Land Storm is Coming!!!

[radha08]

Bulls vs bears....AGAIN

[Ringo33]

threshold set by you??
so the condo psf will hit the roof whereby your EC will cost more than landed u mean....landed crash while others keep going....landed u mean 1.5mil to 3mil or 3mil - 7mil or those more than 10mil??
bro, wake up...
anyway, i dont wish to discuss this topic here with u, time wasting. sorry if i have offended u but you are indeed very persistent.

The decline in transaction volume and prices for large quantum properties is a clear sign of where the property market has already hit the threshold due to ABSD and LTV restriction.

Unlike landed property, developers for condo can shrink the unit size to make condo more affordable, something that is not possible for most landed property.

Unlikely landed, many are still investing in condo because there is still positive rental yield, for landed property if there are no much potential for capital appreciation, many will choose to cash out instead of holding.

[lajia]

My questions in my last post for u are supposed to clear your nonsensical assumptions. But if u choose to ignore, so be it.

There are many more to push u off but, no point...

The decline in transaction volume and prices for large quantum properties is a clear sign of where the property market has already hit the threshold due to ABSD and LTV restriction.

Unlike landed property, developers for condo can shrink the unit size to make condo more affordable, something that is not possible for most landed property.

Unlikely landed, many are still investing in condo because there is still positive rental yield, for landed property if there are no much potential for capital appreciation, many will choose to cash out instead of holding.

[CondoInterested]

The decline in transaction volume and prices for large quantum properties is a clear sign of where the property market has already hit the threshold due to ABSD and LTV restriction.

Unlike landed property, developers for condo can shrink the unit size to make condo more affordable, something that is not possible for most landed property.

Unlikely landed, many are still investing in condo because there is still positive rental yield, for landed property if there are no much potential for capital appreciation, many will choose to cash out instead of holding.

Ha ha ha... New concept invented, mm size landed... Small land, small house...

[proud owner]

i am just curious ... that there exist this chart...specifically for landed ..with each color and line representing .. Detached, Semi D, Terrace, Condo, Apt ...


is there a similar chart for Condo

where each color and line represents 2 rm, 3rm, 4rm, PH ...?

if there is .. and will the owner of that chart be able to tell us should we keep 2 bedroom and sell PH etc etc ???

[Rysk]

Is coming..

[Rysk]

Ha ha ha... New concept invented, mm size landed... Small land, small house...

Actually the new concept of mm on a BIG build-in area already started at NeWest..
- Super Big terrace space
- Big planter area
- Small living & dining area
- Small kitchen
- Small masterbdrm
- All common bdrm almost similar to the size of maid's bdrm

Not surprising it will work on landed as well

[Arcachon]

One part of the film talked about the monetary system. It claimed that the growth of money supply is inherent in a capitalist system, which is why inflation is inevitable. Evidence: an apartment which was bought for $20,000 in the 1970s can now be sold for $500,000. Basically, there is just more and more money being circulated as time goes by.

The film showed a chart of the money supply in the US since the 1950s and juxtaposed that against the chart of the US national debt. The trajectories of both charts are strikingly similar, leading the filmmakers to conclude that money is created out of nothing but government debts. That in fact is the argument of the Modern Chartalism theory, which states that under a fiat money system, net currency is created by government through deficit spending.

That set me thinking. The Singapore government runs a budget surplus year after year. How is the money supply in Singapore created? And oh my, how the money supply in Singapore has grown.

M2 money supply in Singapore - which includes currency in active circulation, demand deposits of the private sector, fixed deposits, Singdollar negotiable certificates of deposits, savings and other deposits - totalled $170.9 billion at the end of 2000. By November last year, M2 in Singapore had ballooned to $401.4 billion. That's an increase of 135 per cent or 8.9 per cent a year in the past 10 years. In comparison, the gross domestic product (GDP) grew by about 6.4 per cent a year during that period.

So what makes the money supply grow in Singapore? I came across a document entitled Monetary Policy Operations in Singapore on the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) website. The 32-page document highlights the key aspects of MAS's monetary policy operations, foreign exchange and money market operations, and the various factors and considerations underlying them.

The four primary responsibilities of MAS are:

Implementation of exchange rate policy;
Conduct of money market operations for banking system liquidity management;
Management/issuance of Singapore Government Securities (SGS) in support of government initiatives in bond market development; and
Provision of banking and financial services to the government.

http://www.asiaone.com/Business/My%2...-261348/2.html

[westman]

Crash or no crash, you still cannot afford because it is either still too expensive for you or you had lost your job.

Crash will benefit many people except you.

Huh?

Tot he already bought a unit at flamingo valley? Have not been follow up with this troll story since last year?

What is the lastest story? Last heard laguna reported ah tan trick to get 90% loan... did ah tan get it from his employer?

[Arcachon]

http://business.asiaone.com/news/odd...-week-analysts


Odds on for ECB rate cut next week: Analysts

[Jaykj]

I think this thread should be re-named as :

Cash Storm is Coming !!!

With all the central banks flooding the market with massive amounts of paper money, CASH will be seen crashing onto our shores waves after waves.

Wanton noodles will hit $5 in hawker centre in NO TIME!

Those holding cash (including poor Office Boy!) will be facing major erosion.

We have already seen how our $100K since 2008-2009 is now worth about $80K only! And when seen from property perspective, thats worth even lesser!

So dear readers, please Think, Think, Think ... cling onto something that can be used to hedge the inflation even property prices only goes up 1% per quarter or month, it is better than leaving it in the bank.

Those who MTBs, this maybe your last chance to grab something before you and your children realised you are now in the lower social echeleon. I am say you have seen these people, people who cannot dream of owning a PC because they never had the chance to (financially).

Think, my friends, Think.

If a big economy like US can avert a deep depression, what to mention Singapore property market, which is totally controlled by the government ?
Price drop 15% ? Nevermind, we stop land sales, remove the ABSD, remove the loan restrictions to foreigners, etc.

We are even know to give discount on the 3% initial stamp duty during bad times to ensure that the property market turn around! ... Those were the days ...

DKSG

Certainly agree....and ppty will be one of those assets I will cling on tight tight! And landed being limted in Singapore, I will cling onto it even tighter!

Especially when its so difficult to buy with all the ABSD, SSD etc. If I have multiple ppty of various segments, landed will be the last to be sold. Furthermore, the purported supply glut will be in condo and tsunami of land govt land sales are for condos and not landed...even my 85 year old Ah-Ma also tell me she will not sell her semi-D at clover to buy a new condo even though its super lok kok She said condo not only unlimited, the sky's also the limit. Today limit 40 story, tomorrow 50 story, next time maybe 100 story. Landed is different, its limited and no new supply unless one buy from existing owners....

Dun understand why thread-starter use the chart and target landed. If drop, all will drop. And usually for multiple ppty holders, usually condo is the 1st to be liquidated....I seldon see people sell landed first. If sell landed, usually is to buy bigger landed....

[Ringo33]

Landed has always been limited and again it wont be a factor when crisis hit Singapore. good decent size landed is only worth keeping if you really own it (not the bank) and more importantly you must also have enough excess cash to hand down to your children to start a family if you mati mati wish to cling on to it. Else children will wish for the death of the old man so that they can cash out to buy condo.

[Pynchmail]

Landed has always been limited and again it wont be a factor when crisis hit Singapore. good decent size landed is only worth keeping if you really own it (not the bank) and more importantly you must also have enough excess cash to hand down to your children to start a family if you mati mati wish to cling on to it. Else children will wish for the death of the old man so that they can cash out to buy condo.

The graph uses 4Q98 as the base, had the graph show 1Q97 as the base, the picture may be very different. Wonder if anyone has a graph using 1Q97 as the base index of 100 for all property types.

[Ringo33]

Someone posted it before. I think it look similar to this..
Like i said before, in 1996, everyone was also saying freehold landed is limited, better hold tight tight.

[Pynchmail]

Someone posted it before. I think it look similar to this..
Like i said before, in 1996, everyone was also saying freehold landed is limited, better hold tight tight.

This graph uses 4Q98 as the base too.

[proper-t]

This graph uses 4Q98 as the base too.

No point asking TS such questions. He doesn't even know how to interpret his own chart.

And IIRC, the interest rate for during 2000 and 2008 were pretty stable, however we did see a massive price correction of landed property during both period, which I believe DSR for landed owners were clearly <50%.

[kane]

The convergence will happen at some point in the future but it could be 3-4years down the road. Basically it will happen when the big recession comes and I don't think it'll be in the next 12 mths.

[Ringo33]

This graph uses 4Q98 as the base too.

Thats a pretty silly question actually.

why would using a higher price point as base reference make any difference to how the market track property prices? Ultimately it is still affordability and demand that drive the market, not the chart.

Are you thinking that by moving the base point higher, the entire property market have more room to move even higher?

[Ringo33]

The convergence will happen at some point in the future but it could be 3-4years down the road. Basically it will happen when the big recession comes and I don't think it'll be in the next 12 mths.

you will need to be superman who wear underwear outside to believe that with ABSD, SSD and LTV restriction, investors (not home owner) are still keen on putting money in landed property.

[proper-t]

Thats a pretty silly question actually.

If this is a silly question -

The graph uses 4Q98 as the base, had the graph show 1Q97 as the base, the picture may be very different. Wonder if anyone has a graph using 1Q97 as the base index of 100 for all property types.

Then this is a ???? answer

Someone posted it before. I think it look similar to this..
Like i said before, in 1996, everyone was also saying freehold landed is limited, better hold tight tight.

[kane]

you will need to be superman who wear underwear outside to believe that with ABSD, SSD and LTV restriction, investors (not home owner) are still keen on putting money in landed property.

There is always a few superman in the market rightly or wrongly. Rationally, it may not be the best bet. But markets have the ability to stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent.

[Ringo33]

There is always a few superman in the market rightly or wrongly. Rationally, it may not be the best bet. But markets have the ability to stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent.

Wrong quote lah. In property we only become insolvent when market become rational not irrational. Irrational means huat Liao

[kane]

When it becomes irrational bearish for a prolonged period, people lose their pants.

[Jaykj]

Landed has always been limited and again it wont be a factor when crisis hit Singapore. good decent size landed is only worth keeping if you really own it (not the bank) and more importantly you must also have enough excess cash to hand down to your children to start a family if you mati mati wish to cling on to it. Else children will wish for the death of the old man so that they can cash out to buy condo.

So again my question, why do you say only landed or its owners will suffer? Why not the other classes of ppty like apt, condo, HDB? Any ppty buyers who over commit will mati, regardless of the type when poo hit the fan, who wish to cling on to it.

[Ringo33]

So again my question, why do you say only landed or its owners will suffer? Why not the other classes of ppty like apt, condo, HDB? Any ppty buyers who over commit will mati, regardless of the type when poo hit the fan, who wish to cling on to it.

The reason is simple. Landed property prices has climb too fast and furious and it has lose it economic sense of being a home, and you can easily tell from the rental

Assuming 3K rent / 1m asset, for someone living in a 4m landed property, the opportunity cost will be around 9 to 12k per month, which is around $300 to 400 per day, excluding all other expenses, wear and tear etc.

[lajia]

Don't prove yourselves to be a fool....it is no brainer that landed do not have good rental yield. So if your intention is to rent, wouldn't it better to get 2/3 MM to rent out rather than 1 normal terrace unit?
It is going up because of land scarcity. Understand?? Did u often see land being tender for landed development these days??
And as so many pointed out, if landed drop, all others will also drop. There is no such thing that landed drop while your EC maintain its price level!

The reason is simple. Landed property prices has climb too fast and furious and it has lose it economic sense of being a home, and you can easily tell from the rental

Assuming 3K rent / 1m asset, for someone living in a 4m landed property, the opportunity cost will be around 9 to 12k per month, which is around $300 to 400 per day, excluding all other expenses, wear and tear etc.

[Ringo33]

Don't prove yourselves to be a fool....it is no brainer that landed do not have good rental yield. So if your intention is to rent, wouldn't it better to get 2/3 MM to rent out rather than 1 normal terrace unit?
It is going up because of land scarcity. Understand?? Did u often see land being tender for landed development these days??
And as so many pointed out, if landed drop, all others will also drop. There is no such thing that landed drop while your EC maintain its price level!

Rent is actually the best parameter to gauge if the property price has gone beyond its true economic value of a home.

At the moment, for condo, the ballpark is around $3k rent per $1m apartment. So if someone living in a 4M landed property decided to cash out today and buy 4 units of $1m condo, he/she will be able to to live in one and rent out 3 others to collect around $9k of additional income for doing almost nothing, or $108K per year, or 2.7% yield over your initial $4m assets

so the logic behind this is, how many family will actually value that "landed tag" more than having additional $300 in your pocket everyday.

[Ringo33]

so when landed property owners wakes up decides to cash out for the sake of their future and children, you will know where the money will flow to. Even a fool will know this answer..

[lajia]

Bro, landed is just not for u la...hahaha....talk about economic value....so what is logic and economic value?? OCR at 1300psf and cluster landed at less than 500psf?? Which one u buy if u based on economic value and logic?

So EC psf will hit 1300psf while landed psf will continue to drop??

What economic value is there for a sedan car compared to a 10 seater van if the van is cheaper? What logic is there if a 2500sqf terrace cost 1.5mil while a condo of 1300sqf cost more than 1.2mil in the same district?? Who will buy porsche if u talk about economic value?? Come on bro, don't u get it??

Again, I told u there are seldom ppl buying landed just for renting as primary reason.

Rent is actually the best parameter to gauge if the property price has gone beyond its true economic value of a home.

At the moment, for condo, the ballpark is around $3k rent per $1m apartment. So if someone living in a 4M landed property decided to cash out today and buy 4 units of $1m condo, he/she will be able to to live in one and rent out 3 others to collect around $9k of additional income for doing almost nothing, or $108K per year, or 2.7% yield over your initial $4m assets

so the logic behind this is, how many family will actually value that "landed tag" more than having additional $300 in your pocket everyday.

[Ringo33]

Bro, landed is just not for u la...hahaha....talk about economic value....so what is logic and economic value?? OCR at 1300psf and cluster landed at less than 500psf?? Which one u buy if u based on economic value and logic?

So EC psf will hit 1300psf while landed psf will continue to drop??

What economic value is there for a sedan car compared to a 10 seater van if the van is cheaper? What logic is there if a 2500sqf terrace cost 1.5mil while a condo of 1300sqf cost more than 1.2mil in the same district?? Who will buy porsche if u talk about economic value?? Come on bro, don't u get it??

Again, I told u there are seldom ppl buying landed just for renting as primary reason.

Quantum is actually more important than psf today because as family size shrink, more and more families are willing to sacrifice space for lifestyle and convenience. For landed, if one doesnt need the space, all that you own are wasted. So might as well extract the value of these excess space by converting them into several condos for rental instead.

I have heard many people saying that buying landed is not for rental etc, so my question is, if there is not rental potential and not capital appreciation potential due to ABSD, SSD, LTV, then what is the point of holding on to landed?