Don't cheat yourself - Wrong interpretation of population white paper and foreigners

[economist]

Stop cheating yourselves! - Wrong interpretation of population white paper and foreigners buying into Singapore

First on population white paper, which may likely announce 7mil target in 2030.

Assuming population reaches 7mil in 2030, which is an increase of 1.7mil comparing to June 2012. When we analyse impact on housing, we need to exclude domestic workers which is about 4%, and some of the work-permit holders who stay in dormitory, there is no number for the latter, but i know the total % of work-permit holders as of total population is 13%, so let's say half of them stay in dormitory. So, we have 90% of the 1.7m needs housing, that is, 1.53m. Then, using an average household size of 3.5 (average of Singapore in 2011), this translates to the need of 437K units (public and private included), or 24K units per year, this includes both public and private.

In the past years, the government failed to build enough, there was therefore some pent-up demand pushing up prices in the past few years. But the next few years from 2013 to 2016 will see 197,559 units ready, that is, 49,389 units per year.

Now, u can compare 24K with 49K.

I therefore say, 7mil population target in 2030, is NOT a positive. How much pent-up demand remains to be pent-up even after the cruel CM7 is anyone's guess, but I take Khaw's words, that, this 197,559 units supply is HUGE, so I don’t see the relevance of just talking about the 7mil population target as if this number will give you some comfort. You have compare it with supply.

Next on foreigners.

I know some forumers like to tout how good Singapore, how foreigners like Singapore as if there is no other place to go, how Singapore is ranked at one of the top places and so on. OK, these are facts, we all like Singapore since we live here, just like NewYorkers will say many good things about NYC.

But, let’s look at the numbers, last year, foreigners who were not Singapore permanent residents (PRs) accounted for just 6.3 per cent of all private home purchases on the island - the lowest proportion since 2003 and a significant drop from the 17.6 per cent share in 2011, Knight Frank's analysis of URA Realis caveats data showed.

This is the result of 10% ABSD, now, what do you think the percentage will be with 15% ABSD?

Now, if you don’t like my post, just boycott my thread, and don’t read it, but, please don’t throw bad words in my thread. Don't make yourselves look uncivilized.

[Sam88]

look at this and you will be enlightened

http://www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/popn/smd2011.pdf

how many are married a year? is the hdb the khaw mentioned on bto? what is bto? so this bto will find newly weds? how many will rent out the rooms?

minus away bto, how many ECs, dbss and PCs. you will have your answer.

you have to look at the totality. how many hdbs were built over the past 5 years compared to number of marriages. so is there a demand on hdb. look at past statistics and see how many applicants to successful hdb owners on bto.

refer to this
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/the...hist/popn.html

refer to corresponding dwellings in each year.

[sabbie]

Stop cheating yourselves! - Wrong interpretation of population white paper and foreigners buying into Singapore

First on population white paper, which may likely announce 7mil target in 2030.

Assuming population reaches 7mil in 2030, which is an increase of 1.7mil comparing to June 2012. When we analyse impact on housing, we need to exclude domestic workers which is about 4%, and some of the work-permit holders who stay in dormitory, there is no number for the latter, but i know the total % of work-permit holders as of total population is 13%, so let's say half of them stay in dormitory. So, we have 90% of the 1.7m needs housing, that is, 1.53m. Then, using an average household size of 3.5 (average of Singapore in 2011), this translates to the need of 437K units (public and private included), or 24K units per year, this includes both public and private.

In the past years, the government failed to build enough, there was therefore some pent-up demand pushing up prices in the past few years. But the next few years from 2013 to 2016 will see 197,559 units ready, that is, 49,389 units per year.

Now, u can compare 24K with 49K.

I therefore say, 7mil population target in 2030, is NOT a positive. How much pent-up demand remains to be pent-up even after the cruel CM7 is anyone's guess, but I take Khaw's words, that, this 197,559 units supply is HUGE, so I don’t see the relevance of just talking about the 7mil population target as if this number will give you some comfort. You have compare it with supply.

Next on foreigners.

I know some forumers like to tout how good Singapore, how foreigners like Singapore as if there is no other place to go, how Singapore is ranked at one of the top places and so on. OK, these are facts, we all like Singapore since we live here, just like NewYorkers will say many good things about NYC.

But, let’s look at the numbers, last year, foreigners who were not Singapore permanent residents (PRs) accounted for just 6.3 per cent of all private home purchases on the island - the lowest proportion since 2003 and a significant drop from the 17.6 per cent share in 2011, Knight Frank's analysis of URA Realis caveats data showed.

This is the result of 10% ABSD, now, what do you think the percentage will be with 15% ABSD?

Now, if you don’t like my post, just boycott my thread, and don’t read it, but, please don’t throw bad words in my thread. Don't make yourselves look uncivilized.

wah you so smart, i like

[economist]

Sam88, you made some points, thanks. Marriage, divorce, natural death, etc. are many factors affecting demand, rental market, etc. anyway, my view is a simplified approach purely looking at total house stock vs total population, without breaking down into what is for newly wed, what can be left for rentals, etc. it can be made more sophisticated given time.

[indomie]

U are not the first person ever make such calculation, even the professional such as colin tan has made such analysis before. What I want from u is the compeling argument that population increase will result in falling property prices. Make me a believer.

[economist]

Yes, agree. I also reckon it is a simplified view, really nothing. One of the points I want to make is to argue against what some forumers always do, like touting 7mil number, foreigners flocking here and so on, and then there will be posts flattering one another.

U are not the first person ever make such calculation, even the professional such as colin tan has made such analysis before. What I want from u is the compeling argument that population increase will result in falling property prices. Make me a believer.

[indomie]

Yes, agree. I also reckon it is a simplified view, really nothing. One of the points I want to make is to argue against what some forumers always do, like touting 7mil number, foreigners flocking here and so on, and then there will be posts flattering one another.

I am sorry if I make u sick... But have build a certain level of camaraderie in this forum. We don't all talk about property all the time. In my age I take any friend I can get, even its a virtual one.

[Jaykj]

Yes, agree. I also reckon it is a simplified view, really nothing. One of the points I want to make is to argue against what some forumers always do, like touting 7mil number, foreigners flocking here and so on, and then there will be posts flattering one another.

You have already admited your view is simplified and really nothing, so how to argue? Want to argue, must have substance right? I mean, just like you said those forumers who keep touting 7m population are lame, your counter aint much better. Its like a pot calling the kettle black.

imo, no need to post so much, create so much new threads and try to paint a bearish picture. Then keep debating with the bulls. Waste time leh...better off spending your time enjoying life with friends or family or contributing to society (work or helping out in social welfare org). My advice, dun bother being a bear lah. Likewise, those who post bullish reports, let them post lah.....great `feel good' reading anyway for many ppty owners and investors. But in itself, its not going to cause prices to rise anymore than the bearish reports posted by you or some others like Seletar and basic.

[Paulder]

I am sorry if I make u sick... But have build a certain level of camaraderie in this forum. We don't all talk about property all the time. In my age I take any friend I can get, even its a virtual one.

This post I like a lot.

[chngz]

You have already admited your view is simplified and really nothing, so how to argue? Want to argue, must have substance right? I mean, just like you said those forumers who keep touting 7m population are lame, your counter aint much better. Its like a pot calling the kettle black.

imo, no need to post so much, create so much new threads and try to paint a bearish picture. Then keep debating with the bulls. Waste time leh...better off spending your time enjoying life with friends or family or contributing to society (work or helping out in social welfare org). My advice, dun bother being a bear lah. Likewise, those who post bullish reports, let them post lah.....great `feel good' reading anyway for many ppty owners and investors. But in itself, its not going to cause prices to rise anymore than the bearish reports posted by you or some others like Seletar and basic.

well said

[Arcachon]

Stop cheating yourselves! - Wrong interpretation of population white paper and foreigners buying into Singapore

Let me share my thought from my little brain which I can only use a small % of it.

In 2006 my thought on property is very simple, they pour billion into the ground and at the end of the day the property should appreciate so I go and buy a small 2 Bedroom @ Southbank.

In 2011 after I learn what is Money (Money equal debt) and looking at how my 2 Bedroom @ Southbank have appreciate beyond my imagination, I get a 3 Bedroom PH.

White paper, Black paper I don't understand. What I know is, they tell you they are going to increase the population, double the MRT line (pour billion into the ground) etc. What else can you do, buy property, start a construction company, buy share, buy gold and silver..............

[teddybear]

Wow, that is real working the ground! No wonder you make so much!

On the other hand, all those economists, all those white papers, black papers, real-estate analysts, analysts all only can talk but can't make money....... Talk so much for what? I can understand those who talk so much with so much economic analysis is because they are paid to convince others. Those that talk so much with so much analysis for ??? when nobody wants to pay them a single CENT? Their analysis also questionable right?

Let me share my thought from my little brain which I can only use a small % of it.

In 2006 my thought on property is very simple, they pour billion into the ground and at the end of the day the property should appreciate so I go and buy a small 2 Bedroom @ Southbank.

In 2011 after I learn what is Money (Money equal debt) and looking at how my 2 Bedroom @ Southbank have appreciate beyond my imagination, I get a 3 Bedroom PH.

White paper, Black paper I don't understand. What I know is, they tell you they are going to increase the population, double the MRT line (pour billion into the ground) etc. What else can you do, buy property, start a construction company, buy share, buy gold and silver..............

[DKSG]

All these are just keyboard bashing.

People who type and type knows little about what is happening out there in the market.

Go visit Alexandra Central, go visit QBay.

Check out who is buying, why they buying.

The market is driven by people whom are not mentioned in this forum.

Anyway, Office Boy finds it pointless proving things here.

Just like how to try to prove Ah B was wrong since Oct 2011. No point, we just wait 12 months and see.

Population increase will not increase property prices ? That has to come from someone who hardly visit any showflats or talked to developers, agents, buyers, sellers.

DKSG

[kane]

A friend said it was like a fish market in dleedon. Any truth in that? The disappointed souls from alexandra central went to window shop at dleedon is it?

[chiaberry]

A friend said it was like a fish market in dleedon. Any truth in that? The disappointed souls from alexandra central went to window shop at dleedon is it?

Could be....agent SMS of 10 to 15% discounts.

[kane]

Could be....agent SMS of 10 to 15% discounts.

if true, i'd be interested to know how many units they moved last weekend. heh.

[DKSG]

if true, i'd be interested to know how many units they moved last weekend. heh.

2 weekends after the CMs, developers have proven one thing to themselves - there are ALOT ALOT of buyers out there with ALOT ALOT of cash !

I think D'Leedon sold a fair number of units. But I didnt go down (been there 2 times already!). So gotta wait for some kind soul to update us here.

DKSG

[eng81157]

Stop cheating yourselves! - Wrong interpretation of population white paper and foreigners buying into Singapore

First on population white paper, which may likely announce 7mil target in 2030.

Assuming population reaches 7mil in 2030, which is an increase of 1.7mil comparing to June 2012. When we analyse impact on housing, we need to exclude domestic workers which is about 4%, and some of the work-permit holders who stay in dormitory, there is no number for the latter, but i know the total % of work-permit holders as of total population is 13%, so let's say half of them stay in dormitory. So, we have 90% of the 1.7m needs housing, that is, 1.53m. Then, using an average household size of 3.5 (average of Singapore in 2011), this translates to the need of 437K units (public and private included), or 24K units per year, this includes both public and private.

In the past years, the government failed to build enough, there was therefore some pent-up demand pushing up prices in the past few years. But the next few years from 2013 to 2016 will see 197,559 units ready, that is, 49,389 units per year.

Now, u can compare 24K with 49K.

I therefore say, 7mil population target in 2030, is NOT a positive. How much pent-up demand remains to be pent-up even after the cruel CM7 is anyone's guess, but I take Khaw's words, that, this 197,559 units supply is HUGE, so I don’t see the relevance of just talking about the 7mil population target as if this number will give you some comfort. You have compare it with supply.

Next on foreigners.

I know some forumers like to tout how good Singapore, how foreigners like Singapore as if there is no other place to go, how Singapore is ranked at one of the top places and so on. OK, these are facts, we all like Singapore since we live here, just like NewYorkers will say many good things about NYC.

But, let’s look at the numbers, last year, foreigners who were not Singapore permanent residents (PRs) accounted for just 6.3 per cent of all private home purchases on the island - the lowest proportion since 2003 and a significant drop from the 17.6 per cent share in 2011, Knight Frank's analysis of URA Realis caveats data showed.

This is the result of 10% ABSD, now, what do you think the percentage will be with 15% ABSD?

Now, if you don’t like my post, just boycott my thread, and don’t read it, but, please don’t throw bad words in my thread. Don't make yourselves look uncivilized.

let me put to poof the above analysis.
fundamental flaw - you arrived at 49k housing unit per year between 2013-2016, is the government committed to build this amount of housing till 2030?!

why is the government building more? simple, to avoid repeating the mistake of having a housing crunch as what we are witnessing now.

Learn2statistics 101

[economist]

Looks like the SMS on D'Leedon is everywhere... I got a few...

[DKSG]

Looks like the SMS on D'Leedon is everywhere... I got a few...

Yes. Accordingly, developer wants to clear a certain percentage before reducing the discount. For a 1,700++ units development, I estimate developer would want to clear at least 1,000 units before reducing the discount.

This is seen everywhere in the market after CM5, when FEO gave deep discount for Waterfront Whatever during CNY, when sales reach 65%, discount keep dropping and dropping until the initial discounts are fully withdrawn.

For those who wants to buy for own stay and find D'Leedon suitable, I think now is one of the best times to buy. How do you gauge will CapLand give even more discount in future ? Check out the % of remaining units. My guess is anything lesser than 700 units, discount will start to roll back!

Good Luck!

DKSG

[economist]

History may not repeat itself. CM5 only keeps foreigners at bay, but CM7 hurts even Singaporeans with the ridiculous ABSD, except first-timers, so my guess is it will be different this time, developers maybe forced to keep bigger discount for longer time, and the downward pressure will spill over to new launches and then resales...

but anyway, let's see how market moves in 6 months time.

Yes. Accordingly, developer wants to clear a certain percentage before reducing the discount. For a 1,700++ units development, I estimate developer would want to clear at least 1,000 units before reducing the discount.

This is seen everywhere in the market after CM5, when FEO gave deep discount for Waterfront Whatever during CNY, when sales reach 65%, discount keep dropping and dropping until the initial discounts are fully withdrawn.

For those who wants to buy for own stay and find D'Leedon suitable, I think now is one of the best times to buy. How do you gauge will CapLand give even more discount in future ? Check out the % of remaining units. My guess is anything lesser than 700 units, discount will start to roll back!

Good Luck!

DKSG

[bernbaum]

You have already admited your view is simplified and really nothing, so how to argue? Want to argue, must have substance right? I mean, just like you said those forumers who keep touting 7m population are lame, your counter aint much better. Its like a pot calling the kettle black.

imo, no need to post so much, create so much new threads and try to paint a bearish picture. Then keep debating with the bulls. Waste time leh...better off spending your time enjoying life with friends or family or contributing to society (work or helping out in social welfare org). My advice, dun bother being a bear lah. Likewise, those who post bullish reports, let them post lah.....great `feel good' reading anyway for many ppty owners and investors. But in itself, its not going to cause prices to rise anymore than the bearish reports posted by you or some others like Seletar and basic.

So bulls should post while bears should go do charity work? you are very naughty Also his posts are valuable nonetheless even if simplified. How many you think those auntie uncles investor wannabees calculate things like this?

Also some of you keep citing Alexandra, but that is commercial property untouched by CM7 one of the last bastions for ppl with too much money to invest in. It isn't very comforting to compare apples with oranges.

[howgozit]

2 weekends after the CMs, developers have proven one thing to themselves - there are ALOT ALOT of buyers out there with ALOT ALOT of cash !

I think D'Leedon sold a fair number of units. But I didnt go down (been there 2 times already!). So gotta wait for some kind soul to update us here.

DKSG

A lot of people looking around lah.... a lot of buyers meh?

How did the developers prove that there are as you say "ALOT ALOT of buyers"?

[howgozit]

So bulls should post while bears should go do charity work? you are very naughty Also his posts are valuable nonetheless even if simplified. How many you think those auntie uncles investor wannabees calculate things like this?

Also some of you keep citing Alexandra, but that is commercial property untouched by CM7 one of the last bastions for ppl with too much money to invest in. It isn't very comforting to compare apples with oranges.

Well said.

Differing views are a good thing. Its healthy

[eng81157]

A lot of people looking around lah.... a lot of buyers meh?

How did the developers prove that there are as you say "ALOT ALOT of buyers"?

look no further than QBay and Alexandra Central......

[luzman]

look no further than QBay and Alexandra Central......

Alexandra central is not residential lay....dont mixed apples with orange and say all fruit eaters are there

[howgozit]

look no further than QBay and Alexandra Central......

A lot of buyers izit?

What is the profile of the buyers? First timers? Foreigners? Buying second home?

Very brave people.

Developers are shitting brakes and talking about steep discounts, but these people are actually jumping in..... hmmm

[ZeeWee]

I forgot the figures but a high percentage of the buyers for Qbay are buying their 2nd or more properties.. I try see if I can dig out the figure from my boss again anot

and if its discounts.. I think someone mentioned before already... developers raised the listed price high high then give massive discounts make people 'gian'. You think D'Leedon and QBay are making losses with the extras discounts they are dishing out?

To jumped in anot will depends if one does their homework right.. coming in now for Qbay is pretty correct with the 'extra' discount since the land price bought wasn't high to begin. Anyway if FEO manage to monopolise that stretch of land parcels available just like Waterfront series then Qbay owners can laugh all the way to the banks liao

A lot of buyers izit?

What is the profile of the buyers? First timers? Foreigners? Buying second home?

Very brave people.

Developers are shitting brakes and talking about steep discounts, but these people are actually jumping in..... hmmm

[Ricade]

Hello everyone.. I'm back to comment about our famous mr economist after a few days of holding back..

In short, I don't think he is a bearish investor, have hidden motives or trying to incite fear in a property forum (condosg leh; this forum is for property nut like myself and many of you..)

BUT, this mr economist hor.. He has a very high ego.. Lol and that is the one thing I buay tahan about him. Wah Lan simply because of ur "strongly worded thread title", which garnered 7000+ (actually now it's 9000+) views.. He thinks that sellers are desperate. I mean wtf la boy..

Then after posting a few thread replies.. He brazenly gives a "sincere" advice to the government on CM7.. Alamak.. What is ur credential boy, why you feel the need to be so brazenly outspoken when you may not have the full picture after all..

Don't get me wrong i have no ill feelings toward mr economist. He has brought so much color and valuable input into the forum.. I welcome you. But hor.. Sometimes the way he put things across and vindicate himself for the sake of satisfying his own ego is a little off putting.. Haha a wise man will do well to know when to speak his mind, and temper the delivery with enough poise.. I hope mr economist you will do well to note

Welcome to the forum - we can all share our knowledge and learn a lot from each other here.. So please let's stop trying to make a parade of our views and intellect in this forum ok?

Have a good day ahead everyone - TGIF!!

[heehee]

Very often, I find humble writing by meek usernames to be by those with strong credentials but didn't to create hoo ha & attractions.
But when someone using big or professional title & talk big projecting their own strong confidence & trying to convince other people to buy their views, I just take their words with a very big pinch of salts. Quality views doesn't need persuading & big words & portraying big professional title.

Hello everyone.. I'm back to comment about our famous mr economist after a few days of holding back..

In short, I don't think he is a bearish investor, have hidden motives or trying to incite fear in a property forum (condosg leh; this forum is for property nut like myself and many of you..)

BUT, this mr economist hor.. He has a very high ego.. Lol and that is the one thing I buay tahan about him. Wah Lan simply because of ur "strongly worded thread title", which garnered 7000+ (actually now it's 9000+) views.. He thinks that sellers are desperate. I mean wtf la boy..

Then after posting a few thread replies.. He brazenly gives a "sincere" advice to the government on CM7.. Alamak.. What is ur credential boy, why you feel the need to be so brazenly outspoken when you may not have the full picture after all..

Don't get me wrong i have no ill feelings toward mr economist. He has brought so much color and valuable input into the forum.. I welcome you. But hor.. Sometimes the way he put things across and vindicate himself for the sake of satisfying his own ego is a little off putting.. Haha a wise man will do well to know when to speak his mind, and temper the delivery with enough poise.. I hope mr economist you will do well to note

Welcome to the forum - we can all share our knowledge and learn a lot from each other here.. So please let's stop trying to make a parade of our views and intellect in this forum ok?

Have a good day ahead everyone - TGIF!!