Senior
Detached houses prices are continuing its downward trend from last quarter even the ultra rich are feeling its, while small time buyers are still rushing in to catch the tail end of the landed property cycle.
So what happen to
1) Theory of no new supply (especially detached housing)
2) 20,000??? RICH new citizen?
3) Landed property owners (Especially detached housing) have deep pocket and holding power?
4) Landed owners are not affected by TDSR because they are CASH RICH?
BEWARE.
"Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."
Newbie
Remove CM???
Senior
Government wont be bother about this segment of the market.Originally Posted by vboy
To the government, FH residential estate is none of their concern.
"Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."
Junior
King of trolls is back.
Can you let readers know how many 'storm threads' you have created here already?
From wiki
Quote:
In Internet slang, a troll (/ˈtroʊl/, /ˈtrɒl/) is a person who sows discord on the Internet by starting arguments or upsetting people,[1] by posting inflammatory,[2] extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community (such as a forum, chat room, or blog), either accidentally[3][4] or with the deliberate intent of provoking readers into an emotional response[5] or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion.[6]
Nuff said..in case people say I don't back up my statements, read below.
1. Sows discord
2. Inflammatory
3. Extraneous
No need to quote him. He himself admits that he generates a lot of bullshit
4. Off-topic
Just in thread on housebreaking alone - read all his posts on fake accounts vs what is the thread topic. For other threads, just read his posts when he can't counter a statement. His infamous 'off-topic' avoidance technique.
5. Deliberate intent to provoke
Just read all the threads he started in the landed forum, his Owners in the West beware thread and the East Coast threads on reclaimation
Senior
Evolution of the price index.
As i told you long time ago that a bubble is forming better cash out early.
"Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."
Junior
Hmm, I thought someone lost faith in all his charts yet he persist in posting them.
You want to see the post with the most crap...see the quoted post below on projected market sentiment for next two years
For someone who swears by his ppi chart which he continues to re-post time and again to try to talk down the landed market, he doesn't even know that the statements he makes contradicts his beloved chart.
Anyone can see that when any segment goes down for two years, all other segments follows.
Either he can re-write history or has miraculous powers to keep one segment flat whilst the other one drops 10% or more.
Senior
So what happen to
1) Theory of no new supply (especially detached housing)
2) 20,000??? RICH new citizen?
3) Landed property owners (Especially detached housing) have deep pocket and holding power?
4) Landed owners are not affected by TDSR because they are CASH RICH?
"Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."
Junior
URA's latest data show :
Landed index INCREASED from 244.9 in Q2 2013 to 245.6 in Q3 2013!!!!
Nuff said...
Senior
detached house fell by 1.2% last quarter. nuff said!!
So what happen to
1) Theory of no new supply (especially detached housing)
2) 20,000??? RICH new citizen?
3) Landed property owners (Especially detached housing) have deep pocket and holding power?
4) Landed owners are not affected by TDSR because they are CASH RICH?
"Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."
Senior
And according to you low transaction volume is supposed to be good because it help to prevent price from falling.
But it doesnt show leh. what happen?
"Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."
Junior
Someone sure is pissed that landed index keeps increasing.
Landed index increases quarter on quarter and someone keeps shouting 'Land storm is here" ????
Senior
Dont avoid my questions leh. Since you are such an expert in landed property,
So what happen to what you said about
1) No new supply of landed property (especially detached housing)
2) 20,000??? RICH new citizen?
3) Landed property owners (Especially detached housing) have deep pocket and holding power?
4) Landed owners are not affected by TDSR because they are CASH RICH?
Are you having cold sweat?
"Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."
Junior
Looks like you are the one who are totally embarrassed and totally without credibility now.
Keeps broadcasting that "land storm is coming" or 'land storm is here" but the landed index keeps rising.
Senior
Evolution of land storm. From bragging about double digit growth to finding small change to save face..LOL!!!
Wonder what happen to all the deep pocket cash rich good holding power new citizen..
"Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."
Junior
Did anyone in this thread brag of double digit growth?Evolution of land storm. From bragging about double digit growth to finding small change to save face..LOL!!!
Wonder what happen to all the deep pocket cash rich good holding power new citizen..
All I see is one loner continually hollering "land storm is coming " or 'land storm is here"
BUT instead
Landed index INCREASED from 244.9 in Q2 2013 to 245.6 in Q3 2013!!!!
Newbie
Landed property will continue to rise.
When SG population -> HK population then the prices also will be similar.
A small 5000sqft in prime area is a billion HK$!
Newbie
I also think landed will rise in the future. But don't ask me to back up with figures. It is my own observation and prediction
Junior
Wow!! No wonder TWIST & TURN cum DIVERT ATTENTION MR B (Oops I mean Mr R33) act blur & trying to hide something from me..
While seeing "Part I" CANNOT MAKE IT already, quickly start a "Part II".. trying to divert attention
Last time, Part I chart (below) posted BIG BIG showed arrow semi-d will go down.. now lan lan act blur removed this arrow after seeing UP UP UP on terrace & semi-d
Newbie
R33, drop 1% is ok lah since it has gone up so mucah already.. no big concern..
but if landed really crash, you will be sure that people like myself will be buying and keeping.... looking forward for it to come but difficult lah.. instead of hoping and hoping better to find alternative and move on..
dont keep harping and harping....
Newbie
Just put your money where your mouth is thats all.
Dont 空口说白话
Excuse my chinese if wrong. O levels C6.
My observation is that within landed there are so many segments.
Price movements are different for diff segments.
Terrace house low quantum, many people can afford so the prices have been driven up( similar to mass market condos)
SemiDs bigger quantum, less people can afford.
Have seen quite a handful which has remained unsold for almost 2 yrs now.
Owners still calling for prices which market refuses to give.
Detach and GCB, another segment.
Requires big money to maintain and build.
This is the least rational segment.
Becos buying luxury is irrational mostly.
Where do i see the landed properties go as a whole?
From todays calling prices , about 15 to 20% down within the next 3 yrs if nothing changes from here. Have made this call since 1qtr 2013. No one can catch the perfect peak or trough but i'll be very happy to hit 80% percentile accuracy.
Although supply for landed as agents like to say is limited, demand is also limited. Not everyone can buy land. Unlike condos. All the CMs have killed bulk of investment interest in landed becos stamp duty is high and yields are low, upside in nearterm is practically zero. Therefore buyers now would be made up of those who are more buying really to stay.
If you have a landed property as investment now.
You shouldnt wait to sell it. Take the profits, and wait to reinvest.
These are my personal views and i put my money where my mouth is.
Not buying at current prices being offered.
Best
Junior
I appreciate you putting your money where your mouth is.
You said you made this call since 1qtr 2013. According to your profile, you have made only 19 posts in this forum.
I have looked at all your posts. 3 are for Minton, 2 for D'Leedon, 2 for Promenade, 1 for Cluny Park, 6 for watermark, 2 for robertson edge and 1 for waterscape.
You have only posted twice in the landed forums. Above post and the other one was to remark how ugly one semi-D was. I do not see any predictions on the landed segment trend.
Could you explain your statement in bold about the call?
On the rest of your post about investment interest in landed, TS has already shown that about 86% of landed owners buy for own stay and not for investment (see link below-upto post #7). Hence your other statements in bold about landed investments refer to only about 14% of landed owners.
http://http://forums.condosingapore....375#post396375
Also see what TS has to say about landed owners who buy for own stay.
Last edited by proper-t; 27-10-13 at 17:01.
Newbie
As mentioned those are my own opinions and views, just expressing them.
The call was made by myself for my own actions got nothing to do with what else i post in here.
Not here to debate on up or down , or to prove who is right or wrong.
Not interested. Only sharing views. Am ready to agree to disagree.
What TS write are his opinions, not mine.
I just read, neither agree nor disagree, not too bothered.
In terms of landed as investment, not many but still have.
So if anyone is holding it as investment , it is time to take profits.
Pure and simple. I'm not very intelligent person so forgive me.
Hope its clearer for you now, my stance in this forum.
Junior
Thanks for your clarification. Everyone is free to express their views and being a forum, all forumers have the right to agree or disagree, even with your views.
I was just curious about your predictions and also wanted to point out that the majority of landed owners (as proven by TS)buy for own stay and not for investment so the psyche of a landed buyer or seller may be quite different from your viewpoint.
Am glad of your interest in landed. Hope your current investments are doing well.
Newbie
Erm, why are you glad of my interest in landed?
My current investment are ok lah, only holding one fully paid landed now as residence. zero debt, very liquid, half in stocks and bonds, half in cash. but not eager to buy at current levels at all becos selling agents are calling 10% above my personal valuation levels. And i expect market to drop. Therefore, i would offer 20% below selling agents price. A real and motivated seller would meet and discuss, otherwise, i dont want to waste anyone's time or effort.
Junior
Glad to know you are in a good state as some folks here think that all landed owners are over-geared and illiquid.
Care to share which segment you will be concentrating on in the near future? or stay away from property at the moment?
Newbie
New landed owners may be quite geared but the older ones not so.
I bought my first landed in 2008 and basically fully paid within two years
Especially the old old landed owners, mostly fully paid. These people should cash out now if thats their goal. Prices are definitely toppish than not,
We learn in market behavioural sciences, if an asset moves extraordinarily in one direction in a relatively short period of time, there will bound to be a correction.
For me, no money for detached so remain in SemiD segment and D9 condos segment.
And you? How?
Junior
We should not assume all new landed owners are highly geared unless we know their loan level, income status and cash/liquid holdings.
Furthermore, the various cooling measures have already reduced the amount a property buyer can borrow so recent buyers may not be as deeply affected as you think.
Do you intend to sell your landed since you are advocating people to sell theirs?
Isnt the first line of your first post in this thread
"Just put your money where your mouth is thats all."
If you believe strongly that landed prices will drop 10 to 15% in 3 years, why not sell off your landed now, rent a nicer landed and then buy back 20% cheaper in 3 years time?
Last edited by proper-t; 27-10-13 at 23:13.
Senior
a) Landed property transaction volume for 2013 and Q3 is record low. FYI, in 2012 the total landed property transaction was around 3000 units and YTD 2013 is only around 1100 units.
b) Overall quantum, size and psf of landed property (LAND) remain unchanged at around $4.6m
c) Overall quantum, size and psf for strata landed has been declining for the past 3 quarters.
"Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."
Junior
a) Landed property transaction volume for 2013 and Q3 is record low. FYI, in 2012 the total landed property transaction was around 3000 units and YTD 2013 is only around 1100 units.
b) Overall quantum, size and psf of landed property (LAND) remain unchanged at around $4.6m
c) Overall quantum, size and psf for strata landed has been declining for the past 3 quarters.
So, transactions have dropped but landed index keeps increasing quarter on quarter
Q1 2013 index 244.1
Q2 2013 Index 244.9
Q3 2013 Index 245.6
What does that tell you?
Likely interpretation for this phenomena is as follows :
1. There is hardly any new supply on the market
2. Less and less owners are selling their landed but holding onto it instead as it has been proven by TS that 86% of landed owners buy for own stay.
3. With less choices available on the market, transactions have dropped but prices have continued to inched up as buyers are willing to pay more for the 'best' of whatever little inventory there is in the market right now.
Junior
KNN!! That idiot talked BIG BIG asked me to wait for Q3 results to be released.. to prove that "Land Storm is Here"
NB!! Now out already.. That idiot act blur dare not post the results but instead do his usual "divert attention" tactics again by posting what sh!t low volume what low transaction
As expected
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