Total Outstanding Hosing loan is starting to drop ?

[richwang]

"MSB I.5B Banks: Loans and Advances of ACUs to Non-Bank Customers by Industry","S$ MILLION"
"END OF PERIOD","CONSUMER LOANS - HOUSING AND BRIDGING LOANS"
2004 Nov,1399.7
2004 Dec,1408.9
2005 Jan,1440.9
2005 Feb,1446.3
2005 Mar,1438.1
2005 Apr,1469.8
2005 May,1477.4
2005 Jun,1501.0
2005 Jul,1442.9
2005 Aug,1495.6
2005 Sep,1474.5
2005 Oct,1479.0
2005 Nov,1473.4
2005 Dec,1444.3
2006 Jan,1447.0
2006 Feb,1449.0
2006 Mar,1469.6
2006 Apr,1533.1
2006 May,1620.1
2006 Jun,1629.7
2006 Jul,1671.3
2006 Aug,1682.4
2006 Sep,1826.3
2006 Oct,1822.6
2006 Nov,1901.0
2006 Dec,1914.5
2007 Jan,1887.2
2007 Feb,1919.5
2007 Mar,1961.9
2007 Apr,2015.0
2007 May,2023.5
2007 Jun,2147.7
2007 Jul,2189.4
2007 Aug,2237.0
2007 Sep,2286.2
2007 Oct,2333.9
2007 Nov,2434.9
2007 Dec,2449.6
2008 Jan,2514.6
2008 Feb,2609.0
2008 Mar,2644.9
2008 Apr,2699.5
2008 May,2668.8
2008 Jun,2809.6
2008 Jul,2824.8
2008 Aug,2903.5
2008 Sep,2953.8
2008 Oct,2966.4
2008 Nov,2938.2
2008 Dec,2848.4
2009 Jan,2947.6
2009 Feb,2964.5
2009 Mar,2943.0
2009 Apr,2908.5
2009 May,3017.9
2009 Jun,3110.6
2009 Jul,3098.4
2009 Aug,3002.3
2009 Sep,3155.6
2009 Oct,3236.6
2009 Nov,3232.1
2009 Dec,3002.2
2010 Jan,2990.8
2010 Feb,2968.2
2010 Mar,2958.3
2010 Apr,2897.7
2010 May,2857.6
2010 Jun,2854.8
2010 Jul,2929.1
2010 Aug,2927.9
2010 Sep,3008.6
2010 Oct,3061.0
2010 Nov,3015.6
2010 Dec,3043.2
2011 Jan,3068.0
2011 Feb,3080.0
2011 Mar,3078.5
2011 Apr,3147.5
2011 May,3159.6
2011 Jun,3149.6
2011 Jul,3134.6
2011 Aug,3116.7
2011 Sep,3303.1
2011 Oct,3291.6
2011 Nov,3384.0
2011 Dec,3407.0
2012 Jan,3376.1
2012 Feb,3434.7
2012 Mar,3405.2
2012 Apr,3685.6
2012 May,3391.5
2012 Jun,3917.6
2012 Jul,4060.9
2012 Aug,4078.1
2012 Sep,4083.2
2012 Oct,4029.0
2012 Nov,3442.1

https://secure.mas.gov.sg/msb-xml/Re...I&tableID=I.5B

Thanks,
Richard

[phantom_opera]

this is ACU ... how about DBU?

[Sleepyhead]

this is ACU ... how about DBU?

Sorry, what is ACU / DBU?

[richwang]

DBU is still increasing ...
========================
"MSB I.5A Banks: Loans and Advances of DBUs to Non-Bank Customers by Industry","S$ MILLION"
"END OF PERIOD","CONSUMER LOANS - HOUSING AND BRIDGING LOANS"
1991 Jan,5861.0
1991 Feb,5821.2
1991 Mar,5863.8
1991 Apr,5942.5
1991 May,6056.6
1991 Jun,6193.1
1991 Jul,6429.7
1991 Aug,6540.2
1991 Sep,6625.7
1991 Oct,6729.6
1991 Nov,6835.7
1991 Dec,6976.3
1992 Jan,7189.6
1992 Feb,7185.1
1992 Mar,7333.8
1992 Apr,7406.0
1992 May,7461.9
1992 Jun,7648.5
1992 Jul,7851.1
1992 Aug,8043.0
1992 Sep,8206.0
1992 Oct,8354.3
1992 Nov,8480.2
1992 Dec,8626.3
1993 Jan,9300.6
1993 Feb,9414.5
1993 Mar,9497.6
1993 Apr,9779.7
1993 May,9991.9
1993 Jun,10259.2
1993 Jul,10606.0
1993 Aug,10914.4
1993 Sep,11237.7
1993 Oct,11379.5
1993 Nov,11512.1
1993 Dec,11718.5
1994 Jan,12046.8
1994 Feb,12140.7
1994 Mar,12439.8
1994 Apr,12578.2
1994 May,12785.8
1994 Jun,13011.9
1994 Jul,13247.9
1994 Aug,13634.8
1994 Sep,13864.8
1994 Oct,14097.9
1994 Nov,14347.2
1994 Dec,14702.8
1995 Jan,14999.8
1995 Feb,15189.8
1995 Mar,15357.5
1995 Apr,15465.4
1995 May,15715.9
1995 Jun,15923.0
1995 Jul,16137.5
1995 Aug,16316.1
1995 Sep,16618.5
1995 Oct,16933.5
1995 Nov,17210.8
1995 Dec,17482.8
1996 Jan,17861.1
1996 Feb,18107.5
1996 Mar,18266.3
1996 Apr,18572.6
1996 May,18922.8
1996 Jun,19346.8
1996 Jul,19788.9
1996 Aug,19967.7
1996 Sep,20072.7
1996 Oct,20213.1
1996 Nov,20322.5
1996 Dec,20402.3
1997 Jan,20663.5
1997 Feb,20750.7
1997 Mar,20799.7
1997 Apr,20949.3
1997 May,21048.5
1997 Jun,21167.9
1997 Jul,21447.2
1997 Aug,21737.0
1997 Sep,22158.6
1997 Oct,22320.1
1997 Nov,22485.0
1997 Dec,22934.8
1998 Jan,23017.5
1998 Feb,23082.0
1998 Mar,23230.9
1998 Apr,23273.6
1998 May,23312.3
1998 Jun,23402.1
1998 Jul,23512.9
1998 Aug,23620.8
1998 Sep,23711.5
1998 Oct,23809.3
1998 Nov,31580.5
1998 Dec,31788.5
1999 Jan,32126.5
1999 Feb,32213.5
1999 Mar,32414.7
1999 Apr,32577.2
1999 May,32889.4
1999 Jun,33308.9
1999 Jul,33624.9
1999 Aug,33989.4
1999 Sep,34295.9
1999 Oct,34379.8
1999 Nov,34873.3
1999 Dec,35154.1
2000 Jan,35375.9
2000 Feb,35526.0
2000 Mar,35746.0
2000 Apr,35905.1
2000 May,36154.8
2000 Jun,36908.8
2000 Jul,37161.1
2000 Aug,37394.3
2000 Sep,37506.8
2000 Oct,37821.3
2000 Nov,38219.8
2000 Dec,38562.5
2001 Jan,39487.8
2001 Feb,39642.8
2001 Mar,39705.5
2001 Apr,39863.1
2001 May,40122.2
2001 Jun,40227.0
2001 Jul,40523.7
2001 Aug,40837.1
2001 Sep,41036.9
2001 Oct,41380.1
2001 Nov,41679.5
2001 Dec,41733.2
2002 Jan,41901.0
2002 Feb,43230.2
2002 Mar,42454.1
2002 Apr,42630.3
2002 May,42900.5
2002 Jun,43274.5
2002 Jul,43522.0
2002 Aug,43516.9
2002 Sep,43570.2
2002 Oct,43838.9
2002 Nov,44183.1
2002 Dec,44623.6
2003 Jan,44879.7
2003 Feb,45055.2
2003 Mar,45257.8
2003 Apr,45921.1
2003 May,46575.0
2003 Jun,47238.9
2003 Jul,48050.4
2003 Aug,48784.7
2003 Sep,49412.7
2003 Oct,50287.1
2003 Nov,51533.7
2003 Dec,52155.4
2004 Jan,52630.2
2004 Feb,53170.9
2004 Mar,54148.9
2004 Apr,54705.1
2004 May,55186.8
2004 Jun,55683.3
2004 Jul,56204.3
2004 Aug,57425.5
2004 Sep,57932.4
2004 Oct,58359.6
2004 Nov,58504.0
2004 Dec,58887.1
2005 Jan,59388.5
2005 Feb,59762.7
2005 Mar,60202.2
2005 Apr,60288.4
2005 May,60589.1
2005 Jun,60769.5
2005 Jul,60965.8
2005 Aug,61099.5
2005 Sep,61243.9
2005 Oct,61505.6
2005 Nov,61710.5
2005 Dec,61954.6
2006 Jan,62100.4
2006 Feb,62138.5
2006 Mar,62043.9
2006 Apr,61932.5
2006 May,61907.9
2006 Jun,62066.6
2006 Jul,62327.6
2006 Aug,62451.8
2006 Sep,62638.5
2006 Oct,62869.6
2006 Nov,63098.1
2006 Dec,63345.1
2007 Jan,63751.5
2007 Feb,63894.8
2007 Mar,64356.7
2007 Apr,64916.9
2007 May,65526.7
2007 Jun,66320.3
2007 Jul,67351.1
2007 Aug,69121.7
2007 Sep,70472.5
2007 Oct,71828.6
2007 Nov,72707.2
2007 Dec,73139.1
2008 Jan,73854.6
2008 Feb,74004.4
2008 Mar,74180.5
2008 Apr,74562.0
2008 May,75036.8
2008 Jun,75919.5
2008 Jul,76609.9
2008 Aug,77101.0
2008 Sep,77614.8
2008 Oct,78535.7
2008 Nov,78908.8
2008 Dec,79587.0
2009 Jan,80111.2
2009 Feb,80401.6
2009 Mar,80754.4
2009 Apr,81006.8
2009 May,81633.4
2009 Jun,82870.1
2009 Jul,84334.4
2009 Aug,85141.4
2009 Sep,87073.3
2009 Oct,89117.6
2009 Nov,90858.2
2009 Dec,91429.5
2010 Jan,92788.0
2010 Feb,93646.8
2010 Mar,94960.8
2010 Apr,96606.2
2010 May,98547.3
2010 Jun,101133.1
2010 Jul,103578.4
2010 Aug,105084.9
2010 Sep,106882.8
2010 Oct,109154.5
2010 Nov,110978.5
2010 Dec,112381.3
2011 Jan,114188.6
2011 Feb,115280.3
2011 Mar,116717.5
2011 Apr,118057.4
2011 May,119731.9
2011 Jun,121344.2
2011 Jul,122946.5
2011 Aug,125017.5
2011 Sep,126704.5
2011 Oct,128158.9
2011 Nov,129501.3
2011 Dec,131106.5
2012 Jan,132677.9
2012 Feb,133754.8
2012 Mar,134807.7
2012 Apr,136079.0
2012 May,137706.9
2012 Jun,139686.6
2012 Jul,141324.5
2012 Aug,143335.3
2012 Sep,145024.9
2012 Oct,147382.3
2012 Nov,150288.5

https://secure.mas.gov.sg/msb-xml/Re...I&tableID=I.5A

[richwang]

150,288 M outstanding loans.
If on average each household (with private housing) has 1M outstanding loan, that means 150K households is owing 1M.

Are we reaching the credit limit?

Thanks,
Richard

[richwang]

[quote=richwang]"MSB I.5B Banks: Loans and Advances of ACUs to Non-Bank Customers by Industry","S$ MILLION"
"END OF PERIOD","CONSUMER LOANS - HOUSING AND BRIDGING LOANS"

2012 Aug,4078.1
2012 Sep,4083.2
2012 Oct,4029.0
2012 Nov,3442.1

Is this drop an early sign that foreigners are no longer keen to Singapore property market?

Thanks,
Richard

[phantom_opera]

bro richwang ... thank you for sharing this, indeed this is very crucial data ... according to one analyst in 2008 only 240k households can afford 1m property, now due to low interest, 440k households can afford 1m property

so if one household hold 1m loan, 150k households is only 1/3 of total households that can afford 1m property. also make take into considerations some buy HDB with bank loans now

another interesting fact is, growth in last bubble 1992-1997 is 3x while it takes another 9y 1997-2006 to expand another 3x ...

from 2007-now ... less than 3x still ... Lehman crisis + CMs already slowed down loan growth a lot

[phantom_opera]

let's do some further analysis to confirm what the analyst said:

we have about 1.15m households in SG

% type of dwelling month household median income
25.5 (5r HDB / larger) - 8.8k
11.0 (condo) - 14.6k
5.8 (landed) - 17k

during normal time when SIBOR about 3%, only probably 20% of households can afford 1m condo by borrowing 800k+ ... that is about 20% x 1.15m = 230k

now SIBOR is 0.4%, suddenly, all the households staying in 5r can afford to buy that 1m condo ... it becomes 40% x 1.15m = 460k

so 240k b4, 440k now . .. is about right ... with your data of 150m outstanding loans, that means about 150k households on loan (5-10% could be HDB loan) ... is it alarming, your verdict

[buttercarp]

Sorry, what is ACU / DBU?

ACU = asian currency unit

DBU = domestic bank unit

[buttercarp]

"MSB I.5B Banks: Loans and Advances of ACUs to Non-Bank Customers by Industry","S$ MILLION"
"END OF PERIOD","CONSUMER LOANS - HOUSING AND BRIDGING LOANS"

2012 Aug,4078.1
2012 Sep,4083.2
2012 Oct,4029.0
2012 Nov,3442.1

Is this drop an early sign that foreigners are no longer keen to Singapore property market?

Thanks,
Richard

But this report said that both DBU and ACU increased.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...245279/1/.html

Total bank lending in S'pore up 15.9% in Nov: MAS
By Thomas Cho | Posted: 31 December 2012 1334 hrs

SINGAPORE: Total bank lending in Singapore continued to grow in November, up 15.9 per cent from a year ago.

The latest Monetary Authority of Singapore data showed loans and advances by domestic banking units amounted to S$481.74 billion in November. This was about 0.5 per cent higher than the S$479.42 billion in October.

Loans to businesses in November contracted slightly from S$278.1 billion in October to S$277 billion. This was mainly due to the drop in loans to financial institutions from S$65.1 billion in October to S$62.8 billion in November.

Meanwhile, total consumer loans rose 1.7 per cent to S$204.8 billion on a month-on-month basis.

Housing loans to consumers came in two per cent higher at S$150.3 billion in November. Credit card loans remained stable at about S$8.7 billion.

Meanwhile, loans and advances in Asian currency units or other currencies apart from the Singapore dollar was S$385.1 billion in November, up from S$381.4 billion a month before.

-CNA/ac

[smpeh]

bro richwang ... thank you for sharing this, indeed this is very crucial data ... according to one analyst in 2008 only 240k households can afford 1m property, now due to low interest, 440k households can afford 1m property

so if one household hold 1m loan, 150k households is only 1/3 of total households that can afford 1m property. also make take into considerations some buy HDB with bank loans now

another interesting fact is, growth in last bubble 1992-1997 is 3x while it takes another 9y 1997-2006 to expand another 3x ...

from 2007-now ... less than 3x still ... Lehman crisis + CMs already slowed down loan growth a lot

Mind advise how 3x comes about?

[richwang]

But this report said that both DBU and ACU increased.


Meanwhile, loans and advances in Asian currency units or other currencies apart from the Singapore dollar was S$385.1 billion in November, up from S$381.4 billion a month before.

-CNA/ac

Don't read the Main Stream News lah, they are misleading you by saying the total ACU while hiding the fact the housing ACU loan had a sharp dip in Nov.

So just read the raw data from MAS, and Opera can chart the big dip for you in this forum.

Thanks,
Richard

[richwang]

so 240k b4, 440k now . .. is about right ... with your data of 150m outstanding loans, that means about 150k households on loan (5-10% could be HDB loan) ... is it alarming, your verdict

Thanks a lot for the estimates that 440K households can afford 1M loan.
It will be interesting to put age information to reflect the latest CM.
So maybe we will have less than 440K household who can afford 1M loan.

But I agree with you that 150K is still not alarming yet. Let's watch the number and also the trend for a couple of more months. I will start to track this number in this forum on monthly basis.

Thanks,
Richard

[buttercarp]

Don't read the Main Stream News lah, they are misleading you by saying the total ACU while hiding the fact the housing ACU loan had a sharp dip in Nov.

So just read the raw data from MAS, and Opera can chart the big dip for you in this forum.

Thanks,
Richard

Thanks bro, yup it is misleading then.
Those with no or little financial knowledge like me will think that both have increased.

[repanse71]

DBU = loans in SGD
ACU = loans on other ccy such as USD

Foreigner and PR can take loans in SGD.
So, this set of data alone cannot prove decreasing loans to, nor decreasing interest from, foreigners.

Regards

[QUOTE=richwang]

"MSB I.5B Banks: Loans and Advances of ACUs to Non-Bank Customers by Industry","S$ MILLION"
"END OF PERIOD","CONSUMER LOANS - HOUSING AND BRIDGING LOANS"

2012 Aug,4078.1
2012 Sep,4083.2
2012 Oct,4029.0
2012 Nov,3442.1

Is this drop an early sign that foreigners are no longer keen to Singapore property market?

Thanks,
Richard

[roly8]

is this a good news or bad news?

[indomie]

Now many property buyers are seriously cash rich.

[roly8]

Now many property buyers are seriously cash rich.

where do they get the $ from?

[Mr.Keh]

ACU = asian currency unit

DBU = domestic bank unit

Thank you. Very useful for an old man like me.

[CondoInterested]

So many households take $1m loan, how many can sustain when Interest Rate goes up, how many can sustain when out of job and how many can sustain when out of rent.

A headache for policy makers?