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Thread: Property Great Singapore Sale: To buy or to wait?

  1. #1
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    Default Property Great Singapore Sale: To buy or to wait?

    http://propertysoul.com/2014/06/07/p...uy-or-to-wait/

    Property Great Singapore Sale: To buy or to wait?


    June 7, 2014

    The annual GSS (Great Singapore Sale) may have started only on May 25. But for property new launches, the GSS started much earlier.


    The sale is now on

    With the steam of an overheated property market dying down, the buzz has now shifted to developers playing discount games to push new projects or clear old stock. With so many ‘great deals’, buyers are spoiled for choices.

    1. MCL Land cut prices for Hallmark Residences in Bukit Timah and sold 39 units in February and March.

    2. CapitaLand’s Sky Habitat in Bishan managed to move over 100 units after relaunched at 10 to 15 percent off its original prices set two years ago.

    3. Wheelock Properties put up 95 units of The Panorama in Ang Mo Kio for balloting. With a discount of 12 percent, they claimed to sell 80 to 85 units.

    4. China developer Ximeng Land relaunched the balance of 12 luxury villas on Pearl Island in Sentosa Cove, offering an 8 percent discount from a year ago.

    It proves that ‘early birds’ enjoy no advantage. We don’t see developers giving rebates back to early buyers who have paid at premium prices.


    Let’s face it: It’s a buyers’ market now!

    I am particularly amazed by the 180 degree change of attitude at The Panorama. I visited the sales gallery three months ago. A developer’s representative was ‘patrolling’ there to ensure no photo-taking, no sales brochure before booking a unit …

    Back in early January, a newspaper article mentioned that “hundreds of people visited the showflat” and “60 units out of the 120 units released were booked on the first day”. But the caveats show that only 56 units were transacted by end of April. So what happened to the units for the next 140 days after selling like hot cakes on the first day?

    Anyway, the project won’t be completed until 2019. Who knows what the property market will be like five years from now?

    Developers are now trying to transfer the risk of an unknown market to the buyers. Nonetheless, many buyers, especially first-time buyers and HDB upgraders, are excited by the new round of discounts and can’t wait to rush into the market.


    More irresistible bargains on the way?

    An HSR report revealed that 50 residential projects sold less than half of total units, including Hillion Residences in Bukit Panjang, Hillview Peak in Bukit Batok, Vue 8 Residence in Pasir Ris, The Glades in Tanah Merah, Treasure in Balmoral, Victory Ville, Devonshire 8, One Balmoral and 8 Raja.

    Eight of these new projects sold less than 10 percent while two did not manage to sell any unit since their launch last year.

    A Straits Times article on June 7 highlights the fact that 24 projects may be liable to $55.1 million in extension charges. Developers with foreign shareholders have to pay 8 to 24 percent of the land price to the government if they fail to sell their units two years after TOP. Projects that have already missed the deadline include Emerald Hill and The Marq.

    All these facts are only the tip of an iceberg:

    1. Many luxury homes in prime districts like Ardmore Park and Grange Road have been completed but not yet launched.

    2. According to URA, as of 1st quarter 2014, there are a total of 6,733 private residential units launched but unsold. On top of that, an additional 80,261 private residential units are in the supply pipeline from the rest of this year to beyond 2018.

    3. While developers are clearing their existing stock, every month there are new projects obtaining their TOP and new sites released by the government to build more private housing.

    4. New project is not the only choice for buyers. There is strong competition from countless resale units whose owners are more flexible to slash prices if they are desperate to sell.

    5. Local developers are competing with their counterparts from Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Australia, Japan, UK, US, etc. targeting the same buyers to move their current and future projects.

    How can developers find so many buyers for their new units if they are only giving 15 percent discount? This is just the beginning of the big sale!


    Where are the foreign shoppers?

    In the midst of this ‘uniquely Singapore’ Property GSS, our most wanted foreign shoppers are nowhere to be seen.

    Can participating developers seriously look into promotions targeting tourists from top-spending destinations? How about partnering with Singapore Tourism Board for organized shopping tours with free sightseeing, flight and accommodation bundled with booking a luxury home, with the 15 percent foreigner Additional Buyer Stamp Duty absorbed by the developers?

    Afterall, individual developers have already stepped up their marketing efforts in overseas countries. For instance, S P Setia is now marketing Eco Sanctuary at Chestnut Avenue to buyers in Hong Kong who are suffering from Double Stamp Duty introduced by the local government.

    Lesson learned: Sales of any product not meeting expectation at home can often find a new market in other countries.


    The sale that worth waiting for

    This year GSS is in its 20th year. Experienced shoppers like you and me have long become savvy buyers.

    When the sale just starts, I am not in a hurry to buy. It is different from a private sale open for privileged customers for one day only.

    Every sale starts with 10 percent discount for end of season sale; changes to 20 percent discount storewide; follows by further reduction of 50 percent; and ends with final reduction of 70 percent or more. Sometimes there is even a warehouse sale or moving out sale with massive mark-down of prices for stock clearance.

    By then, I may not be able to find my size, or the color or style that I want. But it doesn’t matter. I have a limited budget and I will be very happy spotting a few ‘gems’ from the left-overs!


  2. #2
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    Yes, it's about time for all to realise that debt level must be firmly supported by income level.

    Well done MND. Keep it up!

    But reduction of 70% or even 50% is impossible. Removal of intervention measures would have taken place by then. No sane govt will blindly allow that.

    I think a 30% knockoff at the very max.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  3. #3
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    Default Coin hv two faces.

    Quote Originally Posted by vip View Post
    http://propertysoul.com/2014/06/07/p...uy-or-to-wait/

    Property Great Singapore Sale: To buy or to wait?


    June 7, 2014

    The annual GSS (Great Singapore Sale) may have started only on May 25. But for property new launches, the GSS started much earlier.


    The sale is now on

    With the steam of an overheated property market dying down, the buzz has now shifted to developers playing discount games to push new projects or clear old stock. With so many ‘great deals’, buyers are spoiled for choices.

    1. MCL Land cut prices for Hallmark Residences in Bukit Timah and sold 39 units in February and March.

    2. CapitaLand’s Sky Habitat in Bishan managed to move over 100 units after relaunched at 10 to 15 percent off its original prices set two years ago.

    3. Wheelock Properties put up 95 units of The Panorama in Ang Mo Kio for balloting. With a discount of 12 percent, they claimed to sell 80 to 85 units.

    4. China developer Ximeng Land relaunched the balance of 12 luxury villas on Pearl Island in Sentosa Cove, offering an 8 percent discount from a year ago.

    It proves that ‘early birds’ enjoy no advantage. We don’t see developers giving rebates back to early buyers who have paid at premium prices.


    Let’s face it: It’s a buyers’ market now!

    I am particularly amazed by the 180 degree change of attitude at The Panorama. I visited the sales gallery three months ago. A developer’s representative was ‘patrolling’ there to ensure no photo-taking, no sales brochure before booking a unit …

    Back in early January, a newspaper article mentioned that “hundreds of people visited the showflat” and “60 units out of the 120 units released were booked on the first day”. But the caveats show that only 56 units were transacted by end of April. So what happened to the units for the next 140 days after selling like hot cakes on the first day?

    Anyway, the project won’t be completed until 2019. Who knows what the property market will be like five years from now?

    Developers are now trying to transfer the risk of an unknown market to the buyers. Nonetheless, many buyers, especially first-time buyers and HDB upgraders, are excited by the new round of discounts and can’t wait to rush into the market.


    More irresistible bargains on the way?

    An HSR report revealed that 50 residential projects sold less than half of total units, including Hillion Residences in Bukit Panjang, Hillview Peak in Bukit Batok, Vue 8 Residence in Pasir Ris, The Glades in Tanah Merah, Treasure in Balmoral, Victory Ville, Devonshire 8, One Balmoral and 8 Raja.

    Eight of these new projects sold less than 10 percent while two did not manage to sell any unit since their launch last year.

    A Straits Times article on June 7 highlights the fact that 24 projects may be liable to $55.1 million in extension charges. Developers with foreign shareholders have to pay 8 to 24 percent of the land price to the government if they fail to sell their units two years after TOP. Projects that have already missed the deadline include Emerald Hill and The Marq.

    All these facts are only the tip of an iceberg:

    1. Many luxury homes in prime districts like Ardmore Park and Grange Road have been completed but not yet launched.

    2. According to URA, as of 1st quarter 2014, there are a total of 6,733 private residential units launched but unsold. On top of that, an additional 80,261 private residential units are in the supply pipeline from the rest of this year to beyond 2018.

    3. While developers are clearing their existing stock, every month there are new projects obtaining their TOP and new sites released by the government to build more private housing.

    4. New project is not the only choice for buyers. There is strong competition from countless resale units whose owners are more flexible to slash prices if they are desperate to sell.

    5. Local developers are competing with their counterparts from Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Australia, Japan, UK, US, etc. targeting the same buyers to move their current and future projects.

    How can developers find so many buyers for their new units if they are only giving 15 percent discount? This is just the beginning of the big sale!


    Where are the foreign shoppers?

    In the midst of this ‘uniquely Singapore’ Property GSS, our most wanted foreign shoppers are nowhere to be seen.

    Can participating developers seriously look into promotions targeting tourists from top-spending destinations? How about partnering with Singapore Tourism Board for organized shopping tours with free sightseeing, flight and accommodation bundled with booking a luxury home, with the 15 percent foreigner Additional Buyer Stamp Duty absorbed by the developers?

    Afterall, individual developers have already stepped up their marketing efforts in overseas countries. For instance, S P Setia is now marketing Eco Sanctuary at Chestnut Avenue to buyers in Hong Kong who are suffering from Double Stamp Duty introduced by the local government.

    Lesson learned: Sales of any product not meeting expectation at home can often find a new market in other countries.


    The sale that worth waiting for

    This year GSS is in its 20th year. Experienced shoppers like you and me have long become savvy buyers.

    When the sale just starts, I am not in a hurry to buy. It is different from a private sale open for privileged customers for one day only.

    Every sale starts with 10 percent discount for end of season sale; changes to 20 percent discount storewide; follows by further reduction of 50 percent; and ends with final reduction of 70 percent or more. Sometimes there is even a warehouse sale or moving out sale with massive mark-down of prices for stock clearance.

    By then, I may not be able to find my size, or the color or style that I want. But it doesn’t matter. I have a limited budget and I will be very happy spotting a few ‘gems’ from the left-overs!

    It's a yes and no, there are many project's that hv sells very well but those are not much highlighted, if one want a discounted project and the project is suitable for one, that's Ok but many wl prefer suitable project even is not discounting and many of these projects hv proven to sell well even without further discount. Recently HK hv relax one of the cooling measure and price's hv begin to move up, especially for new launches and prices are really high for Spore standard.

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    keep on waiting, lol.

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    Waiting too... Still cannot stomach the 10% ABSD if only developers level the playing field

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    Depends on individuals. Some waiting for crash of properties, some waiting for removal of CM, some like me waiting for a slight more discount from seller. I think property is unlike other items. It is one of the biggest investment ever to happen in ones life time. So have to be careful loh.

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    Most of the unsold units are the bigger units.

    I think the tdsr restricted many buyers..if the bigger units discounted until 30% percent the people who have brought the smaller units would be sitting a big paper loss.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Yuki View Post
    Most of the unsold units are the bigger units.

    I think the tdsr restricted many buyers..if the bigger units discounted until 30% percent the people who have brought the smaller units would be sitting a big paper loss.
    That is exactly the point. That is the idea.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    That is exactly the point. That is the idea.
    In that case...will impact ec..hdb also isn't it?

    30 percent no joke. I don't think it's called " soft landing".

    It will create panick among investors... Just like stocks..people will suddenly want to off load to cut losses.

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    HDB sure go up when population reach 6.9 to 8 millions.
    Last time in 1996 people said don't buy will see $1millions,
    now 2014 I say don't buy will see $2million for HDB!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Yuki View Post
    In that case...will impact ec..hdb also isn't it?

    30 percent no joke. I don't think it's called " soft landing".

    It will create panick among investors... Just like stocks..people will suddenly want to off load to cut losses.
    Relax. I stated max I can believe is 30%. Typically 10 to 15 % is logical.

    You should read the original TS message, 70% lelong. Really ludicrous, although I must admit that sort of happened before.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  12. #12
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    This is an artificial buyers market.

    The tides will turn immediately the moment cooling measures are removed.

    When artificial economics are at work you are at the mercy of the government.

    Things can change immdediately.

    Buyers need to be aware

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    "Every sale starts with 10 percent discount for end of season sale; changes to 20 percent discount storewide; follows by further reduction of 50 percent; and ends with final reduction of 70 percent or more. Sometimes there is even a warehouse sale or moving out sale with massive mark-down of prices for stock clearance."

    how come I observed the contray in the GSS ( not regarding to properties): there will be some discount in end of May and early June. By end of June, all the so called discounts are gone and the choices of goods are very limited?

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    Quote Originally Posted by lionhill View Post
    "Every sale starts with 10 percent discount for end of season sale; changes to 20 percent discount storewide; follows by further reduction of 50 percent; and ends with final reduction of 70 percent or more. Sometimes there is even a warehouse sale or moving out sale with massive mark-down of prices for stock clearance."

    how come I observed the contray in the GSS ( not regarding to properties): there will be some discount in end of May and early June. By end of June, all the so called discounts are gone and the choices of goods are very limited?
    I noticed that too..

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    Quote Originally Posted by Yuki View Post
    I noticed that too..
    ....there is no need to rush to buy for a second house now, unless u worry there will no better one later, and u can't wait longer.... looking at government's plan, it appears there is no shortage of supply... I prefer to watch how those developers conduct the great sale for buyers....
    A bottle of Lafite '82 for all my coffeeshop friends yesterday...many don't know what is it....haha...

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    Landed segment still seems to be holding out to lower prices. A lot of resilience in this, driven by strong demand, and the fact that many of the old owners have no debt on the properties. The real question mark in this segment is whether those that bought in the past 24 months at historic highs, can sustain their mortgages should the economy dip. Right now no dip in sight, but it usually takes something that none has foreseen to trigger the downturn.

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    Quote Originally Posted by lionhill View Post
    "Every sale starts with 10 percent discount for end of season sale; changes to 20 percent discount storewide; follows by further reduction of 50 percent; and ends with final reduction of 70 percent or more. Sometimes there is even a warehouse sale or moving out sale with massive mark-down of prices for stock clearance."
    Article review that said 50% discount or even 70% discount is baseless. Looking at past 25 years, when was the last time property price reduced by 50%?
    Do we have worldwide economic crisis now? Do we have high interest rate soon or now?
    Most recent news ECB has reduced interest rate at Europe.
    Can anyone quote which country has seen spike in interest rate now?

    With General election due by 2016, does it make sense for the govt to see market crashed by 50%?
    Use common sense to think.

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    Quote Originally Posted by akow View Post
    Article review that said 50% discount or even 70% discount is baseless. Looking at past 25 years, when was the last time property price reduced by 50%?
    Do we have worldwide economic crisis now? Do we have high interest rate soon or now?
    Most recent news ECB has reduced interest rate at Europe.
    Can anyone quote which country has seen spike in interest rate now?

    With General election due by 2016, does it make sense for the govt to see market crashed by 50%?
    Use common sense to think.
    I think the TS does not mean on the whole collapse of 70%. What I have seen before are isolated deal (s) of huge discount of 50 to 70% not the whole market dip of 70%.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    The threadstarter has sold off all her properties. Of course, she will talk down the market.

    Let's see what is her stance when market turns up.

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    Every sale starts with 10 percent discount for end of season sale; changes to 20 percent discount storewide; follows by further reduction of 50 percent; and ends with final reduction of 70 percent or more. Sometimes there is even a warehouse sale or moving out sale with massive mark-down of prices for stock clearance.

    By then, I may not be able to find my size, or the color or style that I want. But it doesn’t matter. I have a limited budget and I will be very happy spotting a few ‘gems’ from the left-overs!

    Experienced the GSS today. They don't have my size for almost everything I like. It's either that or design I don't like, or out of my price budget.

    Still managed to get after emptying the shop something almost the right size and almost the right design and within budget.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by akow View Post

    With General election due by 2016, does it make sense for the govt to see market crashed by 50%?
    Use common sense to think.
    I agree with u that market will not crash by 50% cos the gov already mentioned that they couldn't prevent a crashed but will engineered a "soft landing" I think that many possibilities can happen within the next 12 mths. Frm the past, it served as a guide doesn't mean that it will not happen in the future. Anything is possible, just like many Bros here would want to have a change in the garment in 2016.i would always say " I'm not sure if changing is good" but my friends would always reply " you will never know" then I speechless.

    To all sellers, pls be realistic
    To all buyers, pls be sensible

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Experienced the GSS today. They don't have my size for almost everything I like. It's either that or design I don't like, or out of my price budget.

    Still managed to get after emptying the shop something almost the right size and almost the right design and within budget.
    .....Likewise.... Some shops are trying to sell "rubbish" at discounted price during this GSS, but still can't find a buyer for months......
    A bottle of Lafite '82 for all my coffeeshop friends yesterday...many don't know what is it....haha...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chinky View Post
    I agree with u that market will not crash by 50% cos the gov already mentioned that they couldn't prevent a crashed but will engineered a "soft landing" I think that many possibilities can happen within the next 12 mths. Frm the past, it served as a guide doesn't mean that it will not happen in the future. Anything is possible, just like many Bros here would want to have a change in the garment in 2016.i would always say " I'm not sure if changing is good" but my friends would always reply " you will never know" then I speechless.

    To all sellers, pls be realistic
    To all buyers, pls be sensible
    Singapore is very prosperous now a change in govt will kill everything down to our jobs and future and exchange rate. I prefer under this current govt rule.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wolverine23 View Post
    The threadstarter has sold off all her properties. Of course, she will talk down the market.
    ...走的快,好世界
    A bottle of Lafite '82 for all my coffeeshop friends yesterday...many don't know what is it....haha...

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    http://www.singstat.gov.sg/statistic...ries/hhinc.xls

    Look at table T7. Look at how many % of household earn 12k or more for year 2000,2005,2010??? What do you see???

    Look at the % of household who earn 20k or more for year 2000,2005,2010???

    Look at the salary growth.... Did your salary also moved in tandem ????

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    Quote Originally Posted by chestnut View Post
    http://www.singstat.gov.sg/statistic...ries/hhinc.xls

    Look at table T7. Look at how many % of household earn 12k or more for year 2000,2005,2010??? What do you see???

    Look at the % of household who earn 20k or more for year 2000,2005,2010???

    Look at the salary growth.... Did your salary also moved in tandem ????
    ... also try looking at the cost of living index...try asking those families with young children, how much they need every month, how much their children need for future education, and how much are their annual medical bills as well...
    A bottle of Lafite '82 for all my coffeeshop friends yesterday...many don't know what is it....haha...

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    Quote Originally Posted by star View Post
    Singapore is very prosperous now a change in govt will kill everything down to our jobs and future and exchange rate. I prefer under this current govt rule.
    ....Don't worry, gov change is impossible..... have faith in this gov....
    A bottle of Lafite '82 for all my coffeeshop friends yesterday...many don't know what is it....haha...

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    2000 vs 2005 vs 2010, did the cost of raising a kid increase so much??? 

    2000 vs 2010, cost of sending kid overseas dropped because sing dollar strengthen....

    % of household earning > 20k/month

    Year 2000 -  2.4%

    Year 2005 - 3.4%

    Year 2010 -  6.6%

    Year 2013 -  9.9%

    Mind boggling. Look at hdb max criteria.... 10 or 12k per month... Now compare the % of household earning more than 12k per month in 2000, 2005 and 2013... Really mind boggling...

    http://www.singstat.gov.sg/statistic...ries/hhinc.xls

    Now I know the gini coefficient effect.... Really shocking....

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    1. Yes, cost of raising kid went up exponentially. Childcare went up by maybe about 30%-50% to increase pay of childcare teachers to meet the % of household meeting the % you stated. This is excluding the childcares heavily subsidised by Govt, but the households with the income range you stated, which type of childcare do you think they will send their kids to?

    Milk powder also increased by about 30-40% since 2008.

    2. Car costs also went up in a similar fashion. More than 100% rise due to COE. I think the households meeting the criteria you stated are also affected similarly. Some have more than 1 car.

    3. Many of those households are already taking on the financing cost of a private. Especially the younger households that begin with private apartments. Don't you think?

    Quote Originally Posted by chestnut View Post
    2000 vs 2005 vs 2010, did the cost of raising a kid increase so much??? 

    2000 vs 2010, cost of sending kid overseas dropped because sing dollar strengthen....

    % of household earning > 20k/month

    Year 2000 -  2.4%

    Year 2005 - 3.4%

    Year 2010 -  6.6%

    Year 2013 -  9.9%

    Mind boggling. Look at hdb max criteria.... 10 or 12k per month... Now compare the % of household earning more than 12k per month in 2000, 2005 and 2013... Really mind boggling...

    http://www.singstat.gov.sg/statistic...ries/hhinc.xls

    Now I know the gini coefficient effect.... Really shocking....
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    1. Yes, cost of raising kid went up exponentially. Childcare went up by maybe about 30%-50% to increase pay of childcare teachers to meet the % of household meeting the % you stated. This is excluding the childcares heavily subsidised by Govt, but the households with the income range you stated, which type of childcare do you think they will send their kids to?

    Milk powder also increased by about 30-40% since 2008.

    2. Car costs also went up in a similar fashion. More than 100% rise due to COE. I think the households meeting the criteria you stated are also affected similarly. Some have more than 1 car.

    3. Many of those households are already taking on the financing cost of a private. Especially the younger households that begin with private apartments. Don't you think?

    Why did everything go up???? Why???? Did you notice inflation seems so high in recent years???? Why????? 

    Do you think your money got smaller???? Why????


    Have you heard of QE????

    Look at Singapore money supply

    https://secure.mas.gov.sg/MSB-XML/Re...=I&tableID=I.1

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