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Thread: Time to ease property cooling measures?

  1. #1
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    Default Time to ease property cooling measures?

    http://mypaper.sg/news/time-ease-pro...sures-20131115

    THE cooling measures are giving the property market the shivers.


    Private-home resale transactions have dipped, dropping 57 per cent in the third quarter to 1,478 units, compared to a year ago.


    Even resale prices are weak, falling 1.6 per cent in September from August for non-landed private homes.


    Foreigners are staying on the sidelines.



    On Tuesday National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan said the proportion of private homes bought by foreigners fell from 17 per cent in 2011 to 7 per cent in the third quarter of this year.


    More corrections may follow. Some economists predicted that home prices could fall as much as 30 per cent in 2015 and 2016, due to higher interest rates and a jump in housing supply expected then, The Business Times reported on Wednesday.


    Property experts say this shows that the property curbs have worked. The question is whether they have worked too well and is it time for the restrictions to be eased.


    To ward off a potential property bubble, the Government has slapped stamp duties and introduced steps to ensure that homebuyers are borrowing within their means.


    Mr Eugene Lim, ERA's key executive officer, said there is "a need to review or tweak some measures to ensure the resale market remains stable".


    He said the measures should not hurt "marginalised groups" like upgraders who are not buying for investment but to fulfil their desire for a better lifestyle.


    Mr Alan Cheong, head of research and consultancy at Savills Singapore, said that the measures in place could crimp investor demand and result in not enough homes to meet rental needs of singles and smaller families as the population grows. This could lead to rents going up.
    "Purely from this aspect, some measures should be lifted or toned down," he said.


    Mr Khaw also said he is "seeing more (light) at the end of the tunnel" when it comes to achieving a sustainable property market here but noted that "we're still in the tunnel".


    For Mr Nicholas Mak, head of research and consultancy at SLP International, this means the Government might not be ready to lift the property curbs.
    In fact, he and other experts believe lifting the measures now could backfire.


    Mr Mak said that demand in some segments is still strong: "Judging by the buying frenzy we still see at some showflats, if the Government removes the measures now, we will be back to a lot of buying and borrowing again."


    CIMB regional economist Song Seng Wun said the factors - such as low interest rates - contributing to a property bubble still remain. So, removing the restrictions would result in the same or higher level of property speculation as before.


    But looking at the large supply of homes set to hit the market between 2015 and 2017, and the possibility of interest rates rising, DWG executive director Andy Choa said it would be "a no-brainer" for the Government to consider easing some curbs.


    In the meantime, home sales are expected to still be slow next year, said Ms Lee Lay Keng, head of Singapore research at DTZ, as the cooling measures work through the market.
    "Developers will have to price their projects more competitively to realise sales," she said.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by princess_morbucks View Post
    http://mypaper.sg/news/time-ease-pro...sures-20131115

    THE cooling measures are giving the property market the shivers.


    Private-home resale transactions have dipped, dropping 57 per cent in the third quarter to 1,478 units, compared to a year ago.


    Even resale prices are weak, falling 1.6 per cent in September from August for non-landed private homes.


    Foreigners are staying on the sidelines.



    On Tuesday National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan said the proportion of private homes bought by foreigners fell from 17 per cent in 2011 to 7 per cent in the third quarter of this year.


    More corrections may follow. Some economists predicted that home prices could fall as much as 30 per cent in 2015 and 2016, due to higher interest rates and a jump in housing supply expected then, The Business Times reported on Wednesday.


    Property experts say this shows that the property curbs have worked. The question is whether they have worked too well and is it time for the restrictions to be eased.


    To ward off a potential property bubble, the Government has slapped stamp duties and introduced steps to ensure that homebuyers are borrowing within their means.


    Mr Eugene Lim, ERA's key executive officer, said there is "a need to review or tweak some measures to ensure the resale market remains stable".


    He said the measures should not hurt "marginalised groups" like upgraders who are not buying for investment but to fulfil their desire for a better lifestyle.


    Mr Alan Cheong, head of research and consultancy at Savills Singapore, said that the measures in place could crimp investor demand and result in not enough homes to meet rental needs of singles and smaller families as the population grows. This could lead to rents going up.
    "Purely from this aspect, some measures should be lifted or toned down," he said.


    Mr Khaw also said he is "seeing more (light) at the end of the tunnel" when it comes to achieving a sustainable property market here but noted that "we're still in the tunnel".


    For Mr Nicholas Mak, head of research and consultancy at SLP International, this means the Government might not be ready to lift the property curbs.
    In fact, he and other experts believe lifting the measures now could backfire.


    Mr Mak said that demand in some segments is still strong: "Judging by the buying frenzy we still see at some showflats, if the Government removes the measures now, we will be back to a lot of buying and borrowing again."


    CIMB regional economist Song Seng Wun said the factors - such as low interest rates - contributing to a property bubble still remain. So, removing the restrictions would result in the same or higher level of property speculation as before.


    But looking at the large supply of homes set to hit the market between 2015 and 2017, and the possibility of interest rates rising, DWG executive director Andy Choa said it would be "a no-brainer" for the Government to consider easing some curbs.


    In the meantime, home sales are expected to still be slow next year, said Ms Lee Lay Keng, head of Singapore research at DTZ, as the cooling measures work through the market.
    "Developers will have to price their projects more competitively to realise sales," she said.

    In view of the huge supply of private homes in 2015-2016, it may be good for the government to taper off some of the cooling measures especially those measures that limit the resale of homes now. This tapering will offload some of the excess supply of homes coming on in the later years. The consequences of capping the lid on available supply now until it becomes untenable down the road are a severe downside to the economy especially amidst a rising interest rate environment and disenchantment with the establishment for being too slow to act.

  3. #3
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    But duo and Alex still selling so well... Prices where dropping?

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Werther View Post
    But duo and Alex still selling so well... Prices where dropping?
    Duo - joint venture. It got to sell well.... a lot is at stake. Najib is smiling... u dun want to see otherwise.


    Alex - price lower than Echelon. Those who bought Alex over Echelon would think it is smart decision.

  5. #5
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    Totally agree, they should

    1. tweak the TDSR policy so it does not affect refinancing of properties purchased prior to its announcement.

    2. Reduce ABSD esp for PRs. No ABSD for SG, after all its our land.

    3. Keep SSD, but increase the holding period and or penalty. Reduces speculation.

  6. #6
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    They should add more cooling measures until all the genuine buyers and first timers secured their homes.

    They need to let the developers lose significant amount of money inorder to teach them a good lesson.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by PC08 View Post
    They should add more cooling measures until all the genuine buyers and first timers secured their homes.

    They need to let the developers lose significant amount of money inorder to teach them a good lesson.

  8. #8
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    wait long long. you go out and see majority of the people still complaining prices are high. doesn t matter what projects as long as new projects still reporting sell outs in initial phases we ll be nowhere near taking away the measures.

    I think maybe 1-2 years later got chance

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by PC08 View Post
    They should add more cooling measures until all the genuine buyers and first timers secured their homes.

    They need to let the developers lose significant amount of money inorder to teach them a good lesson.
    Private homes are not grown on tree, work hard and save hard....otherwise go to HDB nursery to pluck one.

  10. #10
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    Developers already making less money from their projects. Garment cannot make them lose so much money. Otherwise, how garment make money from them from land sale. It is a handsome revenue for the garment.
    Quote Originally Posted by PC08 View Post
    They should add more cooling measures until all the genuine buyers and first timers secured their homes.

    They need to let the developers lose significant amount of money inorder to teach them a good lesson.

  11. #11
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    I am afraid the boat has left for good and never come back. From now on price will fluctuate slightly and shoot up again.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008 View Post
    Developers already making less money from their projects. Garment cannot make them lose so much money. Otherwise, how garment make money from them from land sale. It is a handsome revenue for the garment.
    Bingo! You've realised the contradiction! There is this conflict of interest of maximised country revenue vs. affordable living!

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Photogguy View Post
    Private homes are not grown on tree, work hard and save hard....otherwise go to HDB nursery to pluck one.
    Its better to think smart.

    Non productive channels are often the most efficient channel. For an average joe, to work hard and save hard, he can only achieve this much.

  14. #14
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    Garment will continue to attract the wealthy ones by providing high end playground for them while handling out goodies previously to the bottom group but in recent times extended to middle income. Moving forward, this will move higher as those at the higher end of hoes me indie doe income also take the hit.
    Quote Originally Posted by PC08 View Post
    Bingo! You've realised the contradiction! There is this conflict of interest of maximised country revenue vs. affordable living!

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008 View Post
    Garment will continue to attract the wealthy ones by providing high end playground for them while handling out goodies previously to the bottom group but in recent times extended to middle income. Moving forward, this will move higher as those at the higher end of hoes me indie doe income also take the hit.
    Thats one superb way of increasing the GDP instantly! Parachute wealthy FTs into Sentosa Cove. ;-)

  16. #16
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    as long as interest rates remain low i dont think there will be any cut in cm
    In the final analysis.....its NOT whether you have a diploma,degree,masters OR PHD....its whether you have a HDB/PC/EC or LANDED...

  17. #17
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    Higher GDP means mor bonuses for ministers.
    Quote Originally Posted by PC08 View Post
    Thats one superb way of increasing the GDP instantly! Parachute wealthy FTs into Sentosa Cove. ;-)

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008 View Post
    Higher GDP means mor bonuses for ministers.
    You sure can read my mind. I was trying very hard to not state that in forums. :-P

  19. #19
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    Remove cm the moment the fed raise interest rate by 25 basis points, as the fed raise the interest, reduce the cm one by one in tandem w the fed, then confirm soft landing

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by PC08 View Post
    Its better to think smart.

    Non productive channels are often the most efficient channel. For an average joe, to work hard and save hard, he can only achieve this much.
    ...ya need to think smart too....however policies pushing equality in education and socio-economic opportunities i.e. all schools are good schools....transport voucher for poor at the expense of the better off...might just spawn future generations of average Joes and Janes rather than allowing market forces motivation to drive the population as per previous meritocracy approach. Now majority seemed to be yelling, "...its my right to be able to purchase well located hdbs...even if its my first time applying." "...its my right to profit from my private property purchases...eventhough I could hardly able to squeeze out enough for the down payment." , "...its my right to be in good school...even if my grades are mediocre."

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