Why property price is still holding??

[phantom_opera]

【iMoney智富雜誌—置業安居】近來大量名人都出來說，樓價將大跌，但是二手樓成交依然一片死寂，現時地產代理面對最大的困境是，沒有多少個業主願意賣樓。
為甚麼業主不賣樓？是不信這些財經界的名人的預測？

筆者估計，該是半信半疑吧！近來不少業主朋友都問我同一個問題：「該不該賣樓？」筆者反問他們：「賣了樓，如何處理賣樓套現的資金？」

不知怎處理所得資金

是的，筆者相信樓市二手市場之所以一片死寂，其中一個很重要的原因是，業主們不知如何處理賣樓所得的大筆現金。在現金有出路前，一動不如一靜，坐以觀察，人人如此，持有物業不賣，二手成交自然少，樓價也不易下跌。
香港土地註冊處公布，今年7月二手樓宇買賣平均價格再創新高，最新的中原城市領先指數（CCL）也再度升上120點水平，創5周新高，與2月時政府推出雙倍印花稅（DSD）前的123點，只差一點點。
或者說，從今年2月至今，CCL一直都在120點的水平上下浮動，升跌不過5%，指數走勢橫行半年以上，短期看不出會有大突破，不論是向上或是向下。
樓房的業主分幾種，一種是自住的、一種是投資者、一種是投機者。投資者又可分大投資者及小投資者，這幾種人賣樓的思考模式、考慮因素是不同的。
自住的業主，賣樓的原因只有兩個，一是欠了周身債，不得不賣樓，二是想樓換樓，第一種不多，可遇不可求，如果你想買樓而遇上這種人，你是幸運兒。因為可以大膽還價，極可能買到跳樓貨。而樓換樓者要考慮很多問題，其中最令他們不安的是：他們的單位很可能是早期買入，賣出時不必付任何額外印花稅。
但是再買時，就受政府的三辣招所限，而且賣出後，手上無物業，心中不踏實。租樓付房租就覺得在替別人供樓，而且會犯上「主觀上希望樓價跌」的分析盲點，影響自己的分析力。
想來想去，問題不少，因此想樓換樓的人暫時也不換樓了，繼續觀望。

現以投資者放盤為主

目前在市場上放盤的業主，以投資者為主，傳媒報道大量富豪在賣豪宅，這些富豪放盤的豪宅不是自住的，是用來投資的。自從買家印花稅（BSD）推出後，內地的買家大量減少，豪宅的確不易賣，價格也的確在下跌。
富豪放盤套利是很自然的事，但是數量依然有限，小小的投資者仍不知賣樓套現後，如何處理大筆現金，傾向不賣。
至於投機者，不談也罷，額外印花稅在2010年11月推出，至今近3年，投機者早已絕。

撰文：曾淵滄

[eng81157]

very simple. land bids and prices are ever increasing. how can proprety price drop then?

[xebay11]

very simple. land bids and prices are ever increasing. how can proprety price drop then?

With the new TDSR measures, affordability would take a hit, property prices will drop, we are at the pivot point now....the effects will be felt later.

[wirehtc]

With the new TDSR measures, affordability would take a hit, property prices will drop, we are at the pivot point now....the effects will be felt later.

Small PCs below $800k (1 to 2 bedders) and ECs will benefit from TDSR. Developers will switch to selling smaller units. The U-turn of a big developer at its Bishan new launch is a sign of things to come.

[xebay11]

Small PCs below $800k (1 to 2 bedders) and ECs will benefit from TDSR. Developers will switch to selling smaller units. The U-turn of a big developer at its Bishan new launch is a sign of things to come.

There can only be so much demand for small PCs as there are family space concerns.

[xtreme_46]

actually see a few start to slash price and price more willing to nego

[xebay11]

actually see a few start to slash price and price more willing to nego

Slash now before the prices go lower.

[lionhill]

Master BJ has pointed out a only way for property prices to really drop significantly: a CRASH in economy.

TDSR may lead to some moderation, but do not expect a crash. The longer one waits, the less the impact of TDSR.

[eng81157]

sorry, but property prices aren't dropping, they had been and are still creeping slowly.

quantum may be dropping but that's because of a reduction in property sizes in general. nowadays, new 4BR sizes range from 900-1100+sqft

if land prices keep going up, i don't see how on earth will property prices drop, unless all the property developers turn into social enterprises,

[wirehtc]

sorry, but property prices aren't dropping, they had been and are still creeping slowly.

quantum may be dropping but that's because of a reduction in property sizes in general. nowadays, new 4BR sizes range from 900-1100+sqft

if land prices keep going up, i don't see how on earth will property prices drop, unless all the property developers turn into social enterprises,

There are some real discounts at some launches caught by the TDSR.

[mermaid]

There are some real discounts at some launches caught by the TDSR.

I feel tat more discount on the way gg fwd wif more launches coming up & lesser take up rate during soft launch.

[xebay11]

I feel tat more discount on the way gg fwd wif more launches coming up & lesser take up rate during soft launch.

You can tell market is going down, as most agents these days getting more SMS blasts among themselves to help sell new property launches, a sure sign that the pool of buyers are drying up and everyone needs everyone's help to sell.

In the good old days, such blasts were rare as all agents wanted to deal direct with buyers, no sharing of commissions.

[mermaid]

You can tell market is going down, as most agents these days getting more SMS blasts among themselves to help sell new property launches, a sure sign that the pool of buyers are drying up and everyone needs everyone's help to sell.

In the good old days, such blasts were rare as all agents wanted to deal direct with buyers, no sharing of commissions.

when new launches cant sell, developers hv no choose but to lower their bids. wats the point of bidding unrealistically & get the land yet ended up unable to sell them eventually?

[eng81157]

how much is, then, the discount? did the entire property market take a dip? even during boom time, there will be some forced/fire sales due to individual unfortunate events, but that hardly constitutes to a market decline

[eng81157]

when new launches cant sell, developers hv no choose but to lower their bids. wats the point of bidding unrealistically & get the land yet ended up unable to sell them eventually?

i was of the view too, like most, that the market should be slowing down to a standstill but look at fraser's bid @ yishun.

[mermaid]

i was of the view too, like most, that the market should be slowing down to a standstill but look at fraser's bid @ yishun.

tat one overbid by so much more is clearly a lack of experience & understanding of one's competitors la!

But I believe tat 人不会做亏本生意. Ultimately developers will tink, issit worser to hv no biz (becos bid too low cannot get land) or losses (bid land/price lauches too high unable to sell)?

[xebay11]

i was of the view too, like most, that the market should be slowing down to a standstill but look at fraser's bid @ yishun.

Everyone makes mistakes.

[mermaid]

Everyone makes mistakes.

look at trilinq & sky habitat for eg of the more recent cases.
in the end who pays for the mistakes?
developers or buyers?

[eng81157]

tat one overbid by so much more is clearly a lack of experience & understanding of one's competitors la!

But I believe tat 人不会做亏本生意. Ultimately developers will tink, issit worser to hv no biz (becos bid too low cannot get land) or losses (bid land/price lauches too high unable to sell)?

whether it is a mistake or lack of experience, it still doesn't negate the fact that land costs went up, which eventually transfers to buyers.

assuming that fraser doesn't want to take a hit on its profits and prices in the same amount of margin, the property development will set the price ceiling in Yishun. hence my argument - as long as land prices keep rising, there is no way that property prices will crash

[3C]

It is no brainer. The only reason to buy now is interest rate. Other than first timer buying to stay which gong gong investor want to buy with so many CMs.

[mermaid]

whether it is a mistake or lack of experience, it still doesn't negate the fact that land costs went up, which eventually transfers to buyers.

assuming that fraser doesn't want to take a hit on its profits and prices in the same amount of margin, the property development will set the price ceiling in Yishun. hence my argument - as long as land prices keep rising, there is no way that property prices will crash

u see huh, as buyers we do not nid to succumb to the nonsense from developers. in fact, TDSR help developers to wake up from their mentality tat buyers will always the suckers for ridiculous bids.

some developers may still choose to bid high. it's their business, their choice; there is always better launches for buyers to consider & compare.
one gd example now is Sky Vue vs The Glades. Selling at similar psf, both near mrt. Take yr pick.

[sabian]

Screw the discounts lah.

Just compare the effective psf of caveats lodged for:

mickey mouse sold earlier vs mickey mouse for sale now
1 bedder sold earlier vs 1 bedder for sale now
2 bedder sold earlier vs 2 bedder for sale now
3 bedder sold earlier vs 3 bedder for sale now
3+S bedder sold earlier vs 3+S bedder for sale now
4 bedder sold earlier vs 4 bedder for sale now

Or if you want to be anal

Same area sold earlier vs same area sold now (since a 4 bedder now is equivalent to a 3 bedder sold in the earlier years)

Discounts just allow developers/ agents to obfuscate the effective psf.

[jeaprp]

It is no brainer. The only reason to buy now is interest rate. Other than first timer buying to stay which gong gong investor want to buy with so many CMs.

I think is demand that is supporting the price.
If u can profit from it, then high interest rate is no issue.
But if u can't make money, zero interest also nobody want to buy.

[3C]

Discount? Hope you don't grumble when TOP your PC looks not much different from BTO or even.....

[3C]

I think is demand that is supporting the price.
If u can profit from it, then high interest rate is no issue.
But if u can't make money, zero interest also nobody want to buy.

Are you saying that with 7% & 10% ABSD can only sell 4 years later can make money or good rental yield. Can share any project as eg?
The reason price still holding because sellers still can hold because of interest rate. Show me any sold out project recently

[propertyguru]

Are you saying that with 7% & 10% ABSD can only sell 4 years later can make money or good rental yield. Can share any project as eg?
The reason price still holding because sellers still can hold because of interest rate. Show me any sold out project recently

You are right that the CMs have taken out many of the older investors. However, anecdotally, I have several friends in their late 20s and early 30s who are not married but are buying their first properties as an investment. They don't have plans to get married in the next few years, and see property as a safe investment.

The CMs haven't taken these investors out, so there's still demand. Not as big as before, but certainly there is some demand which has yet to be killed off.

[mermaid]

Are you saying that with 7% & 10% ABSD can only sell 4 years later can make money or good rental yield. Can share any project as eg?
The reason price still holding because sellers still can hold because of interest rate. Show me any sold out project recently

wif interest rates increasing, only the cash fit investors can ride the storm safely

[jeaprp]

Are you saying that with 7% & 10% ABSD can only sell 4 years later can make money or good rental yield. Can share any project as eg?
The reason price still holding because sellers still can hold because of interest rate. Show me any sold out project recently

Then why are these ppl still buying???
There's still demand out there lor. abit slower

Y are developers still bidding at the current price or higher.
Who are they selling to if u say there is no demand???
Interest rate is only one part but demand is the main reason, IMO

Btw, Ppl buying now may not be selling 4yrs later

[3C]

Maybe let me put it clear. I am not debating whether there is demand or not. Otherwise developer & agent already eat grass.

What I am trying to say there are no more incentives for investors to go in. Don't talk to me those got money no where to spend and don't mind 10 years later make money. If you call these investors, I got nothing to say.

[jeaprp]

Maybe let me put it clear. I am not debating whether there is demand or not. Otherwise developer & agent already eat grass.

What I am trying to say there are no more incentives for investors to go in. Don't talk to me those got money no where to spend and don't mind 10 years later make money. If you call these investors, I got nothing to say.

I agree. More for owner occupier now
The govt has weed out most of the speculative investor.
The CM is in place to prevent the specu bubble.
if the influx slow down or stop,
then prices will really correct/collapse