Reasons for ppty market to come down

[Lemonlaw]

1. Excess supply; more than 100,000 units by end is 2014
2. Market uncertainty;us, Europe,china,Japan, Singapore
3. More launches in coming months
4. CM7
5. Sg ecomomy not doing very well either
6. Interests rates raising?
7. Strict FT policy

Anyone have more reasons for the property prices to come down?
We have heard so many reasons why ppty prices should go up, kinda sick of hearing those, every time go showflat, agents will tell me the same story.

I start this thread to hear more reasons for it to come down not go up.

Thanks.

[Lemonlaw]

Most people with vested interests will not want to see property prices to drop sharply as they worry valuation drop too much and banks will request a top up in difference.

But, think about this...this is reality....anything that goes up will come down eventually..this is market cycle.

You like it or not, this is the facts. U remember those people who bought condo and hdb in 1997. U should go ask them, how much they have MAKE today with today's valuation.

Most will tell u, with interests, they still LOSE $$$.

So please wake up.

[Arcachon]

Do you know what is Money?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lsmbWBpnCNk

[Lemonlaw]

Do you know what is Money?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lsmbWBpnCNk

So what is your point?

[Arcachon]

Money $$$$$$ equal debt.

US print 85 Billion $$$$$$$$$ every month.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesdor...-from-freedom/

What happen to your money $$$$$$$ in the Bank?

[Lemonlaw]

Are u trying to talk about $$$ becomes smaller and need to hedge against deprecation of dollar?

[leesg123]

Most people with vested interests will not want to see property prices to drop sharply as they worry valuation drop too much and banks will request a top up in difference.

But, think about this...this is reality....anything that goes up will come down eventually..this is market cycle.

You like it or not, this is the facts. U remember those people who bought condo and hdb in 1997. U should go ask them, how much they have MAKE today with today's valuation.

Most will tell u, with interests, they still LOSE $$$.

So please wake up.

On a SIMILAR note, people who MTB have vested interest to talk down the market.

[Doom]

The PAP gets a thumping in by-election! Shows people are unhappy with cost of living, with high immigrants, with high housing prices. Time for more CM or they will lose more seats! So prices will fall, fall, fall.

1. Excess supply; more than 100,000 units by end is 2014
2. Market uncertainty;us, Europe,china,Japan, Singapore
3. More launches in coming months
4. CM7
5. Sg ecomomy not doing very well either
6. Interests rates raising?
7. Strict FT policy

Anyone have more reasons for the property prices to come down?
We have heard so many reasons why ppty prices should go up, kinda sick of hearing those, every time go showflat, agents will tell me the same story.

I start this thread to hear more reasons for it to come down not go up.



Thanks.

[triple70]

In Sg context where there is a undersupply, in a uncertain economy, prices will remain flat.
Looking at the last 2 cycles, prices come down only when ppl can't keep up with installments due to lost of jobs or interest rates going up. This got nothing to do with the property market itself.

A strong case of property prices holding stable is the hedge against inflation.
And BCA/URA rules are ever tightening. Construction costs are climbing non stop.

We don't have to agree with the market, and the market dun have to agree with us. It doesn't matter who is right or wrong. Let's just stay happy riding the ups and downs.

[sh]

You think majority of Singaporeans want property prices to fall? Most are property owners. It's the minority that is making all the noise... Garment will be bigger trouble if prices fall.

[Doom]

How come minority making noise and yet govt loses election by a much wider margin than expected? What happened? Okay, okay, housing is not the only thing. But it's one of the main things.

You think majority of Singaporeans want property prices to fall? Most are property owners. It's the minority that is making all the noise... Garment will be bigger trouble if prices fall.

[teddybear]

Because of the drastic property cooling measures!!!
The >90% citizen property owners are showing hands with their anger!

How come minority making noise and yet govt loses election by a much wider margin than expected? What happened? Okay, okay, housing is not the only thing. But it's one of the main things.

Originally Posted by sh
You think majority of Singaporeans want property prices to fall? Most are property owners. It's the minority that is making all the noise... Garment will be bigger trouble if prices fall.

[lajia]

So surprise to see a lot of newbies starting this forum with a very bearish note...plenty of reasons already input by famous B in his MTB thread, actually u got time u should read that, don't need to start a new one with same intention, d...
Anyway, I'm free now like u, I can start with my opinions. Good to have ppl like u to keep those optimistic guy in check...but, dont MTB again. Like what some of the bros here say, visit the showrooms, that's the best way to gauge the current sentiment. Sit behind comp waiting and talking about market don will not help...
1) where got over supply?? U think that's what garmen want? Do your own calculation or if not, let your best friend google find some numbers for u.
2) market uncertainty? What? It has started since Lehman bro time and spread across to Europe and so on...it hasn't stop yet. But, things are improving each day and that's why we are seeing sort of bull run, not sure if it is but I assume it is...
3) more launches why, because of shortage ma, because the gate for quality new CZ and PR will again cont to be opened ma...
4) CM7 good, to moderate the price increase and to collect some money and importantly, let those first timer and MTB ppl buy.
5) sg economy not doing well for the past 1 yr or so if u notice. But, importantly, is the employment rate, enough said. With higher population, u will be able to minimize the external impact or so called, cushion external negative forces.
6) the situation now is very diff from the past. Interest will only raise when the economy turns good. If that's the case then it should be fine as good economy also means good employment fig...austerity against spending, this is the difference...with money printing on going, how to have high interest rate? They want u to spend, and only when u spend, u create jobs and in return, reduce your debts. See the diff? Last time they will ask u to save and save and thus only way to attract u to save more is to have higher interest rate...see the diff? Anyway, ths is from layman prospective and I'm a layman.....
7) strict FT policy is very straight forward la, to have quality...not quantity. But that doesn't mean that they will shut the gate with small opening.m
Just my two cents....

1. Excess supply; more than 100,000 units by end is 2014
2. Market uncertainty;us, Europe,china,Japan, Singapore
3. More launches in coming months
4. CM7
5. Sg ecomomy not doing very well either
6. Interests rates raising?
7. Strict FT policy

Anyone have more reasons for the property prices to come down?
We have heard so many reasons why ppty prices should go up, kinda sick of hearing those, every time go showflat, agents will tell me the same story.

I start this thread to hear more reasons for it to come down not go up.

Thanks.

[Kelonguni]

Because of the drastic property cooling measures!!!
The >90% citizen property owners are showing hands with their anger!



Originally Posted by sh
You think majority of Singaporeans want property prices to fall? Most are property owners. It's the minority that is making all the noise... Garment will be bigger trouble if prices fall.

I agree with you in thinking that the Govt misread the situation. The eligibility of first time buyers is delayed until later in the year, plus so many cooling measures to dampen the HDB upgraders. Although this is a silent group and not as vocal as the MTB group, their votes still count, perhaps even more so as we are talking about the main mass of voters.

[Leeds]

The post result of the by-election of Ponggol East did suggest certain things were not "done right' since GE 2011. Lets' us just focus on the rising prices of property.

In trying not to crash the market, the various CMs since GE 2011 were mild ones with the believe that the demand would be met with the large supply few years down the road. The government unestimated the magnitude of investment demand. The result is that prices remain unaffordable even for first timers.

Does the Jan 2013 CM upset more people like upgraders? Looking at it deeper, the answer is 'no'. In the first place, upgraders are finding prices unaffordable to begin with. So the Jan CM (whether temporary or permanent) should be seen as an opportunity for price to soften which means more affordable prices.

To many investors, the Jan CM means game over for a lot of them. It only prevent them from buying more but the CM does not 'affect' them financially. These investors could invest in other instrunments or elsewhere.

The government does appear to make the mistake of not having more effective CM earlier that could have a greater impact on softening prices.

[RCT]

You think majority of Singaporeans want property prices to fall? Most are property owners. It's the minority that is making all the noise... Garment will be bigger trouble if prices fall.

How many Singaporean have more than 2 property.. You must understand if you only own 1 property the movement of price does affect you at all..

[Kelonguni]

The post result of the by-election of Ponggol East did suggest certain things were not "done right' since GE 2011. Lets' us just focus on the rising prices of property.

In trying not to crash the market, the various CMs since GE 2011 were mild ones with the believe that the demand would be met with the large supply few years down the road. The government unestimated the magnitude of investment demand. The result is that prices remain unaffordable even for first timers.

Does the Jan 2013 CM upset more people like upgraders? Looking at it deeper, the answer is 'no'. In the first place, upgraders are finding prices unaffordable to begin with. So the Jan CM (whether temporary or permanent) should be seen as an opportunity for price to soften which means more affordable prices.

To many investors, the Jan CM means game over for a lot of them. It only prevent them from buying more but the CM does not 'affect' them financially. These investors could invest in other instrunments or elsewhere.

The government does appear to make the mistake of not having more effective CM earlier that could have a greater impact on softening prices.

I think you are right in saying that the measures were too muted in the beginning. But given the profile of residents in Punggol East, I speculate that the difficulty in upgrading or investing in private properties could have an impact, other than the hefty costs involved.

Moreover, first timers were promised that they were able to buy new flats in 2011 GE, but Mr Khaw seems to be holding that back to sometime in 2013. In the end, both groups desires were not met. It is a bad time to hold elections.

Another potential area to look into is the well meaning intention of the additional baby bonuses. The exact cut-off date (sometime in August) and the cut-off income for additional childcare subsidies are areas which might benefit some and turns off others.

WP also very clever in hinting that all these were only possible because of credible opposition, and if there was a stronger presence, more will be given.

[RCT]

I think you are right in saying that the measures were too muted in the beginning. But given the profile of residents in Punggol East, I speculate that the difficulty in upgrading or investing in private properties could have an impact, other than the hefty costs involved.

Moreover, first timers were promised that they were able to buy new flats in 2011 GE, but Mr Khaw seems to be holding that back to sometime in 2013. In the end, both groups desires were not met. It is a bad time to hold elections.

Another potential area to look into is the well meaning intention of the additional baby bonuses. The exact cut-off date (sometime in August) and the cut-off income for additional childcare subsidies are areas which might benefit some and turns off others.

WP also very clever in hinting that all these were only possible because of credible opposition, and if there was a stronger presence, more will be given.

The problem is that PAP should come up with those policy too late and is paying the price for ignoring people will.. 得民心得天下

Now if PAP come out with good policy, it is because we have stronger opp.. so more opp means better policy for the people

Now if PAP come out with lousy policy, it means we need even stronger opp.. so we need more opp...

hahaha.. For PAP it is a die die situation.. for WP it is a win win situation..

[RCT]

In Sg context where there is a undersupply, in a uncertain economy, prices will remain flat.
Looking at the last 2 cycles, prices come down only when ppl can't keep up with installments due to lost of jobs or interest rates going up. This got nothing to do with the property market itself.

A strong case of property prices holding stable is the hedge against inflation.
And BCA/URA rules are ever tightening. Construction costs are climbing non stop.

We don't have to agree with the market, and the market dun have to agree with us. It doesn't matter who is right or wrong. Let's just stay happy riding the ups and downs.

Sounds like USA.. Can't keep up with installment and kena foreclosure..

[lajia]

Saying is always easy.....only when u take reference to history then u realize if u have done enough, done wrong or whatever. What is important is about the future.
But, dont get it totally wrong. CM is not to make property price cheap and wait for u and me to go buy. CM is to prevent over heating of the property market. Whether the condo price remain affordable for everyone is not the objective. If you think the price is high, then don't buy. Garmen will not make a BMW as cheap as a Vios for u to buy just because of your own agenda...
So stop saying the price is high. If high don't buy. This market is not for the mass. Just like I cannot afford to buy BMW then I will get myself a Swift or whatever. See, complaining about the garmen actions and high price doesn't get u anywhere if u know the objectives of the garmen.
Just my opinions...

The post result of the by-election of Ponggol East did suggest certain things were not "done right' since GE 2011. Lets' us just focus on the rising prices of property.

In trying not to crash the market, the various CMs since GE 2011 were mild ones with the believe that the demand would be met with the large supply few years down the road. The government unestimated the magnitude of investment demand. The result is that prices remain unaffordable even for first timers.

Does the Jan 2013 CM upset more people like upgraders? Looking at it deeper, the answer is 'no'. In the first place, upgraders are finding prices unaffordable to begin with. So the Jan CM (whether temporary or permanent) should be seen as an opportunity for price to soften which means more affordable prices.

To many investors, the Jan CM means game over for a lot of them. It only prevent them from buying more but the CM does not 'affect' them financially. These investors could invest in other instrunments or elsewhere.

The government does appear to make the mistake of not having more effective CM earlier that could have a greater impact on softening prices.

[Rysk]

1. Excess supply; more than 100,000 units by end is 2014
2. Market uncertainty;us, Europe,china,Japan, Singapore
3. More launches in coming months
4. CM7
5. Sg ecomomy not doing very well either
6. Interests rates raising?
7. Strict FT policy

Anyone have more reasons for the property prices to come down?
We have heard so many reasons why ppty prices should go up, kinda sick of hearing those, every time go showflat, agents will tell me the same story.

I start this thread to hear more reasons for it to come down not go up.

Thanks.

These "reasons"... "reasons" from sghouse in 2008 Luxus Hills 1.6-mio...... "reasons" till condosg in 2011 Luxus Hills 2.5-mio.. "reasons" till now Luxus Hills 3-mio... still "reasons"

http://www.sg-house.com/classifieds/...-property.html
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=12285

[Shanhz]

The PAP gets a thumping in by-election! Shows people are unhappy with cost of living, with high immigrants, with high housing prices. Time for more CM or they will lose more seats! So prices will fall, fall, fall.

not quite true. blindly CM-ing and CM-ing will not serve any purpose. indeed the supply is in place and time is needed for things to catch up. i have faith in the policies for housing, and by 2016 GE, the effort will be clear. kenobi has his way of doing things and it works.

i am more concerned about healthcare and transport. these things have not been worked on, unlike housing. uncle lui still want to charge higher transport fare for poorer service. i seriously wonder where he left his brain, in the navy? if by next election he doesn't show result, he will be replaced by kenobi

[Shanhz]

The problem is that PAP should come up with those policy too late and is paying the price for ignoring people will.. 得民心得天下

Now if PAP come out with good policy, it is because we have stronger opp.. so more opp means better policy for the people

Now if PAP come out with lousy policy, it means we need even stronger opp.. so we need more opp...

hahaha.. For PAP it is a die die situation.. for WP it is a win win situation..

tat's what i think too, and it worries me. indeed, do and you are f-ked. don't do, you are also f-ked. being stuck between a wall and a rock. PAP has got alot to worry about.

[Leeds]

Saying is always easy.....only when u take reference to history then u realize if u have done enough, done wrong or whatever. What is important is about the future.
But, dont get it totally wrong. CM is not to make property price cheap and wait for u and me to go buy. CM is to prevent over heating of the property market. Whether the condo price remain affordable for everyone is not the objective. If you think the price is high, then don't buy. Garmen will not make a BMW as cheap as a Vios for u to buy just because of your own agenda... o
So stop saying the price is high. If high don't buy. This market is not for the mass. Just like I cannot afford to buy BMW then I will get myself a Swift or whatever. See, complaining about the garmen actions and high price doesn't get u anywhere if u know the objectives of the garmen.
Just my opinions...

A society will be in trouble if there exist two different markets which will lead to social divide.

This is rational exchange so please do not make personal assumption of the existance of personal agenda.

[leesg123]

Saying is always easy.....only when u take reference to history then u realize if u have done enough, done wrong or whatever. What is important is about the future.
But, dont get it totally wrong. CM is not to make property price cheap and wait for u and me to go buy. CM is to prevent over heating of the property market. Whether the condo price remain affordable for everyone is not the objective. If you think the price is high, then don't buy. Garmen will not make a BMW as cheap as a Vios for u to buy just because of your own agenda...
So stop saying the price is high. If high don't buy. This market is not for the mass. Just like I cannot afford to buy BMW then I will get myself a Swift or whatever. See, complaining about the garmen actions and high price doesn't get u anywhere if u know the objectives of the garmen.
Just my opinions...

Sadly most of new gen expect bmw to be as cheap as vios, beat os free for them because they serve NS, so is their entitlement.

They expect a top notch childcare to be as cheap as possible without asking themseleves if they themseleves can also offer good service to employers at as cheap a salary as possible....

[lajia]

Think u still staying in a communistic environment or actually u are hoping to live in one of those in the world, not sure if it still exists...
Open your eyes, I'm not assuming. It's a reality.

A society like ours will always be divided. But I won't blame or be jealous of ppl in the higher income class. Most of us belong to the middle income so called sandwiched class. So is this already divided? If u want to climb higher, work harder la. Why try to pull down the other class and make it equal. Where got equality. Face it la, after so many years living in ths world u mean u don't know tat some are born with silver spoons and some have to work their way up?? This is not assumption.

work harder and stop thinking that everybody owe u something...anyway, enough said.

A society will be in trouble if there exist two different markets which will lead to social divide.

This is rational exchange so please do not make personal assumption of the existance of personal agenda.

[ichigo55]

That's the biggest problem with this new gen of people ... If they cannot make they do not want others to have it ... The presence of liquidity and influx of foreigners does not help ... As they see that many benefitted from such a system while they don't ... Foreigners who are already well to do are attracted to our successful system ... Hence the sudden influx of such riches, though small number in any country except Singapore, pushes them out further...
Such huge gap are often very dangerous if left untamed

Think u still staying in a communistic environment or actually u are hoping to live in one of those in the world, not sure if it still exists...
Open your eyes, I'm not assuming. It's a reality.

A society like ours will always be divided. But I won't blame or be jealous of ppl in the higher income class. Most of us belong to the middle income so called sandwiched class. So is this already divided? If u want to climb higher, work harder la. Why try to pull down the other class and make it equal. Where got equality. Face it la, after so many years living in ths world u mean u don't know tat some are born with silver spoons and some have to work their way up?? This is not assumption.anyway, enough said.

[indomie]

Think u still staying in a communistic environment or actually u are hoping to live in one of those in the world, not sure if it still exists...
Open your eyes, I'm not assuming. It's a reality.

A society like ours will always be divided. But I won't blame or be jealous of ppl in the higher income class. Most of us belong to the middle income so called sandwiched class. So is this already divided? If u want to climb higher, work harder la. Why try to pull down the other class and make it equal. Where got equality. Face it la, after so many years living in ths world u mean u don't know tat some are born with silver spoons and some have to work their way up?? This is not assumption.

work harder and stop thinking that everybody owe u something...anyway, enough said.

Lajia my man..... U are on fire

[Leeds]

Think u still staying in a communistic environment or actually u are hoping to live in one of those in the world, not sure if it still exists...
Open your eyes, I'm not assuming. It's a reality.

A society like ours will always be divided. But I won't blame or be jealous of ppl in the higher income class. Most of us belong to the middle income so called sandwiched class. So is this already divided? If u want to climb higher, work harder la. Why try to pull down the other class and make it equal. Where got equality. Face it la, after so many years living in ths world u mean u don't know tat some are born with silver spoons and some have to work their way up?? This is not assumption. work harder and stop thinking that everybody owe u something...anyway, enough said.

Lajia my man..... U are on fire

Managing social divide and income disparity are essential aspects of a capitalism system of any governments. How well this 'division' is managed determine the sustainability of the system.

Since the advance of the internet, the PAP government saw the emerging of wider income disparity and sought ways to manage this division through social, economic and monetary policies. CM is but just one of the tool to manage this process.

When we talk about social divide, we has to look at the environment at a macro economic level.

indomie, please do not fire Lajia so fast. Give him a chance to learn economics.

[lajia]

hehehe... this is funny...

indomie, please do not fire Lajia so fast. Give him a chance to learn economics.