Land Storm is Coming!!!

[Jaykj]

Quantum is actually more important than psf today because as family size shrink, more and more families are willing to sacrifice space for lifestyle and convenience. For landed, if one doesnt need the space, all that you own are wasted. So might as well extract the value of these excess space by converting them into several condos for rental instead.

I have heard many people saying that buying landed is not for rental etc, so my question is, if there is not rental potential and not capital appreciation potential due to ABSD, SSD, LTV, then what is the point of holding on to landed?

No offence bro....I'm beginning to wonder if you are a ppty developer (Frgrance kind) who wants to buy land to build MM?

Sorry man....I'm really not willing to sacrifice space for life style and convenience. Maybe you are....not me man. Especially when Sg gets increasing crowded....the last thing i want is to come back home and squeeze onto a queen size bed with my wife when in the day time I'm already squeeze left, right, centre on the road, at the restuarant and the shopping centre.

[lajia]

let me share with you from my prospective if you have not heard from anyone...

if u dont need the space and got no money or not enough money, then very obvious, dont go for landed. this goes not only in buying property. if you can only afford a 42 inch TV, then please dont try to buy a 56 inch tv and so on...

what abcd or ssd or whatever u call it, dont be too shortsighted. ppl who buy landed normally dont flip like in condo those days or even now...put up a longer horizon, if not, then u go for MM. again, let me say the fact is, land is scarce. so dont hold landed then hold what?? pigeon unit in 40 storey high condo which cost as much as landed or slightly lower then landed as I have show u some eg??

Quantum is actually more important than psf today because as family size shrink, more and more families are willing to sacrifice space for lifestyle and convenience. For landed, if one doesnt need the space, all that you own are wasted. So might as well extract the value of these excess space by converting them into several condos for rental instead.

I have heard many people saying that buying landed is not for rental etc, so my question is, if there is not rental potential and not capital appreciation potential due to ABSD, SSD, LTV, then what is the point of holding on to landed?

[sgbuyer]

what abcd or ssd or whatever u call it, dont be too shortsighted. ppl who buy landed normally dont flip like in condo those days or even now...put up a longer horizon, if not, then u go for MM. again, let me say the fact is, land is scarce. so dont hold landed then hold what?? pigeon unit in 40 storey high condo which cost as much as landed or slightly lower then landed as I have show u some eg??

Pigeon hole bubble.

[Ringo33]

let me share with you from my prospective if you have not heard from anyone...

if u dont need the space and got no money or not enough money, then very obvious, dont go for landed. this goes not only in buying property. if you can only afford a 42 inch TV, then please dont try to buy a 56 inch tv and so on...

what abcd or ssd or whatever u call it, dont be too shortsighted. ppl who buy landed normally dont flip like in condo those days or even now...put up a longer horizon, if not, then u go for MM. again, let me say the fact is, land is scarce. so dont hold landed then hold what?? pigeon unit in 40 storey high condo which cost as much as landed or slightly lower then landed as I have show u some eg??

There is nothing new to what you are saying. All you need to do is ask yourself what was property investment like in the 90s, what were property investors thinking when they bought their landed property at the peak? How did it come down so hard and so fast? Are those detached houses investors not aware that landed are limited? And they should hold for long terms?

During good times, there is no need to talking about tightening of belt. It is only when recession hits and job retrenchment, then people will wake up and realize that they dont have what it takes to pull through the recession.

The same goes for buying luxury cars. Do you think that all luxury car driver are rich? You will be surprise how many are buying them using 100% loan.

I am old enough to see through several such cycles and I always remember there are only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity.

[proper-t]

I am old enough to see through several such cycles and I always remember there are only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity.

Its amazing the lengths some people go to just to prove their own statement on infinite human stupidity...

Just in this thread alone:

1. TS uses a chart to try to strike fear that a crash is imminent and then goes on to say that certain segments will crash whilst others will not when the exact same chart historically shows all segments of the property market to converge whenever a crash occurs.

2. See post #50.

From other threads

3. Tells people to compare maintenance cost of a condo against the utility bills of a landed

btw, you might want to use maintenance cost of The Marq to compare to your landed utilities bills. I am sure that will be more appropriate..

4. Superb math skills

Today paper say there were 100 landed property break in cases last year. which mean, everyday almost 3 houses will get hit.

5. View from other forumers

he makes as much sense as his arguments that the 3rd IR will be in jurong

There's more but I don't have the time to cover infinity.

[Rysk]

Quantum is actually more important than psf today...

What quantum are you talking??
I will sell my 2700sf apartment at Hamilton Scotts for $9-mil..
And buy 3 Luxus Hills inter-terrace cost $9-mil.. I'll stay in 1.. 1 for my son.. 1 for my daugher..
This is my so-called "quantum"

[Ringo33]

What quantum are you talking??
I will sell my 2700sf apartment at Hamilton Scotts for $9-mil..
And buy 3 Luxus Hills inter-terrace cost $9-mil.. I'll stay in 1.. 1 for my son.. 1 for my daugher..
This is my so-called "quantum"

thats if your Hamilton Scotts is fully paid loh. which I doubt so.

[MLP]

Haha Ringo....Ringo....Still trying to talk down landed properties like this is your full time job! Only idiots will believe in you.

Are you out of your mind? Your comparison is totally way out by a long distance. How can you compare a Lexus with a Corolla although both are Toyota cars? These are two separate classes. People who buy landed properties are mainly for own stay and for the space to enjoy. Given the level of congestion and land scarcity in Singapore, space become a precious item and landed property owners are not easily swayed to sell their houses like you said.

If landed property prices do go down, many existing landed owners will the opportunity to buy more instead of selling (me included). These owners can see the long term value of a landed property. I am sorry that your talk on landed property crashing will remain an illusion to you for a long time.

Rent is actually the best parameter to gauge if the property price has gone beyond its true economic value of a home.

At the moment, for condo, the ballpark is around $3k rent per $1m apartment. So if someone living in a 4M landed property decided to cash out today and buy 4 units of $1m condo, he/she will be able to to live in one and rent out 3 others to collect around $9k of additional income for doing almost nothing, or $108K per year, or 2.7% yield over your initial $4m assets

so the logic behind this is, how many family will actually value that "landed tag" more than having additional $300 in your pocket everyday.

[Ringo33]

Haha Ringo....Ringo....Still trying to talk down landed properties like this is your full time job! Only idiots will believe in you.

Are you out of your mind? Your comparison is totally way out by a long distance. How can you compare a Lexus with a Corolla although both are Toyota cars? These are two separate classes. People who buy landed properties are mainly for own stay and for the space to enjoy. Given the level of congestion and land scarcity in Singapore, space become a precious item and landed property owners are not easily swayed to sell their houses like you said.

If landed property prices do go down, many existing landed owners will the opportunity to buy more instead of selling (me included). These owners can see the long term value of a landed property. I am sorry that your talk on landed property crashing will remain an illusion to you for a long time.

Please do not hijack this thread to brag about your wealth because behind the computer anybody can say how rich and handsome they are, it is just your word vs mine. So, its pointless. I hope you get it.

[MLP]

Haha, Ringo...Ringo....Why keep talking bullshit? Your theory are all bullshit, understand?

Please do not hijack this thread to brag about your wealth because behind the computer anybody can say how rich and handsome they are, it is just your word vs mine. So, its pointless. I hope you get it.

[Jaykj]

[QUOTE=Ringo33]There is nothing new to what you are saying. All you need to do is ask yourself what was property investment like in the 90s, what were property investors thinking when they bought their landed property at the peak? How did it come down so hard and so fast? Are those detached houses investors not aware that landed are limited? And they should hold for long terms?

During good times, there is no need to talking about tightening of belt. It is only when recession hits and job retrenchment, then people will wake up and realize that they dont have what it takes to pull through the recession.

(deleted)

[QUOTE]

Again you have not answered my question....why did you single out landed? As far as I could remember, all ppty segments (HDB, apt, condos, landed) were peak in the 90s before all crashed after AFC.

So if you say conditions are similiar then and now, why this time only landed will crash while other segments wouldn't? Doesn't gel leh

[Ringo33]

[quote=Jaykj][quote=Ringo33]There is nothing new to what you are saying. All you need to do is ask yourself what was property investment like in the 90s, what were property investors thinking when they bought their landed property at the peak? How did it come down so hard and so fast? Are those detached houses investors not aware that landed are limited? And they should hold for long terms?

During good times, there is no need to talking about tightening of belt. It is only when recession hits and job retrenchment, then people will wake up and realize that they dont have what it takes to pull through the recession.

(deleted)

Again you have not answered my question....why did you single out landed? As far as I could remember, all ppty segments (HDB, apt, condos, landed) were peak in the 90s before all crashed after AFC.

So if you say conditions are similiar then and now, why this time only landed will crash while other segments wouldn't? Doesn't gel leh

I hope this help answer your question.

[proper-t]

Same chart again? your universal answer to all questions.

1. Why do you think an imminent crash is coming? The 97 crash was caused by Asian financial crisis. What is going to cause your supposed crash and when do you think it will happen?

2. If a crash comes, Why do you think some segments will crash whilst others will not when the exact same chart you are using as your universal answer show otherwise?

[kane]

Look back at the chart one more time, I just noticed that terrace rally more than semi d. Ha.

[Ringo33]

Look back at the chart one more time, I just noticed that terrace rally more than semi d. Ha.

That is not surprising because in the landed property segment, detached housing always take the lead. In this segment of the market, buyers tend to follow what the super rich are doing, hence they always do it a few step behind the market, which mean entering at the tail end of the cycle.

If you look at the below chart posted by Dtrax, you can see the during the last major crash in 1997, detached housing are coming down fast and furious while terrace housing are still chioging. Perhaps in those days, information are less available hence to a certain degree that is some lagging effect. But the same pattern is happening now as we speak, because human have short memory.

I think this is very similar to why institutional investors will tend to lead in the stock market before retail investors jump in to buy or sell.

In the luxury condo segment costing >$5m, we have already seen a slow down or correction (as you can see from the chart), and detached housing has already slowing down. the only that is still chionging are the terrace housing, perhaps they have an ultra long term outlook.

[proper-t]

That is not surprising because in the landed property segment, detached housing always take the lead. In this segment of the market, buyers tend to follow what the super rich are doing, hence they always do it a few step behind the market, which mean entering at the tail end of the cycle.

If you look at the below chart posted by Dtrax, you can see the during the last major crash in 1997, detached housing are coming down fast and furious while terrace housing are still chioging. Perhaps in those days, information are less available hence to a certain degree that is some lagging effect. But the same pattern is happening now as we speak, because human have short memory.

Can you please explain the part in bold about terrace housing still `chioging` in relation to the chart you posted which I have magnified below for easy reference

[proud owner]

one thing for sure ..

if landed at Watten were to drop ... sure can find buyer ...

my friend lives there ... long time ...

according to him ... everytime mkt drop ... FEO's family member will buy ...

I think they are hoping to eventually own the entire watten estate ... expanding their Ng's Mansion ..

[Arcachon]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...-tapering.html


Facing the risk of a fourth straight summertime slowdown, Federal Reserve officials raised the prospect of increasing the monthly pace of bond buying above $85 billion to guard against any slump in growth or employment.

[kane]

one thing for sure ..

if landed at Watten were to drop ... sure can find buyer ...

my friend lives there ... long time ...

according to him ... everytime mkt drop ... FEO's family member will buy ...

I think they are hoping to eventually own the entire watten estate ... expanding their Ng's Mansion ..

were they involved in building the landed houses there in the old days??

[thomaspaine]

The reason is simple. Landed property prices has climb too fast and furious and it has lose it economic sense of being a home, and you can easily tell from the rental

Assuming 3K rent / 1m asset, for someone living in a 4m landed property, the opportunity cost will be around 9 to 12k per month, which is around $300 to 400 per day, excluding all other expenses, wear and tear etc.

Hi Ringo33

i have been following your Landed vs Condo arguments for quite a while now and I think your views are too biased.

How do you explain why women pay ridiculous amounts of money for a HERMES bag and men pay hefty amounts of cash to buy a ferrari ??

[Ringo33]

Hi Ringo33

i have been following your Landed vs Condo arguments for quite a while now and I think your views are too biased.

How do you explain why women pay ridiculous amounts of money for a HERMES bag and men pay hefty amounts of cash to buy a ferrari ??

It's either they have money or they want to look like they have money. Some might go as far as buying fake branded good to make them feel and think like they have money.

And this is exactly the reason why I am saying that prices of landed property no long carries the economic value of home, it is just a hot potatos which everyone is hoping will get hotter and hotter till it explode.

[proper-t]

Hi Ringo33

i have been following your Landed vs Condo arguments for quite a while now and I think your views are too biased.

How do you explain why women pay ridiculous amounts of money for a HERMES bag and men pay hefty amounts of cash to buy a ferrari ??

The 'fan' club is growing by the day...

[bullman]

The 'fan' club is growing by the day...

Its nice to have guys like them around to make us look good.

[proper-t]

Its nice to have guys like them around to make us look good.

fully agree!

[samuelk]

It's either they have money or they want to look like they have money. Some might go as far as buying fake branded good to make them feel and think like they have money.

And this is exactly the reason why I am saying that prices of landed property no long carries the economic value of home, it is just a hot potatos which everyone is hoping will get hotter and hotter till it explode.

not everyone has a huge inferiority complex. There is not a whole lot to try to pretend to be rich.

[Ringo33]

not everyone has a huge inferiority complex. There is not a whole lot to try to pretend to be rich.

No point guessing lah. its only when the tide goes down, then we will know who is swimming naked. however judging by what I read from 2012 household income report, I am pretty certain that many are actually swimming naked.

History will repeat itself and it always will

[lajia]

what have you deduce from the 2012 household report? please enlighten and highlight the fact here. Does it mentioned who stays in landed?

No point guessing lah. its only when the tide goes down, then we will know who is swimming naked. however judging by what I read from 2012 household income report, I am pretty certain that many are actually swimming naked.

History will repeat itself and it always will

[Ringo33]

what have you deduce from the 2012 household report? please enlighten and highlight the fact here. Does it mentioned who stays in landed?

Have you read the report? Which section of the report do you not understand?

[lajia]

hahaha...it is not that i dont understand. I am puzzled by your remark "judging by what I read from 2012 household income report, I am pretty certain that many are actually swimming naked".......this is where i'm coming from. point to me what makes you deduce this remark and highlight the FACT here. not guessing here and there wasting time.

Have you read the report? Which section of the report do you not understand?

[Ringo33]

hahaha...it is not that i dont understand. I am puzzled by your remark "judging by what I read from 2012 household income report, I am pretty certain that many are actually swimming naked".......this is where i'm coming from. point to me what makes you deduce this remark and highlight the FACT here. not guessing here and there wasting time.

Since you have read the report, why dont you list down

1) What is the average price of Landed property (your estimate)
2) What is the average household of landed property
3) What is the average income of person living in landed property.

I am sure if you put them together you will know what I mean by "swimming naked"

Then again, I am not expecting you not to keep talking about the word NAKED because kids always get really excited when they hear adult mentioning words like naked or even sammyboy.