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Thread: BOND THREAD

  1. #841
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    Jan 2011
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    1,081

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by stl67
    Before the banker did the risk profile with me, we have a few chats and then/finally he explained to me that we need to adjust the risk profiles if I want to do ELN and some riskier products. The rest as you know lah, most bankers will protect themself and will say at the end of the day, it is our call. So you are right that I half blindly do the risk profile assesment with them and I must say I am a riskier person.

    Honestly, I am also worry of the FED removing the QE and then interest rate starts to climb. So far I have no exit plan for this except that I need to ensure that there is enough liqudity to service the mortgagea, even in the worst case situation. My excel skill quite good, so I did future Cash flow projections to ensure there is always liquidity provided that those fix coupon securities do not default.

    Liquidity will ensure holding power just like businessman and the prove? For eg, during the Lehman crisis, I forced sell 1 of the condo so that I can continue floating and move on. (No point looking back).

    This time round, I am more prepare. Why? My 2 equity loans (1 my own and the other family shared and I am majority) are fully paid so my take is that the chance of margin call is slimmer. I might be wrong.... After thinking for so long, I really have no idea on how to generate more $$.. so decided to take some risk...

    As always, I appreciate your advice and contribution.

    You are a impatience risk taker. U better stop further investment until U hv a clear mind. I suggest you redo your risk profile at least 3 times at different day or week to reconfirm what U really want to achieve. Do it seriously with your whole family member in mind. Then stick to it.


    You cannot hv "As long as I dont lose, I am happy" mentally. Yet U go for high risk ELN/FCN which can drop >50%. worst case ZERO. US$1.3m is really too much. I only hv 300k.


    As for you having 2 equity loan to buy risker investment product. Although the margin call is very slim. But it can be a very painful slow death & may cause bad relationship among your family member. Your ELN/FCN convert to shares & share keep going down & equity loan interest keep going up & U refuse to cut loss. Your wealth painfuly slowly go down . This painful sernarios can happen.


    I hv gone through 97/98 & 08/09. My mistake is like everybody. Human memories tend to forget about the past mistakes. I hv forgotten the 97/98 crsis. I repeat it again. Luckily I hv the courage to cut loss.That why I survive. Like what Spanish Philpsopher George Santayana says. "THOSE WHO CANNOT REMEMBER THE PAST ARE CONDEMNED to REPEAT IT" I tell myself NOT to be condemned again by reminding myself through writing in this forum.


    A successful traders are those who are courageous & fast in cutting loss when investment goes wrong.


    PATIENT PATIENT PATIENT is only advise I can give U. To Buy stock at low floor, U need to be patient. Opportunities will come. Just be more patient.


    rdgs,
    Vic

  2. #842
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lovelle
    hi brudder chestnut

    it's too late for me to sell . Just collect small small rental, just learnt to be contented.

    i play small small in stocks. Usually blue chips for dividend.

    Once i start to read too many business news, my head will start to ache. Prefer to think where to visit for my next holiday...
    OIC... Then I strongly suggest you keep all the properties and collect rental... The property is a hedge.... Then times are bad, rental drop but so do everything.... When times are good, rental up, and so does inflation... so you get to spend the "same" amount of money with the economy...
    Let me explain...
    When times were bad, my Anchorage rental was 2K... But everything was also cheap... Today, my rental is 5K, but everything expensive... So equalized....
    At least with properties, you get money every month.... Hahahaha....

    Cheers

  3. #843
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    Mar 2008
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    693

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    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584
    You are a impatience risk taker. U better stop further investment until U hv a clear mind. I suggest you redo your risk profile at least 3 times at different day or week to reconfirm what U really want to achieve. Do it seriously with your whole family member in mind. Then stick to it.


    You cannot hv "As long as I dont lose, I am happy" mentally. Yet U go for high risk ELN/FCN which can drop >50%. worst case ZERO. US$1.3m is really too much. I only hv 300k.


    As for you having 2 equity loan to buy risker investment product. Although the margin call is very slim. But it can be a very painful slow death & may cause bad relationship among your family member. Your ELN/FCN convert to shares & share keep going down & equity loan interest keep going up & U refuse to cut loss. Your wealth painfuly slowly go down . This painful sernarios can happen.


    I hv gone through 97/98 & 08/09. My mistake is like everybody. Human memories tend to forget about the past mistakes. I hv forgotten the 97/98 crsis. I repeat it again. Luckily I hv the courage to cut loss.That why I survive. Like what Spanish Philpsopher George Santayana says. "THOSE WHO CANNOT REMEMBER THE PAST ARE CONDEMNED to REPEAT IT" I tell myself NOT to be condemned again by reminding myself through writing in this forum.


    A successful traders are those who are courageous & fast in cutting loss when investment goes wrong.


    PATIENT PATIENT PATIENT is only advise I can give U. To Buy stock at low floor, U need to be patient. Opportunities will come. Just be more patient.


    rdgs,
    Vic
    Just check that my risk profile is 6. To do ELN, I need at least a 5.

    Will wait till all my FCN contracts terminate and think again on my portfolio.
    Next week I plan to meet a friend working in a bank and undertand how they do the pricing for structures. Apparently they used a software call Murex to do it.

    Originally my intention is to just buy bonds only. But after getting the quotation and looking at the mkt situation, Bonds really cannot make it. So one thing lead to another + myself being a risk taker, decide to go into structure.
    I was looking at funds, but funds also have the +ve and -ve points. So decide to just buy a bit to balance up the portfolio.

    As I am the majority shareolder of the funds, my family all leaves it to me + none of them really know how to do it also.

    Appreciate your concern and taking time to response to my posts.

  4. #844
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    Keeping properties also good as it can have capital gain of more than 100% as compared to the downturn period besides tenant helping to pay for the house.
    Quote Originally Posted by chestnut
    OIC... Then I strongly suggest you keep all the properties and collect rental... The property is a hedge.... Then times are bad, rental drop but so do everything.... When times are good, rental up, and so does inflation... so you get to spend the "same" amount of money with the economy...
    Let me explain...
    When times were bad, my Anchorage rental was 2K... But everything was also cheap... Today, my rental is 5K, but everything expensive... So equalized....
    At least with properties, you get money every month.... Hahahaha....

    Cheers

  5. #845
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    Mar 2008
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    Default

    Today's issuance:

    Issuer:
    RCI Banque SA ("RCI")
    Issuer Ratings:
    Baa3 (stable) / BBB (negative) (Moody's / S&P)
    Expected Issue Ratings:
    Baa3 stable (Moody's)/ BBB (S&P) expected
    Documentation:
    Drawdown from EMTN Programme
    Status:
    Fixed Rate, Senior, Unsecured
    Format:
    Regulation S
    Size:
    S$ TBC
    Final Guidance:
    3.00% (the number)
    Details:
    250k x 250k / English Law / Euroclear,Clearsteam / Luxembourg & Euronext-Paris Stock Exchange
    Joint Bookrunners:
    HSBC (B&D), UOB
    Risk Rating:
    P3 (P1 to P5, P5 being the highest)

  6. #846
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    Quote Originally Posted by stl67
    Just check that my risk profile is 6. To do ELN, I need at least a 5.

    Will wait till all my FCN contracts terminate and think again on my portfolio.
    Next week I plan to meet a friend working in a bank and undertand how they do the pricing for structures. Apparently they used a software call Murex to do it.

    Originally my intention is to just buy bonds only. But after getting the quotation and looking at the mkt situation, Bonds really cannot make it. So one thing lead to another + myself being a risk taker, decide to go into structure.
    I was looking at funds, but funds also have the +ve and -ve points. So decide to just buy a bit to balance up the portfolio.

    As I am the majority shareolder of the funds, my family all leaves it to me + none of them really know how to do it also.

    Appreciate your concern and taking time to response to my posts.

    If U are very patient. Opportunities are abundant when it comes until U dont know which counter to buy.For a non experience investors, dont take huge amt of risk. Take small amt of risk to pay for your mistakes. Take good care of your family wealth. It take years to build. It just take weeks to go bad if your huge bet goes wrong.

    Try good IPO share if avail. The recent reit IPO has done very well. I believe your portfolio is still OK & U should hv time to re-examine your real risk profile with your family member in mind. You may not be in the level 6. Maybe U did it unitentionally without your loves one in mind.




    rdgs,
    Vic

  7. #847
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    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584
    If U are very patient. Opportunities are abundant when it comes until U dont know which counter to buy.For a non experience investors, dont take huge amt of risk. Take small amt of risk to pay for your mistakes. Take good care of your family wealth. It take years to build. It just take weeks to go bad if your huge bet goes wrong.

    Try good IPO share if avail. The recent reit IPO has done very well. I believe your portfolio is still OK & U should hv time to re-examine your real risk profile with your family member in mind. You may not be in the level 6. Maybe U did it unitentionally without your loves one in mind.




    rdgs,
    Vic
    I think there is plenty of truth in your statement. Ur sharing is invaluable.

  8. #848
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    HSI down badly
    Pl read China news on sars like flu

  9. #849
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    Quote Originally Posted by indomie
    I think there is plenty of truth in your statement. Ur sharing is invaluable.
    It is a true life experince in 1997/98 crisis myself. My 10 over years of saving which pump into Clob shares (KLSE) was valued less than 15% within few weeks. I cant believe. Luckily I am single & start all over again.



    rdgs,
    Vic

  10. #850
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    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584
    It is a true life experince in 1997/98 crisis myself. My 10 over years of saving which pump into Clob shares (KLSE) was valued less than 15% within few weeks. I cant believe. Luckily I am single & start all over again.



    rdgs,
    Vic
    All great investors are "battle tested". If it doesn't break u, it makes u stronger.

  11. #851
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    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna
    HSI down badly
    Pl read China news on sars like flu
    There maybe some opportunities coming for those who are patience enough to wait. Ususally, Apr to May mth season is not a mth for stock. Let observe with eye open.

    rdgs,
    vic

  12. #852
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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008
    Keeping properties also good as it can have capital gain of more than 100% as compared to the downturn period besides tenant helping to pay for the house.
    Bro DC, if you borrow 80%, if capital gain go 100%. It means 500% roi.

    Say 1 mil condo. Downpayment 200k. Price of condo after appreciation - 2mil. So make 1 mil out of 200k downpayment. Power of leverage. But is also a double edged sword.. Every weapon can be lethal to oneself if not used properly.


  13. #853
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    Below an ideal case for a diversified investment portfolio.

    Family Live in 5 bedrm HDB with lower cost
    ===========================
    1a) One Freehold property in Good school , like Nanyang primary/Botantic garden MRT like D11. S'pore or oversea Chinese always want to send their children to good school. Renting out will be easy.

    1b). A 2nd investment property will also near MRT preferred with shopping below. Renting out should not hv problem.

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    2a) Buying a quality Perp bond Cheung Kong , AIVA, standard chartered bank etc during crisis time.Treat it as a "CPF Special acct" with coupon payout (yearly) Perpetual unless it is called back early.


    2b) UOB/OCBC preference share can also look into it. Patiently wait for opportunities to buy at low price. Prefer to use SRS acct to buy.Maybe can try Genting Perp using SRS acct to buy when price drop.


    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    3a. Buy good quality stock with dividend Like HK Cheung Kong , HK AIA, China construction bank , S'pore blue chip , US stock like POTash corp (POT) , Yum brand (YUM - KFC) , Nestle , Exxon mobil corp, LVMH (LV bag) etc, M'sia public bank , Maybank etc.

    3b. Buy quality unit trust - Schrode Asian growth fund , Prudential S'pore managed fund , 1st state dividend fund , AIA regional equity etc.

    3c) Apply potential good IPO share if it is avail.

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Pls take note U need to insure your whole family as a 1st priority with enough coverage in the event of major illness/death or accident occurs.

    This should be a good diversified portfolio. Maybe all of U can share more to learn from each other.



    rdgs,
    Vic

  14. #854
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    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584
    Below an ideal case for a diversified investment portfolio.

    Family Live in 5 bedrm HDB with lower cost
    ===========================
    1a) One Freehold property in Good school , like Nanyang primary/Botantic garden MRT like D11. S'pore or oversea Chinese always want to send their children to good school. Renting out will be easy.

    1b). A 2nd investment property will also near MRT preferred with shopping below. Renting out should not hv problem.

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    2a) Buying a quality Perp bond Cheung Kong , AIVA, standard chartered bank etc during crisis time.Treat it as a "CPF Special acct" with coupon payout (yearly) Perpetual unless it is called back early.


    2b) UOB/OCBC preference share can also look into it. Patiently wait for opportunities to buy at low price. Prefer to use SRS acct to buy.Maybe can try Genting Perp using SRS acct to buy when price drop.


    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    3a. Buy good quality stock with dividend Like HK Cheung Kong , HK AIA, China construction bank , S'pore blue chip , US stock like POTash corp (POT) , Yum brand (YUM - KFC) , Nestle , Exxon mobil corp, LVMH (LV bag) etc, M'sia public bank , Maybank etc.

    3b. Buy quality unit trust - Schrode Asian growth fund , Prudential S'pore managed fund , 1st state dividend fund , AIA regional equity etc.

    3c) Apply potential good IPO share if it is avail.

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Pls take note U need to insure your whole family as a 1st priority with enough coverage in the event of major illness/death or accident occurs.

    This should be a good diversified portfolio. Maybe all of U can share more to learn from each other.



    rdgs,
    Vic

    Dear Vic

    I always look forward to reading your wise and no-nonsense sharing. Thank you and I do learn quite a bit from you and hope to put them into action soon.

    Have a good weekend.

  15. #855
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    Default Bond king is right after all

    NEW YORK - Bond bears took a beating on Friday after a weak US payroll report stunned Wall Street and sparked the biggest rally in US Treasuries in more than 10 months.
    Exchange-traded funds that bet on long-dated US government debt prices to fall suffered their worst one-day loss since late May, while the 30-year Treasury bond booked its biggest one-day gain at the same time.
    This reversal of fortune came a week after long-dated US government bonds recorded their worst quarter in a year on the expectations the US economy was gaining traction and the speculation that the Federal Reserve might slow or stop buying bonds to support the economic recovery before the end of year.
    ETFs that bet on falling Treasuries prices on the other hand posted their biggest quarter gain in a year.

    => yesterday's report again signals that low interest is here to stay, now probably till 2020

    10-Year UST
    1.69%
    -0.07
    -3.70%
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  16. #856
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    Thanks Vic for sharing. Appreciate a lot.

  17. #857
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    Vic
    You are excellent in sharing
    And make this thread a great place for learning.
    Appreciated

  18. #858
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    I found out today from a family friend who is a private banker that some bond issuers / managers actually pay the bank 25 bp on new bonds sold.

  19. #859
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    Posts
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    NEW YORK - Bond bears took a beating on Friday after a weak US payroll report stunned Wall Street and sparked the biggest rally in US Treasuries in more than 10 months.
    Exchange-traded funds that bet on long-dated US government debt prices to fall suffered their worst one-day loss since late May, while the 30-year Treasury bond booked its biggest one-day gain at the same time.
    This reversal of fortune came a week after long-dated US government bonds recorded their worst quarter in a year on the expectations the US economy was gaining traction and the speculation that the Federal Reserve might slow or stop buying bonds to support the economic recovery before the end of year.
    ETFs that bet on falling Treasuries prices on the other hand posted their biggest quarter gain in a year.

    => yesterday's report again signals that low interest is here to stay, now probably till 2020

    10-Year UST
    1.69%
    -0.07
    -3.70%
    smiling and feeling smug about myself.

  20. #860
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    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584
    Below an ideal case for a diversified investment portfolio.

    Family Live in 5 bedrm HDB with lower cost
    ===========================
    1a) One Freehold property in Good school , like Nanyang primary/Botantic garden MRT like D11. S'pore or oversea Chinese always want to send their children to good school. Renting out will be easy.

    1b). A 2nd investment property will also near MRT preferred with shopping below. Renting out should not hv problem.

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    2a) Buying a quality Perp bond Cheung Kong , AIVA, standard chartered bank etc during crisis time.Treat it as a "CPF Special acct" with coupon payout (yearly) Perpetual unless it is called back early.


    2b) UOB/OCBC preference share can also look into it. Patiently wait for opportunities to buy at low price. Prefer to use SRS acct to buy.Maybe can try Genting Perp using SRS acct to buy when price drop.


    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    3a. Buy good quality stock with dividend Like HK Cheung Kong , HK AIA, China construction bank , S'pore blue chip , US stock like POTash corp (POT) , Yum brand (YUM - KFC) , Nestle , Exxon mobil corp, LVMH (LV bag) etc, M'sia public bank , Maybank etc.

    3b. Buy quality unit trust - Schrode Asian growth fund , Prudential S'pore managed fund , 1st state dividend fund , AIA regional equity etc.

    3c) Apply potential good IPO share if it is avail.

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Pls take note U need to insure your whole family as a 1st priority with enough coverage in the event of major illness/death or accident occurs.

    This should be a good diversified portfolio. Maybe all of U can share more to learn from each other.

    rdgs,
    Vic
    In purusing your goal. You are very stress striving to achieve S'pore dream. You hv some setback. You are angry that things dont work out your way. Sometimes U neglect your immediately family member. You forgotten how your wife stay at home to bring your kids. How your husband work hard to bring meal on the table. Seldom visit or neglect your old age parent who brought you up. You take high risk bet without your family member in mind etc etc.

    I always believe in listen positive / motivating type of musical song to negate our negative thought or stressful mind or things that you hv done not right toward your family member. It will be better if U have a good sound system. It will unleash your subconscious mind. I am not sure whether it will work for U. Below are a few good musical Song or Song sing by famous singer.


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xyUSJ33mEs&feature=related
    Vanessa Mae - I Will Always Love You


    By Terresa Teng. Mother heart
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLzEC13zi0c

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZWDwjQSa5k





    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NO-fx10mGU
    時の過ぎゆくままに

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuzoY37E1eQ
    By Kenny Bee


    Dont't Cry for me Argentina by Elaine Page
    Http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciOalICSUAo&feature=fvwrel




    I know him so well by Elaine Page
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NX7JiBeGAcw



    谷村新司 昴
    -すばる (Sabura)


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nIxYaIlQDk


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQa-85V9FIA


    Happy listening.

    rdgs,
    Vic

  21. #861
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    Anak - Freddie Aguilar
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SkDlO6v8rZI


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oklvyDqCem8

    A very motivating song that make a person stop ending his life. Comment Wrote by this guy below.

    "I was 18 when something happened that made me lose hopes in life cos of relationship. I tried to end my life thinking that I've lost the only reason to live. Then I heard this song which smacked me up, reminding me that I still have my parents to live for. I was also reminded how I have no rights to end my life for my life belongs to them. That was the first and last time I tried to take my life."

    rdgs,
    Vic

  22. #862
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    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584
    Anak - Freddie Aguilar

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SkDlO6v8rZI




    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oklvyDqCem8

    A very motivating song that make a person stop ending his life. Comment Wrote by this guy below.

    "I was 18 when something happened that made me lose hopes in life cos of relationship. I tried to end my life thinking that I've lost the only reason to live. Then I heard this song which smacked me up, reminding me that I still have my parents to live for. I was also reminded how I have no rights to end my life for my life belongs to them. That was the first and last time I tried to take my life."

    rdgs,
    Vic




    許冠傑
    - 浪子心聲

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkoBCtMLn0A

     

  23. #863
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    江蕙 家後
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmxTD4EDzFQ

    Meaningful lyrics

  24. #864
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    Vic,
    We like same era leh... The 4.55 song by the Wynners I used to sing karaok....

  25. #865
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    Quote Originally Posted by stl67
    Vic,
    We like same era leh... The 4.55 song by the Wynners I used to sing karaok....
    All of U know that it is important to exercise to keep your physical body fit. Occasionally good massage to relax your aching body.

    Sometimes, we strive too hard to achieve our SG dream until we hv forgotten our loves one.Our minds may somehow be led astray. So it is very important to occasionally listen to GOOD positive/motivating music to negate our astray mind.


    rdgs,
    Vic

  26. #866
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by cbsh38584
    All of U know that it is important to exercise to keep your physical body fit. Occasionally good massage to relax your aching body.

    Sometimes, we strive too hard to achieve our SG dream until we hv forgotten our loves one.Our minds may somehow be led astray. So it is very important to occasionally listen to GOOD positive/motivating music to negate our astray mind.


    rdgs,
    Vic
    I agree, don't let pressure get into you. Here a story to remind u. http://www.businessinsider.com/jody-...-ecomom-2013-4

  27. #867
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    Default

    An equity loan is a mortgage loan in which the borrower receives money. Typically the loan is secured by real estate already owned outright.

    I find that those who had equity loan with a FIXED rate say 1.5% for three year. Just invest in a safe straight bond due 2015 instead of equity .
    OUE due 2015 YTM 2.9%
    suntec reit due 2015 (YTM 2.7%) ,
    City development due 2015 (YTM 2.3%),
    Kepland due 2015 (YTM 2%),
    street square secured bond due 2014 (YTM 2.5%) etc.

    This is one of the way to reduce your short term mortagage payment burden.

    After 3 yrs, your interest rate may go up. refinance let say 2% three year fixed. . By then straight bond may have also dip due to raising rate & the bond YTM may also improve let say to >3% & above. Then do it again with good quality straight bond due 2018. So U just roll over & over every 3 year again. I am not sure this is one of the way to reduce your mortagage payment burden. Maybe you can check with your experience banker to seek their advise.


    rdgs,
    Vic



  28. #868
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    Default

    New bond issuance from Swiber. Looks like it's to roll their indebtedness...

    Issuer:
    Swiber Holdings Limited
    Status:
    Direct, unconditional, unsubordinated and unsecured Notes
    Issue rating:
    Unrated
    Format:
    Reg S, S274 & 275 of Singapore SFA
    Initial Guidance:
    7 – 7.25% area
    Tenor:
    4 years
    Issue Size:
    TBD
    Payment:
    Semi-annual, actual/365 (fixed)
    Use of Proceeds:
    Refinancing existing borrowings of Issuer and its subsidiaries
    Details:
    MTN Programme/Singapore Law/CDP
    Denoms:
    SGD250K
    Listing:
    SGX-ST
    Sole Global Coordinator:
    DBS
    Joint Bookrunner:
    DBS (B&D), ANZ and OSKDMG
    Timing:
    This week's business, as early as today
    Risk Rating:
    P4 (P1 to P5, P5 being the highest)

  29. #869
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by starrynight
    New bond issuance from Swiber. Looks like it's to roll their indebtedness...
    I am rather wary about this Swiber....

  30. #870
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    This is a better issuer. But too long. 10 yrs.


    Issuer: Goodpack Limited (¡°Goodpack¡±)
    Status: Senior, unsecured
    Rating: Unrated
    Issue / Issue Size: TBD
    Format: Off the Issuer's SGD600Millon Multicurrency MTN Programme
    Initial Guidance: 4.750% area, semi-annual, ACT/365 (Fixed)
    Issue Date: [¡Ü] April 2013
    Tenor: 10-year
    Maturity Date: [¡Ü] April 2023
    Issue Price: 100%
    Denomination: SGD250K
    Governing Law: Singapore Law
    Listing: SGX-ST
    Clearing: CDP
    Selling Restrictions: Sections 274 and/or 275 of the Singapore SFA
    Sole Bookrunner: OCBC Bank (B&D)
    Timing: As early as today

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