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Thread: Many property owners are desperate...

  1. #1
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    Default Many property owners are desperate...

    Having been a long time silent observer of this forum, I have seen a clear difference of CM7: that is, this time, many forummers here (property owners with vested interest) are desperately defending that property prices will continue chiong or remain stabilized, reasons quoted include, why would sellers sell, who will sell, further reduction of supply, abundant liquidity, low interest rate, why would this CM be different from previous ones, buyers rushed in at 11th hour before CM7, population and so on... -- all the common rhetoric that keep repeated over and over, until I feel that I must say something.

    First, it is quite a clear sign that some owners are desperately defending the property prices, this is an indication that CM7 has hit their nerves, and therefore, you would see one owner posting some reasons supporting his theory, the other owner would quickly post a supporting note and so on. I didn't see much of this in previous CMs.

    Second, CM7 is going to reduce demand to a larger extend than the reduction of supply, due mainly to the stupid ABSDs. I know many potential buyers who firmly decided not to buy. Lots of genuine demand have already been absorbed in the past years, coupled with the further reduction of demand which is much more than the reduction of supply, we are going to see the market titled to buyer side. Foreigners maybe rich, but they are calculative as well, and remember they account for just minority of the demand.

    I went to see quite a few resale units, and the sentiment I felt is the same everywhere, that is, there are not many sellers, but, there are almost NO buyers.

  2. #2
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    The demand has definitely shrink. No doubt. I don't think a lot of singaporean 2nd buyer will pay 7%. We very niao ji niao lan one. Unless he/she can rebate back the 7% but that also means the current property will be back into the market.

    As for desperate owner, I don't really think so. Unless those who bought at ridiculous price but still, why would they sell at a loss if they have the money to buy at ridiculous pricing? I think the problem will start when rental starts dropping. CCR already softening so unless rental picks up, life is going to be hard for those who bought at high price. Then see who blink first. CM8 or CM9 is not going to affect much if rental stays strong.




    Quote Originally Posted by economist
    Having been a long time silent observer of this forum, I have seen a clear difference of CM7: that is, this time, many forummers here (property owners with vested interest) are desperately defending that property prices will continue chiong or remain stabilized, reasons quoted include, why would sellers sell, who will sell, further reduction of supply, abundant liquidity, low interest rate, why would this CM be different from previous ones, buyers rushed in at 11th hour before CM7, population and so on... -- all the common rhetoric that keep repeated over and over, until I feel that I must say something.

    First, it is quite a clear sign that some owners are desperately defending the property prices, this is an indication that CM7 has hit their nerves, and therefore, you would see one owner posting some reasons supporting his theory, the other owner would quickly post a supporting note and so on. I didn't see much of this in previous CMs.

    Second, CM7 is going to reduce demand to a larger extend than the reduction of supply, due mainly to the stupid ABSDs. I know many potential buyers who firmly decided not to buy. Lots of genuine demand have already been absorbed in the past years, coupled with the further reduction of demand which is much more than the reduction of supply, we are going to see the market titled to buyer side. Foreigners maybe rich, but they are calculative as well, and remember they account for just minority of the demand.

    I went to see quite a few resale units, and the sentiment I felt is the same everywhere, that is, there are not many sellers, but, there are almost NO buyers.

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    That's right, the 7% and 10% has really turned off many of the potential buyers.

    I didn't mean owners are desperately selling, I meant some of them are desperately posting here to defend their rhetoric theory, I did't actually want to post until I saw a thread today which almost made me laugh. Yes, sellers will not panic sell, supply will actually be reduced, what matters is that demand will be reduced much more than that!! As a result, more likely than not, residential prices will drop.

    Quote Originally Posted by thomastansb
    The demand has definitely shrink. No doubt. I don't think a lot of singaporean 2nd buyer will pay 7%. We very niao ji niao lan one. Unless he/she can rebate back the 7% but that also means the current property will be back into the market.

    As for desperate owner, I don't really think so. Unless those who bought at ridiculous price but still, why would they sell at a loss if they have the money to buy at ridiculous pricing? I think the problem will start when rental starts dropping. CCR already softening so unless rental picks up, life is going to be hard for those who bought at high price. Then see who blink first. CM8 or CM9 is not going to affect much if rental stays strong.

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    Resale sellers don't have an absd "absorption" scheme. Makes sense to go for developer sales no?

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    Quote Originally Posted by economist
    Having been a long time silent observer of this forum, I have seen a clear difference of CM7: that is, this time, many forummers here (property owners with vested interest) are desperately defending that property prices will continue chiong or remain stabilized, reasons quoted include, why would sellers sell, who will sell, further reduction of supply, abundant liquidity, low interest rate, why would this CM be different from previous ones, buyers rushed in at 11th hour before CM7, population and so on... -- all the common rhetoric that keep repeated over and over, until I feel that I must say something.

    First, it is quite a clear sign that some owners are desperately defending the property prices, this is an indication that CM7 has hit their nerves, and therefore, you would see one owner posting some reasons supporting his theory, the other owner would quickly post a supporting note and so on. I didn't see much of this in previous CMs.

    Second, CM7 is going to reduce demand to a larger extend than the reduction of supply, due mainly to the stupid ABSDs. I know many potential buyers who firmly decided not to buy. Lots of genuine demand have already been absorbed in the past years, coupled with the further reduction of demand which is much more than the reduction of supply, we are going to see the market titled to buyer side. Foreigners maybe rich, but they are calculative as well, and remember they account for just minority of the demand.

    I went to see quite a few resale units, and the sentiment I felt is the same everywhere, that is, there are not many sellers, but, there are almost NO buyers.
    Hi TS.......
    I think most property owners here (at least the active ones who post are not desperate). We are just sharing why we think that the prices may or may not correct.
    The property market will not change because of us expressing our opinion.

    IMHO.... the desperate ones are not property owners, but the ........
    You go fill in the blank (up to your imagination).

    Regarding the resale units.... how do you know if there are no buyers?
    You just need 1 serious buyer to cause a transaction to take place.

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    Quote Originally Posted by economist
    That's right, the 7% and 10% has really turned off many of the potential buyers.

    I didn't mean owners are desperately selling, I meant some of them are desperately posting here to defend their rhetoric theory, I did't actually want to post until I saw a thread today which almost made me laugh. Yes, sellers will not panic sell, supply will actually be reduced, what matters is that demand will be reduced much more than that!! As a result, more likely than not, residential prices will drop.
    There are 2 types of people here. There are end users and also investors. For investor like myself, constantly testing my investment theory in this forum. I also delighted at people who has opposing view. I am sure there are big players in the industry at this forum. The more extreme the view the better for me, so we can anticipate every possible outcomes. Looking forward to your kind contributions.

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    That's a very gracious post. Thanks.

    Quote Originally Posted by indomie
    There are 2 types of people here. There are end users and also investors. For investor like myself, constantly testing my investment theory in this forum. I also delighted at people who has opposing view. I am sure there are big players in the industry at this forum. The more extreme the view the better for me, so we can anticipate every possible outcomes. Looking forward to your kind contributions.

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    Hi,

    I am also a newbie in this forum. Since discovering this forum recently, I have never failed to login everyday to read up the interesting posts here. I must say the folks here are very knowledgeable and willing to share as well. I really picked up a lot in the past few weeks.

    Since this is an open forum, everyone is free to share their own views. As readers, we have the responsibility to do our own due diligence before making any purchases. We are using our own money to make the purchases, not the forumers here. So it is up to us to digest the info here, make our own deduction before making our own moves.

    If things go well based on the info here....great! If not, we have only ourselves to blame.

    Just my 2 humble cents.

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    These is no denial that property prices are will be affected by CM7. However, it is still too early to tell the impact. It may take abt 6 mths to see the real effects of the CM7.

    What we can see now is that developers are already absobing the 7%, effectively prices has drop by 7% for those who bought last month.

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    I think TS is a newbie to the cyber world. I have been in the Internet property forums since like 2006. WOAAHAHEHEHEHEHHEHEHEH

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    Ditto Economist views. Buyers are waiting on the sidelines, waiting to come in only if there is cut in prices. Some developers have already blinked. Like Q Bay. Like D'leedon. Have been getting calls from agents saying other developers are also willing to give extra discounts. And these are genuine discounts, because these are for projects I am familiar with. To say that CM7 will have no impact is hoping against hope. As Economist says, such comments are more vociferous than before previous CM. So are there some deep seated doubts lurking underneath?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Doom
    Ditto Economist views. Buyers are waiting on the sidelines, waiting to come in only if there is cut in prices. Some developers have already blinked. Like Q Bay. Like D'leedon. Have been getting calls from agents saying other developers are also willing to give extra discounts. And these are genuine discounts, because these are for projects I am familiar with. To say that CM7 will have no impact is hoping against hope. As Economist says, such comments are more vociferous than before previous CM. So are there some deep seated doubts lurking underneath?
    The ones to look out are those which did not sell out before CM7. They are a little panicky right now... I feel..

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    Well, the situation of the middle class in Singapore is also a bit different than other advanced economies. I do not know to call it a blessing or was it an unintentional policy which in actual fact protected us all from any external shocks.

    You see, in overseas economies, the jobs are provided by domestic companies. But here in Singapore, we have globalised companies which pledge no allegience to any government. They are concerned only with efficiency and professionalism of a workforce. And because of our kiasu educational system, our middle class are mostly professional managers who lies above the retenchment axe in the event of any external shocks.

    Unlike in USA, where you have this same group of middle class deeply rooted in self run small/home businesses. That is the spirit they have, but unfortunately works no magic in our current crisis as their income is directly affected by their domestic economy. Our middle class is different, they lies just above the axe and that explains why in the past 2 financial crisis, we managed to tide over steadily and engraved a great track record for us. This track record signals we are going to tide over many times. This is not my view, but the views of many CEOs of globalised MNCs.

    Because of all the previous USA QEs added together, the global banks are now hoarding massive cash reserves. However, these banks cannot simply park their cash for too long, they must make their cash works. And how to make the cash work is through giving loans.

    Unfortunately, they are only lending to low risks individuals or big businesses for expansion and not high risk entities. They will only lend to MNCs, well known brand names, and Singaporean. Yes, you heard it right, Singaporean !

    the US has 3 past records of resetting her debt. in the 1930 there is no hyperinflation during the great depression because US dollar was not a fiat currency. after 1950 all that changed and now every currency is a fiat currency. is this ur fear? Thread Starter ? u feared what keynesia said abt his monetary policy before he died that " we will all be dead by then" is this ur fear? tell me brother.

    isit u fear about the fake boom coming after the US election? is it ? that US will start to re absorb all her currency back and therefore creating another interest rate hike to 23% like during Regean's time? is this ur fear?

    tell me ur fear, my third eye will enlighten u, brother

    the time will come. the key is the signal. and my fourth eye knows when. tell me ur fear leh

    isit, brother economist, u worried abt the effects of qe which is hyperinflation? ur fear is not unfounded, we are all in that red alert zone now, this is the effect of qe we are experiencing. isit something u know that is better than my fourth eye, brother? tell me n i will enlighten u.

    isit u believe they can know better than me, who is from the Darkside?

    wohahahhahahhahahahhhhhhehhehehehehehhe

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    Quote Originally Posted by indomie
    There are 2 types of people here. There are end users and also investors. For investor like myself, constantly testing my investment theory in this forum. I also delighted at people who has opposing view. I am sure there are big players in the industry at this forum. The more extreme the view the better for me, so we can anticipate every possible outcomes. Looking forward to your kind contributions.
    Quote Originally Posted by economist
    That's a very gracious post. Thanks.
    Indeed indomie is one vested investor who respect opposing views. My engagement with him this far has been enriching. It has been a joy engaging with him. This is what a healthy forum should be.

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    I am the Elite of the Elites,
    The Master from the Darkside.
    I have many names,
    Illuminati, Blackjack21, the Third Eye, and the
    Shadow.


    brother... u scared or not leh?

    woahahahhhehehehe

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    Quote Originally Posted by blackjack21trader
    I am the Elite of the Elites,
    The Master from the Darkside.
    I have many names,
    Illuminati, Blackjack21, the Third Eye, and the
    Shadow.


    brother... u scared or not leh?

    woahahahhhehehehe
    ALL BILLIONAIRES ARE UNDER MY COMMAND.

    When I hail left, they dare not go right.

    WOAHAHAHAHAHHHEHHEHEH

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    The seasoned investors are not going to get jittery as long as interest rates remain below 4% and the world economy is stable.
    They know the govt is not engineering a crash but trying very hard to stabilise the market and the CMs will be reversed at the first sign of prices falling more than 10%.
    The serious long term investors will welcome a slight fall in prices as they know it is good for the long term health of the property market.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nav14
    The seasoned investors are not going to get jittery as long as interest rates remain below 4% and the world economy is stable.
    They know the govt is not engineering a crash but trying very hard to stabilise the market and the CMs will be reversed at the first sign of prices falling more than 10%.
    The serious long term investors will welcome a slight fall in prices as they know it is good for the long term health of the property market.
    We may not dare to go in when it suddenly drops 10%.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nav14
    The seasoned investors are not going to get jittery as long as interest rates remain below 4% and the world economy is stable.
    They know the govt is not engineering a crash but trying very hard to stabilise the market and the CMs will be reversed at the first sign of prices falling more than 10%.
    The serious long term investors will welcome a slight fall in prices as they know it is good for the long term health of the property market.
    Now yes, you are one certain enlightened being I totally agree with you from my heart. Well said

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by economist
    Having been a long time silent observer of this forum, I have seen a clear difference of CM7: that is, this time, many forummers here (property owners with vested interest) are desperately defending that property prices will continue chiong or remain stabilized, reasons quoted include, why would sellers sell, who will sell, further reduction of supply, abundant liquidity, low interest rate, why would this CM be different from previous ones, buyers rushed in at 11th hour before CM7, population and so on... -- all the common rhetoric that keep repeated over and over, until I feel that I must say something.

    First, it is quite a clear sign that some owners are desperately defending the property prices, this is an indication that CM7 has hit their nerves, and therefore, you would see one owner posting some reasons supporting his theory, the other owner would quickly post a supporting note and so on. I didn't see much of this in previous CMs.

    Second, CM7 is going to reduce demand to a larger extend than the reduction of supply, due mainly to the stupid ABSDs. I know many potential buyers who firmly decided not to buy. Lots of genuine demand have already been absorbed in the past years, coupled with the further reduction of demand which is much more than the reduction of supply, we are going to see the market titled to buyer side. Foreigners maybe rich, but they are calculative as well, and remember they account for just minority of the demand.

    I went to see quite a few resale units, and the sentiment I felt is the same everywhere, that is, there are not many sellers, but, there are almost NO buyers.
    In theory only, today resale market must be dead quiet. As a buyers, its clear that buying from developer is much more easier and is much easier on the pocket with the discount galore! Its also more sexy in walk in swanky showroom.

    As for buyers, the first time buyers are coming out in Doves for qbay to grab the discounts. These are the only type of buyers left .

    Look out for white paper coming out soon, it will provide some injection of confidence to confirm the signals LTA had give by announcing the 15 years mrt expansion plan.

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  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by pentium
    These is no denial that property prices are will be affected by CM7. However, it is still too early to tell the impact. It may take abt 6 mths to see the real effects of the CM7.

    What we can see now is that developers are already absobing the 7%, effectively prices has drop by 7% for those who bought last month.
    it just means developer has marked up by 7 to 10% and then give buyers a "feel good" 7% discount.

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    Quote Originally Posted by blackjack21trader
    Dear good brothers,

    It is good that you have doubts about any policy. This is good. Although I am not qualified to explain to you, let me be the handsome man thick skin enough to answer you.

    Good brothers,

    Policing the real estate of any capitalist country is never easy, because there exist an unholy alliance between the banks and real estate. This is because property prices are heavily influenced by financial activities like liquidity and loans. Financial activities are heavily influenced in turn by property construction or development.

    But one thing I do know about policing the property markets is that it is the most complicated process of a country as it involves the quality of life, the banks, the GDPs, economic activities, forex, foreign investments, hot money, hedge funds, stock markets and ultimately a substainable growth of a nation.

    It is never easy. In fact, it is easier to police Cooling Measures within a heated property market, than to try to re-inflate or stimulate a crashed property market. One very good recent example is the US property market crash in 2007. After 6 years, they are still trying to revive the market.

    We are a very young nation. This country is still younger than many of us (70% of us are aged between 15-64 years old ) .I for one, is merely 3 years younger than Singapore.

    For a young nation to make such economic progress within 47 years is really remarkable. As a matter of fact, we already well surpassed many developed economies in the World. One then wonders, what makes Singapore tick where others failed.

    Look for Substainable and Resilient Growth with Self-Discipline Risk Taking, as I always hinted to my business brothers.

  24. #24
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    My friend bot a condo unit at River Valley yesterday. In fact, they started viewing before CM6.

    Their calculation :
    Inflation is 4.5% a year, it will stay high, how to fight with this inflation?
    Interest rate low, and remain low.

    How they do?
    transfer the name of the only private propperty as single owner, pay only 3% of the half portion (subject to confirmation from lawyer)

    buy the second property under the other's name as first property and still taking 80% loan.

  25. #25
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    Singapore HDB policy is Santa Claus Policy.

    "What? Am I hearing this correctly," many young bothers and sisters now wondering if I am now typing from the IMH ( Institute of Mental Health).

    Let me explain before you jump to any conclusion.

    A NEW HDB gave the buyer an UNFAIR ADVANTAGE over the rest of the market segments. How so?

    Because it is a very Heavily Subsidised Investment. So UNFAIR that your humble brother sometimes imagine the HDB to be headed by Santa Claus giving away free monies !

    The construction costs itself for a single unit already well surpassed the price each citizen pay for a new HDB. Let alone if we were to take into consideration infrastructural costs or intangible benefits like lift lobby, carparks, gardens, public facillities like libraries and shopping malls.

    To add to this ridiculous charitable act, the Singapore Government actually built MRT stations ( or MTR as known in Hong Kong, or Subways as known in angmo cities ) and light rails system within walking distance of the new projects.

    Not surprisingly, the new HDB or new EC are always closer to MRT stations than the private condos. There is only one exception in the Lion City and that is ION Orchard.

    What were they thinking? Unlike the Minister who spent countless sleepless nights thinking about how to curb the sizzling hot Singapore property market; your humble brother here spent countless sleepless nights wondering if HDB is really headed by Santa Claus.

    Where on this Planet's developed cities can you find a new 900sqft 3 bedder apartment selling for less than S$500,000? If you convert that into British Pound or Swiss Franc, it looked even more ridiculous!

    Indeed, HDB is giving you free monies- albeit not in the form of hard cold cash, but in a form of market asset value which eventually you can choose to convert into cash if you want to.

    A quick mental work by your humble brother, for each new HDB unit, the buyer stands to gain at least S$20,000 from the construction costs, and at least an additional S$80,000 if you compare a similar sized HDB resale unit.

    A new BTO investment of about S$300,000 would be worth around S$400,000 if put into the resale market after complying the minimum occupation period. And that is just conservatively calculating.

    Then, for those uncles and aunties who bought their Marine Parade New HDB for less than S$100,000 20 years ago, it became even more ridiculous when a recent unit there was sold for a COLD HARD S$1,000,000.

    Now, if we even take a high inflation modal rate of 5% annually for 20 years, the uncles and aunties still stand to gain more than S$700,000 in present value terms !


    NOW YOU GET IT?

    Well, if you are a young investor with little capital, you should try to get married and then ballot for Executive Condo, BTO or HDB. Then, get a loan from HDB or bank to service your asset.

    Getting a HDB immediately after your marriage will have gotten you started a few hundred meters ahead from the rest of your peers in the long property investment marathon.

    PAP government is on the right track, dun be brainwashed by the Internet forums.

    see what my mentor said:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7D3_eGaO5k


    HDB Policy is also my Grandmother's Policy.

    "You can't be serious," I heard young punks saying this infront of their iPhones to me again.

    Read My Lips: HDB POLICY IS MY GRANDMOTHER'S POLICY !

    wow...that was just scary man......before you tell on me and get me to lim kopi, let me quickly tell you a story:

    Only a few brothers and sisters here are aware, I got to where I am today because I was born with a silver spoon. Or... I was born into a disgustingly rich family la. But anyway, that's another story.

    You see, I got a head start in property investment using a S$500,000 seed money given by my 100 years old grandmother on my 19th birthday la. ( Very paiseh...I play cheat la.....WOAHAHAHEHHEHEHEHEH )

    However, all is not lost! The roads to Rome are all different, but the destination is the same, my good young brothers and sisters.

    "I feel like smashing his face," indeed, my third eye heard you !

    Anyway, before you got all angry...listen to me for a sec.

    When you buy a HDB, the subsidised rate they gave you, is.......

    JUST LIKE THE SEED MONEY MY GRANDMOTHER GAVE ME !


    BINGO! Now you believe that I am an enlightened being with a THIRD EYE liao bo?

  26. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna
    My friend bot a condo unit at River Valley yesterday. In fact, they started viewing before CM6.

    Their calculation :
    Inflation is 4.5% a year, it will stay high, how to fight with this inflation?
    Interest rate low, and remain low.

    Your friend is so smart ! Here's WHY:

    When you buy a Singapore property, you BUY with it the following:

    1) Citizen Security provided by Government

    2) Asset Security provided by Singaporean Banks

    3) Health Security provided by Healthcare Service

    4) Currency Security provided by MAS

    5) Future Security provided by Singaporean Schools

    6) Employment Security by Singaporean Businesses & MNCs

    7) Social Security by Enforcement Agents

    8) Time Security by Efficient Statutory Boards

    9) Hedging against Natural Events like disasters

    10) Hedging against Global Currency Risks

    11) Hedging against commodity risks like Gold

    12) Hedging against Water Crisis by New-water

  27. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doom
    Ditto Economist views. Buyers are waiting on the sidelines, waiting to come in only if there is cut in prices. Some developers have already blinked. Like Q Bay. Like D'leedon. Have been getting calls from agents saying other developers are also willing to give extra discounts. And these are genuine discounts, because these are for projects I am familiar with. To say that CM7 will have no impact is hoping against hope. As Economist says, such comments are more vociferous than before previous CM. So are there some deep seated doubts lurking underneath?
    I will ignore the discounts given by Qbay and D'Leedon. While other projects were getting sold off within days, D'Leedon has been struggling in their sales for quite some time abd it would have given that additional discount even if there was no CM7. For Qbay were the initial prices reasonable in the first place ?
    We will get a clearer picture in about 3 months time. Premature to start claiming that CM7 already had its effect. We have gone through this before. It might eventually have an impact but these 2 projects are poor examples.

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    Which Government on planet Earth will give you a TOTALLY NEW REPLACEMENT FLAT when they need to use your OLD and USELESS HDB ?

    Which Government on planet Earth will allow you to take out equity from your HDB lease when you are OLD and NOBODY wants your old flat anymore?


    Which Government?

    ANSWER: Only in Singapore can you find this Government.

    Which bank in Singapore dare to behave like the angmo banksters?

    Which bank ?

    Answer: You cannot find one single Singaporean bank like that, and they will also guarantee your deposits.

    I predict with MY THIRD EYE, MASSIVE FOREIGN FUNDS WILL START TO FLOOD OUR SINGAPOREAN BANKS by MARCH 2013.



    Place your BETS !

    Remain outside the Lion City and watch your money become a SITTING DUCK, or GRAB A STAKE here and sleep soundly every night !



    I hope they upgraded their IT system liao la.



    I predict, with my THIRD EYE, that:

    Global Investors in flocks and flocks of flying machines, under the guise of Tourists, WILL JAMPACK our ONLY Airport by JUNE !


    Place your bets !

    Put your wealth in SAFE LIONS PAWS or put them in the SHAKY AND SWEATY CLAWS !

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    Point taken. While premature to say that CM7 has significant impact, it is also premature to predict that CM7 will have no impact. Which is actually the essence of the message being made here. Besides the 2 projects mentioned - for The Sennett, developer is getting cold feet and will definitely NOT launch at the prices they were firm on BEFORE CM7. Same with Bartley Ridge, which (from my sources) will now be launched at same (or slightly below) Bartley Residence prices. So there are other concrete examples. One project I am eyeing at District 12 is also giving extra 4% discount . . . the list goes on . . . while premature to say what impact CM7 will have eventually, it is starting to have some sting . . .
    Last edited by Doom; 21-01-13 at 10:54. Reason: missing word

  30. #30
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    RECESSION? FISCAL CLIFF ? ECONOMIC COLLAPSE ? ......

    SO ?

    I recalled back during 1978-1997 in my grandmother's jewellery factory, the same shouting had been going on for donkey years by our business friends. They shouted in 1978 until in 1990 when we finally bought our own buildings.




    After we bought our buildings, the prices continue to climb and climb until in 1997, when interest rates edged up to 9%. Property prices dropped indeed, but never to the prices we paid.

    Drop in Singapore property can only come when interest rates reach 12% or above. But interest rate at the moment is:IN American JAIL la.

    BTW, brothers here can recall how many recessions between 1978-1997? I was too young to remember. :P


    1978, Uncle Larry, our business friend to my uncle:

    " wah...property prices drop liao hor? next year will be worse."

    1985 Uncle Larry: " wah..recession hor, property markets cham liao lor."

    1990 Grandma bought our first Freehold 7 storey Industrial Building for S$7million.

    1992 Uncle Larry:" wah recession hor, property drop liao lor ."
    Bank valued the Industrial building at S$12million. We bought our second Office Building in Orchard for S$20million.


    1994 Uncle Larry:" wah...property price drop liao hor."
    industrial Building: S$18million
    Office Building : S$25million


    1996 Uncle Larry: " wah...si liao hor...recession coming ."
    Industrial Building: S$22million
    Office Building S$50million


    1997 Uncle Larry:" FINANCIAL CRISIS LAI LIAO LOR...SI LIAO ARH ! PROPERTY CRASH BIG TIME."
    Both valuation stagnant


    2011 Uncle Larry passed away.
    Industrial Building: S$140million
    Office Building: S$225million


    HE DIED ALREADY MY GRANDMA STILL HAVEN'T DIE ARH WOAHAHAHAHAHA

    I haven't even start to tell you about our Hong Kong properties.


    and of course, our long term property holding strategy does not work in all economies. Only economies with the following trait will enjoy the unstoppable rise in asset appreciation:

    1) GOOD GOVERNANCE ( Well managed economy by government ) that ensure continual city and urban redevelopment and advancement.

    2) PROPERTIES ARE BOUGHT by a Fully employment population ( In US recent crash, the property crash resulted from properties bought by many unemployed or low income population )

    3) TINY ( AS reminded by brother3C)

    even with a major recession. i doubt Singapore property will drop. maybe no price increase or just drop a little. the demographic of the current buyers just show that they are not uneducated and ill informed like last time.

    last time, there were just one segment ( indonesian and singaporean) of the population in the market. now, there are many segments ( prcs, indians, etc ) of the population staking in property here now.


    to crash the market. u need to increase interest rates to 12 % which i doubt anyone dare to do it, since big brother already warned the rest of the world liao. those rebellious ones all kena sued one by one u can see not?


    interest rate will only go up when liquidity in the system subsided. or when usa makan back all her us$. at present moment, she will not risk that for the middle class. because that will cause a major inflation in the US and destabilises the forex. i bet on the brother with the biggest gun.


    brothers and sisters here noticed something? That when USA prints, nobody dare not to print especially Japan. This is to make up for the exchange rates difference and to stabilise domestic currency and interest rates. There are however, a few exceptional economies, for example, that will not print:

    1) Singapore
    2) Hong Kong
    3) China ( China is being watched by USA, so she cannot any-o-how print)
    4) Germany
    5) Swiss
    6) England
    7) European Union

    brothers and sisters know why? Well, the answer is simple. The first 5 economies have low unemployment rates EXCEPT for item (7).

    if an economy has high unemployment rates, and you do not print, it will mean prices will go up. This includes social welfare costs will also go up. And see what happened to Greece when it is pegged to Euro?Of course it is no fault of Greece since her currency is Euro and not under her control.


    And if you dun print, what happens?

    So clever: ANS: INFLATION.


    And if you have high unemployment and still dun print what happens?

    So clever again !

    ANS: GREECE.


    And if you print and print like USA, what happens?

    ANS: You will need to take care of the REVENUE side which is either:

    a) Do away with welfare and risk rebellions.

    b) Tax the rich and make Skywalker happy.


    And that is exactly what Obama is trying to do now, to take care of the REVENUE side and you know what is so unique about Singapore CCR properties, OCR Condos or HDBs in all districts (except I explained before, ONLY LANDED WILL DROP)that I am so confident that prices will not drop?

    HINT: No, nothing to do with inflation, safe haven or strong GDP. something else, so obvious that even the professors,analysts,bankers, stock brokers,property developers, world leaders and phds in economics CAN miss it when it is staring right in their faces.

    I will share with you this in this forum later



    WOAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

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