Landed will drop while other property segments continue to rise

**Ringo33** · 01-03-13, 10:52

Originally Posted by MLP

Hi Ringo...Ringo, what are you trying to prove? When we read a report saying that landed property prices have gone up 82.5%, that will mean "ON THE AVERAGE" the prices have gone up by that much. Obviously, some landed houses have gone up more and some are less. Just like any properties, the valuation of a landed house depends on many factors, both positive and negative.

So you can still buy a landed house at a very reasonable price (based on psf) if you look hard enough and don't mind some of the negative factors. Instead of wasting your time trying to talk down landed property prices, go and get yourself one landed house and be happy.

I can fully understand that those who have vested interest in landed property would choose to believe that they wish to believe, they will chose to generate tables to show sexy numbers as if they are capable of timing the market (that is knowing and buying at the bottom of the property cycle)

However that doesnt mean that others in this forum cant discuss facts to bust the myth of landed property prices index

Using Binjai Park GCB example, I have already prove that URA statistic on landed property is misleading as it doesnt capture the rebuilding cost of landed property before it was resold. For Binjai GCB, those blinded will choose to believe that the same property appreciated by around 100% or 15m in profit within i2 to 3 years. While those who dare questioned those numbers will see that owners has pump in huge amount of time and money into rebuilding the GCB before selling it for around 5 to 6m profit.

Like I said before, number doesnt lies, only those who misinterpret them do.

**Ringo33** · 01-03-13, 10:58

Originally Posted by lajia

seems like I'm not alone, the more we talk the more we vomit blood as the ears are shut. now he say we cannot assume that landed has run up steeply but keep telling ppl dont buy landed as it has risen more than anything else and it will crash hard.
what kind of contridiction is this...but he can go on and on and on....

anyway not going into this anymore...

putting 2 blinds together doesnt give them better vision.

When you buy a property A for 2m, you spend 1m redo the property and then sell it for 4m, do you consider that as 100% profit or 30%?

**proper-t** · 01-03-13, 11:42

Originally Posted by Ringo33

I can fully understand that those who have vested interest in landed property would choose to believe that they wish to believe, they will chose to generate tables to show sexy numbers as if they are capable of timing the market (that is knowing and buying at the bottom of the property cycle)

However that doesnt mean that others in this forum cant discuss facts to bust the myth of landed property prices index

Using Binjai Park GCB example, I have already prove that URA statistic on landed property is misleading as it doesnt capture the rebuilding cost of landed property before it was resold. For Binjai GCB, those blinded will choose to believe that the same property appreciated by around 100% or 15m in profit within i2 to 3 years. While those who dare questioned those numbers will see that owners has pump in huge amount of time and money into rebuilding the GCB before selling it for around 5 to 6m profit.

Like I said before, number doesnt lies, only those who misinterpret them do.

Is this how you intrepret statistics? One example PROVES your point?

I have also listed one example but do I make such claims?

Please give the readers here more credit and show us substantive evidence that either all or a significant majority of the landed transactions are inflated. If not, then please stop your continuous repetition of the same points and charts over and over again.

Btw, your example is flawed as you are using the wrong cost figures. I am sure readers here would like to know the answers to the questions appended below:

Originally Posted by Ringo33

Address : 68 BINJAI PARK
Site Area : 1,285.2 m2
GFA : 1,333.46 m2

Purchase Price : $15,850,000
Stamp Duty : $470100

Construction Cost : est. $5050 / m2 x 1333.46 = $6,733,973
Other Cost* : $3,000,000

Total Cost = $26,054,073

(*) • Legal and professional fees • Development charges • Authority fees • Finance costs • Loose furniture, fittings and works of art• Tenancy work • Site infrastructure work • Diversion of existing services • Green Mark Cost Premiums • Resident site staff cost • Models andprototypes • Future cost escalation • Goods and Services Tax.

Sold (27-Mar-12) : $31,000,000.

Estimated Profit : $4,945,927 (excluding agent commission)

1. Why are you using GFA when the report specifically states 5050/m2 CFA?

2. Please explain how you derived other cost?

3. As explained, the figures in your Dec report would not be applicable as the constuction contract would have been signed way before 3Q 2010. Why are you using 5050/m2?

**Juniper** · 01-03-13, 14:39

Would be interesting to find out if there is any transaction of land only

**Ringo33** · 01-03-13, 16:15

obviously that someone who keep bugging me about CFA and GFA doesnt know that if I use GFA/m2 cost to calculate, cost for rebuilding Binjai Park GCB will be much higher.

Take for example

Luxury condo
CFA : 2850-3850/m2
GFA : 3800-5200/m2

http://rlb.com/rlb.com/pdf/research/...ember_2010.pdf

By asking such pointless and insignificant question only goes show that some landed property owners here are too afraid to confront the truth and choose to live in self-denial.

**proper-t** · 01-03-13, 17:04

Originally Posted by Ringo33

obviously that someone who keep bugging me about CFA and GFA doesnt know that if I use GFA/m2 cost to calculate, cost for rebuilding Binjai Park GCB will be much higher.

Take for example

Luxury condo
CFA : 2850-3850/m2
GFA : 3800-5200/m2

http://rlb.com/rlb.com/pdf/research/...ember_2010.pdf

By asking such pointless and insignificant question only goes show that some landed property owners here are too afraid to confront the truth and choose to live in self-denial.

Why are you are still using :

1. Q3 2010 construction figures when I have explained that its not applicable
2. Why are you using luxury condos to illustrate when we are talking about detached houses?

Please let us know what are the GFA cost figures for detached houses in the correct time period (q1 2010) then or are you afraid to confront the truth?

You still have not told us how you derived the Other Cost in your computations.

**Mary Lee** · 01-03-13, 17:25

Let's take a break and relax.

Two Men And A Lady

Two Italian men and a lady stranded on a desert island;
- The two fought and one KILLED the other to have the lady.

Two American men and a lady stranded on a desert island;
- They both had the lady TOGETHER.

Two French men and a lady stranded on a desert island;
- They killed the lady to have EACH OTHER.

Two Indonesian men and a lady stranded on a desert island;
- The first man claimed that island is independent and took the lady as his advisor.
- The second man swam to another island to search for jobs.

Two Thai men and a lady stranded on a desert island;
- The first man rented the lady to the second man for 2 baht a night.

Two Filipino men and a lady stranded on a desert island;
- The first man kidnapped the lady and asked for ransom from the other man.

Two Malaysian men and a lady stranded on a desert island;
- The lady ACCUSED the first man of sodomizing the other because she was rejected by both.

Two Singaporean men and a lady stranded on a desert island;
- The two men are still waiting for instructions from the GOVERNMENT on how to proceed.

**proper-t** · 01-03-13, 17:48

Originally Posted by Mary Lee

Let's take a break and relax.

Two Men And A Lady

Two Italian men and a lady stranded on a desert island;
- The two fought and one KILLED the other to have the lady.

Two American men and a lady stranded on a desert island;
- They both had the lady TOGETHER.

Two French men and a lady stranded on a desert island;
- They killed the lady to have EACH OTHER.

Two Indonesian men and a lady stranded on a desert island;
- The first man claimed that island is independent and took the lady as his advisor.
- The second man swam to another island to search for jobs.

Two Thai men and a lady stranded on a desert island;
- The first man rented the lady to the second man for 2 baht a night.

Two Filipino men and a lady stranded on a desert island;
- The first man kidnapped the lady and asked for ransom from the other man.

Two Malaysian men and a lady stranded on a desert island;
- The lady ACCUSED the first man of sodomizing the other because she was rejected by both.

Two Singaporean men and a lady stranded on a desert island;
- The two men are still waiting for instructions from the GOVERNMENT on how to proceed.

Thanks for the break. The landed forums used to be a nice and friendly place for discussion. All it takes is one subversive element with a hidden agenda...sigh

**wind30** · 01-03-13, 18:21

Originally Posted by Ringo33

I can fully understand that those who have vested interest in landed property would choose to believe that they wish to believe, they will chose to generate tables to show sexy numbers as if they are capable of timing the market (that is knowing and buying at the bottom of the property cycle)

However that doesnt mean that others in this forum cant discuss facts to bust the myth of landed property prices index

Using Binjai Park GCB example, I have already prove that URA statistic on landed property is misleading as it doesnt capture the rebuilding cost of landed property before it was resold. For Binjai GCB, those blinded will choose to believe that the same property appreciated by around 100% or 15m in profit within i2 to 3 years. While those who dare questioned those numbers will see that owners has pump in huge amount of time and money into rebuilding the GCB before selling it for around 5 to 6m profit.

Like I said before, number doesnt lies, only those who misinterpret them do.

then how about luxus hills? Easiest index. Initial launch price in 2009 was 1.6million. What is the latest price??

no rebuilt. no nothing

**Ringo33** · 01-03-13, 18:33

Originally Posted by wind30

then how about luxus hills? Easiest index. Initial launch price in 2009 was 1.6million. What is the latest price??

no rebuilt. no nothing

glad you bring this up for discussion. May I know if price of Luxus Hills have appreciate by over 80% since 2009?

**Mary Lee** · 01-03-13, 18:40

Maybe we can drop the topic and have a good weekend.

LKY vs Bill Clinton

One day, our beloved Senior Minister went to America for a meeting with Bill "Sex Maniac" Clinton. After the meeting, SM Lee approached Bill and asked:

SM Lee: Bill, let me ask you a question.

Bill: About sex?

SM Lee: No, lah! How do you put a giraffe into a fridge?

Bill: Don’t know.

SM Lee: You open the door, shove the giraffe in, then you close it. Now let me ask you another question…how do you add an elephant into the fridge if you can only put one animal in it?

Bill: Open the door, shove the elephant in, and close the door.

SM Lee: No! You open the door, take the giraffe out, then shove the elephant in and close it. Now, if you were on a plane and it was going to crash because it was overloaded, what should you throw out? A VCR, A fridge, or 10 bags that were heavier than the other two added together?

Bill: I should throw myself.

Lee Kuan Yew: Got no parachute, lah!

Bill: Then of course the 10 bags lah!

Lee Kuan Yew: Wrong! The fridge. Because the fridge itself is lighter than the 10 bags but there is an elephant in it...goondu! Now, last one... there was this very beautiful princess by the name of Monica. One day, a witch cast a spell on her. Now anyone who was 100 meters away would die. Then this prince by the name of Bill decided to be a hero and save her. Actually he wanted to have sex with her later. But he died 300 meters away. Why?

Bill: Don't know.

Lee Kuan Yew: Because you throw the fridge on him, mah!

**Pinball** · 01-03-13, 19:46

more than 80% bro. latest in nov-12 $3m for 1,615sf. launch was $1.5m i think.

Originally Posted by Ringo33

glad you bring this up for discussion. May I know if price of Luxus Hills have appreciate by over 80% since 2009?

**Ringo33** · 01-03-13, 20:04

Originally Posted by Pinball

more than 80% bro. latest in nov-12 $3m for 1,615sf. launch was $1.5m i think.

recent transaction
Bought 2010-12-01 $1,270psf
Sold 2012-11-29 $1858psf
Around 42% in 2 years, after deducting SSD and Stamp Duty

**MLP** · 01-03-13, 22:16

My brother in law's house at Coronation Drive (7000 sf). Original condition (no AA).

Bought: Mar 2006 $382 psf
Sold: April 2010 $1000 psf
Now: At least $1500 psf (if he still keeps it)

Originally Posted by Ringo33

recent transaction
Bought 2010-12-01 $1,270psf
Sold 2012-11-29 $1858psf
Around 42% in 2 years, after deducting SSD and Stamp Duty

**Leo.Cheng** · 02-03-13, 04:58

Originally Posted by Mary Lee

Maybe we can drop the topic and have a good weekend.

LKY vs Bill Clinton

One day, our beloved Senior Minister went to America for a meeting with Bill "Sex Maniac" Clinton. After the meeting, SM Lee approached Bill and asked:

SM Lee: Bill, let me ask you a question.

Bill: About sex?

SM Lee: No, lah! How do you put a giraffe into a fridge?

Bill: Don’t know.

SM Lee: You open the door, shove the giraffe in, then you close it. Now let me ask you another question…how do you add an elephant into the fridge if you can only put one animal in it?

Bill: Open the door, shove the elephant in, and close the door.

SM Lee: No! You open the door, take the giraffe out, then shove the elephant in and close it. Now, if you were on a plane and it was going to crash because it was overloaded, what should you throw out? A VCR, A fridge, or 10 bags that were heavier than the other two added together?

Bill: I should throw myself.

Lee Kuan Yew: Got no parachute, lah!

Bill: Then of course the 10 bags lah!

Lee Kuan Yew: Wrong! The fridge. Because the fridge itself is lighter than the 10 bags but there is an elephant in it...goondu! Now, last one... there was this very beautiful princess by the name of Monica. One day, a witch cast a spell on her. Now anyone who was 100 meters away would die. Then this prince by the name of Bill decided to be a hero and save her. Actually he wanted to have sex with her later. But he died 300 meters away. Why?

Bill: Don't know.

Lee Kuan Yew: Because you throw the fridge on him, mah!

**Leo.Cheng** · 02-03-13, 05:04

Originally Posted by Ringo33

Dont let people BS you that landed prices has risen by 82.5% since 2009, because the same guy that BS you is tell me its around 32%.

from what I see in this table, a cycle can also be 10 years long. Although most are about 4 to 5 years in length. I hope we did not miscalculate it this time round

**blackjack21trader** · 02-03-13, 05:30

There is a big buyers' pool for condos and apartments/HDB, but there are so many buyers for landed with that kind of budget

**Leo.Cheng** · 02-03-13, 05:32

Originally Posted by blackjack21trader

There is a big buyers' pool for condos and apartments/HDB, but there are so many buyers for landed with that kind of budget

Dear friend, this is my idea. Please return to sleep, thank you.

**Ringo33** · 02-03-13, 05:49

Originally Posted by MLP

My brother in law's house at Coronation Drive (7000 sf). Original condition (no AA).

Bought: Mar 2006 $382 psf
Sold: April 2010 $1000 psf
Now: At least $1500 psf (if he still keeps it)

If you ask any landed property owner, they will tell you that the value of their landed has appreciated by 82% since 2009 as long as they are not in the market to find a buyer.

dont mind telling us what is the unit number?

**Ringo33** · 02-03-13, 05:58

No point trying to read into this as the poster is trying to massage the numbers to give you the false impression that buying landed property is like buying stocks, you can read the chart to predict the up or down turn.

One also need to ask, what is the point of comparing landed to non-landed using the same period, since both segment of the market doesnt necessary peak and bottom out at the same time.

Again, dont let the blind tell you where to go

**Ringo33** · 02-03-13, 06:17

Was reading an article recently and they are saying landed property market is driven by activities in the GCB segment, which mean that the market in general always take cue from the GCB / detached housing price movement. Perhaps that explain why smaller landed housing tend to alway lag behind during the pick up of property cycle. However when economic situation turn negative, they will also be the first to react, perhaps due to lack of holding power compared to the super rich.

Having said that, I still believe that a huge chunk of the price growth we seen in landed property are actually driven by buyer/developers tearing down old houses and rebuilding them to the max before reselling or revaluing them.

So this lead to my next question. How long can such modern landed property hold its value before they need to be torn down and rebuild again? 10, 15 years?

**Leo.Cheng** · 02-03-13, 06:24

I think built-up is not reflected in landed title deeds, unlike strata titles

**Leo.Cheng** · 02-03-13, 06:26

usually you need a major renovation every 10 years and one rebuilt after 20 years

But with modern techology and newer polymer pipes, I think can last 30 years without a rebuild for current new terraces

**Ringo33** · 02-03-13, 06:31

Originally Posted by Leo.Cheng

usually you need a major renovation every 10 years and one rebuilt after 20 years

But with modern techology and newer polymer pipes, I think can last 30 years without a rebuild for current new terraces

Actually I do think modern landed housing which are constructed with tight budget and lousy contractors, cannot last as long as the older ones because the material use and also design. these modern landed are good to look at when its new, but they tend not to last the test of time as compared to classic landed property with red roof tile etc.

**Leo.Cheng** · 02-03-13, 06:59

Originally Posted by Ringo33

Actually I do think modern landed housing which are constructed with tight budget and lousy contractors, cannot last as long as the older ones because the material use and also design. these modern landed are good to look at when its new, but they tend not to last the test of time as compared to classic landed property with red roof tile etc.

yes i agree if you are talking about private owners vs developers

**taggy** · 14-04-14, 14:41

i saw bro blackjack21trader in another forum with this pic,
too cute not to share here

**stl67** · 14-04-14, 15:21

Originally Posted by taggy

i saw bro blackjack21trader in another forum with this pic,
too cute not to share here

he very "black heart" leh... i have been hearing crash crash for so long.. i waited until my neck so long...
wait and wait and wait.. till now still dont have... where are all the landed experts that say it will crash?

**taggy** · 14-04-14, 16:03

Originally Posted by stl67

he very "black heart" leh... i have been hearing crash crash for so long.. i waited until my neck so long...
wait and wait and wait.. till now still dont have... where are all the landed experts that say it will crash?

this time he say

:

有价无市。

SHALL CRASH 40% BY 4 JUNE 2014 once Sellers realise no buyers for landed in the market.

玄天神子

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