Which one will crash first?

[Ringo33]

Assuming Singapore goes into recession and there is major retrenchment, which class of property do you think will suffer the biggest price correction and which one the least. And why?

Non Landed - MM
1) OCR
2) RCR
3) CCR

Non Landed - Non-MM
4) OCR
5) RCR
6) CCR

Landed
7) GCB
8) Detached
9) Semi-D
10) Terrace
11) Strata

[zzz1]

Assuming Singapore goes into recession and there is major retrenchment, which class of property do you think will suffer the biggest price correction and which one the least. And why?

Non Landed - MM
1) OCR
2) RCR
3) CCR

Non Landed - Non-MM
4) OCR
5) RCR
6) CCR

Landed
7) GCB
8) Detached
9) Semi-D
10) Terrace
11) Strata

all the above...if your assumption is true . nn wan is spare...
is the LH vs the FL status then...

[leesg123]

Biggest correction against wat bench mark. Places like ccr nonlanded non-mm, when price up, it can go very very up, when down also very down.

I would say that in terms of panic selling, would be OCR, nonlanded non mm. Hunch tells me tat there are many borderline investors for tat category.

Mm, be it ccr, rcr or ocr, will be the most resilient. Reason being small quantum means less loan or no loan. So can hold.

[Ringo33]

all the above...if your assumption is true . nn wan is spare...
is the LH vs the FL status then...

the question is which one will suffer the biggest price correction lah not asking you which on is recession proof.

[Allthepies]

Those tat I won't buy will suffer the most price correction ie property with bad attributes.

[teddybear]

What do you want to hear?

Ok ok, in % terms, must be those >$1200 psf OCR lor!

Why? Too much supply, borderline owners who can't hold for long... If pay $300 psf more can buy RCR & even CCR, who still want to buy these OCR when the crash comes?

Assuming Singapore goes into recession and there is major retrenchment, which class of property do you think will suffer the biggest price correction and which one the least. And why?

Non Landed - MM
1) OCR
2) RCR
3) CCR

Non Landed - Non-MM
4) OCR
5) RCR
6) CCR

Landed
7) GCB
8) Detached
9) Semi-D
10) Terrace
11) Strata

[auroraborealis]

Err... What about HDB? Shouldn't all the > $700k HDB fall by 40% 1st?

What do you want to hear?

Ok ok, in % terms, must be those >$1200 psf OCR lor!

Why? Too much supply, borderline owners who can't hold for long... If pay $300 psf more can buy RCR & even CCR, who still want to buy these OCR when the crash comes?

[ekl2ekl2]

regardless of OCR or CCR, when market drops one day, think those in poor location, poor facing, old condos with poor maintanc will drop probably the most in percentage terms relative to the rest.

In current euphoric market, even poor location, poor facing are transacting at sky high prices.

[wind30]

Assuming Singapore goes into recession and there is major retrenchment, which class of property do you think will suffer the biggest price correction and which one the least. And why?

Actually I am not worried about recession causing a housing crash, but rather a housing crash causing a recession....

I mean if external interest rates goes back to 4% and housing market crash, straight away a lot of people will lose so much money. no money to spend... no incomes, everyone try to save more money. you see it in places in Europe, USA. I hope singapore government does something fast.

[sabian]

Actually I am not worried about recession causing a housing crash, but rather a housing crash causing a recession....

I mean if external interest rates goes back to 4% and housing market crash, straight away a lot of people will lose so much money. no money to spend... no incomes, everyone try to save more money. you see it in places in Europe, USA. I hope singapore government does something fast.

wha makes you think they will do anything more? your hopes are misplaced. khaw already thinking abt reducing HDB supply now.

[avo7007]

Assuming Singapore goes into recession and there is major retrenchment, which class of property do you think will suffer the biggest price correction and which one the least. And why?

In a major recession, i guess property that depends on rental to pay for their loan installment will be hit hard. My gut tells me that commercial pty might be the first to bite the bullet.....

[DC33_2008]

Normally the case with shops empty, bankruptcy, and bad debt but more auction.

In a major recession, i guess property that depends on rental to pay for their loan installment will be hit hard. My gut tells me that commercial pty might be the first to bite the bullet.....

[Secretariat]

the question is which one will suffer the biggest price correction lah not asking you which on is recession proof.

Landed, semi-d follows by terrace. By price change %.

[fclim]

Biggest correction against wat bench mark. Places like ccr nonlanded non-mm, when price up, it can go very very up, when down also very down.

I would say that in terms of panic selling, would be OCR, nonlanded non mm. Hunch tells me tat there are many borderline investors for tat category.

Mm, be it ccr, rcr or ocr, will be the most resilient. Reason being small quantum means less loan or no loan. So can hold.

If go by your logic of quantum, shouldn't those landed with bigger loans get hit hardest? We are talking about a recession. Anybody can lose his/her job.

[proper-t]

Landed are usually owner occupied with hardly any new supply. Most landed owners don't depend on rentals to service and since its the roof over their heads, it would be the last asset that they will part with. The highest risk would be the segment with a huge potential supply coming on stream and dependent on rentals to service their monthly instalments.

[carbuncle]

this doomsday thread is very scary to read for people on the boats

[cnud]

this doomsday thread is very scary to read for people on the boats

CM can be reserved. If not the guvment is useless.

Those who put 40%, 60% downpayment will do a refinance and get the money to hoot another unit if crash.

[proper-t]

this doomsday thread is very scary to read for people on the boats

our friend Mr B has been doomsdaying since a year ago but property still cheong leh.....

[CondoWE]

If you have 40% reserve cash for all yr properties and all properties are on 60% loan then you should not have to worry liao... ! Interest rate is unlikely to go up to 5% and properties crash also unlikely to drop till 40-50% in Singapore. If interest rate really go up to 5%, use the 40% reserve cash to reduce the loan quantum lor.. .

So long you have holding power..property price eventually will go up and up and up.. !!!

[alamak]

this doomsday thread is very scary to read for people on the boats

The fact that this thread has started tells you something about the air ....

macham .. before it rains you can feel the air starting to moist and windy ..

In stock market it is called the extended high .. just after high ...and before the exceptional calm and then ... folks be careful and pray safe .

[Ringo33]

Landed are usually owner occupied with hardly any new supply. Most landed owners don't depend on rentals to service and since its the roof over their heads, it would be the last asset that they will part with. The highest risk would be the segment with a huge potential supply coming on stream and dependent on rentals to service their monthly instalments.

I am not sure if thats true. If you look at propertyguru, there are definitely many landed property in the market looking for tenants at really low yield.

when you have high quantum and low yield, if there is shock in the market, finding tenant will be even more difficult, and selling will become almost impossible.

[proper-t]

I am not sure if thats true. If you look at propertyguru, there are definitely many landed property in the market looking for tenants at really low yield.

when you have high quantum and low yield, if there is shock in the market, finding tenant will be even more difficult, and selling will become almost impossible.

No of condos/apt for rent in propguru - 35,439

No of landed for rent in propguru - 5,610

I haven't even started on supply coming on-stream in next few years. Who do you think will blink first?

[eng81157]

No of condos/apt for rent in propguru - 35,439

No of landed for rent in propguru - 5,610

Who do you think will blink first?

duplicate postings, my dear watson

as long as HDB prices remain high, there won't be a catastrophic drop. those who over-leveraged themselves are the first to face the firing squad.

[Laguna]

duplicate postings, my dear watson

as long as HDB prices remain high, there won't be a catastrophic drop. those who over-leveraged themselves are the first to face the firing squad.

One property can have >10 entires and on top, there are some fishy entries and obsolete entries.

[Ringo33]

No of condos/apt for rent in propguru - 35,439

No of landed for rent in propguru - 5,610

I haven't even started on supply coming on-stream in next few years. Who do you think will blink first?

No point focusing on supply numbers without comparing demand.

If you look at URA property price index, landed property has always been the one that suffer the biggest drop during a correction. Will it be different this time?

[proper-t]

duplicate postings, my dear watson

as long as HDB prices remain high, there won't be a catastrophic drop. those who over-leveraged themselves are the first to face the firing squad.

I know. There are duplicate postings in both segments so even if you minus out the duplicates in both segments, it should still be a good gauge of the overwhelming numbers in ap/condos vs landed.

You have also not taken into account the new supply coming on-stream.

I agree with you on the overleveraging but until there are definitive figures to show which segment of buyers are overleveraged vs their liquidity positions, the verdict is still a moot point.

[proper-t]

No point focusing on supply numbers without comparing demand.

If you look at URA property price index, landed property has always been the one that suffer the biggest drop during a correction. Will it be different this time?

So you are saying there is no demand for landed?

Err...your thread title is which will crash FIRST not which will suffer the highest drop.

Based on on-coming supply and assuming demand for all segments grinds to a halt, which segment will blink first?

[sabian]

MAS mentioned that 45% of the loans >30 yrs?

With the recent curb on loan tenor. If rates go up, most of these folks cannot refinance. They can reprice but I doubt they will be offered better rates than if they refinanced.

MAS is afraid of knock on effect when defaults, fire-sale, downward revaluation and stressed out home owners start mounting up.

[Ringo33]

So you are saying there is no demand for landed?

Err...your thread title is which will crash FIRST not which will suffer the highest drop.

Based on on-coming supply and assuming demand for all segments grinds to a halt, which segment will bllink first?

Your reasoning is based on supply numbers ONLY and it is meaningless because big supply can easily be absorb by big or bigger demand, while small supply number could also mean smaller demand.

Have you compared the total number of people buying condo vs landed property?

[eng81157]

I know. There are duplicate postings in both segments so even if you minus out the duplicates in both segments, it should still be a good gauge of the overwhelming numbers in ap/condos vs landed.

You have also not taken into account the new supply coming on-stream.

I agree with you on the overleveraging but until there are definitive figures to show which segment of buyers are overleveraged vs their liquidity positions, the verdict is still a moot point.

then have you considered that the government's target for the island's population is 6m? whatever new supply there is, it won't be enough to soak up the demand from another 600-700k new immigrants