Landed Property - Going Forward (2013)

[Ringo33]

The same old chart again.

1. Can you please tell the readers here why you only start your chart from Q1 97 and not the entire ppi chart from 1986 onwards?

Are you trying to hide something?

Let me enlighten readers here what he is trying to hide. You can read it all here.

http://www.singaporepropertycycle.co...-1986-to-1998/

The entire cycle from trough to peak to trough lasted from Q2 1986 to Q4 1998.



The run up in landed prices took 10 years from Q2 1986 to Q2 1996. The percentage change was 475% from trough to peak for the landed index.

If you believe what he is saying that history will repeat itself, then we have a long way to go before the landed crash will happen.

Why? Read it here

http://www.singaporepropertycycle.co...09-to-Present/


We are only about three years into our current cycle which started in Q2 2009 and the landed index has only gone up 86% from the last trough. This is way below the 475% increase during the 86 run.

If he is implying that history will repeat itself, then the climb in landed index prices is only in its infancy.

2. He also keeps saying that things have not changed since the crash in 1998/99.

Well, the difference between 98/99 was that the LTVs for housing loans did not go to as low of 20%/40% (for 3rd housing loan onwards) and they did not have SSDs back then as well. With such measures in place, what do you think the risk profile of borrowers in the 1980s will be like compared to present day?

I leave it to the readers here to draw their own conclusion. As long as he keeps posting that chart, it just means that he is not showing you the whole picture.

this chart is provided by URA, not created by me. So please direct your question to KBW if you are not happy.

And please spare us with your nonsensical theory about economic theory and property cycles.

A little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

[proper-t]

this chart is provided by URA, not created by me. So please direct your question to KBW if you are not happy.

And please spare us with your nonsensical theory about economic theory and property cycles.

A little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

Someone once made this statement below

One will first need to study our history in order to foresee what will happen in future

So according to your chart and URA statistics, which part of the cycle do you think landed prices are at now according to historical trends and when do you think it will crash since you are such a great advocate of studying history to forsee the future?

[lajia]

hahaha...as i said, you are very persistent. persistently silly...since u use the word stupid and i dont think u are worth any respect. the chart besides color and shapes, all show consistently similar up and down trend over cycles...isn't this what i mentioned that if correction comes, it will be widespread and not only for any particular segment?
did the chart shows u who still have income when recession comes? did u go check whether bankruptcy cases are higher for landed owners when recession comes??

stupid one is you yourselves. the chart is from URA, correct, but you are assuming and imagining till you keep telling yourselves that you are rite even so many ppl tell u to stop your nonsense.

enough said...

the chart is only useful for people who looks into the details, it will be meaningless for those who just look at its shapes and colors.


In buying property, there is always the rule of thumb of not using more than 30-40% of your salary to service your mortgage loan and one must always set aside enough saving and CPF to continue paying for the mortgage for at least 18 months in case one goes out of job.

What I highlighted above will go into one of the top 5 BS that I have come across in this forum. Perhaps some over leveraged landed owner here are so desperate that they need to say something stupid to comfort themselves.

[lajia]

bro, no need to discuss anymore because it is no longer constructive. his objective is quite clear and silly. no point la...

let me make this statement, as long as condo price keep stable and moving up slowly, so will be the landed pricing. there is always a baseline for each category and it form on top of one another. HDB, Exce Condo, Condo, Landed...

Someone once made this statement below



So according to your chart and URA statistics, which part of the cycle do you think landed prices are at now according to historical trends and when do you think it will crash since you are such a great advocate of studying history to forsee the future?

[Ringo33]

hahaha...as i said, you are very persistent. persistently silly...since u use the word stupid and i dont think u are worth any respect. the chart besides color and shapes, all show consistently similar up and down trend over cycles...isn't this what i mentioned that if correction comes, it will be widespread and not only for any particular segment?
did the chart shows u who still have income when recession comes? did u go check whether bankruptcy cases are higher for landed owners when recession comes??

stupid one is you yourselves. the chart is from URA, correct, but you are assuming and imagining till you keep telling yourselves that you are rite even so many ppl tell u to stop your nonsense.

enough said...

this post is 100% rubbish..enuf said...

[proper-t]

bro, no need to discuss anymore because it is no longer constructive. his objective is quite clear and silly. no point la...

let me make this statement, as long as condo price keep stable and moving up slowly, so will be the landed pricing. there is always a baseline for each category and it form on top of one another. HDB, Exce Condo, Condo, Landed...

Its ok lah. The more he post, the more that readers here will be aware of his motives and type of character. Already he has zero credibility. The way he stumbles and trip over his own statements will just provide more entertainment to the readers here.

[princess_morbucks]

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/prope...anded-homes-in

Aug 6, 2013

The number of permanent residents (PRs) granted approval to buy landed homes in mainland Singapore has dropped significantly on the back of government efforts to set aside more of these types of properties for Singaporeans, media reports said.

The government further tightened the eligibility criteria for PRs in 2011 to ensure that Singapore citizens receive priority for such homes.

According to the Singapore Land Authority (SLA), the number of approvals granted to PRs looking to purchase landed homes fell from 145 in 2010 to 117 in 2011 and to just 31 last year.

In fact, only six applications were approved during the first half of 2013.

Back in October 2011, Law Minister K Shanmugam revealed that the number of approvals given to PRs buying landed homes would decline by over 50 percent to not more than 50 approvals each year.

[proper-t]

Not surprising given the increase in new citizens and tightening of PRs

Singapore gets 20,000 new citizens

The Straits Times February 27, 2013

Singapore granted its highest number of citizenships last year in more than a decade, even as it has tightened its intake of permanent residents (PRs) in recent years.


In all, 20,693 people became Singaporeans last year, Prime Minister's Office Minister Grace Fu revealed yesterday in Parliament.

This is higher than the previous year's 15,777 and follows an up-trend in the number of new citizens.

Between 1987 and 2006, about 8,200 people were granted citizenship papers a year. From 2007 to 2011, that number grew to 18,500 a year, according to statistics previously released by the National Population and Talent Division (NPTD).

An NPTD spokesman told The Straits Times yesterday that the number of citizenships granted each year fluctuates depending on factors such as the number and quality of applicants.

Last year's successful applications were within the 15,000 to 25,000 range it expects to grant yearly, she said.

[Ringo33]

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/prope...anded-homes-in

Aug 6, 2013

The number of permanent residents (PRs) granted approval to buy landed homes in mainland Singapore has dropped significantly on the back of government efforts to set aside more of these types of properties for Singaporeans, media reports said.

The government further tightened the eligibility criteria for PRs in 2011 to ensure that Singapore citizens receive priority for such homes.

According to the Singapore Land Authority (SLA), the number of approvals granted to PRs looking to purchase landed homes fell from 145 in 2010 to 117 in 2011 and to just 31 last year.

In fact, only six applications were approved during the first half of 2013.

Back in October 2011, Law Minister K Shanmugam revealed that the number of approvals given to PRs buying landed homes would decline by over 50 percent to not more than 50 approvals each year.

The only way forward is DOWN DOWN DOWN.

[proper-t]

The only way forward is DOWN DOWN DOWN.

According to the Singapore Land Authority (SLA), the number of approvals granted to PRs looking to purchase landed homes fell from 145 in 2010 to 117 in 2011 and to just 31 last year.

PR approvals have been dropping since 2010, can you tell readers here since you have your famous chart how the landed segment fared since 2010 despite the no. of PR approvals dropping since 2010?

PR approvals was only 31 last year and fell to 6 as of first half of this yr.

Can you tell readers here what percentage of the total stock of landed is 31?

Assuming another 6 are granted for 2nd half of this year which means that there will be only be 19 less PRs being granted approval compared to last year,

What percentage is 19 over the total stock of landed?

Can you explain how 19 less PR approvals translates to your 'DOWN DOWN DOWN' statement above when the number of new citizens increased by around 5000 last year?

[lajia]

it is very clear that singaporean value the landed property more and more...if given a choice, for own stay, many, i would not say all, would like to stay in landed, be it terrace, semi-d or cluster, etc. buying a 4 bedder EC now also cost u over a million, so why not much have bigger liveable space with slightly more for a terrace or cluster...

just my opinion.

[princess_morbucks]

it is very clear that singaporean value the landed property more and more...if given a choice, for own stay, many, i would not say all, would like to stay in landed, be it terrace, semi-d or cluster, etc. buying a 4 bedder EC now also cost u over a million, so why not much have bigger liveable space with slightly more for a terrace or cluster...

just my opinion.

Actually I belong to the minority.
I would prefer to stay in the air at the top of the world than landed.
The reason I stay in landed is because it is sought after.
So I am staying where my head tells me to.

If landed and non landed are equal in value, I will choose non landed.

[chiaberry]

The only way forward is DOWN DOWN DOWN.

It's possibly happening. My friend said that 2 landed detached houses in her neighbourhood have been on the market for a while and no takers so far. One is asking a high-ish price but the other one is asking quite a reasonable price (IMO).

[Ringo33]

It's possibly happening. My friend said that 2 landed detached houses in her neighbourhood have been on the market for a while and no takers so far. One is asking a high-ish price but the other one is asking quite a reasonable price (IMO).

I was told, no buyer is supposed to be a good thing.

Originally Posted by proper-t
In a down cycle, it is always better to have low transaction volume because there will be less comparables for people to whack down your price.

[proper-t]

Providing weekend entertainment again?

Didn't a certain forumer run away the last time he brought up this topic? Better run now whilst you still have the chance.

Haha, run back to your silly chart when you have nothing to answer. You have just shown that you don't even understand your own question. Therein lies the difference between a pratictioner and someone who just bangs on keyboard all day.

You question to me, I quote is :


Is sales high or low transaction volume good thing in property?

and not what is the cause of a down or upward swing in the cycle.

Its not my fault if you cannot articulate your questions properly.


If you are holding onto a property in a down cycle, would it be better if someone came to you with a list of comparables done in your area indicating super low prices and persuading you to sell at that price OR have someone with no comparables at all come knocking at your door.

I am done with this thread. Good luck to your economic fairytale

[teddybear]

Singaporean value the landed property more?
My friends are all shifting from landed to condos, so they are valuing condos more than landed right?

it is very clear that singaporean value the landed property more and more...if given a choice, for own stay, many, i would not say all, would like to stay in landed, be it terrace, semi-d or cluster, etc. buying a 4 bedder EC now also cost u over a million, so why not much have bigger liveable space with slightly more for a terrace or cluster...

just my opinion.

[proper-t]

It's possibly happening. My friend said that 2 landed detached houses in her neighbourhood have been on the market for a while and no takers so far. One is asking a high-ish price but the other one is asking quite a reasonable price (IMO).

Some latest transactions:

Date: 17 Jul 2013, D10, 35 Jalan Sampurna, Detached,Freehold,7,782sf, $1,787psf, $13,900,000

Date: 16 Jul 2013, D15, 12 Seraya Lane, Detached, Freehold, 13,627sf, $1,247psf, $17,000,000

Date: 12 Jul 2013, D27, 275 Wak Hassan Drive, Detached, 99 Yrs FROM 2011, 4,532sf, $1,412psf, $6,400,000

[hutsutau]

Singaporean value the landed property more?
My friends are all shifting from landed to condos, so they are valuing condos more than landed right?

they are making the move because they can realise the profit if they cash out now

[proper-t]

The sentence in bold says it all....

Actually I belong to the minority.
I would prefer to stay in the air at the top of the world than landed.
The reason I stay in landed is because it is sought after.
So I am staying where my head tells me to.

If landed and non landed are equal in value, I will choose non landed.

[Ringo33]

they are making the move because they can realise the profit if they cash out now

Like I said before, the experienced investors are already exiting the market now, thats why you see that detached houses and semi-d transaction are at all time low and prices are moving south. Its only the small time buyers who are still busy buying compact size terrace houses without know they are buying into the tail end of the property cycle.

When interest rate goes up, hell gate with open.

[proper-t]

Like I said before, the experienced investors are already exiting the market now, thats why you see that detached houses and semi-d transaction are at all time low and prices are moving south. Its only the small time buyers who are still busy buying compact size terrace houses without know they are buying into the tail end of the property cycle.

When interest rate goes up, hell gate with open.

Prices moving south ? Small time buyers ony?


7 JUL 2013, 35 JALAN SAMPURNA, DETACHED, RESALE, 7,782sf, $1,787psf $13,900,000


30 MAY 2012, 43 JALAN SAMPURNA,DETACHED, RESALE, 10,086sf, $1,636psf, $16,500,000



12 JUL 2013. 275 WAK HASSAN DRIVE, DETACHED, RESALE, 4,532sf $1,412psf $6,400,000

3 MAY 2013, 263 WAK HASSAN DRIVE, DETACHED, RESALE, 5,425sf $1,324psf $7,180,000



16 JUL 2013, 12 SERAYA LANE, DETACHED, RESALE, 13,627sf $1,247psf $17,000,000

1 MAR 2007 ,9 SERAYA LANE, DETACHED, RESALE, 11,905sf, $588psf $7,000,000

[Ringo33]

Never let the blind lead the way

[proper-t]

Fun times again....

Fall back on the chart when he has nothing substantive to post.

About the chart, can you enlighten readers about your quoted post below on projected market sentiment for next two years

I voted flat, but only for condo only. I see landed property prices going down by at least 10%.

Since you swear by your fav ppi chart, can you explain your statement above since in your chart, it clearly shows that whenever any segment goes down for two years, all other segments follows.

Have you lost faith in your chart ? Why do you keep posting it when you don't even subscribe to the historical pattern in your statement above?

[Ringo33]

In terms of supply of freehold landed - very little fresh supply coming on-stream in the forseeable near or long term.

In terms of demand - no. of singapore citizens expected to increase from 3.2m to 3.6/3.6m by 2030.

With govt internding to increase intake of new citizens by 25K pa from now until 2030, what do you think will be the first priority of these new citizens once they make SG their home?

No need to be a rocket scientist to figure this one out

yar right!!

[Ringo33]

Like I said, you still don't get it. Its all about the long term. These new citizens will become old citizens in due course and have children who will be citizens by birth right, then what happens?

Yes, its about the people and the voters who count. Do you really think the policy makers are going to worry about some tiny squeak on the landed segment when they are being bombarded by loudspeakers daily on public housing and transport issues? Its all about what they think are key voter issues and contrary to what you believe, its not about some poor SG citizen who is being 'robbed' of his perceived rightful entitlement to a landed property in SG.

You are still young (33/34 going by yr nick?). Your efforts to demonise the landed segment already border on the extreme to such an extent that people here are wary of your 'cry wolf' syndrome. Don't waste your energy ranting here. Spend it productively making more $ to afford your dream home otherwise you will end up disillusioned, bitter and blaming everybody else (rich foreigners, govt etc) for depriving you of what you think is due to you.

Yar right!!