Will there be an over supply in 3 years time?

[CCR]

Forummers....

Buyer insatiable appetite for new condos are quite scary...

Do you think there will be empty condos in 3 years time?

Since all of us now have a place to stay, who will stay in these newly completed condos?

[star]

Iskandar is even more scary.

[price]

Forummers....

Buyer insatiable appetite for new condos are quite scary...

Do you think there will be empty condos in 3 years time?

Since all of us now have a place to stay, who will stay in these newly completed condos?

6.9million

[lifeline]

6.9million

all those vested will have to agree. see which group is larger. seems like the snowball is becoming larger and larger.

[Kelonguni]

Only smarties have the answer!

[lionhill]

shouldn't this question be asked 10 more years ago? at that time, more than 80% families own property liao.

[thomaspaine]

Forummers....

Buyer insatiable appetite for new condos are quite scary...

Do you think there will be empty condos in 3 years time?

Since all of us now have a place to stay, who will stay in these newly completed condos?

When I started work 20y ago , my boss was a big property bear n this was the same rationale that he would repeated warn us about.

We would frequently hear his usual rhetoric about the many new apartments springing up n how the market can find enough buyers.

[Kelonguni]

When I started work 20y ago , my boss was a big property bear n this was the same rationale that he would repeated warn us about.

We would frequently hear his usual rhetoric about the many new apartments springing up n how the market can find enough buyers.

They forget to count that the population increases by 100,000 every year. All fully grown adults directly imported.

Since 20 years ago, this has been the case.

Where will they stay?

[CCR]

Those who knows me, know that i am fully vested...

But looking at 16k condos springing up each year for the last 3 years is quite scary....

and the buyers are all buying new homes.... not completed yet... if they are buying completed units i am ok. but new units means another 50k units coming up in 2015....

where to find 150k people to stay?

[kane]

this is a similar question i am trying to get my head around.

[Kelonguni]

The exact number of homes built is 197,559, to be completed over 4 years from 2013-2016.

2013 is the last year of low supply, merely 30,000 units in total, before the floodgates are opened from 2014 (50,000 to 60,000 every year till 2016)

http://www.h88.com.sg/article/Khaw+B...oming+by+2016/

While the numbers seem huge, scrutinising the numbers above carefully, you will find that the bulk is actually public housing, mainly BTOs in which the Govt builds only when there is a certain level of demand. The areas in which demand is questionable are the ECs and Private, which represent about 20,000 annually.

If one wishes to capture the overall total possible demand, he should look through the stats below:

http://www.singstat.gov.sg/statistics/latest_data.html

In particular, note the changes in marriage rates and divorce rates, and ponder their implications on the overall demand for housing. Some other stats worth considering are the resident population structure (not indicative of total workforce). Still other issues that are useful will be to consider the number of people that will come in annually to make the population grow to 6.9 million in 2030. On average, that's 100,000 every year. Maybe some years more, some years less. We cannot run away from the inevitable. Based on the data sets, we expect more influx from 2014 onwards. Will that happen? Let's wait and see.

Lastly, we would have to consider the total number of units being enbloc-ed or under SERS. Unfortunately, the data is not very well documented here, but some indications are provided below and you can refer to the en-bloc section of the forum to gauge how many units are taken off market. Unfortunately, we are not totally sure how the total number of units to be built is computed, so we can't be very sure whether it considers the en-bloc or SERS proportion.

http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10329p....s?OpenDocument

In conclusion, I have full trust in the capabilities of MND (especially under Mr Khaw) to match supply and demand closely. 2015-2016 are the years for GE, so something will come up from now till then to make everybody (owners and non-owners happy). Just what is it? If I knew, I will probably have qualified to buy two units of $10-million condos for my children!

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/prope...-over-10m-each

[starrynight]

Thanks for the well thought out views. 1 question to help me understand - these numbers we see, are they based on the "theoretical" expected TOP, or the realistic one (which is often almost 1 year earlier)? If the latter, then the deluge is more likely in 2014 than 2015?

The exact number of homes built is 197,559, to be completed over 4 years from 2013-2016.

2013 is the last year of low supply, merely 30,000 units in total, before the floodgates are opened from 2014 (50,000 to 60,000 every year till 2016)

http://www.h88.com.sg/article/Khaw+B...oming+by+2016/

While the numbers seem huge, scrutinising the numbers above carefully, you will find that the bulk is actually public housing, mainly BTOs in which the Govt builds only when there is a certain level of demand. The areas in which demand is questionable are the ECs and Private, which represent about 20,000 annually.

If one wishes to capture the overall total possible demand, he should look through the stats below:

http://www.singstat.gov.sg/statistics/latest_data.html

In particular, note the changes in marriage rates and divorce rates, and ponder their implications on the overall demand for housing. Some other stats worth considering are the resident population structure (not indicative of total workforce). Still other issues that are useful will be to consider the number of people that will come in annually to make the population grow to 6.9 million in 2030. On average, that's 100,000 every year. Maybe some years more, some years less. We cannot run away from the inevitable. Based on the data sets, we expect more influx from 2014 onwards. Will that happen? Let's wait and see.

Lastly, we would have to consider the total number of units being enbloc-ed or under SERS. Unfortunately, the data is not very well documented here, but some indications are provided below and you can refer to the en-bloc section of the forum to gauge how many units are taken off market. Unfortunately, we are not totally sure how the total number of units to be built is computed, so we can't be very sure whether it considers the en-bloc or SERS proportion.

http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10329p....s?OpenDocument

In conclusion, I have full trust in the capabilities of MND (especially under Mr Khaw) to match supply and demand closely. 2015-2016 are the years for GE, so something will come up from now till then to make everybody (owners and non-owners happy). Just what is it? If I knew, I will probably have qualified to buy two units of $10-million condos for my children!

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/prope...-over-10m-each

[yjcai]

Don't think so much. It all boils down to whether developers want to sell you cheap when their balance sheet has insanely amt of cash. >50% chance we are nowhere near the peak or signs of trouble. KBW may have his soft landing, too much to lose if he can't do it.

[DKSG]

Thanks for the well thought out views. 1 question to help me understand - these numbers we see, are they based on the "theoretical" expected TOP, or the realistic one (which is often almost 1 year earlier)? If the latter, then the deluge is more likely in 2014 than 2015?

Developers must submit the estimated TOP on a quarterly (I think) basis to URA.

The question of over supply has been answered by the government. The magic number is 6.9.

From my Office Boy perspective, what I can see is a gradual increase in the number of expats in my office ... Not to mention other offices around my buildings where new MNCs are being brought in every now and then.

If we want to talk about over supply, actually, the over supply situation is supposed to be NOW! in the run up of the 2007-2008, there have been a lot of speculation that there will be super over supply by 2013 and now what happens ?

There are many people sold their every thing including their home and renting out there in the market. These are demand waiting at the sidelines and they are slowly but certainly buying into the market when they do not see any significant drop in the next 6 months. The CMs have delayed their decisions for a while hoping for a big drop then they profit from other people. But sad (to them) to say, it has continued to rise.

This has created a lot of anxiety - like what Mr Quek says - if you dont buy today, you must be prepared to pay more tomorrow!

DKSG

[starrynight]

Thanks! I guess there is a change in the type of foreigners they are bringing in then.

Cos what I hear recently from ex colleagues in an IT company (take with a pinch of salt) are:

a. some non-PR foreigners who hold the various types of work visas are "downgraded" by 1 level of work visa when they renew; for some of them, their spouses can no longer work in Singapore as a result of the "downgrade"

b. former PRs who leave Singapore have had their work visa applications rejected, and told in not so many words not to bother appealing

Developers must submit the estimated TOP on a quarterly (I think) basis to URA.

The question of over supply has been answered by the government. The magic number is 6.9.

From my Office Boy perspective, what I can see is a gradual increase in the number of expats in my office ... Not to mention other offices around my buildings where new MNCs are being brought in every now and then.

If we want to talk about over supply, actually, the over supply situation is supposed to be NOW! in the run up of the 2007-2008, there have been a lot of speculation that there will be super over supply by 2013 and now what happens ?

There are many people sold their every thing including their home and renting out there in the market. These are demand waiting at the sidelines and they are slowly but certainly buying into the market when they do not see any significant drop in the next 6 months. The CMs have delayed their decisions for a while hoping for a big drop then they profit from other people. But sad (to them) to say, it has continued to rise.

This has created a lot of anxiety - like what Mr Quek says - if you dont buy today, you must be prepared to pay more tomorrow!

DKSG

[Kelonguni]

Developers must submit the estimated TOP on a quarterly (I think) basis to URA.

The question of over supply has been answered by the government. The magic number is 6.9.

From my Office Boy perspective, what I can see is a gradual increase in the number of expats in my office ... Not to mention other offices around my buildings where new MNCs are being brought in every now and then.

If we want to talk about over supply, actually, the over supply situation is supposed to be NOW! in the run up of the 2007-2008, there have been a lot of speculation that there will be super over supply by 2013 and now what happens ?

There are many people sold their every thing including their home and renting out there in the market. These are demand waiting at the sidelines and they are slowly but certainly buying into the market when they do not see any significant drop in the next 6 months. The CMs have delayed their decisions for a while hoping for a big drop then they profit from other people. But sad (to them) to say, it has continued to rise.

This has created a lot of anxiety - like what Mr Quek says - if you dont buy today, you must be prepared to pay more tomorrow!

DKSG

I don't fully subscribe to the view that it will keep going up though. Household incomes are not increasing that fast, even for expats. There is a strong price support that is also sensitive to changes in interest rates. People are willing to buy, but when it hits their abilities to buy, the story might change.

[DKSG]

Thanks! I guess there is a change in the type of foreigners they are bringing in then.

Cos what I hear recently from ex colleagues in an IT company (take with a pinch of salt) are:

a. some non-PR foreigners who hold the various types of work visas are "downgraded" by 1 level of work visa when they renew; for some of them, their spouses can no longer work in Singapore as a result of the "downgrade"

b. former PRs who leave Singapore have had their work visa applications rejected, and told in not so many words not to bother appealing

Yes! Thanks for bringing this up. Just a clarifications that when my office says expat, it means monthly pay of no less than 20K Euros. We dont bring in anyone lesser than that unless it is an exceptional case.

Singapore is slowly trying to get rid of those HDB renters kinda of foreigners. HDB rentals should slow down in the near future.

This will help those HDB folks who say they must rent out to foreigners to help ease the rental market, now they can have the whole unit to themselves!

DKSG

[Kelonguni]

Thanks! I guess there is a change in the type of foreigners they are bringing in then.

Cos what I hear recently from ex colleagues in an IT company (take with a pinch of salt) are:

a. some non-PR foreigners who hold the various types of work visas are "downgraded" by 1 level of work visa when they renew; for some of them, their spouses can no longer work in Singapore as a result of the "downgrade"

b. former PRs who leave Singapore have had their work visa applications rejected, and told in not so many words not to bother appealing

We are going for the increasingly higher calibre workers who command more to grow the economy. So it's likely the ones you were referring to are the ones that were being phased out.

[DKSG]

I don't fully subscribe to the view that it will keep going up though. Household incomes are not increasing that fast, even for expats. There is a strong price support that is also sensitive to changes in interest rates. People are willing to buy, but when it hits their abilities to buy, the story might change.

I mentioned this in another post.

The Hard Truth is, household income IS increasing at a very good rate - if you consider the "new" citizens/PRs - the PRCs and the Indians. Only the local's pay is not catching up.

And as a result, certain classes of locals are now "downgraded". In the past, if people are in the class of $8K-$10K. Maybe they belong to the entry level PC class. But now with more and more household earning more than $20K, this group sudden becomes "PC not eligible".

This is a Hard Truth of of immigration policy which not many people can understand. So they can only wonder why our property prices keep going up but our pay seems like the same!

Also, in the last 5 years, there are many people like those in this forum, whose income (property) has shot up significantly and thus becomes the new rich! Office Boy also managed to upgrade from RCR to CCR thanks to those rich US citizens who bought my previous apartment at record price !

DKSG

[Ringo33]

In conclusion, I have full trust in the capabilities of MND (especially under Mr Khaw) to match supply and demand closely. 2015-2016 are the years for GE, so something will come up from now till then to make everybody (owners and non-owners happy). Just what is it? If I knew, I will probably have qualified to buy two units of $10-million condos for my children!

supply is easy to quantify and control, it is the demand side that MND usually have problem to predict and control.

[Kelonguni]

I mentioned this in another post.

The Hard Truth is, household income IS increasing at a very good rate - if you consider the "new" citizens/PRs - the PRCs and the Indians. Only the local's pay is not catching up.

And as a result, certain classes of locals are now "downgraded". In the past, if people are in the class of $8K-$10K. Maybe they belong to the entry level PC class. But now with more and more household earning more than $20K, this group sudden becomes "PC not eligible".

This is a Hard Truth of of immigration policy which not many people can understand. So they can only wonder why our property prices keep going up but our pay seems like the same!

Also, in the last 5 years, there are many people like those in this forum, whose income (property) has shot up significantly and thus becomes the new rich! Office Boy also managed to upgrade from RCR to CCR thanks to those rich US citizens who bought my previous apartment at record price !

DKSG

There is indeed a lot of liquidity and the game is good now. But really no guarantee the party is going to last forever. Can you guarantee the same pay growth going forward?

In some ways, we can also say that office boy can afford CCR because of the dip in price right? Can anything be guaranteed?

[CCR]

Thanks for all your perspective.... I have my conclusion now!

No Over supply! here's why:

For BTO supply i am not so worried coz MOP will ensure that there are no supply in the market till 2018 earliest so we worry about that later...

For PC supply of 20k per year.... i guess we need to bring in "new residents" not conversion of PR to citizen ah! of at least 60k per year which i think its possible...

And in these past 10 years, our population grew by 1m, let say only 30% is white collar higher income type foreigner.... thats 200k, they will need 50k units of PC to house them?

So I guess there will be no over supply as the 20k unit per year will be used to ease the past shortage and prepare for the influx of at least 40k "new" residents per year?

Fair statement?

Oops! another thought just flew into my mind.... IF there is a shortage these past 10 years then where are are these residents staying at? but we have not been building any PC in big scale.... so where they go stay ah?

OMG another big puzzle....

[mcmlxxvi]

A lot of them jointly rent a single condo apartment currently. And im talking white collar professionals.

Most if not all have hopes of buying their own pc eventually.

Those that dont intend to, make the money and go home or buy houses in their homelands.

[yowetan]

Hi...stock market is in RED zone now. Property market has the time phase lag of 06 months.

Please thread with cautious in property. Crash is imminent.

[mygeemeel]

Hi...stock market is in RED zone now. Property market has the time phase lag of 06 months.

Please thread with cautious in property. Crash is imminent.

There you go again Mr Yowetan. You talk like an expert but on the other hand you have fantasy of housing 9 pax in a 2 bedder condo which you can never afford even if it falls. You need Trizon to fall by s$1m. Will stock crash bring you the s$1m !?!?

Before you give irresponsible statement, pls back it up with data. Don't expect others to feed you with info and data. Don't be lazy.

[yowetan]

There you go again Mr Yowetan. You talk like an expert but on the other hand you have fantasy of housing 9 pax in a 2 bedder condo which you can never afford even if it falls. You need Trizon to fall by s$1m. Will stock crash bring you the s$1m !?!?

Before you give irresponsible statement, pls back it up with data. Don't expect others to feed you with info and data. Don't be lazy.

Hi...I think it is possible for Trizon to be corrected to 1mil SGD approximately from 1.8mil SGD at the moment.

It has been three days in a row of correction in global stock markets. I would expect more to come next week.

I am pretty relax these days in back office as none of my clients are buying shares.

[ysyap]

In terms of numbers, there shouldn't be much concern.... MND is doing OT to get the numbers right, from BTO to land parcel sales, all is within control and calculated with probably a view to slight oversupply (read it from the papers last year). This slight oversupply caters not only to eventuality but also to stabilize/reduce the stubborn housing prices that developers are not relenting yet.

If there is a hiccup and the demand suddenly surge for whatever reason, there is still that slight buffer. If on the other hand, demand suddenly falls drastically, they can always open the FT tap big time and explain nicely to our extremely accommodating citizens of the dire need to do that and all is well again.

My biggest concern is the problem created by the other end of the spectrum, aka developers. They are controlling the price game very well, sending out various signals that prices are still strong (heard lots of news from forummers here and seen how prices are holding strongly everywhere by developers). Like what someone mentioned, our kids will have to contend with $1.5mil 4 room HDB and $3mil 3 bedder PC or $5mil 2400sqft landed (leasehold) in the next 20 years. Don't think income will climb that quickly. How to afford?

[radha08]

is the glass half empty or half full

[kane]

Intetesting point on the implications of divorces. I have thought about the marriage angle but not from the separation angle.

[DKSG]

Hi...I think it is possible for Trizon to be corrected to 1mil SGD approximately from 1.8mil SGD at the moment.

It has been three days in a row of correction in global stock markets. I would expect more to come next week.

I am pretty relax these days in back office as none of my clients are buying shares.

When stock market move from 2,900 points to 3,500 points, how come the property market didnt move up 20% ?

So, only down trend will affect property market ?

Your views are pathetic, childish at best. Reflect on your inability to secure a decent job with a questionable degree. It is also a reason why you are always living in a fantasy.

I can only pray for your parents and in-laws that they will not end up selling tissue paper in hawker centres after you sucked them dry of all their coffin money.

DKSG