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Thread: Another GURU 2cent prediction...

  1. #1
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    Default Another GURU 2cent prediction...




    Nov 23, 2012 - PropertyGuru.com.sg

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    By Andrew Batt:
    The number of private home sales in Singapore could drop by more than 20 percent in 2013 after “spectacular” increases this year.

    David Neubronner, Head of Residential Project Sales for Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), issued the warning this week, suggesting that the number of sales this year, which is expected to reach 22,000 units, will correct to “more healthy levels of about 16,000 units” in a worst-case scenario.

    In an exclusive interview with The PropertyGuru, he said: “Put in perspective the jump this year, from 15,800 in 2011 to probably 22,000 by the end 2012, has been spectacular. We believe this is not sustainable moving forward and should correct next year."

    “In the worst scenario, we estimate the market to correct to the healthy levels of about 16,000 units which were achieved in 2010 and 2011. This is taking into account the anticipated economic slowdown in 2013, clampdown on residency and employment of foreigners.”

    Neubronner is also not ruling out a further wave of government cooling measures. He said: “The possibility is always there as long as the buying continues. Based on the recent robust sales volumes and concerns of market foaming, there is always the possibility of another round of measures to take the steam out of the market.”

    Neubronner predicts that landed property sales will remain resilient given the limited supply and perennial demand, along with the general aspiration of Singaporeans to upgrade to a landed property. The luxury segment has seen sales volume and values declining over the past year and, according to Neubronner, should bottom out any time soon.

    “We anticipate a recovery next year given the values and opportunity on offer,” he added.

    The mass and middle market segments are expected to see most of the correcting in 2013, he said, adding that these sectors have been running up rapidly over the past year.

    Neubronner also expects the proportion of foreign buyers, which now stands at roughly 20 percent, to stabilise. He said: “Singapore will continue to attract foreign buying interest for a million reasons and we believe the series of measures introduced over the past years will more likely subdue the Singaporeans appetite than the foreigners.”

    Neubronner concluded by saying: “Although sales volume will decline, we expect prices to stabilise next year. The fundamentals, like a stable economy with high employment, low interest rates, a robust leasing market in the suburban areas and the overall bullish sentiments, are still strong and we do not see these changing in 2013.”














  2. #2
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    This is the problem when people dont need to be responsible for what they say... they just say anything that gets them on the headlines.

    These are the same analysts who predicted that property prices will plunge 30% in 2012 after the CM5 which included the 10% ABSD for foreigners.

    At most we should ignore these people.

    So far, my prediction is better than this chap ... if u check my posts since 2011 and early 2012, I predicted that prices will move up abt 1% every month/quarter and so far it is spot on. They should give me some award, I think.... Something like Best Property Office Boy award!

    DKSG

  3. #3
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    So what's your prediction going forward?



    Quote Originally Posted by DKSG
    This is the problem when people dont need to be responsible for what they say... they just say anything that gets them on the headlines.

    These are the same analysts who predicted that property prices will plunge 30% in 2012 after the CM5 which included the 10% ABSD for foreigners.

    At most we should ignore these people.

    So far, my prediction is better than this chap ... if u check my posts since 2011 and early 2012, I predicted that prices will move up abt 1% every month/quarter and so far it is spot on. They should give me some award, I think.... Something like Best Property Office Boy award!

    DKSG

  4. #4
    tweet @condoexchange

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    Drop in numbers could only mean prices UP UP UP since we not reach 6mil target yet.

  5. #5
    OCR properties going to crash!

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    They will sure not give you any award because they are discouraging people to buy properties lah! They would prefer you keep money in CPF and in the banks or buy unit trusts or insurance or their bonds or endowment... Create jobs for bankers, insurance agents, fund managers etc, provide cheap money to all their companies, investments, ...
    If follow what you said, cannot lah!

    Quote Originally Posted by DKSG
    This is the problem when people dont need to be responsible for what they say... they just say anything that gets them on the headlines.

    These are the same analysts who predicted that property prices will plunge 30% in 2012 after the CM5 which included the 10% ABSD for foreigners.

    At most we should ignore these people.

    So far, my prediction is better than this chap ... if u check my posts since 2011 and early 2012, I predicted that prices will move up abt 1% every month/quarter and so far it is spot on. They should give me some award, I think.... Something like Best Property Office Boy award!

    DKSG

  6. #6
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    Eeerrmmm ... I didnt encourage people to buy properties.

    I am neutral. People who wants to buy should buy, people who feel like selling should sell.

    There are always people who think that property prices would drop x% by 20xx. Then these people better dont buy lor !

    DKSG

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    So what's your prediction going forward?
    I agreed with DKSG. Buy within your mean...

    Anyway, the reason why so many people are still buying bcos of Singaporean ( for EC ) are :-

    1) Just pure rich and no where to spend their money.
    2) Interest rate are very very low now, only 1%
    3) Inflation rate at % to 5% each year, and labour and materials cost went up so much.
    4) For their kids.
    5) No other better investment choice.

  8. #8
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    It is a combination of push and pull factors that is making people to buy property. And Singaporeans are not alone in this region.

    Main push factor is that inflation is so high while deposit rate rate is so low.Anyone holding huge amount of cash saving would want to diversify their saving into assets to hedge against inflation. Gap between bank deposit and inflation is around 4 to 5%, paper money include S$ is slowly losing its shine. If fact, it has been quite sometime that analysts or financial advisers are talking about CASH IS KING.

    The pull factors will of course be interest rates and healthy rental yield

  9. #9
    tweet @condoexchange

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    Quote Originally Posted by DKSG
    Eeerrmmm ... I didnt encourage people to buy properties.

    I am neutral. People who wants to buy should buy, people who feel like selling should sell.

    There are always people who think that property prices would drop x% by 20xx. Then these people better dont buy lor !

    DKSG
    Office Boy. Chance to upgrade yourself.

    Real Estate Analyst
    Huttons Asia Pte Ltd
    North-East
    To support our expansion, the Huttons Real Estate Group is looking for motivated individuals to grow with us.
    Responsibilities:
    Maintain databases of real estate information, for both local and selected foreign markets
    Source for necessary information to support research work
    Analyze data to provide insights to assist in planning and marketing activities
    Keep abreast of latest developments and provide regular updates
    Prepare tables and charts for presentation
    Ad-hoc duties as assigned
    Requirements:
    Diploma in Real Estate or Economics
    Good familiarity with the local real estate market
    Relevant working experience will be preferred
    Strong proficiency in Microsoft Excel and Powerpoint
    Good English Communication skills – both written and verbal
    Bilingual; able to liaise with English & Mandarin speaking personnel
    Independent, with good initiative, responsible and a team player
    Have a proactive and positive work attitude with good analytical and interpersonal skills
    Singaporean or Malaysian PR preferred

    Interested applicants, please email full resume, including current and expected salaries, reason for leaving and availability date to [email protected]

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    It is a combination of push and pull factors that is making people to buy property. And Singaporeans are not alone in this region.

    Main push factor is that inflation is so high while deposit rate rate is so low.Anyone holding huge amount of cash saving would want to diversify their saving into assets to hedge against inflation. Gap between bank deposit and inflation is around 4 to 5%, paper money include S$ is slowly losing its shine. If fact, it has been quite sometime that analysts or financial advisers are talking about CASH IS KING.

    The pull factors will of course be interest rates and healthy rental yield
    But another school of thought on deflation actually advocates CASH IS KING moving forward (predicting of coz & not wait till it happens).

  11. #11
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    I am sure a lot of the people here are qualified if not over-qualified for this position.
    Quote Originally Posted by carbuncle
    Office Boy. Chance to upgrade yourself.

    Real Estate Analyst
    Huttons Asia Pte Ltd
    North-East
    To support our expansion, the Huttons Real Estate Group is looking for motivated individuals to grow with us.
    Responsibilities:
    Maintain databases of real estate information, for both local and selected foreign markets
    Source for necessary information to support research work
    Analyze data to provide insights to assist in planning and marketing activities
    Keep abreast of latest developments and provide regular updates
    Prepare tables and charts for presentation
    Ad-hoc duties as assigned
    Requirements:
    Diploma in Real Estate or Economics
    Good familiarity with the local real estate market
    Relevant working experience will be preferred
    Strong proficiency in Microsoft Excel and Powerpoint
    Good English Communication skills – both written and verbal
    Bilingual; able to liaise with English & Mandarin speaking personnel
    Independent, with good initiative, responsible and a team player
    Have a proactive and positive work attitude with good analytical and interpersonal skills
    Singaporean or Malaysian PR preferred

    Interested applicants, please email full resume, including current and expected salaries, reason for leaving and availability date to [email protected]

  12. #12
    Amber

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    SINGAPORE: During a "Our Singapore Conversation" dialogue session, national development minister Khaw Boon Wan said Singapore has the ability and resources to meet the demand for more HDB flats.

    Housing was one of the hot issues at the dialogue at Sembawang Group Representation Constituency (GRC).

    The question posed at the session was: what kind of Singapore would you like to have in 2030?

    More than 300 residents participated in the dialogue.

    Ellen Lee, the Member of Parliament (MP) for Sembawang GRC said: "There are groups who are concerned about housing; on how can they afford housing for their children. Of course these are issues that will have to be thrashed out, because it's a question of expectation as well."

    In response, Mr Khaw assured Singaporeans there will be more than enough HDB flats to accommodate the rising demand.

    In the last two years, the government had built about 25,000 flats a year - with 2012 breaking the record for the largest supply of Build-To-Order (BTO) flats in a year, he said.

    The BTO system was introduced in 2002.

    Next year, at least 20,000 more flats will be built.

    Mr Khaw, who is also a MP for Sembawang GRC, added this figure exceeds the number of first-time marriages per year in Singapore - which is about 15,000.

    He said even if Singapore's birth rate increases, the number of new flats will be able to accommodate the increased demand.

    Another concern raised by participants was the affordability of flats.

    The minister said that prices of resale flats are high because there is still an imbalance between supply and demand, but he is confident that prices will adjust within the next few years.

    Apart from housing, participants also discussed the values that are important to Singapore.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alan Tam
    I agreed with DKSG. Buy within your mean...

    Anyway, the reason why so many people are still buying bcos of Singaporean ( for EC ) are :-

    1) Just pure rich and no where to spend their money.
    2) Interest rate are very very low now, only 1%
    3) Inflation rate at % to 5% each year, and labour and materials cost went up so much.
    4) For their kids.
    5) No other better investment choice.
    just to add on, if KenoBiWan has to warn developers about the purpose of having ECs, we can be sure that prices aren't going south despite all the CMs

  14. #14
    tweet @condoexchange

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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008
    I am sure a lot of the people here are qualified if not over-qualified for this position.
    not too many have dip in real estate or econs

  15. #15
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    They just need to know the no. of good investment properties you have and the testimonial from here. People like laguna, Chestnut, Devilplate, etc., will be overqualified.
    Quote Originally Posted by carbuncle
    not too many have dip in real estate or econs

  16. #16
    Junior

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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008
    They just need to know the no. of good investment properties you have and the testimonial from here. People like laguna, Chestnut, Devilplate, etc., will be overqualified.
    Bro, that's potentially my retirement part time job leh.... I think waste talent if I don't contribute leh... There is another agenda lah... I share with u when time is ripe... For me, it all about planning... Hahahaha


  17. #17
    Office Boy

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    Quote Originally Posted by chestnut
    Bro, that's potentially my retirement part time job leh.... I think waste talent if I don't contribute leh... There is another agenda lah... I share with u when time is ripe... For me, it all about planning... Hahahaha

    Retirement then retire properly la ... what for everyday people call you cheongster style ?

    You know what is the meaning of being an agent bo ?

    Not say you like do what then do what leh ? You think property agent are really "self employed" ar ? They call themselves self employed because no one dare to employ them - too much liabilities.

    When customer call, you go get keys, open unit for viewing, spend 45 mins run here run there, client spent 5 mins walk one round and say "oh! so thats how things turn out, quite different from showflat wor" ... then say thank U, and you have to then return the keys.

    Seller then chase u for updates, buyer sooo kaaa sooo kaa answer your call, else dont answer ...

    Thats a small part of being an agent ...

    U sure you want to be one ?

    DKSG

  18. #18
    Junior

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    Bro, hahaha... Agree lah... For me, it is not going to be that way.. Very long story la.... Ok lah, I doing it for 1 of my kids. It's like help the kid. Pass the kid the units we have and let her take the rental comm. hey amount on rental quite ok leh... Don't really want to dwell but if don't tell, keep u in suspense...hahaha

    I plan too much... So wifey and me will help the kid along the way... Hahaha

  19. #19
    Office Boy

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    Quote Originally Posted by chestnut
    Bro, hahaha... Agree lah... For me, it is not going to be that way.. Very long story la.... Ok lah, I doing it for 1 of my kids. It's like help the kid. Pass the kid the units we have and let her take the rental comm. hey amount on rental quite ok leh... Don't really want to dwell but if don't tell, keep u in suspense...hahaha

    I plan too much... So wifey and me will help the kid along the way... Hahaha
    I can only say ... you are crippling your kids. Make them grow up with all the help. Maybe thats your way of feeling important to their lives ...

    Office Boy usually dont comment on other people's private business. I only talk properties.

    DKSG

  20. #20
    Junior

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    Quote Originally Posted by DKSG
    I can only say ... you are crippling your kids. Make them grow up with all the help. Maybe thats your way of feeling important to their lives ...

    Office Boy usually dont comment on other people's private business. I only talk properties.

    DKSG
    Bro, u have kids?

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