CM7 should be revised, my sincere advice to government

[economist]

Although my the other thread suggests that CM7 may likely result in a fall in price due to the dramatic decrease of demand (larger than the drop in supply, http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=16552 ), the government can actually be more effective by announcing a more explicit target, or, at least not as ambiguous as previous wordings like "things turn around". I thought government should have learnt from Fed and ECB that, things can be more effective once you conquer the expectations, by setting a target (like Fed's unemployment rate target) or showing your stern position (like ECB's OMT, which actually lowers the peripheral yields by just announcing it without actually implementing it); for example, government can set a price fall target of 15% within 2 years, and promise to implement more measure until this is achieved. This will temper the market expectation and make CM7 more effective.

And while doing so, always keep the current good treatment of first-timers , and do not deprive Singaporeans the rights to invest if they have ample cash, do not squeeze out more tax while implementing the CMs. Add the remission of ABSD if Singaporeans purchases with a LTV of less than 50% or 40% or similar, for those true investors, they did nothing wrong to deserve the 7% or 10% ABSD. With this remission of ABSD, you would also add a little liquidity to the market while keeping CM7 effective.

Call it a CM7 revision, and act swiftly!

[Ricade]

wah bro.. no government wants to be seen as anti-growth.. i think this suggestion is too extreme. They have 'reputation' to uphold to u know..

this cooling measure that they have is good enough lah

[economist]

As the DBS chairman said, his feel is that garment is prepared to trade off some growth.

My advise to garment is therefore, if you want to do it, do it like a man, do it like Ben, set a target, and all the arguments here will stop. Don't make announcement with vague words leaving the market guessing, and don't implement a CM using the ridiculous ABSD to add to the tax burden of your own people.

[taggy]

for example, government can set a price fall target of 15% within 2 years, and promise to implement more measure until this is achieved.

haha, if really announce like this, price straight away correct 15%...
it will be so effective, until the sg prop is at ice temperature forever
and please dun say, drop liao, later remove the cm again... who will have confidence in the policy maker again?

[rockinsg]

As the DBS chairman said, his feel is that garment is prepared to trade off some growth.

My advise to garment is therefore, if you want to do it, do it like a man, do it like Ben, set a target, and all the arguments here will stop. Don't make announcement with vague words leaving the market guessing, and don't implement a CM using the ridiculous ABSD to add to the tax burden of your own people.

You really don't get it
Why you think people are investing at the first place?
Ben can talk and give u money out of his a**

Govt need resources time people land and infrastructure to build house.

How govt can cool the market without Absd? If too many foreigners or even Singaporean keep investing Singapore will run out of land and infrastructure.

[timmy]

As the DBS chairman said, his feel is that garment is prepared to trade off some growth.

My advise to garment is therefore, if you want to do it, do it like a man, do it like Ben, set a target, and all the arguments here will stop. Don't make announcement with vague words leaving the market guessing, and don't implement a CM using the ridiculous ABSD to add to the tax burden of your own people.

Seriously, if you are from the gahment, what target would you set? 5% 10% 15% drop? What is considered a healthy correction that works best in the interest of the population and which will meet strategic agenda such as laying the grounds for upcoming announcements (eg population white paper). No easy answer, bro economist. Current policy formulation leaves wriggle room for adjustment later and yet sends a strong enough signal to the market.

On the absd, I fully agree with your comments.

[economist]

wondering if someone working for KBW is watching...

[kane]

What do you think the developers would do if they explicit stated a targeted fall of 15% in home prices. Must consider things from multiple angles young man.

[fan]

Gahment wants to tame it, not kill it. Target -15% is disastrous

[newbie11]

Cm7 is good for commercial. Ask the buyers today at Alexandra park hotel

[Kelonguni]

Do that, and no more developers want to come SG. They want sustainability for long term gain of all, not crash the market and all lose except benefit a small group.

[minority]

Cm7 is good for commercial. Ask the buyers today at Alexandra park hotel

huat ah..... that 1

[imjason]

LOL... You certainly have no idea what's the rational behind CMs...

Property is never meant for investment

Think about it !!!

[economist]

Using unfounded judgmental words doesn't help.

LOL... You certainly have no idea what's the rational behind CMs...

Property is never meant for investment

Think about it !!!

[teddybear]

Why your advocated policy so extreme anti-foreigners (foreigners include PRs Ok). Such policies will only drive rich foreigners, make them move out, close their factories and businesses here and results in surge in unemployment. Policies targeting problems of economy are not so simple as what you advocated. Are you sure you are "economist"? You don't know that long-run rate of acceptable inflation is 3% and usually property prices will increase slightly more than that (without monetary stimulus)? With monetary stimulus, property prices is expected to increase much more than inflation.

And Where on earth would any govt actually want property prices to crash 15% and create deflation? By the way, Japan still can't climb out of deflation. As such, govts all over the world are more scare of deflation than inflation.

I think that is enough from me, a non-economist.....

Although my the other thread suggests that CM7 may likely result in a fall in price due to the dramatic decrease of demand (larger than the drop in supply, http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=16552 ), the government can actually be more effective by announcing a more explicit target, or, at least not as ambiguous as previous wordings like "things turn around". I thought government should have learnt from Fed and ECB that, things can be more effective once you conquer the expectations, by setting a target (like Fed's unemployment rate target) or showing your stern position (like ECB's OMT, which actually lowers the peripheral yields by just announcing it without actually implementing it); for example, government can set a price fall target of 15% within 2 years, and promise to implement more measure until this is achieved. This will temper the market expectation and make CM7 more effective.

And while doing so, always keep the current good treatment of first-timers , and do not deprive Singaporeans the rights to invest if they have ample cash, do not squeeze out more tax while implementing the CMs. Add the remission of ABSD if Singaporeans purchases with a LTV of less than 50% or 40% or similar, for those true investors, they did nothing wrong to deserve the 7% or 10% ABSD. With this remission of ABSD, you would also add a little liquidity to the market while keeping CM7 effective.

Call it a CM7 revision, and act swiftly!

[economist]

I'm not anti-foreigners, our ancestors all come from foreign countries, right? I'm merely suggesting a more effective revision IF the government is really sincere of "turn around", and I really personally don't like the vague wordings as well as the fact that ABSD is applied universally to additional properties instead of simply adjusting LTVs higher (govt is trying to tax the way out). Harsher tax can be applied to foreigners, PRs, but should be temporary, as Singapore still needs foreigners to thrive, and our properties need them even more.

Anyway, further discussions here don't make much more sense now as we are not garment.

Why your advocated policy so extreme anti-foreigners (foreigners include PRs Ok). Such policies will only drive rich foreigners, make them move out, close their factories and businesses here and results in surge in unemployment. Policies targeting problems of economy are not so simple as what you advocated. Are you sure you are "economist"? You don't know that long-run rate of acceptable inflation is 3% and usually property prices will increase slightly more than that (without monetary stimulus)? With monetary stimulus, property prices is expected to increase much more than inflation.

And Where on earth would any govt actually want property prices to crash 15% and create deflation? By the way, Japan still can't climb out of deflation. As such, govts all over the world are more scare of deflation than inflation.

I think that is enough from me, a non-economist.....

[RCT]

Why your advocated policy so extreme anti-foreigners (foreigners include PRs Ok). Such policies will only drive rich foreigners, make them move out, close their factories and businesses here and results in surge in unemployment. Policies targeting problems of economy are not so simple as what you advocated. Are you sure you are "economist"? You don't know that long-run rate of acceptable inflation is 3% and usually property prices will increase slightly more than that (without monetary stimulus)? With monetary stimulus, property prices is expected to increase much more than inflation.

And Where on earth would any govt actually want property prices to crash 15% and create deflation? By the way, Japan still can't climb out of deflation. As such, govts all over the world are more scare of deflation than inflation.

I think that is enough from me, a non-economist.....

Japan is a victim of currency war against USA in which they lose badly.. You think Japan don't know how to use QE? You think Japan don't know a strong yen is affecting their economy? A weak yen is to their advantage as they hold trillions dollars worth of US Bond. With a strong yen, do you know how much Japan lost.

Same thing why China is depressing CNY. It is just to the advantage of China to do it as they hold 1.7 trillion USD. But I feel with the 2008 Crisis. USA is slowly losing this war against China and Japan. Even Germany is joining the war when it declare that it is going to withdraw tons of gold from USA and Europe. Let see how US continue with this..

[DKSG]

Why your advocated policy so extreme anti-foreigners (foreigners include PRs Ok). Such policies will only drive rich foreigners, make them move out, close their factories and businesses here and results in surge in unemployment. Policies targeting problems of economy are not so simple as what you advocated. Are you sure you are "economist"? You don't know that long-run rate of acceptable inflation is 3% and usually property prices will increase slightly more than that (without monetary stimulus)? With monetary stimulus, property prices is expected to increase much more than inflation.

And Where on earth would any govt actually want property prices to crash 15% and create deflation? By the way, Japan still can't climb out of deflation. As such, govts all over the world are more scare of deflation than inflation.

I think that is enough from me, a non-economist.....

This is the same mentality as someone we know.

As long as property price drops and they get to buy cheap, it doesnt matter if the side effects are people pulling out of Singapore, leaving behind Singaporeans and their dream condos at cheap prices.

We must understand that Singapore has no natural resources. Have you wondered why for each Singaporean employee companies can employ a dozen in India/China/Philippines ?

Think, my friends, Think!

Making calls to crash the property market is in NOBODY's interest. This is exactly the same as the "dont build the old folks home next to my block" complain, except that this time, the one complaining is an old folk himself - see how silly ?

DKSG

[ysyap]

LOL... You certainly have no idea what's the rational behind CMs...

Property is never meant for investment

Think about it !!!

Ask Robert Kiyosaki and Robbie Fowler.

[DKSG]

Ask Robert Kiyosaki and Robbie Fowler.

This is the same as saying - Stamps are only meant for sending letters, Gold is only meant to be made into pendant, bracelets, whatever to be worn... and the list goes on and on ...

DKSG

[DKSG]

I think there is a misunderstanding of the words Cooling Measures.

It is meant to cool the market, not CRASH the market.

If government says it is a CRASHING MEASURE, then I admit we should bring back all the taxes and scare the hell out of all classes of investors.

The aim of the current CM is the COOL the market and moderate prices increases to be in line with fundamentals.

DKSG

[eng81157]

I think there is a misunderstanding of the words Cooling Measures.

It is meant to cool the market, not CRASH the market.

If government says it is a CRASHING MEASURE, then I admit we should bring back all the taxes and scare the hell out of all classes of investors.

The aim of the current CM is the COOL the market and moderate prices increases to be in line with fundamentals.

DKSG

want to crash market - easy: 50% tax on capital gains

[Paulder]

I'm not sure why a lot of bros here have a mis-construed understanding of TS's posts.

He said to make CM7 more effective with a target in mind as well as changes to the Absd, so as to not punish those who can afford unnecessarily, since at the end of the day, it is the bank and economy that the govt wants to protect.

I don't believe he mentioned anything about wanting to crash the market?

[kane]

Although my the other thread suggests that CM7 may likely result in a fall in price due to the dramatic decrease of demand (larger than the drop in supply, http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=16552 ), the government can actually be more effective by announcing a more explicit target, or, at least not as ambiguous as previous wordings like "things turn around". I thought government should have learnt from Fed and ECB that, things can be more effective once you conquer the expectations, by setting a target (like Fed's unemployment rate target) or showing your stern position (like ECB's OMT, which actually lowers the peripheral yields by just announcing it without actually implementing it); for example, government can set a price fall target of 15% within 2 years, and promise to implement more measure until this is achieved. This will temper the market expectation and make CM7 more effective.

....

Call it a CM7 revision, and act swiftly!

This was his example, a target of -15% wor.

[minority]

Although my the other thread suggests that CM7 may likely result in a fall in price due to the dramatic decrease of demand (larger than the drop in supply, http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=16552 ), the government can actually be more effective by announcing a more explicit target, or, at least not as ambiguous as previous wordings like "things turn around". I thought government should have learnt from Fed and ECB that, things can be more effective once you conquer the expectations, by setting a target (like Fed's unemployment rate target) or showing your stern position (like ECB's OMT, which actually lowers the peripheral yields by just announcing it without actually implementing it); for example, government can set a price fall target of 15% within 2 years, and promise to implement more measure until this is achieved. This will temper the market expectation and make CM7 more effective.

And while doing so, always keep the current good treatment of first-timers , and do not deprive Singaporeans the rights to invest if they have ample cash, do not squeeze out more tax while implementing the CMs. Add the remission of ABSD if Singaporeans purchases with a LTV of less than 50% or 40% or similar, for those true investors, they did nothing wrong to deserve the 7% or 10% ABSD. With this remission of ABSD, you would also add a little liquidity to the market while keeping CM7 effective.

Call it a CM7 revision, and act swiftly!

Why must revise? Becoz some people miss the boat to invest? How can u give 1st timmer chance n still let people invest? Where $ come from? To be meaningful to let the investment eco system work u need outside funds. How can ot be made a singaporean only landscape. Shit happens we all die cxxk standing.

I feel the current cm is harsh but its fair for the current situation. Give those who need a roof a chance.

[Paulder]

This was his example, a target of -15% wor.

15% is crash meh? I'm thinking more of > 30% then considered bad downturn.

But I could be wrong of course. What's the amount of correction that gurus here are comfortable with?

[Shanhz]

15% is crash meh? I'm thinking more of > 30% then considered bad downturn.

But I could be wrong of course. What's the amount of correction that gurus here are comfortable with?

by garmen stnds, 40% down, that's why LTV 60%

[economist]

That's simple, the reactions are very negative here, because my example of -15% meant a crash for them, while in a more balanced view, -15% is a correction, not a crash.

I didn't think CM7 was to ensure price continue moderate increase with fundamentals. I remember the ministers said the price increase has already exceeded fundamentals, and they want to see a "turn around".

[pentium]

That's simple, the reactions are very negative here, because my example of -15% meant a crash for them, while in a more balanced view, -15% is a correction, not a crash.

I didn't think CM7 was to ensure price continue moderate increase with fundamentals. I remember the ministers said the price increase has already exceeded fundamentals, and they want to see a "turn around".

Using the stock market as a guide, anything -20% is just a correction. Investing in property is higher risk than stock as you are leverage many times. ie down 100k, borrow 400k. If you like salted fish, you must be able to tahan thirst

[Paulder]

Using the stock market as a guide, anything -20% is just a correction. Investing in property is higher risk than stock as you are leverage many times. ie down 100k, borrow 400k. If you like salted fish, you must be able to tahan thirst

Wah! Like your salted fish analogy! Haha