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Thread: Land Storm is Coming!!!

  1. #121
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    If landed property owner are as rich and wealthy as what many here is saying, then I dont see why household income is not reflecting it and landed property price could crash so badly during past crisis.

    If that is not call "swimming naked" as a figure of speech, then what is?

    You have obviously not been reading all the posts by the bros here. I brought up my own example to show you why household income may not reflect the actual wealth of landed owners but you obviously cannot accept it. I can see why a lot of the bros here just cannot stomach your kind of circular thinking. Keep re-hashing up the same points over and over again.

    My advice to you - stop trying so hard to win at all cost. Going by all the responses so far, I doubt if anyone here takes you seriously. The harder you try, the more people are going to turn against you and eventually you'll be labelled a laughing stock. Its only your ego.

  2. #122
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    Well done Ringo33,

    Just continue to post the same chart over and over again.



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    Quote Originally Posted by equalizer
    You have obviously not been reading all the posts by the bros here. I brought up my own example to show you why household income may not reflect the actual wealth of landed owners but you obviously cannot accept it. I can see why a lot of the bros here just cannot stomach your kind of circular thinking. Keep re-hashing up the same points over and over again.

    My advice to you - stop trying so hard to win at all cost. Going by all the responses so far, I doubt if anyone here takes you seriously. The harder you try, the more people are going to turn against you and eventually you'll be labelled a laughing stock. Its only your ego.

    One common mistake that many investor make is to think that everyone think and act the same way.

    If you think household income is not an accurate indicator, then could you tell us what is a more accurate indicator?

    Could you also explain why detached housing suffer the worst crash in the past crisis when detached house owner are of people with higher net-worth?

    The property boom we are seeing today is mainly caused by cheap loan and higher leverage, and there is no exceptions.
    "Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."

  4. #124
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    come dont run away....answer this first.

    how to have household income kept up with property price? did your household income rise as much as your EC? answer this...in 5 yrs property price doubled, can your household income double? If not, then you will sell off your property at huge loses?? What logic is this?


    Back in 1997, which property segment never drop?


    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    One common mistake that many investor make is to think that everyone think and act the same way.

    If you think household income is not an accurate indicator, then could you tell us what is a more accurate indicator?

    Could you also explain why detached housing suffer the worst crash in the past crisis when detached house owner are of people with higher net-worth?

    The property boom we are seeing today is mainly caused by cheap loan and higher leverage, and there is no exceptions.

  5. #125
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    One common mistake that many investor make is to think that everyone think and act the same way.

    If you think household income is not an accurate indicator, then could you tell us what is a more accurate indicator?

    Could you also explain why detached housing suffer the worst crash in the past crisis when detached house owner are of people with higher net-worth?

    The property boom we are seeing today is mainly caused by cheap loan and higher leverage, and there is no exceptions.
    Always using the same arguments to intimidate other forumers.

    DC33 already mentioned it earlier but TS obviously doesn't bother to read

    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008
    With a greeting population, household income will not be a good barometer. They should use an additional parameter , networth of people in a household.
    The price index just shows price movement. All it takes is a few super low transactions to affect the price index. Having the greatest price drop is not the same as having the most forced sales transactions. What it does not show is which segment suffered the most in percentage terms of forced sales transactions during the crisis.

    Readers here can refer to page 1 and 2 of the thread I started below to read the facts. In fact, pg 2 is where this current TS had nothing to rebutt and announced that he would quit my thread but then goes back on his word to keep coming back to post several times.

    http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=17132
    Last edited by proper-t; 06-05-13 at 02:04.

  6. #126
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    Here is a snap shot of historical price movement for property in Singapore. Pretty obvious that the same bubble is developing and i am certain that history is about to repeat itself pretty soon. Perhaps when interest rate rises.

    As I see it, I believe the reason why detached houses always spike at the peak of the property cycle is because of greed. After making money from condo, terrace and maybe semi, people are placing bigger bet on detached houses with hope they will make even more money.



    Hi Ringo,
    Base on the chart, you said the pattern of 97 and the current one is the same.. & is pretty obvious blah blah blah..

    NB! both pattern is totally difference leh

  7. #127
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    Price of landed property has already reached a unsustainable level and you could easily see that by studying the rental yield for such property.

    Rental, is perhaps the most accurate indicator, because that is how much the market is willing to pay for living in such property. The only people who thinks otherwise are those who already leverage themselves heavily to buy one and the same people will argue that buying landed is for own stay or for capital appreciation etc. Own stay FYI, is consumption, and in the context of landed at its current price, it is excessive and foolish consumption.

    And the situation gets clearer when you look into the average income of landed property household and household members vs the average price of landed property today.

    As investor, one should invest based on facts rather than dream
    Last edited by Ringo33; 06-05-13 at 11:53.
    "Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."

  8. #128
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    you keep posting that useless chart, what happen to your answer to my question??

    "come dont run away....answer this first.

    how to have household income kept up with property price? did your household income rise as much as your EC? answer this...in 5 yrs property price doubled, can your household income double? If not, then you will sell off your property at huge loses?? What logic is this?
    Back in 1997, which property segment never drop?"




    Let me ask you,
    - the price of OCR condo at 1500psf sustainable? if no, then dont single out landed. if yes, then it is also just based on your assumption.

    - Rental is the most accurate indicator of what?? answer this. do u know how many rental contracts transacted for landed from Mar 2012 to Mar 2013? dont know then u go google, dont talk nonsense that if rental yield drop, landed market crash....this is really really nonsense. just this 7% of landed rented out and u say if price fall it will crash. if rental for landed really fall, u think the rental for condo will hold?? see, the whole market will have a chain reaction. all will fall apart, understand, not just landed!

    anyway, your cockroach mentality really use in a wrong manner.... please keep your chart, burn it and drink if u like it so much...pardon me...

    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    Price of landed property has already reached a unsustainable level and you could easily see that by studying the rental yield for such property.

    Rental, is perhaps the most accurate indicator, because that is how much the market is willing to pay for living in such property. The only people who thinks otherwise are those who already leverage themselves heavily to buy one and the same people will argue that buying landed is for own stay or for capital appreciation etc. Own stay FYI, is consumption, and in the context of landed at its current price, it is excessive and foolish consumption.

    And the situation gets clearer when you look into the average income of landed property household and household members vs the average price of landed property today.

    As investor, one should invest based on facts rather than dream

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    Quote Originally Posted by yowetan
    Hi...my eyes are on Mt Sinai only. My passion and love for this place cannot be describe with words.
    Cos there is nothing to describe.

  10. #130
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    The pattern of the curves does indicate a big bubble forming for landed properties. The exact same pattern can be seen during the 97 crash.
    Hi Ringo,

    I even try asked my kids between 5 to 12 years old..
    Seriously, all told me the pattern seen during 97 & current one is totally difference..

    Worst is.. My youngest one even suan me that how come I'm so stupid..

    Seriously, don't play me leh..

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rysk
    Hi Ringo,

    I even try asked my kids between 5 to 12 years old..
    Seriously, all told me the pattern seen during 97 & current one is totally difference..

    Worst is.. My youngest one even suan me that how come I'm so stupid..

    Seriously, don't play me leh..
    I dont blame them. Perhaps your kids should be in this forum, not you.
    "Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."

  12. #132
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    I dont blame them. Perhaps your kids should be in this forum, not you.
    You need company is it?

    Your math and chart interpretation skills appears to be around that level.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    Today paper say there were 100 landed property break in cases last year. which mean, everyday almost 3 houses will get hit.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    That is not surprising because in the landed property segment, detached housing always take the lead. In this segment of the market, buyers tend to follow what the super rich are doing, hence they always do it a few step behind the market, which mean entering at the tail end of the cycle.

    If you look at the below chart posted by Dtrax, you can see the during the last major crash in 1997, detached housing are coming down fast and furious while terrace housing are still chioging. Perhaps in those days, information are less available hence to a certain degree that is some lagging effect. But the same pattern is happening now as we speak, because human have short memory.
    Quote Originally Posted by proper-t
    Can you please explain the part in bold about terrace housing still `chioging` in relation to the chart you posted which I have magnified below for easy reference



  13. #133
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    Here is a snap shot of historical price movement for property in Singapore. Pretty obvious that the same bubble is developing and i am certain that history is about to repeat itself pretty soon. Perhaps when interest rate rises.



    Where is the bubble? I see a nice uptrend on the chart. There may be a dip ( or not) but it is still an uptrend. Perhaps this can help you understand the chart a little better.
    Singapore residents in 1997 is less than 3 m. Today it is Hovering close to 4m , A 30% increase. In addition , purchasing power has increase compared to 1997 with higher salary and possible influx of higher net worth citizens. Did i mention landed supply had greatly reduced since 97? Lastly , there is no ' free money ' back in 1997, but there are tons coming from US , Japan and possible Europe in the near future.
    Read the charts with all these facts and not just blindly see what you want to see. Otherwise, simply base on charts and scream crash is too

  14. #134
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    Small time investors are always lagging behind the curve when investing in property. Many big time investors have already started to off load their GCBs, while those wannabe are still screaming that price will continue to rise.

    Please do not bored us with all the text book talk about purchasing power ( would call it fake because of inflation) population etc. Since you bring this up, perhaps you might want to apply what you learn from text book to the real world by studying the household income report on landed property and then match that with the average price of landed property today.

    You are absolutely right about the free money, but you are absolutely wrong that this free money will continue forever.

    Just read a report of US recovery, and I am hopeful that interest rate will rise in the very near future, and when that happen, those who over leverage of landed property with income of less than 25k per month to feed the entire household is going to be screaming for help.
    "Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    Small time investors are always lagging behind the curve when investing in property. Many big time investors have already started to off load their GCBs, while those wannabe are still screaming that price will continue to rise.....

    .......

    Just read a report of US recovery, and I am hopeful that interest rate will rise in the very near future, and when that happen, those who over leverage of landed property with income of less than 25k per month to feed the entire household is going to be screaming for help.
    Haha... After the last hot topic "Pty price is coming down fast" by MR B.. this will be the next hot topic to argue about..

    But anyway.. the "curve" thing been repeating since Q1 2012 (when ppl saw the "curve").. repeating till now.. still repeating about the "curve" thing..

    "..interest rate will rise in the very near future" oso been repeating since 2009 by MR B.. repeated till MR B go MIA.. till now next person took over.. & still repeating it..

    Best is to give a dateline.. eg. "After this quarter will see crash" or something..
    Otherwise, the "curve" thing & the "interest rate will rise in the very near future" will keep coming back Q after Q..

    YAWN.. sibeh sigh liao leh..

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rysk
    Haha... After the last hot topic "Pty price is coming down fast" by MR B.. this will be the next hot topic to argue about..

    But anyway.. the "curve" thing been repeating since Q1 2012 (when ppl saw the "curve").. repeating till now.. still repeating about the "curve" thing..

    "..interest rate will rise in the very near future" oso been repeating since 2009 by MR B.. repeated till MR B go MIA.. till now next person took over.. & still repeating it..

    Best is to give a dateline.. eg. "After this quarter will see crash" or something..
    Otherwise, the "curve" thing & the "interest rate will rise in the very near future" will keep coming back Q after Q..

    YAWN.. sibeh sigh liao leh..

    Instead of talking about MR. B or Mr. C etc, why not confront the facts and tell us why think that current landed price is sustainable when the average household income of landed property is only around 25K?

    @ 25K average, that mean some might make 500k and above, while others could be earning a no more than 15K per month.
    "Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."

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    perhaps the reason why some are saying that they will not sell their landed property is because if they sell, they only way forward is downgrade.

    Instead of living happily in a fully paid landed property will small salary, why not just cash out and live in a condo enjoy the facilities, while still getting decent income from rental?
    "Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    Please do not bored us with all the text book talk about purchasing power ( would call it fake because of inflation) population etc. Since you bring this up, perhaps you might want to apply what you learn from text book to the real world by studying the household income report on landed property and then match that with the average price of landed property today.

    You are absolutely right about the free money, but you are absolutely wrong that this free money will continue forever.

    .
    Why do you ask me not to bring up textbook stuff and you quote to 'learn from text book to the real world ' at the same para? Very confusing if you decided to selectively pick what you can while have a biase against others.
    You are right that free money will not continue forever, but it will not end tomorrow. By the way I did not state free money last forever but merely imply the prices today reflects what is happening in 'real life' as per your quote.
    By the way free money save Us and created a boom that lasted since 07. Japan had just started the same. What will happen? Your guess is as good as mine.

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    Quote Originally Posted by iwantland
    Why do you ask me not to bring up textbook stuff and you quote to 'learn from text book to the real world ' at the same para? Very confusing if you decided to selectively pick what you can while have a biase against others.
    You are right that free money will not continue forever, but it will not end tomorrow. By the way I did not state free money last forever but merely imply the prices today reflects what is happening in 'real life' as per your quote.
    By the way free money save Us and created a boom that lasted since 07. Japan had just started the same. What will happen? Your guess is as good as mine.
    If you wish to convince me that there is not bubble in landed property you will have to do much better than that. Yes what you said are all very text book like
    "Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    perhaps the reason why some are saying that they will not sell their landed property is because if they sell, they only way forward is downgrade.

    Instead of living happily in a fully paid landed property will small salary, why not just cash out and live in a condo enjoy the facilities, while still getting decent income from rental?
    Very subjective leh.. How to distinguish upgrade or downgrade between landed or condo..

    There are $3-mio landed pty & condo.. oso $9-mio landed pty & condo

    Some ppl choose to stay in a $9-mio condo.. while some prefer to stay in a $3-mio landed pty..

    Can consider sell landed pty & upgrade to condo.. can?

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    Mr ringo, 3 times I'm posting this as to share with you that the chart and your views are questionable...so have u got any comments before more ppl add on to your list?

    Quote Originally Posted by lajia
    you keep posting that useless chart, what happen to your answer to my question??

    "come dont run away....answer this first.

    how to have household income kept up with property price? did your household income rise as much as your EC? answer this...in 5 yrs property price doubled, can your household income double? If not, then you will sell off your property at huge loses?? What logic is this?
    Back in 1997, which property segment never drop?"




    Let me ask you,
    - the price of OCR condo at 1500psf sustainable? if no, then dont single out landed. if yes, then it is also just based on your assumption.

    - Rental is the most accurate indicator of what?? answer this. do u know how many rental contracts transacted for landed from Mar 2012 to Mar 2013? dont know then u go google, dont talk nonsense that if rental yield drop, landed market crash....this is really really nonsense. just this 7% of landed rented out and u say if price fall it will crash. if rental for landed really fall, u think the rental for condo will hold?? see, the whole market will have a chain reaction. all will fall apart, understand, not just landed!

    anyway, your cockroach mentality really use in a wrong manner.... please keep your chart, burn it and drink if u like it so much...pardon me...

  22. #142
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    If you wish to convince me that there is not bubble in landed property you will have to do much better than that. Yes what you said are all very text book like
    Sorry sir, I have no wish to change your mindset. For every seller , there is a buyer and that is the market. I am merely stating the facts I see. I guess that the same can be said of you. There are always 2 side to an argument, otherwise it is known as concession and this topic would not exist. There is no right or wrong in stating facts and if it sound textbook, there must be a reason why it had existed in the first place .

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    Quote Originally Posted by iwantland
    Sorry sir, I have no wish to change your mindset. For every seller , there is a buyer and that is the market. I am merely stating the facts I see. I guess that the same can be said of you. There are always 2 side to an argument, otherwise it is known as concession and this topic would not exist. There is no right or wrong in stating facts and if it sound textbook, there must be a reason why it had existed in the first place .
    Well said! Welcome to the 'fan' club.

    The only statement I am in disagreement is the one in bold whereby you accord him way too much credit. It is obvious from his postings that TS doesn't sees any facts any at all and what's worst, is in total denial. In fact, his statements are so filmsy that so many forumers here find it so easy to poke holes in them. The fact that he can only rebut with his chart (repeated ad nauseum) and motherhood statements about the curve and textbook answers is evidence enough.

    In the mean time, invitations are opened to all to join in the 'fan' club. I think at the rate we are going, we should corner the entire forum in no time.

    Ringo33, please do continue to grace us with your presence.

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    Quote Originally Posted by iwantland
    Sorry sir, I have no wish to change your mindset. For every seller , there is a buyer and that is the market. I am merely stating the facts I see. I guess that the same can be said of you. There are always 2 side to an argument, otherwise it is known as concession and this topic would not exist. There is no right or wrong in stating facts and if it sound textbook, there must be a reason why it had existed in the first place .
    actually there is no 2 sides of what we are discussing here because what we are talking about is affordability and sustainability based on current landed price vs average household income of landed property owner.

    As the report has pointed out that average land property household income is around $25k per month, which mean some of which will fall way below $25K because many landed property owners are actually making more than that.

    So my question is how can landed property price continue to rise or sustain at this level if income is not rising?
    "Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    actually there is no 2 sides of what we are discussing here because what we are talking about is affordability and sustainability based on current landed price vs average household income of landed property owner.

    As the report has pointed out that average land property household income is around $25k per month, which mean some of which will fall way below $25K because many landed property owners are actually making more than that.

    So my question is how can landed property price continue to rise or sustain at this level if income is not rising?
    We only have information on average, so we cannot assume the range. In reality there are many kinds of landed from your 1 story 1960s terrace to the 300m property. As such , the range could accommodate both extremes. In addition, you are assuming most landed owners have only just bought their properties , thus may be affected by the downturn. Again, with only 6% of new launches per year for landed, the majority of landed owners most probably got it cheap way before the rise. As for affordability, with new citizens of a higher wealth bracket , they could very well cover the demand side ( especially when similar size condo cost far more in the same area for most cases) substainability is the question mark. It will substain as long as the current party of free cash prevails. As of now, no one is turning the lights off yet.

    As for 2 sides, plain and simple. You said crash, I say no crash, that counts 2 scenario . If landed merely corrects 20%, I am sure it will pip the interest of those that are waiting to prounce on the sideline, thus bringing about the bull cycle once more. In the longer run with an exploding population , owning a piece of precious , limited land in this little island makes good economic sense .

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    Quote Originally Posted by iwantland
    We only have information on average, so we cannot assume the range. In reality there are many kinds of landed from your 1 story 1960s terrace to the 300m property. As such , the range could accommodate both extremes. In addition, you are assuming most landed owners have only just bought their properties , thus may be affected by the downturn. Again, with only 6% of new launches per year for landed, the majority of landed owners most probably got it cheap way before the rise. As for affordability, with new citizens of a higher wealth bracket , they could very well cover the demand side ( especially when similar size condo cost far more in the same area for most cases) substainability is the question mark. It will substain as long as the current party of free cash prevails. As of now, no one is turning the lights off yet.

    As for 2 sides, plain and simple. You said crash, I say no crash, that counts 2 scenario . If landed merely corrects 20%, I am sure it will pip the interest of those that are waiting to prounce on the sideline, thus bringing about the bull cycle once more. In the longer run with an exploding population , owning a piece of precious , limited land in this little island makes good economic sense .
    Dont need to assume, the URA transaction volume of landed property are open information. Recently I am starting to see some sign of correction.

    And btw, there is no such thing as 300m landed property in Singapore yet, the largest being sold this year is around 25m I think.

    new citizen or not, they are all included in the household income report and saying new citizen are all rich and dumb can only be an assumption, not something that is worth discussing or debating unless you have numbers to show.
    "Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    Instead of talking about MR. B or Mr. C etc, why not confront the facts and tell us why think that current landed price is sustainable when the average household income of landed property is only around 25K?

    @ 25K average, that mean some might make 500k and above, while others could be earning a no more than 15K per month.
    Frankly speaking bro, I have never study & oso not interested to know about comparing average household income & pty price, in order to know whether Land Storm is Coming..

    Cos base on the past history of pty price correction.. None of it is due to comparing "average household income & pty price"
    That's why I'm not interested to use both of these it as a tools to judge whether the Land Storm is Coming

    Till now I still remember one last time showed us lots of facts & charts.. & even said he's full of knowledge with strong fundamental & scold ppl moron for 4-yrs.. In the end oso go MIA

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    Dont need to assume, the URA transaction volume of landed property are open information. Recently I am starting to see some sign of correction.
    Correction?

    Sembawang terrace in Dist 20 recently transacted at $1,858 psf, Dist 11 Greenwood terrace transacted at $2,669pf

    Date
    2013-04-22
    SEMBAWANG HILLS ESTATE, 112 NEMESU AVENUE, FREEHOLD,TERRACE 1,496sf, $2,788,000, $1,858psf

    Date
    2013-04-18
    159 GREENWOOD AVENUE, FREEHOLD,TERRACE,1,625sf, $4,350,000, $2,669psf

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    Dont need to assume, the URA transaction volume of landed property are open information. Recently I am starting to see some sign of correction.

    And btw, there is no such thing as 300m landed property in Singapore yet, the largest being sold this year is around 25m I think.

    new citizen or not, they are all included in the household income report and saying new citizen are all rich and dumb can only be an assumption, not something that is worth discussing or debating unless you have numbers to show.
    Ringo, if its just recently, I believe you will be able to quickly quote the respective transactions that showed weakness. And since you mentioned `some', you MUST have seen at least 2 or even 3 transactions to prove the point. So besides your beloved charts, maybe you could quote those examples for us to analyze?

    Thx!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    new citizen or not, they are all included in the household income report and saying new citizen are all rich and dumb can only be an assumption, not something that is worth discussing or debating unless you have numbers to show.
    I have not indicate in my statement that new citizens are all rich and dumb . Why do you interpret as such? On the contrary I did state land price will not crash, which indirectly imply the new purchases could be a good idea.

    Please do not twist words R33. I am new here but I sense you are not really interested in discussion. In that case, just leave it as that. Throwing in spicy comments to make yourself look noble is in your own words.. Dumb.

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    By Ringo33 in forum Landed Property
    Replies: 172
    -: 22-10-13, 20:47

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