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Thread: Home prices 'may fall up to 10%' in 2014

  1. #1
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    Default Home prices 'may fall up to 10%' in 2014

    RESIDENTIAL property prices in Singapore could fall up to 10 per cent across the board this year, an industry expert said.

    Mass market homes could be the hardest hit, with price dives of up to 15 per cent, said Ms Carmen Lee, research head of OCBC Investment Research.

    "We see a bit more vulnerability from the mass market segment this year, partly because we believe that the high-end (sector) already corrected more in 2013, hence it could see a slower rate of decline this year," said Ms Lee at an OCBC press briefing yesterday on the outlook for Singapore.

    The property sector here is facing a triple whammy: property cooling measures that continue to bite, sizeable new supply coming onstream and looming higher interest rates following the start of the United States Federal Reserve's tapering exercise.

    OCBC Investment Research anticipates that some 50,000, 49,700 and 73,600 homes including HDB flats and executive condominiums will come onstream in the financial years 2014, 2015 and 2016 respectively.

    OCBC believes there will be demand for about 29,000 homes a year, working on a population of six million by 2020 and average population growth of 86,000 a year from 2014 to 2020.

    This figure is far lower than the projected number of new homes.

    These factors are likely to bog down the property sector for the next two quarters of this year and for that reason, property stocks on the local bourse could continue to come under selling pressure.

    Ms Lee expects property stocks to correct by a further 10 per cent this year. By then their valuations could turn compelling, she said.

    The headwinds facing property companies could also be partly dampening investor sentiment in the local bourse which has had a weak and bumpy start to the year. The Straits Times Index (STI) has lost 4 per cent over four trading weeks so far this year.

    "As a percentage of the STI, (the weighting) of property stocks is very small as the index is anchored by banks and telcos but as a percentage of sentiment, it's a lot more," said Ms Lee.

    Overall, she expects decent corporate earnings growth of some 8 to 10 per cent this year, which indicates some cautious optimism for the market in 2014.

    OCBC Bank's head of treasury research and strategy, Ms Selena Ling, expects Singapore to chart slow but steady growth of about 3 to 4 per cent of gross domestic product growth this year.

    She expects two familiar themes from the Feb 21 Budget - restructuring on the economic front and working to ensure an inclusive society.

    Ms Ling does not expect corporate income tax to be raised but does not rule out possible tweaks in "wealth" taxes.

    As for the goods and services tax, she shares the views of many others who expect it to be raised some time in the next five years or so.

  2. #2
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    Most owners have a run up of close to 100% paper gain already. 10% drop or 20% drop is no big deal lah.

    In any case, DBS offers cap interest at 1.88% for 5 years, how much will interest rate increase this year? LOL!

    Also, the so called 10% drop in price are for the few low volume transactions. most are not selling as a replacement will incurr more than 10% cost.

    U waiting for crash is it? Missed the boat huh

  3. #3
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    10% is healthy correction

  4. #4
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    Most owners after correcting still profit territory. I don't know about carrotheads who bought in recent times

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by oops View Post
    RESIDENTIAL property prices in Singapore could fall up to 10 per cent across the board this year, an industry expert said.

    Mass market homes could be the hardest hit, with price dives of up to 15 per cent, said Ms Carmen Lee, research head of OCBC Investment Research.

    ....
    Quote Originally Posted by Patrickstar View Post
    Most owners after correcting still profit territory. I don't know about carrotheads who bought in recent times
    That's why last time I had said this before..
    "When TWIST & TURN cum DIVERT ATTENTION EXPERT MR B (R33) finally has bought his.. That's the time you should consider to let go some if you have more than 1 unit"

  6. #6
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    for subsale, even 10-20% drop from market speculated asking price
    still making at least 20-30% profit

  7. #7
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    ALot of investors already use two hands cover mouth and laffing liao.

    Profit is already kee xiao up upZ...

    Less 10-20% is nothing...

    COE car price reflects well.

  8. #8
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    It is like saying Dow might correct up to 10% this year ...
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  9. #9
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    HDB go down a lot better! become cheap and like utility. water like that.
    “Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.”
    ― Martin Luther King, Jr.

    OUT WITH THE SHIT TRASH

    https://www.facebook.com/shutdowntrs

  10. #10
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    Prices look like will soften.

    If no major events, more likely 3-5%. Think correction will not be uniform, more in not so good locations. "Goldmine" projects very hard to correct except for a few individual cases.

    Interest rate is still low, many sit on huge capital gains, and many bought MMs (low quantum, low falls).

    Perhaps best scenario for everyone if it goes into consolidation phase with some downward bias.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rysk View Post
    That's why last time I had said this before..
    "When TWIST & TURN cum DIVERT ATTENTION EXPERT MR B (R33) finally has bought his.. That's the time you should consider to let go some if you have more than 1 unit"
    I really don't think Mr B is R33.

    Mr B is nontstop vulgar.
    R33 really not the same type - he tries to be clever when he scolds people, it's just that he never achieves it due to natural limitations.
    ......but it would be funny if it he was.

    That would be carrothead theory truly confirmed. No wonder he's on here day&night hoping he can talk up his investment (anyone yet got confirmation he bought anything?).

  12. #12
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    with Singapore down 10% and Shanghai up 20%, very soon ABSD of 10% looks like a peanut

    ===============

    [SHANGHAI] A parcel of land in a suburb of Shanghai sold for a record 10.1 billion yuan (US$1.67 billion) at auction on Tuesday, the most expensive plot of residential land ever sold in the city, the Xinhua news agency reported.
    The winning bid by Chinese developer Franshion Properties Ltd, a subsidiary of Sinochem Group, represented a premium of 115 percent over the initial price of 4.7 billion yuan, underscoring robust demand despite Chinese government policies to cool fast-rising housing prices.
    The previous record for residential land in Shanghai was 7.2 billion yuan set in 2009.
    The 96,429 square metre (23.8 acres) plot is located in a northern suburb of Shanghai, where average new home prices rose 21.9 per cent in December from the same month the previous year, the strongest growth among 70 major cities in China, the National Bureau of Statistics has reported.

    今日上午,经过28分钟、154轮激烈厮杀,方兴地产以101亿元夺得上海闸北区大宁路街道325街坊住宅地块,楼板价47609元/平米,溢价率111.5%。同时,该地块也无悬念刷新上海宅地地王总价。值得一提的是目前周边的新房价格不过38000元/平方米。

    Sept 2013:

    融创以21亿的总价,加异地建27.8万平米医院的出价夺得北京农展馆地块,折合楼面价73099元/平米,成为北京新单价地王。
    Last edited by phantom_opera; 28-01-14 at 16:31.
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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