there are reasons why i remain optimistic and here is what i would share with those who are willing to be open... this is purely based on my own analysis and if you think im talking nonsense, just share your views. it would help those who are on the sideline to think deeper...i'm not trying to ask u to plunge in without thinking. whether u should over leverage, or should buy more, or to leave the market, its all your decision....(disclaimer)Originally Posted by lajia
Bro, if u are not affected by CMs, cash out 1 and buy another cheaper one for rental is correct..., 100% agreeable. But if not, then the ABSD could cost u 2-3yrs of rental... if u are confident of substantial capital increase within the next 2-3 yrs, this approach is still ok...
Otherwise, here's my take for next 3 yrs. this is how I see...
1) while interest might be low, but due to the CMs, and slowing mkt with substantial increase in supply, u should be able to afford waiting for 1 yr. rather than pay ABSD and wasted your rental...as your rental would be offset by ABSD.
2) while many analysts shouting for interest rate increase, I still think we should be safe till 2015 or even beyond. We are into era that we have never experience before for the globe. >>>slow economic growth with prolong high unemployment in Europe & US. China will definitely be slowing as well but with ASEAN increasing number of middle class and spending, we should be cushioned...
3) if by 2014 mid and garmen still have not lift the ABSD, please consider to plunge into the mkt....
the effect of AEC in 2015 could be overwhelming the supply. By then, it maybe another cheong time that those MTB will continue to be on the sideline. Why? Many should hv accumulate enough ammo during the last 3-4yrs and cannoth wait any longer while the next factor comes from liberalizing of trade, service & HR...
4) 4key locations would benefits.....
Just my opinion....
To be continue...
1) first of all, prudence is the key in this market and also the sluggishness actually allow those first timer, with cash on hand to act. i mentioned earlier, as we expect slow moving market, you can still afford to wait till mid 2014 whereby we need to observe for more clues before making decision. garmen has use CM to pause the market and what u should observe is, when some key CMs are lifted....end 2014??
2) when we enter into 2015, what will happen? I think over supply is whats on most of your mind...many BTOs, ppl selling their HDB because their EC TOPs, many activities it seems....so if there is lesser demand, what will happen? only sellers??
3) again, what happen in 2015? we enter into the beginning phase of AEC. What about this AEC? many many challenges, it might take donkey years to transform into what it was intended to be but at least immediately, we can see some impacts >>> Free flow of labour, skilled workers across asean countries, attraction of talents into competitive markets, boost GDP, increase expenditure from increasing middle class income level, huge influx of ppl and so on....if you are in indon, Thai or Phil, where will u go? Of course, Singapore is not good in everything but for sure, Banking, Chemical, Pharma, Medical, Logistic and many more....will be consolidated here because put it this way, in terms of talent attraction, we win, but when it comes to low cost labour, agriculture, manufacturing, we lose...
looking at the middle class influx to Sin due to better pay prospect, higher value chain services, how does the residential market looks like now? does it brighten your day...
4) but i think, garmen is clever, why? even when they know we will lose manufacturing, they keep it very near to us, and so that we will also boost our distribution and logistic hub, and also keep the MNC with HQ continue to operate here providing service at higher level of the value chain.
5) so what do you think of Iskandar and how will it look like in next few years and out of the total population there, what percentage does low cost labour make up to? who will be there? ...your guess is as good as mine...
why we need to connect mrt to JB, improve transport in Iskandar? for who? low cost labour? who would need to use the mrt more?
6) back to the influx of middle income class. the key question is, when they come over, where do they stay? are they like expat from US, Europe or Japan? Or they are actually not send by their companies but rather, with qualification, they are just here to look for higher pay career? just imagine.
now we are not talking about the rich class who is free to move anywhere, anytime and buying CCR. we are talking about middle income class.
7) these influx of ppl, will be able to help out in the rental market, and will also be able to eat up part of the supply. they will stay where their jobs are. which areas?
8) how's the prospect of OCR? What about CCR??
9) CM should be removed so as to moderate the demand and supply, when? maybe end 2014? so if it happen, take this additional 1 yr for you to accumulate your bullets before u decided to whack ...
enough for now....not here to talk up or talk down the market but just to trigger some thinking and hopefully some of you can share and we learn from there. again, above is just my personal opinion
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