Market cycle

[Werther]

Chestnut, thanks for the article.

I think the signal is kind of mixed.. One of my relative trying to sell his property in d10, condo for 5.5m 6 month ago and now will let go at 4.6m. No offer so far. Tenant left in July, vacant till now so maybe the reason to sell lower. From asking rental 13k to now 9k.

This is not run down property, well renovated.

So where are we now.

[Shanhz]

If 80%LTV is to prepare for 20% crash...so new 60% LTV loan means....

What the CM is to prepare everyone for the worst..

This prudence will bring property price down especially now the govt now knows the ones who push the mkt up is neither the buyer or seller. But the banks

exactly what i mean.
that's why i am worried about >-40% down. that is something even govt is not prepared for.

[chestnut]

Can give clue how big and roughly where?

Doing some stats...


CCR badly hit with Absd....

I go in Absd will be 138k + sd about 100k... Already down 238k... Rent at 9k, will take 2 years to recover

Chestnut, thanks for the article.

I think the signal is kind of mixed.. One of my relative trying to sell his property in d10, condo for 5.5m 6 month ago and now will let go at 4.6m. No offer so far. Tenant left in July, vacant till now so maybe the reason to sell lower. From asking rental 13k to now 9k.

This is not run down property, well renovated.

So where are we now.

[Shanhz]

My opinion, yield compression will be insignificant. Come december 15 2015 when asean economy community come into place, singapore will be inundated by wave of asean workers and investors. I don't believe sg gov is purposely building itself into over supply. No other country on earth is as nimble and agile as sg government. Or as forward planning.

i am not pro govt but give credit where it is due. they do not have the distraction of messy politics, therefore they can do good planning. with 2011, some things have changed in the equation, but they are still doing decent work, IMHO. abit of kick in their backside is not a bad thing.

[roly8]

Chestnut, thanks for the article.

I think the signal is kind of mixed.. One of my relative trying to sell his property in d10, condo for 5.5m 6 month ago and now will let go at 4.6m. No offer so far. Tenant left in July, vacant till now so maybe the reason to sell lower. From asking rental 13k to now 9k.

This is not run down property, well renovated.

So where are we now.

any idea how many bedder condo?

if it is large, i think chance of finding expat family might be difficult(not too sure) ..other member might want to comment on large size condo (3 bedder onward)

[Werther]

I was told 2500 sq ft, 4 room in holland, fh. Not too sure which development cos I don't want so sound too Kay Poh. Haha

[Werther]

Rental 9k @ $4.6m seem like subsidizing the tenant to stay on...

But now vacant, shd be good for people who want to buy for own stay rite...

Maybe quantum too big...

I think my relative also cannot tahan no rental going forward. He bought at 4.2m 2-3 years ago.

[auroraborealis]

just for tcss sake, say u own a few rcr/ocr price risen from 30-60%
if the situation of ccr price drop persist while rcr/ocr remain strong,
will u sell the rcr/ocr to buy 1 ccr?

must admit have been thinking but no conclusion so far

[radha08]

Bro, thanks for compliment, but I cannot wear this hat... Please do not call me that... Call me bro, please... If not I will disappear... Really... I am here to learn...

Bro, for all investments, please be void of emotions... Unless say u bot another home and your first home rent per out... Then don't sell 1st because it holds a lot of happy memory....

My townhouse in Pasir Panjang is like this... The price is good, rental sucks big time... But refuse to sell because family home for 15 years... My entire family has good memories of it and one of my kids will inherit this place...

As for the rest of my properties, it is but a ATM machine for my old (oops) mid age retirement....

Hahahahahah

cheers....BRO...thanks for sharing...u also seem the sort that would rather tcss in the forums as compared to tcss with people in real life......am i right...

[Shanhz]

cheers....BRO...thanks for sharing...u also seem the sort that would rather tcss in the forums as compared to tcss with people in real life......am i right...

you still trying to psycho him to buy your neighbouring unit?

[radha08]

Chestnut, thanks for the article.

I think the signal is kind of mixed.. One of my relative trying to sell his property in d10, condo for 5.5m 6 month ago and now will let go at 4.6m. No offer so far. Tenant left in July, vacant till now so maybe the reason to sell lower. From asking rental 13k to now 9k.

This is not run down property, well renovated.

So where are we now.

Ok here is my take....

Would you rather buy 1 x 5M D10....condo or 5 x 1M OCR condo....

with 5 x OCR condo what u can do is this....

1 x Family stay
3 X Rental
1 X MOTHER IN LAW stay....

Please ignore another stupid but FARNY idea from channel@08

[radha08]

you still trying to psycho him to buy your neighbouring unit?

bro mine low end one...my neighbours all pitch tent and go fishing at the beach......very soon i will join them..take a stroll down with my guitar...me and my wife will sit down under tree and i will play some some slow rock tunes from scorpions...rainbow..deep purple...then i will say to all bros/sis here....RELAK LA BRUDDER

[Shanhz]

bro mine low end one...my neighbours all pitch tent and go fishing at the beach......very soon i will join them..take a stroll down with my guitar...me and my wife will sit down under tree and i will play some some slow rock tunes from scorpions...rainbow..deep purple...then i will say to all bros/sis here....RELAK LA BRUDDER

bro dun say low or high end lah.

chinese got one saying, something like: gold house or silver house, best is still your own dog house.

your place is nice. holiday feeling. like everyday go chalet. shiok ah.

[cnud]

just for tcss sake, say u own a few rcr/ocr price risen from 30-60%
if the situation of ccr price drop persist while rcr/ocr remain strong,
will u sell the rcr/ocr to buy 1 ccr?

must admit have been thinking but no conclusion so far

If I am you, I will sell OCR/RCR and buy CCR for own stay. Siok

[radha08]

If I am you, I will sell OCR/RCR and buy CCR for own stay. Siok

ok i see how ccr living is like my sister renting apt in balmoral are next month she coming over to stay......can see sexy ang-moh i heard

[leesg123]

same theory as when HDB and private price is very close, of course people will cross over.

[august]

My opinion, yield compression will be insignificant. Come december 15 2015 when asean economy community come into place, singapore will be inundated by wave of asean workers and investors. I don't believe sg gov is purposely building itself into over supply. No other country on earth is as nimble and agile as sg government. Or as forward planning.

didnt this "forward planning" resulted in the govt's recent admission that it could have planned better?

hindsight is 20/20, the govt planned well in the past, but not in recent yrs.

[sherlock]

just for tcss sake, say u own a few rcr/ocr price risen from 30-60%
if the situation of ccr price drop persist while rcr/ocr remain strong,
will u sell the rcr/ocr to buy 1 ccr?

must admit have been thinking but no conclusion so far

There are 2 ways to read this.

1. RCR prices will recede after having moved too high or
2. CCR will move up naturally if the RCR prices persist to be stubborn

No one knows will it's go... a million $$ question

For me i'll go for a FH CCR as the downside is less compared to a LH RCR but bearing in mind of the ABSD and when you buy and sell. It might not be worth your while

[phantom_opera]

Ok here is my take....

Would you rather buy 1 x 5M D10....condo or 5 x 1M OCR condo....

with 5 x OCR condo what u can do is this....

1 x Family stay
3 X Rental
1 X MOTHER IN LAW stay....

Please ignore another stupid but FARNY idea from channel@08

If so much money, diversify liao, does not make sense to put all into properties

[chestnut]

cheers....BRO...thanks for sharing...u also seem the sort that would rather tcss in the forums as compared to tcss with people in real life......am i right...

Bro, my tcss in real life more... I still adjusting to forum life... All this seem complicated to me... Truely....

[radha08]

Bro, my tcss in real life more... I still adjusting to forum life... All this seem complicated to me... Truely....

cheers bro i dont talk much in real life...but here i am champion...toolazy to meet people sit down and tcss except family...

[radha08]

didnt this "forward planning" resulted in the govt's recent admission that it could have planned better?

hindsight is 20/20, the govt planned well in the past, but not in recent yrs.

now they planning...

http://news.asiaone.com/A1Business/N...21-384831.html

[focus]

One guru labelled this as the perfect storm for Singapore properties.
The current 2006-2012 boom is attributed to :-
1) Demand Side - Govt intend to go to 6million population rumours and finally confirmation

2) Supply Side - Undersupply of HDB Flats, Not necessarily of pte.

3) Affordability Ratio - Low interest rate as a result of QE and safe-haven by Europeans/US/Rich people to AAA-Rated country. It does not mean the rich are parking money in assets like real estate in singapore as evident in the lacklustre sales of CCR properties. It means money are just repatriated into financial institutions as a holding ground amid the crisis. The low interest rate translate to massive affordability for Singaporeans/PRs looking at OCR/RCR properties. Probably when they could only afford a 800k property, the low interest allows them to go up to $1.5mil.

When everything seems so rosy and the boom continues forever...the perfect storm is building up. He noted USA is in the midst of a recovery and it will most definitely be able to recover by 2014 onwards. Forward FX pricing of USD suggests traders are betting 2015 is the last year of QE(or Low interest rate).
1) Demand Side - Govt will continue with the 6million population plan.

2) Supply Side - HDB ramping up supply to meet the demand for public housing(80% of population). Massive completion of pte properties (build mainly for housing expats or as investments). Will there really be demand for so many properties if the population is capped at 6million? or the governments announced intent of 1/3 foreign legion(mostly 80% in HDB,20% in pte) in our population.

3) Low Interest Rate - The recovery will USA will mean reversal of carry-trade and rich money moving onto risk-on assets in US(in spite of any tax hikes). Liquidity(hot money) will moved massively out of Singapore and the low interest rate will not be there anymore. Your average singapore affordability of OCR/RCR properties at 1% suddenly is exploded into 3-4% and negative yields come in. Prices need to dropped in order for yield to be positive again (unless you forsee rentals increase which is unlikely if there is a massive oversupply in pte properties and adequate supply in HDB). Probably why the governmeent has started preparing current buyers for the 4% interest rate environment thru' the 40-60% LTV and 30yrs loan tenure.

He forsee a stable price environment for 2013 till 2014..Whether the storm will come to fruition in 2014-2015 is anybody's guess.
But he noted that some OCR properties are now priced like a prime property in Manhatten,usa. Is this the peak or the bottom in Singapore. Is that the peak or the bottom in USA. He noted investors(rich) moves money to where it is best treated. The rich buy in anticipation of a recovery, the poor buy in anticipation of further capital appreciation.

[hyenergix]

When we hit 6.5 million by 2020, most of the RCR will become CCR, and OCR will become RCR. I believe JLD could become the next CCR by 2020.

If the West recovers, they will resume to consumption mode, which will boost trade between East and West. Prob Singapore can cream off some of additional money that flows between East and West. Hopefully the higher interest can be off-set by higher pay and bonus.

[phantom_opera]

OCR 700psf is long gone, last seen only during Lehman crisis ... here is Japan export growth data .. now u know why any OCR condo will be minimum 1000psf??

[nav14]

When we hit 6.5 million by 2020, most of the RCR will become CCR, and OCR will become RCR. I believe JLD could become the next CCR by 2020.

If the West recovers, they will resume to consumption mode, which will boost trade between East and West. Prob Singapore can cream off some of additional money that flows between East and West. Hopefully the higher interest can be off-set by higher pay and bonus.

If US economy improve, rents will go up further which will offset the higher interest rates and need for property prices to decline to maintain yield.
Are we all not waiting for US economy to improve for better times here?

[hyenergix]

OCR 700psf is long gone, last seen only during Lehman crisis ... here is Japan export growth data .. now u know why any OCR condo will be minimum 1000psf??

Size is dropping...that's how $1000 psf or higher can be achieved in OCR.

[auroraborealis]

yes but size is demographics drive so unlikely to turn back unless birthrates up to > 2

Size is dropping...that's how $1000 psf or higher can be achieved in OCR.

[hyenergix]

If US economy improve, rents will go up further which will offset the higher interest rates and need for property prices to decline to maintain yield.
Are we all not waiting for US economy to improve for better times here?

Higher GDP/growth prob means more consumption, which is at the expense of environment. I recently tested out this theory for JB that is now destroying its environment at a rapid rate to achieve very good economic growth despite global recession.

[radha08]

OMG the sky is falling run bros/sis run...said CHICKEN LITTLE....sorry today family day watching this stupid show with my kids at home...