Percentage of foreign buyers has dropped significantly

[economist]

The last round ABSD had this effect on foreigner:
"foreigners who were not Singapore PRs accounted for just 6.2 per cent of the 23,312 caveats lodged for private homes excluding executive condos in the first nine months (2012) - down from their 17.5 per cent share in full-year 2011."

So why are we still talking about foreigners flocking into Singapore? There was perhaps a little increase of the percentage in 4Q2012, but with the new ABSD, the percentage of foreign buyers is going to stay low for a considerable amount of time...

And all the talks about how good our Singapore is, how Indians and PRCs like Singapore, all these are already well known fact for many years, it is not very relevant to keep repeating that, perhaps just to give mental support to each other? One needs to look at the percentage stated above.

[leesg123]

and your point is? what are you trying to prove?

[leftfield]

and your point is? what are you trying to prove?

So by extension, demand coming down, prices will crash.

[indomie]

Foreigners are not abandoning sg property. Its like any other investment... Investors are looking for a greater return. At this very moment unfortunately it is better for them to invest in their home land properties than sg properties. Indonesia property is experiencing a huge capital appreciation that u will never believe. Now their capital appreciation is such a way that sg property beginning to look cheap. This is one of the reason that the gov implement 3% + 18% stamp duty. This situation will not last forever. The rise of the new rich from our neighbourhood countries will find its way into sg properties sooner rather than later.

[yaozong7]

and your point is? what are you trying to prove?

His pt is that many agents/owners keep talking in this forum about how foreigners are flocking to SG to buy properties, but this pt is not proven in the 2012 caveats lodged.

[nav14]

The last round ABSD had this effect on foreigner:
"foreigners who were not Singapore PRs accounted for just 6.2 per cent of the 23,312 caveats lodged for private homes excluding executive condos in the first nine months (2012) - down from their 17.5 per cent share in full-year 2011."

So why are we still talking about foreigners flocking into Singapore? There was perhaps a little increase of the percentage in 4Q2012, but with the new ABSD, the percentage of foreign buyers is going to stay low for a considerable amount of time...

And all the talks about how good our Singapore is, how Indians and PRCs like Singapore, all these are already well known fact for many years, it is not very relevant to keep repeating that, perhaps just to give mental support to each other? One needs to look at the percentage stated above.

My colleague bought a old single storey original condition semi-d for 1.15m about 2 1/2 yrs ago. Recently put up on the market for sale. 5 people came to view and 3 offers were made and all 3 were PRCians. Highest offer was 2.45m. All 3 PRCians were parents of kids who became Singaporean after studying here. So technically still foreigners except for one family member. The foreigners especially the PRCians have their way on bringing their millions here with miminum penalties.
The govt in their quest to keep the population ratio balanced, seems to be dishing out PRs and citizenships more easily to PRCians than any other ethnic group.
So forget about all those published figures.

[nav14]

My colleague bought a old single storey original condition semi-d for 1.15m about 2 1/2 yrs ago. Recently put up on the market for sale. 5 people came to view and 3 offers were made and all 3 were PRCians. Highest offer was 2.45m. All 3 PRCians were parents of kids who became Singaporean after studying here. So technically still foreigners except for one family member. The foreigners especially the PRCians have their way on bringing their millions here with miminum penalties.
The govt in their quest to keep the population ratio balanced, seems to be dishing out PRs and citizenships more easily to PRCians than any other ethnic group.
So forget about all those published figures.

To make it more clearer , the property is bought in the name of their child who has become a local and all money is provided by the parents. How can landed property prices ever decline until the govt makes it just as strict for PRCians to become Singaporeans.

[Shanhz]

My colleague bought a old single storey original condition semi-d for 1.15m about 2 1/2 yrs ago. Recently put up on the market for sale. 5 people came to view and 3 offers were made and all 3 were PRCians. Highest offer was 2.45m. All 3 PRCians were parents of kids who became Singaporean after studying here. So technically still foreigners except for one family member. The foreigners especially the PRCians have their way on bringing their millions here with miminum penalties.
The govt in their quest to keep the population ratio balanced, seems to be dishing out PRs and citizenships more easily to PRCians than any other ethnic group.
So forget about all those published figures.

in mid 2010, i was looking at an original state 1 storey semi det in sembawang asking for <1.0mil. someone bot it b4 i could make an offer.

[indomie]

Most foreign property investment are located at ccr areas. The ccr areas have been the laggard in term of capital appreciation and rental yield. When the momentums are back to ccr areas, that's where u will see the return of foreign investors.

[nav14]

in mid 2010, i was looking at an original state 1 storey semi det in sembawang asking for <1.0mil. someone bot it b4 i could make an offer.

Yes the house I am referring to is also in Sembawang , near the beach. Land area is 2400sq ft. The PRCians are very active in the landed property market but for many of them their caveats will still show them as locals as it is bought in their children's name. The huge increase in prices of the landed property market could be attributed to the PRCians, to a large extent.

[economist]

Not only the number of foreigner buyers is dropping.

The number of SCs and PRs granted each year have also been dropping:
a quick glance through the NPTD paper shows that:

79,167 PRs were granted in 2008 while only 27,521 were granted in 2011. For SCs, that was 20,513 and 15,777.

The granting of PR has shown a sharp decrease.

My colleague bought a old single storey original condition semi-d for 1.15m about 2 1/2 yrs ago. Recently put up on the market for sale. 5 people came to view and 3 offers were made and all 3 were PRCians. Highest offer was 2.45m. All 3 PRCians were parents of kids who became Singaporean after studying here. So technically still foreigners except for one family member. The foreigners especially the PRCians have their way on bringing their millions here with miminum penalties.
The govt in their quest to keep the population ratio balanced, seems to be dishing out PRs and citizenships more easily to PRCians than any other ethnic group.
So forget about all those published figures.

[nav14]

Most foreign property investment are located at ccr areas. The ccr areas have been the laggard in term of capital appreciation and rental yield. When the momentums are back to ccr areas, that's where u will see the return of foreign investors.

For the PRCians anything goes. When the CCR market starts stirring it means more non-PRCians are in the market.

[pentium]

Not only the number of foreigner buyers is dropping.

The number of SCs and PRs granted each year have also been dropping:
a quick glance through the NPTD paper shows that:

79,167 PRs were granted in 2008 while only 27,521 were granted in 2011. For SCs, that was 20,513 and 15,777.

The granting of PR has shown a sharp decrease.

Kindly add up the total number of PRs over the 5 years. The number is mind bogling. with some many hundred of thousands, "What do you think?"

[nav14]

Not only the number of foreigner buyers is dropping.

The number of SCs and PRs granted each year have also been dropping:
a quick glance through the NPTD paper shows that:

79,167 PRs were granted in 2008 while only 27,521 were granted in 2011. For SCs, that was 20,513 and 15,777.

The granting of PR has shown a sharp decrease.

But a large number of them are still for PRCians, which are a major source of buyers in the market. Can you get figures for how many were PRCians, Indians, etc.? Previously the proportion of Indians granted PRs and Citizeships was very large but based on anecdotal evidence this has gone down while the number for PRCians remain high.

[indomie]

Not only the number of foreigner buyers is dropping.

The number of SCs and PRs granted each year have also been dropping:
a quick glance through the NPTD paper shows that:

79,167 PRs were granted in 2008 while only 27,521 were granted in 2011. For SCs, that was 20,513 and 15,777.

The granting of PR has shown a sharp decrease.

The price of PR ship now is minimum of 2.5 million dollar. Although there is a sharp decrease, the quality improve a lot.

[acidic.straw]

Foreigners are not abandoning sg property. Its like any other investment... Investors are looking for a greater return. At this very moment unfortunately it is better for them to invest in their home land properties than sg properties. Indonesia property is experiencing a huge capital appreciation that u will never believe. Now their capital appreciation is such a way that sg property beginning to look cheap. This is one of the reason that the gov implement 3% + 18% stamp duty. This situation will not last forever. The rise of the new rich from our neighbourhood countries will find its way into sg properties sooner rather than later.

3% + 15% stamp duty

[indomie]

The point is... Many singaporeans are so unaware, that the gov are protecting them so much. If u have to live in neighbouring countries you will be so shock out of your shell. You who wish that the prices will drop will be so despair when it actually came true. It is the money that separate us from the rest of the world. Once its breached u will cry mother and father.

[indomie]

3% + 15% stamp duty

I stand corrected

[Kelonguni]

Not only the number of foreigner buyers is dropping.

The number of SCs and PRs granted each year have also been dropping:
a quick glance through the NPTD paper shows that:

79,167 PRs were granted in 2008 while only 27,521 were granted in 2011. For SCs, that was 20,513 and 15,777.

The granting of PR has shown a sharp decrease.

15,777 of SCs in a year! 20,513 PRs? Some more all highly qualified, earning higher than our average income? I think the 200K new houses will not last long at all. Plus our own demand, maybe just meet demand only.

[economist]

From Business Times, Jan 23, 2013:

Last year, foreigners who were not Singapore permanent residents (PRs) accounted for just 6.3 per cent of all private home purchases on the island - the lowest proportion since 2003 and a significant drop from the 17.6 per cent share in 2011, Knight Frank's analysis of URA Realis caveats data showed.
"The record low proportion is a reflection of reduced foreign buying interest arising from higher (transactional) cost, with the introduction of 10 per cent ABSD on all residential property purchases by non-PR foreigners starting Dec 8, 2011," said Knight Frank's senior manager, consultancy and research, Alice Tan.
And with the ABSD rate for this group jacked up to 15 per cent since Jan 12 this year, Knight Frank forecasts that these non-PR foreigners' share of private home buying will shrink to 5 per cent in the first six months of this year.

[Sam88]

wait for the paper - coming soon

http://www.reach.gov.sg/YourSay/Disc...?ssFormAction=[[ssBlogThread_VIEW]]&tid=[[7169]]

Another key point from the paper is that regardless of scenario, Singapore’s citizen population will continue to age. From now to 2030, Singapore will see ‘an unprecedented age shift, as over 900,000 baby boomers will retire from their workforce’, according to NPTD. Without immigration, there will be a plunge in the number of working adults supporting the elderly, from the current 6.3 to 1 to 2.1 to 1.
Responding to media queries, NPTD has stressed that the Government ‘will continue to ensure that we take in immigrants who are of good quality and able to integrate well into our society’. Applications are assessed holistically on criteria, such as applicants’ family ties to Singapore, economic contributions, qualifications, age and commitment to sinking roots in Singapore.

[seletar]

From Business Times, Jan 23, 2013:

Last year, foreigners who were not Singapore permanent residents (PRs) accounted for just 6.3 per cent of all private home purchases on the island - the lowest proportion since 2003 and a significant drop from the 17.6 per cent share in 2011, Knight Frank's analysis of URA Realis caveats data showed.
"The record low proportion is a reflection of reduced foreign buying interest arising from higher (transactional) cost, with the introduction of 10 per cent ABSD on all residential property purchases by non-PR foreigners starting Dec 8, 2011," said Knight Frank's senior manager, consultancy and research, Alice Tan.
And with the ABSD rate for this group jacked up to 15 per cent since Jan 12 this year, Knight Frank forecasts that these non-PR foreigners' share of private home buying will shrink to 5 per cent in the first six months of this year.

The article also forecast that PR private home buyers will also drop a lot, from 15.8% share in 2012 to 5-10% share in first half of 2013.

[sabbie]

The last round ABSD had this effect on foreigner:
"foreigners who were not Singapore PRs accounted for just 6.2 per cent of the 23,312 caveats lodged for private homes excluding executive condos in the first nine months (2012) - down from their 17.5 per cent share in full-year 2011."

So why are we still talking about foreigners flocking into Singapore? There was perhaps a little increase of the percentage in 4Q2012, but with the new ABSD, the percentage of foreign buyers is going to stay low for a considerable amount of time...

And all the talks about how good our Singapore is, how Indians and PRCs like Singapore, all these are already well known fact for many years, it is not very relevant to keep repeating that, perhaps just to give mental support to each other? One needs to look at the percentage stated above.

so knowledgeable and smart, can you be my idol

[economist]

deleted ... ...

[indomie]

From Business Times, Jan 23, 2013:

Last year, foreigners who were not Singapore permanent residents (PRs) accounted for just 6.3 per cent of all private home purchases on the island - the lowest proportion since 2003 and a significant drop from the 17.6 per cent share in 2011, Knight Frank's analysis of URA Realis caveats data showed.
"The record low proportion is a reflection of reduced foreign buying interest arising from higher (transactional) cost, with the introduction of 10 per cent ABSD on all residential property purchases by non-PR foreigners starting Dec 8, 2011," said Knight Frank's senior manager, consultancy and research, Alice Tan.
And with the ABSD rate for this group jacked up to 15 per cent since Jan 12 this year, Knight Frank forecasts that these non-PR foreigners' share of private home buying will shrink to 5 per cent in the first six months of this year.

Are u expecting a fall in prices?

[economist]

The pressure will be on the downside, due to the demand/supply imbalance...

Are u expecting a fall in prices?

[indomie]

The pressure will be on the downside, due to the demand/supply imbalance...

Are u at this very moment already see the imbalances in favour of supply rather demand? If not yet, when are u going to see such situation begin to happen.

[Werther]

Yes the house I am referring to is also in Sembawang , near the beach. Land area is 2400sq ft. The PRCians are very active in the landed property market but for many of them their caveats will still show them as locals as it is bought in their children's name. The huge increase in prices of the landed property market could be attributed to the PRCians, to a large extent.

Hi Nav

Really, that's not good news. So now landed properties are owned by 'non-local'? I also drive by some houses, currently rebuilding, usually owners name on the board is a foreign name....sigh

[RCT]

Imagine buying a investment tools and lose 20% up front.. I think rich people will really think twice before investing.. They have to ask a few question

1) When can I break even? Foreigners are being tax 19% to 31% depending on how long they hold their property. That means the property must at least raise by 19% to 31% for them to break even. (That exclude all the misc charges) Good Deal?

2) What is the potential upside? Is Singapore Property going to raise another 50% or 100% in the next few years? What is the downside if the economy goes wrong or more CM? 10% or 20% in the next few years?

3) Is there a better investment opp? Is it better to invest in other place or other investment tools? Like investing in USA, Brazil, Australia, etc.. Or investing into gold, equity, etc?

I believe unless that they have a clear answer for the above question. I am not sure they will come for investment...

[yjcai]

2010-basic shouting since i joined, price never come down
2011-basic shouting since i joined, price never come down
2012-basic shouting since i joined, price never come down
2013-economist?

anyway i like your analogy economist. but you got to factor in whether developer lower the land price for you. the portion on land bid is most critical because it is the segment that has outperformed inflation. even you say PR, foreigner not buying not buying, supply outstrip demand. If developer balance sheet net debt is < 0, you think they care about you?

They just hold, though CM bring their revenue down. They continue holding and outlast. Even with less bids, prices will trend sideways. The big property counters are very cautious this time round. Give you CDL for example, their cash almost == current liabilities with the most land bank. With this kind of cash they got no problem holding for the next 5 years.