QE4 is coming?

[phantom_opera]

In a few days time, US Fed will need to announce what to do after Op Twist stopped in Dec 2012 .... market basically expects further expansion of balance sheet by 40b per month (with existing purchase of MBS at 45b per month) ... so comes Jan 2013, US Fed balance sheet will probably expand at 85b per month, to give an idea, it is kind of printing 200 units of recent Prince Charles Crescent top bid per month

Sooner or later, US Fed will hold all MBS and long term UST





We are living in ever interesting world

[phantom_opera]

In expectation of further printing action from Helicopter Ben, it is of little wonder that TIPS returns 8% this year

The iShares Barclays Treasury Inflation Protected Securities Bond Fund (NYSEArca: TIP) has posted a total return of 8% this year and holds nearly $23 billion in assets

[Allthepies]

so we are expecting >20% return in equity investment for next year too?

[phantom_opera]

China and the corporations of China under the 5 year plan are directed specifically to secure food, raw materials, energy and stability for the Chinese Nation, QE3 and QE4 are in my opinion aimed at allowing US companies access to the funds to compete at a global level in the acquisition of these resources at the expense of internal inflation and other by products of Quantitative Easing.

With an impressive uncatalogued of overseas investments, deals and ripening relationships, China is planning 50 years ahead for its own supply of the finite commodities. It is leaving every other country stranded on the starting line. Some of them are even facing backwards.

Bernanke is the first Westerner to answer the challenge.

[indomie]

China and the corporations of China under the 5 year plan are directed specifically to secure food, raw materials, energy and stability for the Chinese Nation, QE3 and QE4 are in my opinion aimed at allowing US companies access to the funds to compete at a global level in the acquisition of these resources at the expense of internal inflation and other by products of Quantitative Easing.

With an impressive uncatalogued of overseas investments, deals and ripening relationships, China is planning 50 years ahead for its own supply of the finite commodities. It is leaving every other country stranded on the starting line. Some of them are even facing backwards.

Bernanke is the first Westerner to answer the challenge.

U are right indeed. Green revolution has failed. Crops yield is not going to increase very much anymore. We very much hit the limit of genetic modification. The dream of infinite power source from nuclear, solar and wind is also hit the plateau. A good example would be a bio fuel where it actually take away a large portion of food producing farm land for the sake of making fuel for car. No more cheap energy and food, therefore there is not going to be enough for everybody in the future. The only way inflation is heading is up. From now on additional efficiency on food front is at the cost of energy front and vice versa. All the countries now (especially USA) is jockeying to buy tommorow resouces at the current price by running into debt. Should they have a great confident that tomorrow technology can solve the scarcity they will not rack up huge debt as the current level. Because they don't have the technology.

[minority]

Interesting I always learn something new in this forum . We need more such post !

[Laguna]

these are good insight
thanks, learnt something today

[Allthepies]

nice theory; boost my confidence tat holding money in bank is not the right thing to do.

[Rosy]

so we are expecting >20% return in equity investment for next year too?

I am game for it.

[Shanhz]

very insightful thread. this forum have alot of guru in everything. for me, i am guru in nothing. so have to learn.

The iShares Barclays Treasury Inflation Protected Securities Bond Fund (NYSEArca: TIP) has posted a total return of 8% this year and holds nearly $23 billion in assets

is this a good fund to invest in for protection of capital?

[phantom_opera]

GUNNEDAH, Australia (AP) - Mr Tony Clift's family has plowed the rich black soil of Australia's Liverpool Plains for six generations. The thought of selling never crossed his mind - until a Chinese company came to town.

Shenhua Watermark Coal offered to buy farms at unheard-of prices. The decision wasn't easy, Mr Clift says. His pioneer ancestors settled the land in 1832. But farming is a business nowadays, and selling his 2,600ha made business sense.

"If someone offers you a whole heap of money, you've got to take it," says the 50-year-old father of two, sitting at the kitchen table of the palatial hilltop home he built with the windfall. A sea of yellow stretches out below, canola fields planted on less fertile land he bought 40km to the north.

Soaring coal prices fueled by China's economic growth have made mining parts of the Australian landscape far more lucrative than farming it. It's one example of how China's emergence as a global trading power may transform countries in ways never contemplated and not yet fully understood.

[phantom_opera]

Tripolar:

1. US / Europe / Japan i.e. G7
2. BRIC
3. Resource rich countries e.g. AUZ, IND, Saudi, Canada

With rise of baby boomers in BRIC, we are seeing huge demand on resources (food, commodities), it is no wonder that oil price surged from 20USD to 100USD and now China is buying farm land in AUD for unheard of prices

In other words, even if US Fed never prints, we will expect much higher prices for food / commodities .... fresh food price will be much higher as China/India middle class demands higher quality .. it also explain why I am paying higher and higher prices for high quality Chinese herbs

With this, we see Arab Spring, South China Sea conflict, Diayu Island dispute, shift of wealth to owners of resources ...

Even Singapore has its own Arab Spring ... the lowest strata of society cannot survive in high inflationary environment without help from the garmen (PUB bill pegged to oil price, fresh food price soars)

[hyenergix]

Rising land, rental, COE, labour, material and food costs are all pointing to bad inflation. Next year all these will be fully factored in and we might see more unhappiness from the lower to middle working classes.

[Rosy]

Rising land, rental, COE, labour, material and food costs are all pointing to bad inflation. Next year all these will be fully factored in and we might see more unhappiness from the lower to middle working classes.

Will they be better off in a recession?

[phantom_opera]

Similarly in SG:

1. PAP
2. Rich consumers / biz owners (REITs, property developers, banks)
3. Those who own resources - land, properties, farm land in MY/IND

4. Future underclass where saving is eroded by inflation

group (2) is going everywhere buying GLS, enbloc, lands in MY/IND ...and they will take their biz private so they can hold long long (read SC Global)

[hyenergix]

Will they be better off in a recession?

I doubt prices will come down a lot, as most of them are sunken in costs and controlled by the government e.g. land, COE. Wages will come down a lot though, so recession might make things even worse. In another word, no way out for the lower income group. Middle income group still has some options.

[hyenergix]

Similarly in SG:

1. PAP
2. Rich consumers / biz owners (REITs, property developers, banks)
3. Those who own resources - land, properties, farm land in MY/IND

4. Future underclass where saving is eroded by inflation

group (2) is going everywhere buying GLS, enbloc, lands in MY/IND ...and they will take their biz private so they can hold long long (read SC Global)

Yup, it is now a fight over resources that can yield cash flow in future.

[chestnut]

I doubt prices will come down a lot, as most of them are sunken in costs and controlled by the government e.g. land, COE. Wages will come down a lot though, so recession might make things even worse. In another word, no way out for the lower income group. Middle income group still has some options.

Recession brings everyone on a "more" equal platform. "Opportunities" arises with "recession".

Inflation widens the "gap". The impact to rich is minimal comparative to the lesser.

[Rysk]

In a few days time, US Fed will need to announce what to do after Op Twist stopped in Dec 2012 .... market basically expects further expansion of balance sheet by 40b per month (with existing purchase of MBS at 45b per month) ... so comes Jan 2013, US Fed balance sheet will probably expand at 85b per month, to give an idea, it is kind of printing 200 units of recent Prince Charles Crescent top bid per month

Sooner or later, US Fed will hold all MBS and long term UST





We are living in ever interesting world

I've already warned MR B on 5th Oct 2012..

http://forums.condosingapore.com/sho...2285&page=1528

All these are tell tale signs that price will be looking UP UP UP further in the coming months

I have already warned MR B once during Aug this year.. just be prepared for another round in Feb/Mar next year..

[hyenergix]

Recession brings everyone on a "more" equal platform. "Opportunities" arises with "recession".

Inflation widens the "gap". The impact to rich is minimal comparative to the lesser.

I tot recession will allow the upper and middle -come classes to mop the cheaper assets, while the lower-income classes have to be more prudent and unable to capitalise on the opportunities. When the recession ends, then the gap will widen even further just like what happened in 2008-2009.

[chestnut]

I tot recession will allow the upper and middle -come classes to mop the cheaper assets, while the lower-income classes have to be more prudent and unable to capitalise on the opportunities. When the recession ends, then the gap will widen even further just like what happened in 2008-2009.

The upper and middle income classes will get burn by stocks lar.....
The lower income do not dabble in stocks...

So the division will be less...

But once recession over, the middle class got chance to move up...

The lower class (sad to say this) will stay below.... Some will move up... Very few... Because in Singapore, we are very education focus... They do not have opportunities to start biz as start up cost very high... In the past, this lower class got very good chance... Labour low, shop prices low, rental low... Today, everything high !!!!

So this recent round of property increase... Many middle income who bot, actually elevated themselves... The "higher income" who did not buy, found they wealth same as the middle income who "invested".

Those who bot many, keok tio GL.

[Shanhz]

The upper and middle income classes will get burn by stocks lar.....
The lower income do not dabble in stocks...

who say lower income dun dabble stocks? I got play leh. kenah burn. become lower lower income.

[chestnut]

who say lower income dun dabble stocks? I got play leh. kenah burn. become lower lower income.

Bro, what is your definition of lower income.
Can you please share the salary bracket range???

Hahahahaha

Definition here
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/pape...ple/op-s17.pdf

[mcmlxxvi]

U are right indeed. Green revolution has failed. Crops yield is not going to increase very much anymore. We very much hit the limit of genetic modification. The dream of infinite power source from nuclear, solar and wind is also hit the plateau. A good example would be a bio fuel where it actually take away a large portion of food producing farm land for the sake of making fuel for car. No more cheap energy and food, therefore there is not going to be enough for everybody in the future. The only way inflation is heading is up. From now on additional efficiency on food front is at the cost of energy front and vice versa. All the countries now (especially USA) is jockeying to buy tommorow resouces at the current price by running into debt. Should they have a great confident that tomorrow technology can solve the scarcity they will not rack up huge debt as the current level. Because they don't have the technology.

Err..... recently they discovered water on the Moon or something like that rite...

Sorry I not so deep like you bros.

[Shanhz]

Bro, what is your definition of lower income.
Can you please share the salary bracket range???

Hahahahaha

i think............ cannot afford mt sinai.. is considered lower income
since 7k can afford mt sinai.. my salary only 3.5k.. coz i only afford half the price.. sollie.. less than half.

i think my salary 2k

[indomie]

Err..... recently they discovered water on the Moon or something like that rite...

Sorry I not so deep like you bros.

I am grateful enough they invented viagra....

[chestnut]

i think............ cannot afford mt sinai.. is considered lower income
since 7k can afford mt sinai.. my salary only 3.5k.. coz i only afford half the price.. sollie.. less than half.

i think my salary 2k

Bro, u dont qualify !!! Hahahahaha

http://www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/pape...ple/op-s17.pdf

Paiseh... if your salary really 2k, I think I better stop sharing things with you liao....

[chestnut]

I am grateful enough they invented viagra....

Tongkat Ali. Go green

[Shanhz]

Bro, u dont qualify !!! Hahahahaha

http://www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/pape...ple/op-s17.pdf

Paiseh... if your salary really 2k, I think I better stop sharing things with you liao....

wah bro i really respect u man.. homework do gao-gao.. you statistician isit?

[phantom_opera]

Bro, u dont qualify !!! Hahahahaha

http://www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/pape...ple/op-s17.pdf

Paiseh... if your salary really 2k, I think I better stop sharing things with you liao....

interesting ratio of P90 to P10 is 9x (i.e. 9k against 1k lol)