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Thread: BOND THREAD

  1. #121
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    this thread getting more lively, with numbers sloshing around.

    chestnut, noted your point on universal life.

    just to add to your list, there's another group of people in this forum, those too serious, cannot differentiate sacarsm from honest opinion.

  2. #122
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    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna
    when u have bond, ur looking for fixed income or yield and perhaps some capital appreciation. U buy straight bond, so the capital appreciation is not that substantial.

    When in property, ur talking not about rental/yield, but on capital appreciation especially on a cash on cash return. Of course, now with lower LTV, the cash on cash return is getting lesser.

    I got a friend, bot in early 2011, now the capital appreciation is 60%, u cannot get this sort of capital return in bonds.
    Property is good hedge against inflation. But with so many CMs being introduced by our government. The potential 60% return will be rare in future. Maybe U need to hold > 10 yrs. That is why I said bond is another alternative to property investment due to the latest CM.

    I myself benefited from my property investment b4. So I still believe in investing property at GOOD LOCATION for long term. But the latest CM make it dificult for potential investors to buy now. There will more CM if Fed decide to have QE4...QE5 on & on.

    My focus is in bond for 2011 to 2014. May stretch due 2015 if rate is still reasonable low. 2016 to 2017 focus maybe in property.

    If U have holding power for your property. U will probably beat inflation.I still believe in property investment.





    rdgs,
    Vic

  3. #123
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    Yes, this thread is very lively.
    Things brought up here are for consideration.
    I don't think people will follow advice blindly.
    If someone brings up something which interests you, I am sure you will do your own research.
    I enjoy hearing opinion from different sides.
    @Vic...... Thanks for sharing with us your way of investing. You have painstakingly simplified what would otherwise seem complicated for me.
    @chestnut........thanks for giving advice from the other point of view n thanks for earnestly pointing out the pit falls.

  4. #124
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    1:46am Thursday (SGT) - Time in Singapore

    Wow still awake.

  5. #125
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon
    1:46am Thursday (SGT) - Time in Singapore

    Wow still awake.
    Yup..... .
    Bro, your time is in the evening, right?
    Had dinner?

  6. #126
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    Quote Originally Posted by buttercarp
    Yup..... .
    Bro, your time is in the evening, right?
    Had dinner?
    stay up to watch FOMC meeting??

  7. #127
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    Quote Originally Posted by Secretariat
    You are doing all these just for the $25,000?

    With borrowed money, and unhedged I suppose.
    There are obviously some traders in this forum.

    The $800,000 equity of the property is just vapor, a mark-to-market figure purely for the purpose of facilitating a loan.

    If the improbable Black Swam event is taking place as you are reading this post, the $800,000 can well become $600,000.

    Since it is borrowed against, then you are down $200,000 in the equity loan.

    The position that generates $25,000, in this event, can well become $550,000; so you are down $200,000 here.

    Total $400,000. But don't worry, this is just an example fortunately.

    In the thread The Swap, a couple of posters asked "why bother with a swap, why not equity loan...". I left them unanswered. The answer is in the above example.

    A property equity is just that, a vapor. Borrowing against a vapor is not in my dictionary. If you are ultra bullish in the direction of property price, and want to take more risk, then please realize, cash, the property equity first.

    The vapor will just disappear when the sun comes out.

  8. #128
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    Quote Originally Posted by buttercarp
    @Vic...... Thanks for sharing with us your way of investing. You have painstakingly simplified what would otherwise seem complicated for me.
    @chestnut........thanks for giving advice from the other point of view n thanks for earnestly pointing out the pit falls.
    so SAd that u did not thank me despiite I put up such a long write up on bonds.

  9. #129
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    Great discussion folks. I learnt a lot. I can share on mortgage only. Spread is surely going up slowly

  10. #130
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    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna
    so SAd that u did not thank me despiite I put up such a long write up on bonds.
    @Laguna.......
    Was saving the best for you, especially you are the thread starter!
    It was late last night and I was using my phone to surf the web so could not post this flowers.
    So this is for you and a big THANK YOU !




  11. #131
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    Quote Originally Posted by buttercarp
    @Laguna.......
    Was saving the best for you, especially you are the thread starter!
    It was late last night and I was using my phone to surf the web so could not post this flowers.
    So this is for you and a big THANK YOU !



    My lovely Butter....
    Look like I have to share some more my knowledge in Bond very soon.
    Will write something...let me think think

  12. #132
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    Quote Originally Posted by newbie11
    Great discussion folks. I learnt a lot. I can share on mortgage only. Spread is surely going up slowly
    Actually, you can share a lot more .. you working in mortgage industry... You will sure encountered the richies and how they fund their properties and how they got rich.. Must be interesting to hear all these stories.

    So spread is going up this year or next?
    The result of banks seeking more deposits to boost their basel iii requiremetns?

  13. #133
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    In fact, some banks have alr lowered the LTV for bond etc...

  14. #134
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    since I am lazy to find out ... can anybody answer me whether Genting perpetual bond interest is accumulative i.e. if they decide not to pay this year, next year they must pay back the payment they missed this year??

    bank pref share is normally NC .. right?
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  15. #135
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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    since I am lazy to find out ... can anybody answer me whether Genting perpetual bond interest is accumulative i.e. if they decide not to pay this year, next year they must pay back the payment they missed this year??

    bank pref share is normally NC .. right?
    just google lor!
    cumulative

    http://www.btinvest.com.sg/markets/b...rpetual-bonds/

  16. #136
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    never say what kind of interest is payable if missed payment though .. ok lah ... i lazy to read the IPO booklet

    Still, the distributions are cumulative, which means investors are entitled to any missed distributions, plus interest on those payments, during a future payout.
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  17. #137
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    and I Find this really funny:

    Prices of longer-tenure bonds are more sensitive to interest rates than bonds with shorter tenures. Since perpetual bonds can have almost an unlimited tenure if the issuer chooses not to redeem them, they can be considered to be at the highest risk.

    => consider our CPF OA is 2.5% and CPF SA is 4% (but going to be 10y SGS +1% which is even lower than 2.5% now )

    Since CPF can have almost an unlimited tenure, if the garmen chooses not to redeem them, they can be considered to be at the highest risk
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  18. #138
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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    never say what kind of interest is payable if missed payment though .. ok lah ... i lazy to read the IPO booklet

    Still, the distributions are cumulative, which means investors are entitled to any missed distributions, plus interest on those payments, during a future payout.
    not so bad lah! at least they pay dividend....

  19. #139
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    Bond coming ?





    Shipping and logistics group Neptune Orient Lines Ltd said it is launching an issue of Singapore dollar-denominated notes under its US$1.5 billion Euro Medium Term Note (EMTN) programme on Monday.
    In a stock filing to the Singapore Exchange, the company said: "Proceeds from the proposed transaction will be used for general corporate funding purposes and investments."
    DBS Bank Ltd will act as global coordinator of the issue. The joint lead managers are DBS, HSBC, OCBC and Standard Chartered Bank.

  20. #140
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lovelle
    Bond coming ?





    Shipping and logistics group Neptune Orient Lines Ltd said it is launching an issue of Singapore dollar-denominated notes under its US$1.5 billion Euro Medium Term Note (EMTN) programme on Monday.
    In a stock filing to the Singapore Exchange, the company said: "Proceeds from the proposed transaction will be used for general corporate funding purposes and investments."
    DBS Bank Ltd will act as global coordinator of the issue. The joint lead managers are DBS, HSBC, OCBC and Standard Chartered Bank.
    ISSUER: Neptune Orient Lines Limited
    RATING: Unrated
    STATUS: Senior, Unsecured
    FORMAT: RegS, Bearer
    ISSUE SIZE: SGD Benchmark
    TENOR: 7 Years
    PRICE: 100.00
    INITIAL GUIDANCE: 4.5% area
    OPTIONAL REDEMPTION: Redeemable at the Issuer's option in whole or in part:
    Year 2017 at [100 + (Coupon Rate/2)]%
    Year 2018 at [100 + (Coupon Rate/4)]%
    COC STEP-UP 150bps step up if COC ( Change of Control ) occurs and the Notes are not redeemed
    within 60 days of occurrence of such COC ( if Temasek stake < 50% ) (current Temasek stake at 67%)
    DETAILS: SGD 250,000 / EMTN Programme / SGX /Singapore Law
    CLEARING: Primary - CDP, Secondary - Euroclear/Clearstream
    GLOBAL CO-ORDINATOR: DBS
    JOINT BOOKRUNNERS: DBS, HSBC, OCBC & SCB
    TIMING: As early as today

  21. #141
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    Sorry can I ask a dumb question (cos I have no knowledge about bonds)?

    - Is NOL considered SGS?

    2nd dumb question:

    - Since NOL sold building to Fragrance, is that a sign of something?
    Do we need to take into consideration of the above?
    Their rating I note is "unrated".

    3rd dumber question :

    What is the minimum lot that can be purchased?
    Is it must buy at least $250k ?

    4th dumbest question :

    Where can we buy bonds in the resale market?
    Must we buy through a broker?
    Or can we just buy online?

    TIA!!!!

  22. #142
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    Qn 1) what is SGS?
    Qn 2) Real Estate is typically non core to such companies, if they want to enhance their return on assets, they could sell non core assets. If there is something more sinister, you have to be an insider to know, which I don't.
    Qn 3) min denomination of $250k
    Qn 4) buy through banker since this is OTC if I remember correctly.

  23. #143
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    SGS is Singapore government securities i.e. Singapore government bonds

    NOL is not SGS

    And please take note it is in EURO, not in SGD so there is foreign currency risk

    Normally it will be listed in SGX for trading after successful IPO

    If you know the state of shipping industry ... 7y bond at 4+% is really

    Junk bond selling as AAA ??
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  24. #144
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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera

    If you know the state of shipping industry ... 7y bond at 4+% is really

    Junk bond selling as AAA ??
    Nice one.

    Any sign of life at Baltic Dry?

  25. #145
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    so nobody taking the bond ?

    Capmall was 3.8% 2022. NOL 4% slightly better...but need to know if it is a perp bond?

    if perp bond then forget it.

  26. #146
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lovelle
    so nobody taking the bond ?

    Capmall was 3.8% 2022. NOL 4% slightly better...but need to know if it is a perp bond?

    if perp bond then forget it.
    i am willing to take perpetual bond if you guarantee return of 7% pa without failure until I die
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  27. #147
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    Thanks all for the answers!
    I will continue to do my research on bonds.


    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    i am willing to take perpetual bond if you guarantee return of 7% pa without failure until I die
    Bro ghost, got such bond available?
    If have, I also want !

  28. #148
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    When you go to a bank, say to buy a property, you know your risk better than the banker. The banker works simply on a model, the risk level of such and such borrower, his income, age, other liability etc.

    When you buy a bond, you are the banker, so think like a banker and make sure you understand the risk of the borrower.

    The bond's interest rate is a reflection of the risk of the borrower (bond issuer), because the market thinks that it is riskier to lend money to NOL than CapMall, and demands a higher interest rate.

    But the market can be wrong, as it did during subprime crisis. The rating agency can be wrong as well, so the comment from Phantom, junk bond being marketed as AAA.

    Will you lend to a sinking company?

  29. #149
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    Quote Originally Posted by buttercarp
    Thanks all for the answers!
    I will continue to do my research on bonds.




    Bro ghost, got such bond available?
    If have, I also want !
    Got, Genting perpetual ...but 5.125% only and redeemable after 10y by issuer ... if not redeemed then increase to 6.125% (which is pretty close to 7% no guarantee of payment)
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  30. #150
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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    Got, Genting perpetual ...but 5.125% only and redeemable after 10y by issuer ... if not redeemed then increase to 6.125% (which is pretty close to 7% no guarantee of payment)
    Perpetual also means that perpetually not being redeemed leh.

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