How would recovery in US affect SG properties

[cnud]

Would rectories in US, China, Japan push our properties higher or drain the demand away from us?

Interest rates likely to go up though..

[sabian]

Eh? I thought SG property market is bullet proof one?

Heads, we win. Tails, they lose.

Why? Bec when the US economy crashing, a lot of money flow to SG. When US economy recovers, they have more money to invest in SG property. Tio boh?

Interest rate? It's so low now that it doesn't matter.

If interest rates go up? Never mind lah. Majority of the buyers would rather leave it empty than sell. So what if interest rate go up?

Bro BJ 3rd eye already see it all liao. Muahahaha

[cnud]

Seems that US will reverse its outsource culture and decide to get their own hands dirty to save jobs. Growth will swing back to their homeland. Domestic demand spurred growth will inevitably press interest rates to go up. Some say end of this year..

If China properties chiong again, many investors will head back there as well.

With pressure from the young and often loud voters, guvment tightening of ft will result in lower demand in coming years.

Rising interest rates, diminishing demand for ft rental, looming supply glut, CM tilted to favor 1st timers, etc...

How not to expect price correction?

Although show flats still crowded, some would agree it was not as crowded as before. It may take a bit longer to feel the real effect of CM7..

[eng81157]

Seems that US will reverse its outsource culture and decide to get their own hands dirty to save jobs. Growth will swing back to their homeland. Domestic demand spurred growth will inevitably press interest rates to go up. Some say end of this year..

If China properties chiong again, many investors will head back there as well.

With pressure from the young and often loud voters, guvment tightening of ft will result in lower demand in coming years.

Rising interest rates, diminishing demand for ft rental, looming supply glut, CM tilted to favor 1st timers, etc...

How not to expect price correction?

Although show flats still crowded, some would agree it was not as crowded as before. It may take a bit longer to feel the real effect of CM7..

US recover, optimism goes up, stock market booms, viola!!
of course interest rates will creep up surely but slowly, to avoid jeopardizing any fragile recovery.

i am not of the opinion that unemployment rate in US will drop to 6-6.5% this year. will probably take about 3-4 years of growth to achieve such numbers

[cnud]

US recover, optimism goes up, stock market booms, viola!!
of course interest rates will creep up surely but slowly, to avoid jeopardizing any fragile recovery.

i am not of the opinion that unemployment rate in US will drop to 6-6.5% this year. will probably take about 3-4 years of growth to achieve such numbers

The optimism is bit different this time I feel. Those who are happy are the blue collars. The high earners thrive in an environment where their hands are not dirtied. And these are the ones who drive up demand for luxury good, properties, etc. The labourers are happy they can feed their families.

Of course, China middle class is one big part of the game. But domestic demands will lure them back. They have more opportunities back home than in SG where they are not appreciated.

[sabian]

Seems that US will reverse its outsource culture and decide to get their own hands dirty to save jobs. Growth will swing back to their homeland. Domestic demand spurred growth will inevitably press interest rates to go up. Some say end of this year..

If China properties chiong again, many investors will head back there as well.

With pressure from the young and often loud voters, guvment tightening of ft will result in lower demand in coming years.

Rising interest rates, diminishing demand for ft rental, looming supply glut, CM tilted to favor 1st timers, etc...

How not to expect price correction?

Although show flats still crowded, some would agree it was not as crowded as before. It may take a bit longer to feel the real effect of CM7..

OK, jokes aside.

Wages in the usual outsourced countries have narrowed the gap. Plus the shale gas/ oil revolution, it gives the US a tremendous fillip in terms of lowering their overall cost.

My earlier post, I was just jesting. If the US economy recovers, investments will head that way without a doubt and if the recovery is strong enough (Fed is using employment numbers to chart their next move), it may mean abandoning cheap money policies and allowing i/r to rise and consequently, USD strength vs SGD.

So for all the reasons that prompted the mkt to exit USD previously will no longer be there. But it will take a while for this Titanic to change course.

I look at the way the HK listed China property stocks have moved, it seems the new leadership is willing to tolerate some froth in the market. New property sales do contribute to GDP and the feel-good factor. The outgoing leadership wanted to preserve their legacy and exit with their good names intact (hence the curbs previously).

So yeah, if the local China property recovers its previous vibrancy, less Chinese funds will flow our way.

The part of the young voters...I don't blame them. The ratio of the price of their first HDB home vs their income is daunting. Another point, I cab to and from the airport weekly. I encounter more and more cabbies (who have kids) worried for their own kids ability to purchase their own homes. I take it as a reflection of overall sentiment.

Politically, housing was an issue during the GE. Since then, the property index has gone on from strength to strength since then. (If I was Obi-Wan, I'd be praying for an external reason to cool the property market, then I can say it wasn't me, hahaha)

Read somewhere that only 20% have more than one property. So if prices cooled, it only affects the flippers/ investment owners.

For owner occupiers, majority are staying put regardless of price movement.

But if prices continue on their current trajectory, you can bet your last dollar the birth rate may head into negative territory and a new can of worms will be opened when folks start focusing on wealthy parents stumping up cash for their kids home. You get a situation of the haves and have-nots.

Frankly, I am more worried if the idea of not having kids at all takes root. Just look at Japan, they have gotten used to the idea of deflation and not having kids. It seems quite impossible to change their thinking now that they have lived with it for over a decade. Someone did try to calculate the day when there will be 1 Japanese left in the world.

[Shanhz]

But if prices continue on their current trajectory, you can bet your last dollar the birth rate may head into negative territory and a new can of worms will be opened when folks start focusing on wealthy parents stumping up cash for their kids home. You get a situation of the haves and have-nots.

Frankly, I am more worried if the idea of not having kids at all takes root. Just look at Japan, they have gotten used to the idea of deflation and not having kids. It seems quite impossible to change their thinking now that they have lived with it for over a decade. Someone did try to calculate the day when there will be 1 Japanese left in the world.

eventually this will happen. you walk around in japan, you dun see many toddlers. at least in sgp you still see alot everywhere you go. having said that, disposable income is beginning to get stretched more and more. yet adding fuel to fire, young pple want to enjoy life more before they get tied down. want to have one kid = at least 1k gone per month, or more. how many singaporeans can afford to have one house, one car and 2 kids (or more)? the numbers just dun add up.

eventually some one will be calculating the last singaporean left in the world.

[vboy]

Govt releases new measures to promote marriage and parenthood


By Jessica Cheam
Singapolitics
Monday, Jan 21, 2013
The Government on Monday announced measures under a Marriage and Parenthood package aimed at making Singapore more family-friendly.

These include:

* Housing: Married couples with children under the age of 16 and who are buying HDB flats for the first time will get priority allocation of new flats. Married couples with children who are renting flats directly from the HDB will also be able to do so at affordable rates.

* Cost of raising children: A bigger baby bonus cash gift of $6,000 will be given for the first two births and $8,000 for third and fourth births. Right now, the baby bonus is $4,000 and $6,000 respectively. Every Singaporean baby will also get a Medisave account with $3,000 in it. MediShield will also be extended to cover congenital and neonatal conditions of babies.

RELATED STORIES

Civil servants to get one week's paternity leave
Bigger baby bonus and Medisave grants
Young families moved to front of BTO queue
* Paternity leave: The Government will legislate one week of paid paternity leave for fathers. Fathers can also share one week of their wife's maternity leave entitlement.

* Work-life measures: Working mothers who adopt will get four weeks of government-paid adoption leave. Parents with children aged seven to 12 will get two days of childcare leave. In addition, there will be extended maternity protection to cover full term of pregnancy for those dismissed without sufficient cause.

* Support for conception and delivery: The government will co-fund Assisted Reproduction Technology (ART) treatments from the current 50 per cent to 75 per cent. Delivery fees in public hospitals will be standardised.

The package will cost the government about $2 billion a year, up from the $1.6 billion budget previously.

[newbie11]

Extinction of jp

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/05...panese-people/

[Shanhz]

The question everybody asks is why is there a lack of children?
The answer seems to lie in several reasons.
One reason is the cost. Japan is an extremely expensive country and getting a child through college can wipe out a family's finances.
But research shows it goes much deeper than that as the Japanese state does throw a lot of money at people with children.

for the moment, this is relevant to singapore.

if you read on, there are other reasons not YET relevant to singapore. but looking at the way our youths (plus our lawyers, civil servants, principals, teachers etc) have sex, i think that part not relevant to us.

[sabian]

TS MIA liao?

[cnud]

Good morning sabian!

Dint mia la..

Everyone's excited about US recovery. I for one would actually hope the superpower to be a little messier for rates to continue low for another 5 years.

[cnud]

New birth incentives to drive up TFR?

Not so easy leh...