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Thread: SSD turning 3

  1. #1
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    Default SSD turning 3

    Come Aug 2013, SSD will turn 3 years old, which mean the first batch of affected properties will be free to sell in the market without penalty.


    Will we see a sudden surge in resale supply in the coming months? Will this create and overhang in supply hence depressing the resale price further?
    "Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."

  2. #2
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    [QUOTE=Ringo33]Come Aug 2013, SSD will turn 3 years old, which mean the first batch of affected properties will be free to sell in the market without penalty.


    Will we see a sudden surge in resale supply in the coming months? Will this create and overhang in supply hence depressing the resale price further?[/


    Your many posts tends to tell me that you are an attention seeker.

    I almost think that you own *condosingapore* ..... Come on R33 ....be more objective!

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    Technically he is not wrong, problem is there are many other factor affecting property buying and selling. From the many post he make show other factor was not taken into consideration. If only life is so simple 1+1=2.

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    Please be more objective and focus on the topic of discussion, which is seller stamp duties turning 3 for the first time, not ringo33.

    Which mean the first batch of property effected by SSD restriction will slowly flood the market in the coming months. I am sure there will be an effect in the supply side.
    "Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."

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    It depends, sell already, the replacement cost is very high.

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    Quote Originally Posted by leesg123
    It depends, sell already, the replacement cost is very high.
    i second that. if it is a second property, 7% awaits. if it is the third, then 10% awaits.

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    Determinants of Housing prices,

    1. Demand Factors
    a.Gross Domestic Product
    b.Prime Lending Rate(Interest rate)
    c.Share Price Index
    d.Number of Marriages
    e.Price of Substitutes

    2. Supply Factors
    a.Supply of Housing
    b. Land Supply
    c. Cost of Building Materials
    d. Cost of Labor

    http://books.google.fr/books?id=OuET...roperty&f=true

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    http://www.propertyprice.com.sg/tips...-property.html


    TIPS ON WHEN TO BUY PRIVATE PROPERTY

    People keep planning about buying a private property all throughout their life but don’t really go forward to buy it. Everyday is the right time. Just go ahead and buy it. Do not speculate too much about when, where etc. Do a proper research about the property and just buy it.

  9. #9
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    A property will be a valuable resource but it also requires careful planning and plenty of researching to buy a property. There are many facets to buying a property; recognize these aspects of the business and then only proceed to do it else you might find yourself in a stressful situation.

    http://www.propertyprice.com.sg/mist...investors.html

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    When you start earning it is very important to buy a property even on loan as you can repay it before retiring. It won’t be a burden on you since you’ll be earning at your best. If you delay starting to plan about the property it may be a burden to you as the time passes by. The loan repayment amount each month keeps increasing when you delay the property buying.

    http://www.propertyprice.com.sg/prop...nvestment.html

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    As the cumulative effects of the seven rounds of property measures take effect and with an economy that is likely to remain subdued over the next couple of years, we believe it will be a matter of time before prices start to pull back, especially given the significant supply of properties due for completion over the next three years and the availability of additional new launches in both the private and public sectors.

    Also the government has signalled its intention to delink the primary HDB market from the resale market in its effort to “tame the resale market”. Indeed the government has announced that it intends to lower BTO prices of new HDB flats in non-mature assets by pegging prices to about 4.4 times annual income or a reduction in BTO prices by around 30%.

    I brought my 4 room HDB in 1988 for 83,000 about 4.4 times but need to wait 7 yrs. Then in 1993 book a 5 room for 225,600 forget how many times, reason to sell and buy, resale is more than BTO, now gov peg BTO to 4.4 times it will wake up all the second timer

    This will likely have a knock-on effect on the resale market and eventually the private mass residential segment of the market. Another potential policy tweak which could have repercussions on the property market is the possible lifting of the income ceiling for public HDB flats.

    Those who can afford will go for the cherry than upgrade to private, this will increase the demand for public housing

    If this happens, some demand could be diverted away from the resale market. The Minister of National Development also recently hinted at the subsidies for EC should be lower than for primary HDB flats. This tweaking could have an impact on the property market as well.

    Cannot buy EC than buy private, who do they think is buying the penthouse

    http://sbr.com.sg/residential-proper...ats-are-lifted

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    Developers are holding off new launches last month, as they typically stagger launches of attractive projects over a period of time. Similarly, the buying momentum usually follows in tandem with new launches and would need some time to fully absorb existing projects available for sale, before moving on to other launches.

    Developers’ land bank depleted by robust sales

    http://fisheyer.com/2013/03/30/devel...-robust-sales/


    With an anticipated high number of upcoming project launches, especially developments at plum Government Land Sale (GLS) sites, buyers could be holding back their buying decision for now until a more attractive project is launched.

    CM7 most of them out of the game, those on the sideline waiting for CM8

    The buying frenzy last seen in March 2013 appears to have cooled off last month, following the government’s reaffirmation of no new cooling measures for now given that housing prices are generally moving in the intended direction.

    Got more time waiting at the sideline waiting for durian to drop and their age increase day,mths,years

    http://sbr.com.sg/residential-proper...d-off-in-april

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    As at Dec 2012, the proportion of foreign workers (excluding domestic workers) was 33.6%, compared to 32.8% in 2011.

    Given that the proportion is still above the 30% target threshold, the rate of increase in foreign workers is expected to slow further.

    We believe most of the tightening of labor will be in the services and construction sectors, which saw increases of 22,800 and 34,900 respectively in 2012.

    Lower inflows of imported labor will likely impact demand for rental properties going forward.

    http://sbr.com.sg/hr-education/news/...and-properties

    http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/...re/676132.html


    MBFC comprises three office towers, offering about three million square feet of office space - double of what's at Raffles Place.

    Singapore need more import labor for high pay job

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    Micro factors affecting property prices – Singapore property for rent/ sale

    Singapore property for rent/ sale – Micro factors affect the prices of the property more directly such as the location, tenure, age, physical attributes, environment and economic obsolescence. The micro factors affecting property prices are as follows:

    Location and location within location
    The single most important factor is the location because of the immobility of real property. Location is the key factor for buyers to consider before making their decision to buy or rent. For dwelling, a location within walking distance to school, market, shopping mall, bus stop, MRT station offer convenience and time saving. The selling price of such a property is usually higher than that of a poorer location. For a retailer, a location within a location, say a ground floor unit fronting main entrance is an important factor for human traffic, visibility and identification. The units on different floor and visibility come with different premium.

    Tenure
    Tenure is a very important factor that will affect the value of a property. Property with tenure of freehold status has a premium over leasehold, all else being equal.

    Age and condition
    A newer property may command a higher price compared to an older property which may require major renovation. A property that is in bad condition may have to be priced lower as a buyer will factor in the renovation cost into the offer price. Conversely, a well renovated property will be able to fetch a higher price compared to one without any renovation for Singapore property for rent/ sale.

    Design and quality of fixtures
    The design and quality of the fixtures including the layout of a property may have a impact on the value of the property especially luxurious properties designed to have a high class look and feel.

    Built-in area
    The built-in area refers to the floor area within a unit. A unit with larger area is obviously going to cost more than a smaller unit. A unit with more bedrooms is going to be more valuation than a unit with fewer bedrooms even though they are of the same size for Singapore property for rent/ sale.

    Height and view
    The height of a property is applicable more for a tall building such as a condominium. Generally, the higher the floor, the more expensive it is because of the commanding view.

    Orientation
    Orientation refers to the direction of the property facing. Generally buyers inSingaporedo not favour west facing because of the hot afternoon sun. Pool view, greenery and sea view units will generally have a higher value than their neighbour without such view. The value of properties facing a highway will be negatively impacted due to the noise. Singapore property for rent/ sale.

    Environment, accessibility and facilities
    Residential environment and neighborhood is a reflection of a person’s social status. Property prices in such high social status locations will tend to be much more expensive. Accessibility to highway, transportation, schools, main roads are generally preferred for Singapore property for rent/ sale. Condos or apartments with facilities such as tennis court, swimming pool and gym are generally preferred by buyers.

    Economic, Functional and Physical Obsolescence
    Economic Obsolescence occurs when the environment around the property changes and causes the value of the property to diminish e.g. change in zoning on neighboring land from residential to industrial.

    Functional Obsolescence refers to poor/outdated design, layout, size that are no longer popular resulting in a reduction in demand and value e.g. one toilet for a 3-bedroom apartment.

    Physical Obsolescence refers to a property that is deemed to be physically in a very bad shape and it would cost more to repair than rebuilt due to gross mismanagement and physical neglect.

    Influence of a corner
    For a residential property in Singapore property for rent/ sale, a corner unit may be more valuable because they have more opening for air and light. On the other hand, if it is located at a road junction, there may be more noise and air pollution due to heavier traffic thereby affecting its value. As for a commercial property, a corner unit at a road junction is usually more favourable because of higher traffic from two roads. The commercial property will be more prominent and the human traffic is higher.

    In the case of a plot of land, factors that can affect the value of the land are the size, shape, frontage, topography and soil condition as follows:

    Size
    The size of a lot is dependent on the width and depth. Generally, the wider or deeper is the side, the more valuable it is. Residential property normally prefers to have more depth unlike a retail shop which prefers more width to display their goods. For commercial properties, the space near the front is more valuable than the space at the back.

    Shape
    The shape of a lot affects the value of the lot. Generally, lots with odd or regular shapes are difficult to develop and would usually fetch a lower value compared to a lot of regular size. For example, a triangular plot may result in building with some odd corners, inefficient use of indoor floor space and an increase in construction costs for Singapore property for rent/ sale.

    Frontage
    The frontage of a lot usually refers to the boundary facing the road. If all things are equal, the wider is the frontage, the more valuable is the plot especially for commercial properties.

    Topography and soil condition
    The topography will affect the value of the lot. If it is very undulating, it would be more costly to have more refills and digging to make the surface regular. Hence, the value of the plot will be lower because it will cost more to develop. If it is a high ground, the value would be higher because it provides more scenic view and privacy.

    The condition of the soil will also affect the development costs. If the soil is unstable, deeper piles may have to be installed to support the building structure. The top soil will also affect the type of landscaping and the intensity of the drainage system to install on site. Singapore property for rent/ sale.
    Last edited by reporter2; 13-01-14 at 12:24.

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    http://blog.propertyguru.com.sg/8519...-impacted.html

    According to data provided to PropertyGuru by the HDB, there were approximately 50,700 HDB flats owned by PR households as of December 2012 – roughly five percent of the total supply. Of these, HDB said around 2,300 PR households sublet their whole flats.

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    Default What do QE got to do to Singapore property?

    Singapore home prices may shoot up further

    Singapore’s residential market remains busy, despite a less than rosy economic forecast with GDP growth trimmed to 2.4 percent this year, according to the latest report from Savills.
    Savills noted that the US government’s fresh round of quantitative easing (QE3) will likely push Singapore property prices up further.

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    Default What happen when US interest rate increase, if you think they can increase?

    The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) conducted a study that showed the relationship between SIBOR or interbank interest rate in Singapore and changes in the US interest rate, adjusted for the expected change in the Singapore-US Dollar exchange rate. While the US interest rate is not expected to spike suddenly, long term investors should be aware that interest rate may not remain at such historic lows perpetually, when the US exchange rate and interest rates change.

    http://singaporesiborwatch.com/singa...-in-singapore/

    http://clubs.ntu.edu.sg/rms/research...0Singapore.pdf

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    Default Potential drivers of the property market


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    Default Singapore property market outlook for 2012 and 2013


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    Quote Originally Posted by leesg123
    It depends, sell already, the replacement cost is very high.
    if everyone thinks the same then no one will be selling property in the resale market.

    transaction volume for 2010Q3 and 2010Q4, is around 9200 units per quarter, so we could be looking at additional 9k+ resale properties looking for buyers by end of the year.
    "Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    if everyone thinks the same then no one will be selling property in the resale market.

    transaction volume for 2010Q3 and 2010Q4, is around 9200 units per quarter, so we could be looking at additional 9k+ resale properties looking for buyers by end of the year.
    If i remember correctly, the CMs in place then was very meek to be honest. And re entry cost were low. That's why lately the resale volume is so low.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kane
    If i remember correctly, the CMs in place then was very meek to be honest. And re entry cost were low. That's why lately the resale volume is so low.
    Its definitely meek in today's standard but back then the property market was dominated by speculators, where people are flipping property like roti prata. Having said, SSD till today is still a big deterrent for speculators.

    People only talk about re entry cost when they have made profit from property, but for those who bought, loss or got stuck, re entry is perhaps the last thing of their mind.

    If you talking about resale transaction volume, it might be due to the lack of buyers not sellers.
    "Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."

  23. #23
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    i concur that buyers taking loans should treat it as a fixed form of savings & to do it earlier when one's earning capability is more substantial...

    the general consensus is that in our 20s we were encouraged to try various kind of jobs to ascertain where our strength lies, in our 30s we oughta be really good at what we do in our field of work, herewith lies the crucial segment of 40s going 50s where job change can be undesirable due to age/family/etc etc...

    our local society can be cruel attested by some peer's stories in return for high skyscrapers, financial haven, economic ranking we have so witnessed in the past 5-8 years.

    my post maybe not be so relevant to this thread but my few months of being on this forum has been tainted almost bothering of disgust by TS.

    i appreciate numerous comments, in-sights in this forum but i sense most are taking a backseat just watching TS go on with his multiple but mostly unnecessary/non-constructive postings...

    so TS will you just give us a break & let all look forward coming back to this platform...

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    People only talk about re entry cost when they have made profit from property, but for those who bought, loss or got stuck, re entry is perhaps the last thing of their mind.

    If you talking about resale transaction volume, it might be due to the lack of buyers not sellers.
    Those stuck one maybe we see this as an exit opportunity. But resale supply is definitely low. I have been monitoring a few resale projects for the past 3 years. Today's units for sale are half of what they were 2-3 years ago. I maybe be generalising but my agents seem to be confirmig my casual observations.

  25. #25
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    I don't see any point in selling although u already sitting on only 200k of profit until inflation / monetary growth is put under control

    everyday I go out ... my favourite food increases in prices

    same in China/India ... double chop confirmed

    China M2 grows 16% yoy in April ... Japan X2 in 2y .... SG M2 still growing like 9-10% yoy ... enough said

    And bear in mind the market is distorted... demand is artificially suppressed by so many CMs ... our HDB resale is very undervalued in China/India/HK/Indons standard

    Of course if your gearing ratio is high, lower a bit is ok
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    Default 2012 You're a Loser If You are Saving Robert Kiyosaki


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    In 2010 I watch the movie Money as debt. After watching I fly back to Singapore to get myself into more debt.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f6uuAupT4AQ

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    In order to crash the property market the gov need to remove all the CMs and encourage more borrowing. Those waiting need to go to the speaker corner to protest against the CMs because the CMs is preventing them from buying property and preventing the crash.

  29. #29
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    Default What is money?

    http://www.investopedia.com/articles.../03/061303.asp

    In 2011 the bank created 1.3 million from thin air for one customer and Billion for others...

    When US print 85 Billion a month under QE3 unlimited ever wonder why SGD to USD currency exchange is still the same?

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/afonteve...lls-below-6-5/

    You print I print everyone print.

    Still remember told to buy stamp and them deposit into POSB. Now just need to fill in the form and you get your money created out of thin air.
    Last edited by Arcachon; 21-05-13 at 01:50.

  30. #30
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    SSD turn 3 this month, so watch out for resale market Tsunami.

    8,700 shoebox units for resale from now to 2017

    Demand still strong despite an overall slow-moving resale market

    SINGAPORE] At least 8,700 shoebox units are expected to hit the resale market between now and 2017, as the Seller's Stamp Duty (SSD) lock-in period approaches expiry. While this figure is more than double the current completed shoebox residential stock of 3,472 units, signs in the market suggest that demand for such resale units remains relatively resilient amid a slow-moving overall resale market.

    This figure, revealed in the latest report from the Singapore Real Estate Exchange (SRX), is predicated on a first wave of at least 805 resale units - comprising units bought between Aug 30, 2010 and Jan 13, 2011 - and a second wave of at least 7,910 units entering the market from 2015 to 2017.
    It also assumed that the first wave of units would be sold in the fourth year of acquisition, which attracts a 4 per cent SSD.

    This is a reasonable assumption given that these units have, on average, achieved capital gains of around 30 per cent over the three-year SSD lock-in period, as shown by the SRX Property Index, which should overcome the SSD disincentive, noted SRX.

    As a proportion of the total number of units transacted in the overall resale market, the proportion of shoebox units transacted in the resale market has been steadily increasing, from about 0.4 per cent in the first nine months of 2009 (of 10,019 units transacted), to about 2.5 per cent this year (of 5,550 units transacted).

    While the proportion of resale shoebox units versus the overall resale market is increasing, this must be viewed in the context of an increasing supply of shoebox units entering the market, pointed out Ku Swee Yong, chief executive officer of Century 21 Singapore Holdings.

    Indeed, part of the shoebox resale trend is attributable to the substantial number of new shoebox homes sold between 2009 and August 2010, which totalled some 2,239 units.

    Looking at the investment viability of shoebox units, in the face of what some consultants have considered a potential oversupply situation, Alan Cheong, head of research at Savills Singapore posited that the picture was one of relative undersupply.

    On the supply side, assuming that units sold in 2009 have since received their Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP), there are some 10,076 units that have been sold and will be ready for occupation between now and 2016.

    Including 2013's annualised sales figures, some 10,674 units are expected to receive their TOP in coming years. This translates to an average of 2,668 shoebox units being completed annually, between 2014 and 2017.
    On the demand side, while the number of non-citizens entering Singapore has averaged 71,500 per annum historically, this dropped to 60,200 last year.

    Using 2012's figure as a guide - given the more stringent controls over the admission of foreign workers in the past year - and adopting an ultra-conservative assumption that only 30 per cent of them are employment pass (EP) holders with a family of three, the number of EP head of households comes to 6,020 persons.

    Said Mr Cheong: "Anecdotally, we find that a significant number of the new EP holders are singles with constrained rental budgets, and some not even given any housing allowance. Hence, it is only logical to deduce that they will either rent HDB flats or shoeboxes."

    Discounting this figure by another 50 per cent, the number of incoming singles is at least 3,010 per year.

    "Some may argue that not all singles or couples who can afford to rent shoeboxes will take one," conceded Mr Cheong. "However, we can reduce the likelihood of these permutations because we can infer that with the tightened immigration policy, shoeboxes could be the preferred choice for this group of non-residents."

    The reason, he explained, is that it is very likely that a foreigner who has been granted an EP would have a non-indigenous skillset, which then implies that they have a salary that is high enough to afford renting a shoebox rather than going for a HDB flat.

    "With the URA limiting the average size of a unit in a residential development to 70 square metres, the supply of shoeboxes is expected to fall from these numbers we have seen in recent years. Therefore, although gross yield of shoeboxes has been falling over time, with this picture of relative undersupply, total returns (both rental and price appreciation) should still be well supported."
    "Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."

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