If u sell now, how much must property prices drop before it is worth it to go back in

[chestnut]

So assume 2 scenarios,

1. 2 properties
If u sell 1 away, how much must property prices drop before it is worth it to go back in????

2. 3 properties and above
If u sell 1 away and left with 2 or more, how much must property prices drop before it is worth to go back in????

Of course u can say they will remove absd... But how many % u think it needs to drop before absd is removed????

Do u think
1. drop 7%, govt will remove absd
2. Drop 10%, govt will remove absd
3. Drop 15%, govt will remove absd

If they don't remove absd, then at what % u think worth it to go back in??? Do u think u can still qualify with the new rule??? How many year loan u can take???

Many question here for you to do simulation....

Cheers....

Food for thought.... No rite or wrong answer, only u know if u can still play....



You guys can put in other scenarios....



Then we discuss....

[RCT]

Removing ABSD is one thing... First time is SSD to consider first ba... If really need to sell now due to crash... Imagine the high SSD of you just bought recently?

[Arcachon]

Singapore property will crash because.

1. We have 8 Control measure.
2. Singapore land is limited.
3. Since the QE (printing of money) our SGD is getting stronger.
4. We have build too much infrastructure.
5. Singapore economic cannot be maintain due to aging population and low birth rate.
6. Lot of people is migrating to other country.

[Arcachon]

[lot286]

Singapore property will crash because.

1. We have 8 Control measure. -> 8 times and prices still going up.?
2. Singapore land is limited. -> I dont understand your argument
3. Since the QE (printing of money) our SGD is getting stronger. -> Currency appreciation has nothing to do with property prices.
4. We have build too much infrastructure. -> Please show proof
5. Singapore economic cannot be maintain due to aging population and low birth rate. ->Ok this part i understand, but other countries are aging faster
6. Lot of people is migrating to other country.

-> and more people wanting to migrate to Singapore.

I Do not understand your arguments at all, my counterarguments in red

[Allthepies]

The only valid reason why property falls is due to Newton's gravitational law..

[lot286]

the only reason why property prices in Singapore will fall is due to Global Market conditions. Mark my words - and see how accurate i am if stock mkts globally fall 50% in the next 5 years.

[dare2]

the only reason why property prices in Singapore will fall is due to Global Market conditions. Mark my words - and see how accurate i am if stock mkts globally fall 50% in the next 5 years.

If Sg property collapse...what about your Ledang height bungalow?

[stl67]

If there is no reason to sell, for me the best is keep until I go inside coffin.

My onli regret is I nvr hoot more landed last time.

But we need to give others MTB a chance also...

[Arcachon]

1. We have 8 Control measure. -> 8 times and prices still going up.?
2. Singapore land is limited. -> I dont understand your argument (We need to buy sand to increase the land size, this cost SGD)
3. Since the QE (printing of money) our SGD is getting stronger. -> Currency appreciation has nothing to do with property prices.(Will you buy a property and your property price in the country inflated)
4. We have build too much infrastructure. -> Please show proof (Infrastructure cost SGD to build and do you think the land will become cheaper)
5. Singapore economic cannot be maintain due to aging population and low birth rate. ->Ok this part i understand, but other countries are aging faster( Where on Earth do the country allow their manpower to be use when they are able and take care of them when they are old.)
6. Lot of people is migrating to other country.(LKY cry on TV twice, one when we are kick out of Malaysia and another when lot of Singaporean migrated0

[mcmlxxvi]

When property price drops, absd removal add together must be at least 20% to make re entry feasible given loan tenure restriction which together with tdsr is classified as long term measure that will stay for good.

[chestnut]

When property price drops, absd removal add together must be at least 20% to make re entry feasible given loan tenure restriction which together with tdsr is classified as long term measure that will stay for good.

Brudder, so property price drop say 10% to 13%, than absd removed to add to 20% leh... U reckon drop 10 - 13%, will absd be removed???

So if drop 10-13% and absd not removed, still cannot go in leh... May even lose money....

[mcmlxxvi]

Brudder, so property price drop say 10% to 13%, than absd removed to add to 20% leh... U reckon drop 10 - 13%, will absd be removed???

Hmmm... doesnt seem so plausible hor... must drop at least 20% then. Absd peeling add on ontop.

But i think they will be using trend of defaults to gauge leh....or is this only for crisis time??

[phantom_opera]

for long term ... u have to read Lee Kuan Yew's speech and bet whether his son's capitalism is any different from him

for short to medium term, anything can happen

[smartboy2]

Singapore property will crash because.

1. We have 8 Control measure.
2. Singapore land is limited.
3. Since the QE (printing of money) our SGD is getting stronger.
4. We have build too much infrastructure.
5. Singapore economic cannot be maintain due to aging population and low birth rate.
6. Lot of people is migrating to other country.

Doesnt make any sense.

[chestnut]

Hmmm... doesnt seem so plausible hor... must drop at least 20% then. Absd peeling add on ontop.

But i think they will be using trend of defaults to gauge leh....or is this only for crisis time??

Brudder, let me share with u something... A lot of Singaporeans damn rich man... Really, the bank account damn gao gao....

Don't forget still got bsd and lawyer fee....

Selling is not an issue, getting back in is the issue.... The other way round is downsizing lor, then u pay less tax....

Bro, during crisis time, everything will drop leh.... I really don't see crisis within this 2 yr leh.... US still not back so solid. Europe still down leh....

Bro, if don't have the 'prevention absd cm', I don't mind cashing out a few... But the cm put a brake on increase, so I really cannot convince myself that there is a bubble leh....

[lot286]

1. We have 8 Control measure. -> 8 times and prices still going up.?
2. Singapore land is limited. -> I dont understand your argument (We need to buy sand to increase the land size, this cost SGD)
3. Since the QE (printing of money) our SGD is getting stronger. -> Currency appreciation has nothing to do with property prices.(Will you buy a property and your property price in the country inflated)
4. We have build too much infrastructure. -> Please show proof (Infrastructure cost SGD to build and do you think the land will become cheaper)
5. Singapore economic cannot be maintain due to aging population and low birth rate. ->Ok this part i understand, but other countries are aging faster( Where on Earth do the country allow their manpower to be use when they are able and take care of them when they are old.)
6. Lot of people is migrating to other country.(LKY cry on TV twice, one when we are kick out of Malaysia and another when lot of Singaporean migrated0

Ok. i have no clue what you are talking about here. I dont think we are on the same bandwidth.

Bottom line. The fortunes of Singapore market (stock market and property values) is beholden to global market fortunes. This is a known fact. We are one of the most open economies in the world and our fate depends on countries like US, EUrope, China..etc.

My argument is that it will be external pressures that will knock valuations down in Singapore, not internal. Whatever we have seen now CM XX and other arguments that you posed, are internal pressures, small compared to changing macro landscape.

[star]

China also not solid. Last time before crash SSE was 6000.

[mcmlxxvi]

Brudder, let me share with u something... A lot of Singaporeans damn rich man... Really, the bank account damn gao gao....

Don't forget still got bsd and lawyer fee....

Selling is not an issue, getting back in is the issue.... The other way round is downsizing lor, then u pay less tax....

Bro, during crisis time, everything will drop leh.... I really don't see crisis within this 2 yr leh.... US still not back so solid. Europe still down leh....

Bro, if don't have the 'prevention absd cm', I don't mind cashing out a few... But the cm put a brake on increase, so I really cannot convince myself that there is a bubble leh....

There is no bubble la. Just that property investment suck up a lot of liquidity vs other instruments I think, now every tom dick and harry wanna buy property....

Like many bros say before... sell only if u are sure u can put the money to better use. This may be diff for diff people...

Some spend on lavish holidays
Some spend on cosmetic surgery
Some spend on cars
Some spend on their loved ones
Some punt stocks n shares
Some splurge big on cashino
Some go and buy foreign properties
and some, hoping for the next crash... it will come... but when?

Better to plan within what you know with high certainty than the mostly unknown.

[lot286]

The fact of the matter is, coming back to Chestnut's original thread question is..

Yes, the government will reduce ABSD, for sure, if property market starts to weaken rapidly. In fact, they will do all sorts of things in a crisis scenario to prevent property valuation from coming down too low, too fast.

Take the example of what the FED and the US government did during the US financial crisis (08-09). They nationalized Fannie Mae + Freddie Mac, used the FED to intervene in MBS (mortgage back securities), allowed troubled banks to sell their depressed loans to govenrment agencies as collateral.

In the worst case scenario, if property valuations > -50%, mark my word - they may even nationalize companies like capitaland, etc because these are flagship economic entities of Singapore. But will we go there, probably not.

With regards to ABSD -> keep in mind, this is a measure undertaken by the government in a very delayed manner after prices have gone up.

I will think that reduction of ABSD will also happen in a delayed manner.

Question is, how to time this? Impossible. You probably have better luck timing in buying a stock then to time a government measure.

In M'sia, they did the same thing towards foreigners (quota). During the late 1990s when everyone was rushing into M'sia they reduced the quota drastically. But did they start increasing the quota when prices have bottomed? No.

What i am trying to say is, your expectation of ABSD timing is irrelevant. You are much better off in timing your entry price. Whether the government is on your side at that time, no one can predict.

[phantom_opera]

China also not solid. Last time before crash SSE was 6000.

i am waiting to buy .. accumulating

[chestnut]

Bro, if investor is not financially savvy, the best investment is property... Slow and steady..l, tenant pay for unit leh....

Financial can be nerve racking... Look at Citibank - from 50+ to 1 and today 5 (actual price is 50 because of reverse split)...

Imagine your 100k now become 10k...

Look at keppeland, peak @ about 8 if I remember, today 3.6
Of course got right issue lar...

For those not savvy, I really pity them... But I bot keppeland when it hit 1.5 leh... Hahahahahaha. During the crisis, managed to pick up some bargains....

There is no bubble la. Just that property investment suck up a lot of liquidity vs other instruments I think, now every tom dick and harry wanna buy property....

Like many bros say before... sell only if u are sure u can put the money to better use. This may be diff for diff people...

Some spend on lavish holidays
Some spend on cosmetic surgery
Some spend on cars
Some spend on their loved ones
Some punt stocks n shares
Some splurge big on cashino
Some go and buy foreign properties
and some, hoping for the next crash... it will come... but when?

Better to plan within what you know with high certainty than the mostly unknown.

[mcmlxxvi]

Bro lot286...i like ur avatar. It is my favorite animal.

[mcmlxxvi]

Bro, if investor is not financially savvy, the best investment is property... Slow and steady..l, tenant pay for unit leh....

Financial can be nerve racking... Look at Citibank - from 50+ to 1 and today 5 (actual price is 50 because of reverse split)...

Imagine your 100k now become 10k...

Look at keppeland, peak @ about 8 if I remember, today 3.6
Of course got right issue lar...

For those not savvy, I really pity them... But I bot keppeland when it hit 1.5 leh... Hahahahahaha. During the crisis, managed to pick up some bargains....

Dont look back too much, if i may suggest.... look forward more to move forward.

Gaily forward and out. Nitez

[chestnut]

Ok, so if absd not removed, @ what % will u go in????

Just curious????

The fact of the matter is, coming back to Chestnut's original thread question is..

Yes, the government will reduce ABSD, for sure, if property market starts to weaken rapidly. In fact, they will do all sorts of things in a crisis scenario to prevent property valuation from coming down too low, too fast.

Take the example of what the FED and the US government did during the US financial crisis (08-09). They nationalized Fannie Mae + Freddie Mac, used the FED to intervene in MBS (mortgage back securities), allowed troubled banks to sell their depressed loans to govenrment agencies as collateral.

In the worst case scenario, if property valuations > -50%, mark my word - they may even nationalize companies like capitaland, etc because these are flagship economic entities of Singapore. But will we go there, probably not.

With regards to ABSD -> keep in mind, this is a measure undertaken by the government in a very delayed manner after prices have gone up.

I will think that reduction of ABSD will also happen in a delayed manner.

Question is, how to time this? Impossible. You probably have better luck timing in buying a stock then to time a government measure.

In M'sia, they did the same thing towards foreigners (quota). During the late 1990s when everyone was rushing into M'sia they reduced the quota drastically. But did they start increasing the quota when prices have bottomed? No.

What i am trying to say is, your expectation of ABSD timing is irrelevant. You are much better off in timing your entry price. Whether the government is on your side at that time, no one can predict.

[chestnut]

Dont look back too much, if i may suggest.... look forward more to move forward.

Gaily forward and out. Nitez

I use history to help me see the future....

Me already invested quite a fair bit in US market and some other instrument...

Goodnite.

[Arcachon]

Don't need ABSD removed, Don't need % drop, just loan money to me I will go in.

[chestnut]

Don't need ABSD removed, just loan money to me I will go in.

Brudder, I agree... Many people I know now cannot go in because of loan issue leh.....

[3C]

I have been bought into; "properties are to be bought not sold" . So decided to keep my cows and milk them until they grow old and die. Unless I need money, all these changing, guessing of properties up and down are wasting time for me. Just rest easy and wait for the newspaper to announce big big, "crashed" then hold mr B and mr tan hands to showroom shopping together.

[star]

Alot of new mrt stations and mrt lines is coming up in future, they are not going to lose money on it. They going to take back every cent of investment. Be prepare for massive population increase.