.

not sure how UOB can get the spread between physical and paper gold so thin, but i am not looking at a gift's horse in the mouth.

last time, i asked the UOB gold department whether UOB did test their gold, what the thin guy (there's only 1) say, UOB when they received gold from their suppliers, they did not test their gold. . they just packed the gold bar in their plastic packaging.
perhaps that is the reason why they dont accept any gold bar purchased outside.....be...be...because they are afraid of tungsten gold.

link courtesy of zerohedge.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-0...old-coins-here
the china company making gold plated tungsten.
http://www.tungsten-alloy.com/tungst...-gold-bar.html
"Therefore, if you are interest in tungsten fake gold products, please feel free to contact [email protected], or telephone 86 592 512 9696. "

[Laguna]

I have a friend heavily invested into Gold Guarantee....and Geneva Gold....
Why MAS just black listed them instead of upfront write them off....

[hopeful]

from the same company making tungsten gold
http://www.tungsten-alloy.com/gold-p...loy-brick.html

i have a good laugh.

Owing to the special properties of tungsten alloy, such as high density, high melting point, small volume, excellent hardness, superior wearing resistance, high ultimate tensile strength, high ductility, high temperature resistance, etc., gold-plated tungsten brick is more and more popular for public as gold substitution for handicraft, souvenir and gift.
As we know, RMB exchange rate is fluctuating always recently, many and many people would like to purchase much real gold for keeping value, however, it is estimated that real gold would be sold totally one day. Maybe purchasing and keeping gold- plated tungsten alloy brick would make up for this situation.

[indomie]

Bill Clinton once said "So far, every single person who has bet against America has lost money."

[cbsh38584]

Vic
Barrick Gold closed at 22.62...
are you saying UBS was selling this FCN to its clients in 4Q2012?
Did they present their view to their clients first before asking them to move in?



Technically, gold is now into a bear market. The market cycle for gold is ultra long. The next support is at 1480, almost tested last night. I was so tempted to move in last night, but prefer to have good night sleep, important for old people.

There are many asset classes around. Taking into account inflation and other asset classes, in fact, gold is one of the worst performing assets.

I am not surprised that more funds / central government will liquidate gold and move into equity markets and bonds.

It did introduce this derivative product to all bank Nov12. It is up to ignorant clients to decide. All the banks are protected as those private clients have done a risk profile accessment by the banker.

When come to investment. Patience is important. If we are not sure. Better stay put or buy small amt.

The Best Quotes From “Thick Face, Black Heart”
There is a popular Chinese maxim: “A nation may support its troops for thousands of years to prepare for the few moments when they will be needed.


Should U do the same for cash ?Patiently prepare cash for that few moments when it come. Goldman sachs is manipulating the gold prices. GOLD can crash by a big % within a day. They can do to BOND especially Perp bond or stock mkt when the time is riped.

Fear index is your "best friend". Herd investment is your "worst enemy" . If U cant control your emotional, herd investment. Better buy small amt to learn from your mistakes. I still make mistakes but lesser now.

rdgs,
Vic

[teddybear]

This is how to suck people to buy..

Look up for central banks and IMF off loading especially for those troubled EU countries.
1520 broke decisively.
Many stops in silver and gold, crude all triggered.
Very tempted.....

[focus]

Yup..

If the ELNs are created by the banks and sold to you , instead of you requesting for an ELN, it is usually a way to hedge their own position.

That's what I believe.

For example, if one guy in the IB unit has a $200mil long on a Gold producer, but there might be some concern of a correction, the bank will structure an ELN to hedge that position. This ELN will be sold to the pte wealth mgmt branch.

If the producer does corrects to that level, the guy in IB passed his position to you at the strike price. Thus, offloading his position to you at a profit even though the price has gone below the strike.

If the price did not correct, he will just pass you an interest(taken from the options he took) for taking the bet.

So risk/reward is skewed towards the originator, not the participants.

Correct me if i'm wrong.

If you are structuring your own, then it's different.

[indomie]

Yup..

If the ELNs are created by the banks and sold to you , instead of you requesting for an ELN, it is usually a way to hedge their own position.

That's what I believe.

For example, if one guy in the IB unit has a $200mil long on a Gold producer, but there might be some concern of a correction, the bank will structure an ELN to hedge that position. This ELN will be sold to the pte wealth mgmt branch.

If the producer does corrects to that level, the guy in IB passed his position to you at the strike price. Thus, offloading his position to you at a profit even though the price has gone below the strike.

If the price did not correct, he will just pass you an interest(taken from the options he took) for taking the bet.

So risk/reward is skewed towards the originator, not the participants.

Correct me if i'm wrong.

If you are structuring your own, then it's different.

Aren't we all much wiser now.... Thanks bro

[phantom_opera]

my Dow gold ratio of 15k to 1,500 coming very near liao

beware, once dow gold ratio hits 10 is doubled confirmed in next few days... it will be the D-day

[cbsh38584]

Yup..

If the ELNs are created by the banks and sold to you , instead of you requesting for an ELN, it is usually a way to hedge their own position.

That's what I believe.

For example, if one guy in the IB unit has a $200mil long on a Gold producer, but there might be some concern of a correction, the bank will structure an ELN to hedge that position. This ELN will be sold to the pte wealth mgmt branch.

If the producer does corrects to that level, the guy in IB passed his position to you at the strike price. Thus, offloading his position to you at a profit even though the price has gone below the strike.

If the price did not correct, he will just pass you an interest(taken from the options he took) for taking the bet.

So risk/reward is skewed towards the originator, not the participants.

Correct me if i'm wrong.

If you are structuring your own, then it's different.

I do ELN/FCN because I want to know more. The more I do. The more I begin to realise that I can sometimes use the FCN/ELN very attractive pricing to know inadvance the movement of that particular stock or sector outlook.


In early 2008, Citigroup ELN pricing is so attractive (36% pa 1 yr + very deep strike price ) that I see a major downside for this stock. Out of curiosity , I ask for another pricing for bank of America. The pricing is also very attractive. I start to realise the US banking sector maybe heading for a big trouble. Later the big trouble become a unexpected real big financial crsis.


rdgs,
Vic

[Laguna]

There is lot of wisdom in this group, I'm thinking of setting up an whatapps group for more private and timly sharing.
Anyone keen?

[newbie11]

I am keen.. Would love to join

[Allthepies]

I'm keen too.

[starrynight]

Please include me too

[stl67]

Please include me too

same here.. me very interested.

[Laguna]

Gold and Crude are still under very heavy selling this morning.
John Paulson suffered more than US $300M on Friday.

For those who are interested to form the group, please PM me. If the key players are not keen, then will be more difficult.

[Laguna]

Melt down of crude and metals
Wait for all margin calls, force selling and redemption to take place before moving in

[Laguna]

If Cyprus, a small country, has US $500 millions of surplus gold to dispose.
Then no one knows how much other troubled EU countries have.

All of a sudden, they found gold mine at their backyard.

GS, Soros many are now calling gold bear. The only in the market now is John Paulson. His loss today should be US $ 500m or close to us $ 1b since last week. Their leverage is around 20 times. ..

So more to come

[cbsh38584]

Gold dropped close to 10% within 2 days. When the time is riped, BOND & stock will also hv a big drop like GOLD. It is also a matter of when will the big speculators like GOLDMAN sach strike. Nobody knows the exact big Sudden drop will come that may catch U off guard.

What I am trying to tell U is that patience is very important when come to investing. if U are not sure or the fear factor is not there, pls protect your cash. If U still want to invest. Buy small amt.

FYI.
I bought 1st state resource in 2006 @100. Take profit @10% within mths . It went up as high as 1.80 in 2007. Seven yrs later (2013). The price is back to around 100. May drop >100. So taking profit on commodities is very important. No long term holding as it is very volatile.

rdgs,
Vic