Senior
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...ent-level.html
The central bank replaced a more modest stimulus program due to expire at year-end with a fresh round of Treasury purchases that will increase its balance sheet. It committed to monthly purchases of $45bn in Treasuries on top of the $40bn per month in mortgage-backed bonds it started buying in September.
Music of the night
*FED BOOSTS QE WITH $45 BILLION IN MONTHLY TREASURY PURCHASES
*FED TO KEEP BUYING MORTGAGE BONDS AT PACE OF $40 BLN PER MONTH
*FED SAYS MONTHLY PURCHASES TO TOTAL $85 BLN
*FED ADOPTS ECONOMIC THRESHOLDS FOR POLICY TIGHTENING
*FED: RATES TO STAY EXCEPTIONALLY LOW WITH JOBLESS ABOVE 6.5%
*FED: RATES TO STAY LOW WITH INFLATION SEEN AT 2.5% OR LESS
the only surprise is hard targeting i.e. interest rate will increase of unemployment rate lowered to 6.5% or inflation beyond 2.5% .... of course, the pace of increase can be at turtle speedmarket thinks the 1st int rate increase might happen in mid 2015
USD weakening is the only result, market still waiting for fiscal cliff
Last edited by phantom_opera; 13-12-12 at 06:53.
Ride at your own risk !!!
Senior
Could take another year or 2 to get unemploment rate down to 6.5%.
Junior
May take forever.Originally Posted by kane
Music of the night
Market priced in 30pc chance of first rate hike in mid 2015
Still got 2.5y
Ride at your own risk !!!
Junior
Hi, how you get the 30percent figure?
Also, it means 70percent chance of 1st rate hike after 2015?
ipropertyguru
So to summarise, is this good news to vested properties owners?
i'm Buaya ! Girls BEWARE !!...
heya, even let's say,... if no news, everything stays where it is... that's already good news to vested owners liow...
Music of the night
as market expected 85b increase of balance sheet per month, at least Bernanke did not disappoint, after 1y, US Fed balance sheet will be 4T, debt 18T (from current level of 16.3T) at the end of 2013
Bernanke is a master to keep market flat (or market has completely front-run him?) and slow destroyer of USDCan Mr Khaw keep land price flat?
Ride at your own risk !!!
Newbie
So will more potential property buyers on the sidelines start to take action? Interest rate so low .. where else to park your cash?
Music of the night
since SG inflation started in around 2005 ... except one year of deflation during Lehman, say this cycle you have 2015 - 2005 = 10y - 1y Lehman = 9y of 6% real inflation
money in bank 1%, so effectively lose 5%pa ... 9x5 = 45%if you have large amount of $$ in CPF OA even worse ...
do nothing is not an option but it may be already too late
Ride at your own risk !!!
Junior
Keeping the land cost flat is almost impossble unless no more bidding and all use for HDB
what they can do is perhaps, add in another condition, not the highest bidder will get; but the developer must also come with social economic impact (add in social values). A greener environment, a elderly friendly project, a development which promote 3 or more generation living, etc...that will be a good starting point.
as market expected 85b increase of balance sheet per month, at least Bernanke did not disappoint, after 1y, US Fed balance sheet will be 4T, debt 18T (from current level of 16.3T) at the end of 2013
Bernanke is a master to keep market flat (or market has completely front-run him?) and slow destroyer of USD
Music of the night
the recent land bids near MRT all record breaking
- Jurong East 700psf
- Tanah Merah 790psf
- Bukit Merah 975psf / Prince Charles 960psf
- Bishan 850psf (ok lah maintain)
- Farrer Road 1107psf
CAPL, CDL and UOL are now more aggressive than FEO in bidding so sooner or later it will force FEO to be aggressive too
Ride at your own risk !!!
Junior
unlikely to set such rules for private developers, only can do it in their own backyard for HDB & ECs ...Keeping the land cost flat is almost impossble unless no more bidding and all use for HDB
what they can do is perhaps, add in another condition, not the highest bidder will get; but the developer must also come with social economic impact (add in social values). A greener environment, a elderly friendly project, a development which promote 3 or more generation living, etc...that will be a good starting point.
GOD good old days
2013 Redhill to hit selling price of $2,000?
Let's say...
2013 ave psf $1400 for new launches islandwide..
2014 $1600..
2015 $1800..
Then dip 20% post 2015
2016 $1440..
Can stomach this?
Music of the night
no guarantee rate hike will come, market only pricing in 30+% of chance in mid 2015 ... first cut will be 25 basis points only then may wait donkey years again b4 next
imo, it is more likely that US debt hit 20T in 2016, bond vigilantes may strike to force the interest rate up
Ride at your own risk !!!
GOD good old days
Agree. But Bernanke is signalling the market with actual target figures. 2.5% inflation and 6.5% unemployment. Seems to me he is preparing hikes in anticipation of more solid and rapid recovery..
Music of the night
it may be purely political ... remember unemployment rate does not include those giving up searching for jobs
Ride at your own risk !!!
Junior
Too lazy to search for latest report...
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05...001-2003-2011/
To create 1% of the total job market = how many people???
You determine yourself...
Music of the night
inline the graph
Ride at your own risk !!!
GOD good old days
Difficult but not impossible.
Worldwide inflation will also hit USA. If one believes the inflation story, then hitting 2.5% is not difficult right?
For unemployment figures:
Junior
Actually this is what the US want, but the rest of the world won't do. In the interest of protecting their own economy the rest of the world won't let USD to depreciate too much. Strong USD is what keeping US inflation artificially low. If BRIC countries reduce its USD reserve, their own currency will fly high. That will kill their competitiveness in a heart beat.no guarantee rate hike will come, market only pricing in 30+% of chance in mid 2015 ... first cut will be 25 basis points only then may wait donkey years again b4 next
imo, it is more likely that US debt hit 20T in 2016, bond vigilantes may strike to force the interest rate up
GOD good old days
Junior
surely, with USD so depreciated now.. (imported) inflation should be quite high for them, no? are they THAT self sufficient?
Newbie
but for BRICs to reduce USD reserve to zero, they need an alternative
doesn't look like will have better candidates
JPY will prob match or outperform USD printing; EUR think take another 10 years or so for the banking & fiscal union to form & complement monetary union; RMB mayb another 10-20years
just stay vested in SGD and SG properties
no guarantee rate hike will come, market only pricing in 30+% of chance in mid 2015 ... first cut will be 25 basis points only then may wait donkey years again b4 next
imo, it is more likely that US debt hit 20T in 2016, bond vigilantes may strike to force the interest rate up
Last edited by auroraborealis; 13-12-12 at 10:49.
if you dont't own any property, you're short. take cover quickly
Newbie
must give it to them, achieving energy self sufficiency so soon
if they follow china style buying resources elsewhere (like another bro/sis stated in other thread) & pump in more to develop their own argi further, i don't think it's an impossible feat for them
if you dont't own any property, you're short. take cover quickly
Junior
Which is easier to do, bring unemployment from
1. 10 to 8
2. 8 to 6
3. 6 to 4
4. 4 to 2
5. 2 to 1
All above in %.
Food for thot
东方
I just effectively about to clean out my CPF OA right on the dot 2 Jan 2013.since SG inflation started in around 2005 ... except one year of deflation during Lehman, say this cycle you have 2015 - 2005 = 10y - 1y Lehman = 9y of 6% real inflation
money in bank 1%, so effectively lose 5%pa ... 9x5 = 45%
do nothing is not an option but it may be already too late
GOD good old days
They did it from 10% to 8% in 2 years.
8% to 6% is difficult but not impossible. Another 3 years?
So 2015 Mr B will resurface...
东方
Don't be silly.... gahmen will not say no to increasing revenue. Hey, the civil servants need to beat inflation with their salaries too right?Keeping the land cost flat is almost impossble unless no more bidding and all use for HDB
what they can do is perhaps, add in another condition, not the highest bidder will get; but the developer must also come with social economic impact (add in social values). A greener environment, a elderly friendly project, a development which promote 3 or more generation living, etc...that will be a good starting point.
As it is, bus captains already too lowly paid.
Cleaners and healthcare salaries cost are going to go up.
Plus infra still not up to the mark need additional $ pump in to improve.
MP and public officials quality lack lustre, full of scammy character, so need more moolah to attract real talents with upright characters.
Where else to get the money from for all these and more?
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