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Thread: luxury market is in for a very hard time.

  1. #1
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    Default luxury market is in for a very hard time.

    OCR will continue to chiong?


    UOL Group, which yesterday posted a 19 per cent rise in full-year net profit to $807.7 million, said it expected demand and prices for residential property to fall in the aftermath of the latest cooling measures. Said Gwee Lian Kheng, UOL's group chief executive: "The recent cooling measures and the latest property tax changes by the government in Singapore will dampen overall demand and moderate prices.
    "We remain cautious and selective in our land acquisitions and will continue to reinforce our recurrent income streams and focus on improving the performance of our property investments and hospitality."
    The group will also stay away from the luxury market for now.
    "I think the luxury market is in for a very hard time. . . If I were to go in now I would go for the mass, or possibly lower end, type of market. For high end, I think I would go into hibernation for a while," said Mr Gwee
    "Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    OCR will continue to chiong?
    time to look for high-end when everybody is not interested. of course you have to have the $$$$$

  3. #3
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    How much more can ocr chiong?

    Agree that now is a good time to consolidate on ccr properties, provided able to find seller willing to sell cheap.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Allthepies
    time to look for high-end when everybody is not interested. of course you have to have the $$$$$
    true.. got bullet, got winner..
    I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.” - Robert Frost quotes (American poet, 1874-1963)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Allthepies
    time to look for high-end when everybody is not interested. of course you have to have the $$$$$
    Agree. Buy when no one is buying.... and better still if can hold
    When you have eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth

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    what is considered high end?

    i mean the ardmores etc are clear cases. is a 2 plus mil aspen heights or d leedon considered high end?

    do we go by quantum or psf?

    in any case, the 5-10m market has been dead for 2 years already.

  7. #7
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    what is considered high end?

    i mean the ardmores etc are clear cases, but is a 2 plus mil aspen heights or d leedon considered high end?

    do we go by quantum or psf?

    in any case, the 5-10m market has been dead for years already.

  8. #8
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    maybe everybody will be in hard time

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    With 6.9 Million cramming here, there will be no end to the high end suffering in the back end for many more weekends...

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    I think high-end luxury must refer to the $5 million and above market bah. How can those $2+ million be considered high end? Also cannot go by PSF. Or else all the MMs are high end liao. Haha.

    Quote Originally Posted by smellyfish
    what is considered high end?

    i mean the ardmores etc are clear cases. is a 2 plus mil aspen heights or d leedon considered high end?

    do we go by quantum or psf?

    in any case, the 5-10m market has been dead for 2 years already.

  11. #11
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    There is a reason why it is not moving. Don't anyhow use warped logic like because nobody buy condos >$4kpsf means I need to buy now. At the end of the day, in mature market like Singapore, look at fundamentals and yields.

    Quote Originally Posted by Allthepies
    time to look for high-end when everybody is not interested. of course you have to have the $$$$$

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    Delete. Double post

    Quote Originally Posted by Allthepies
    time to look for high-end when everybody is not interested. of course you have to have the $$$$$

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    Quote Originally Posted by smellyfish
    what is considered high end?

    i mean the ardmores etc are clear cases, but is a 2 plus mil aspen heights or d leedon considered high end?

    do we go by quantum or psf?

    in any case, the 5-10m market has been dead for years already.
    my definition will be >3000psf non MM
    "Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    my definition will be >3000psf non MM

    hmmm, to me those are the uber, and apart from Simon "anyhow" cheong's developments, not that many I would think. Leedon Residences for eg is at about $2000 psf, and i think very classy and high end. Rivergate, and the newer stuff at River Valley should also be high end?

    to my low end eyes, high end probably means >3 million >2000 psf and in CCR

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    Extracted from Squarefoot.com. Rental at D9 and 10 is quite poor.

    Orchard / Tanglin (D9-D10)

    Note: Monthly rents followed by number of contracts
    Source: URA, squarefoot.com.sg




    200 to 300
    (sq ft)300 to 400
    (sq ft)400 to 500
    (sq ft)500 to 600
    (sq ft)600 to 700
    (sq ft)700 to 800
    (sq ft)800 to 900
    (sq ft)900 to 1000
    (sq ft)1000 to 1100
    (sq ft)1100 to 1200
    (sq ft)1200 to 1300
    (sq ft)1300 to 1400
    (sq ft)1400 to 1500
    (sq ft)1500 to 1600
    (sq ft)1600 to 1700
    (sq ft)1700 to 1800
    (sq ft)1800 to 1900
    (sq ft)1900 to 2000
    (sq ft)2000 to 2100
    (sq ft)2100 to 2200
    (sq ft)2200 to 2300
    (sq ft)2300 to 2400
    (sq ft)2400 to 2500
    (sq ft)2500 to 2600
    (sq ft)2600 to 2700
    (sq ft)2700 to 2800
    (sq ft)2800 to 2900
    (sq ft)2900 to 3000
    (sq ft)>3000
    (sq ft)District
    9 - $3,200
    # 21 $3,300
    # 53 $3,700
    # 80 $4,050
    # 50 $4,200
    # 53 $4,550
    # 71 $4,300
    # 87 $5,250
    # 111 $5,300
    # 104 $5,500
    # 87 $6,000
    # 85 $6,100
    # 50 $6,250
    # 75 $6,000
    # 51 $7,000
    # 44 $8,100
    # 22 $8,400
    # 14 $7,300
    # 29 $9,300
    # 17 $9,900
    # 18 $8,500
    # 19 $17,000
    # 9 $12,000
    # 7 $12,000
    # 11 $10,340
    # 7 $13,750
    # 12 - $14,000
    # 25 District
    10 - - $3,400
    # 12 $3,400
    # 41 $3,400
    # 17 $3,500
    # 40 $3,800
    # 49 $4,100
    # 100 $4,400
    # 85 $4,200
    # 81 $4,600
    # 93 $5,500
    # 91 $5,400
    # 80 $5,650
    # 76 $6,050
    # 68 $6,650
    # 72 $6,750
    # 47 $8,000
    # 47 $9,700
    # 35 $10,000
    # 21 $9,200
    # 29 $8,600
    # 21 $9,200
    # 11 $12,800
    # 17 $11,500
    # 12 $14,850
    # 24 $10,000
    # 19 $11,625
    # 6 $13,500
    # 75

  16. #16
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    May i know what does MM refers to?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Allthepies
    time to look for high-end when everybody is not interested. of course you have to have the $$$$$

    I CONCUR ....
    I think Old CCR properties $1400-$1800 psf (if you can get) are real GEMs.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thomaspaine
    I CONCUR ....
    I think Old CCR properties $1400-$1800 psf (if you can get) are real GEMs.
    quite a lot in that range what if you are looking at 3 room or bigger apts.

  19. #19
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    How can that price range be considered "high end"? Then you mean mid range? Anyway, that price range is everywhere. When something is so common, not considered high end liao.

    Quote Originally Posted by thomaspaine
    I CONCUR ....
    I think Old CCR properties $1400-$1800 psf (if you can get) are real GEMs.

  20. #20
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    Nothing except MM will chiong. If prices don't drop, already bonus.

    Investors confirm won't buy. 18% tax is nuts.
    Upgraders won't buy.
    Those with 1 house won't buy.
    Those who haven't buy, most bought BTO HDB.

    The left over are those who don't want to buy HDB, income above 12k and if they haven't been buying over the past few years, they probably won't need to buy. So left really a tiny portion who will buy. As to how tiny, I won't know.



    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    OCR will continue to chiong?

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by charle
    May i know what does MM refers to?
    MM = mass market (homes)

    Quote Originally Posted by Wild Falcon
    How can that price range be considered "high end"? Then you mean mid range? Anyway, that price range is everywhere. When something is so common, not considered high end liao.
    gotta agree with you on this one. then projects like ardmore would have to be reclassified as "ultra high end".

    i would say a property is high based based on a couple of factors, price psf primarily, followed by developer's name and fittings/facilities etc. it's really hard for everyone to be on the same page as to the exact definition, but i would have to say that going by quantum is difficult (you can get a big landed property in sembawang for saying 4-5mil ... but that is not considered high end at all). quantum only tells one part of the story ...

  22. #22
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    Tharman said in Bloomberg, income must go up, property price must stay flat

    He also said a little correction is ok
    ================

    Mr Tharman said the process of property prices becoming appropriate would "happen through a combination of income improvement, as well as prices certainly not going up further".
    "Some correction in prices will not be out of order," he added.
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  23. #23
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    To me

    High-end would be psf>$2k and quantum >$2m

    Luxury would be psf>$3k and floor area >2k sqft

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by smellyfish
    quite a lot in that range what if you are looking at 3 room or bigger apts.
    FH unless otherwise stated :
    1300-1800psf (estimates) :
    1. Tulip garden
    2. Sommerville park
    3. Spanish village
    4. Aspen Heights
    5. Cairnhill Plaza
    6. Cairnhill Mansions
    7. Grange Heights
    8. Elizabeth Tower
    9. Orchard Bel Air (99Y)


    1700-2100psf (estimates) :
    1. Yong An Park
    2. The Balmoral
    3. Regency Park
    4. Tanglin Park
    5. Avalon
    6. Elizabeth Heights

  25. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by evolutionx
    MM = mass market (homes)
    MM can be also coin as mickey mouse condo unit .. aka 1 bed unit..
    I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.” - Robert Frost quotes (American poet, 1874-1963)

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    Quote Originally Posted by roly8
    MM can be also coin as mickey mouse condo unit .. aka 1 bed unit..
    good catch. have completed forgotten about mickey mouse apts ... lol.

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    been viewing a number of units within orchard area. it still a tough neg with owners, either they stood firm on their asking, if not the units that are willing to neg has bad facing etc...

    it's a number game, need to see lots more units to find out the best deal.

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    Quote Originally Posted by puffer_fish
    been viewing a number of units within orchard area. it still a tough neg with owners, either they stood firm on their asking, if not the units that are willing to neg has bad facing etc...

    it's a number game, need to see lots more units to find out the best deal.
    i think the middle of the year is when you see the greatest effect of CM7. now is still early days.

    I would think that Feb transaction volume has completely crashed.

  29. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wild Falcon
    There is a reason why it is not moving. Don't anyhow use warped logic like because nobody buy condos >$4kpsf means I need to buy now. At the end of the day, in mature market like Singapore, look at fundamentals and yields.
    I use stock market as an analogy, when market crash big time and nobody buying, is it not a good time to buy????

  30. #30
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    If 30% MSR is applied to private, it will die. Dead.

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