The same old chart again.
1. Can you please tell the readers here why you only start your chart from Q1 97 and not the entire ppi chart from 1986 onwards?
Are you trying to hide something?
Let me enlighten readers here what he is trying to hide. You can read it all here.
http://www.singaporepropertycycle.co...-1986-to-1998/
The entire cycle from trough to peak to trough lasted from Q2 1986 to Q4 1998.
The run up in landed prices took 10 years from Q2 1986 to Q2 1996. The percentage change was 475% from trough to peak for the landed index.
If you believe what he is saying that history will repeat itself, then we have a long way to go before the landed crash will happen.
Why? Read it here
http://www.singaporepropertycycle.co...09-to-Present/
We are only about three years into our current cycle which started in Q2 2009 and the landed index has only gone up 86% from the last trough. This is way below the 475% increase during the 86 run.
If he is implying that history will repeat itself, then the climb in landed index prices is only in its infancy.
2. He also keeps saying that things have not changed since the crash in 1998/99.
Well, the difference between 98/99 was that the LTVs for housing loans did not go to as low of 20%/40% (for 3rd housing loan onwards) and they did not have SSDs back then as well. With such measures in place, what do you think the risk profile of borrowers in the 1980s will be like compared to present day?
I leave it to the readers here to draw their own conclusion. As long as he keeps posting that chart, it just means that he is not showing you the whole picture.