Senior
Junior
consolidation and distribution Phase now. The bull is over for quick gains
Thanks everyone for the support! Find A Home Loan is Standard Chartered #1 broker in 2013.
Junior
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/only-20-un...3--sector.html
Only 20 units sold at Marina One Residences on first day of public sales
Property Guru – 13 Oct 2014
Poor sales were recorded on the first day of launch for Marina One Residences with only 20 units sold last Saturday, according to media reports.
This is a sharp turnaround from the strong build-up seen during the preview phase, which saw more than 300 units taken up since 3 October, many by bulk buyers.
Singaporeans account for about 70 percent of buyers, while the rest are PRs and foreign nationalities. The top three groups of overseas buyers are from Malaysia at 20 percent, followed by Indonesia and China.
Approximately 70 percent of the units at Marina One Residences are one- and two-bedrooms. Prices start from around $1.4 million for a one-bedder while two-bedders cost above $2 million.
When contacted, a spokesperson for the developer M+S told PropertyGuru there were no further sales updates at this time.
M+S appears to have adopted a cautious approach to selling units at the development. Just one of its two towers is available for sale right now and only 372 of the total 1,042 apartments have initially been released.
Located in the heart of Singapore's new downtown core, the 99-year leasehold condominium is close to Marina Bay MRT station.
Meanwhile, sales of luxury apartments in Singapore's central business district have been muted in recent times.
The launch of Marina One comes on the back of lacklustre sales in the city area, weighed down by property cooling measures. In the second quarter of this year, 95 high-end homes were sold, down from 121 units in the previous quarter and 365 units in the same period last year. Prices in the city area have also declined for the fifth consecutive quarter since Q1 2013.
A CBRE report attributed the drop in sales to the TDSR framework which took effect at the end of June 2013.
At the same time, foreign buyers who used to be big players in Singapore's prime residential market, appear to be retreating since the ABSD was raised to 15 percent.
Junior
http://sbr.com.sg/hr-education/news/....7shn0yT3.dpuf
Published 13 Oct 2014
Over 4 in 10 Singaporeans have not started saving for retirement: report
An alarming 31% of workers older than 55 have no savings at all.
While discussions on the Central Provident Fund’s (CPF) adequacy to provide for Singaporeans’ retirement continue, a report released today revealed that an alarming number of Singaporeans are not saving properly for their retirment.
According to Aviva's Consumer Attitudes Survey, 44% of Singaporeans have not started saving for retirement at all. Whilst it may be expected that a majority of those aged between 25 and 34 would be in this position (55%), it is more concerning that 31% of those over age 55 have also yet to begin saving for retirement.
Among those who have not started saving, 41% said that they cannot afford to save, while 25% are saving for other priorities such as their children’s education.
For those who have started saving for retirement, 64% rely on CPF. Further, 54% also have endowment or investment-linked plans to supplement their retirement fund and 45% have direct investments such as shares, bonds or unit trusts.
When it comes to medical expenses incurred in old age, CPF – or more specifically, Medisave and MediShield – is the most common tool Singaporeans are relying on (73% Medisave, 70% MediShield). One-third (34%) plan to make use of their Integrated Shield plan, with 32% listing cash as part of their plan.
Junior
http://sbr.com.sg/economy/news/chart....GTkuiTSg.dpuf
Published 13 Oct 2014
Chart of the Day: Singapore losing export competitiveness versus regional peers
Beyond hiring difficulties, higher employment costs are another challenge confronting businesses. It is not just about wages per se.
According to DBS, the increase in government rates and fees has been the fastest rising cost component in the manufacturing sector. The spike-up in this cost component coincides with the hikes in the Foreign Worker Levies (FWLs) in terms of the timing and degree.
DBS adds that for example, the levies for work permits for the manufacturing sector rose on average by about 65% since 2010. While the actual wage cost component hasn’t increased much since the tightening, the levy, which is essentially a form of taxation on hiring foreign workers, adds to the overall costs of employment.
To this one must add the effects of the tightening in the foreign worker Dependency Ratio Ceiling (DRC), which has also constrained the hiring of foreign workers and increased labor costs for companies.
Here’s more from DBS:
Where possible, businesses will pass these costs to consumers, thus raising the cost structure of the economy overall. Combined with high rental and transportation costs, Singapore’s CPI inflation has exceeded 8 other Asian economies since 2011.
With higher inflation and a strengthening SGD, Singapore’s real exchange rate (REER) has appreciated vis-a-vis the average REER of these eight Asian economies as well. The appreciation in Singapore’s REER implies a deterioration in export competitiveness, with medium-term implications for growth.
Global recession is coming....
This is obvious!
To improve export competitiveness, just need to do 2 things will improve a lot:
1) Depreciate S$
2) Allow more foreign workers into Singapore!
Originally Posted by seletar
http://sbr.com.sg/economy/news/chart....GTkuiTSg.dpuf
Published 13 Oct 2014
Chart of the Day: Singapore losing export competitiveness versus regional peers
Beyond hiring difficulties, higher employment costs are another challenge confronting businesses. It is not just about wages per se.
According to DBS, the increase in government rates and fees has been the fastest rising cost component in the manufacturing sector. The spike-up in this cost component coincides with the hikes in the Foreign Worker Levies (FWLs) in terms of the timing and degree.
DBS adds that for example, the levies for work permits for the manufacturing sector rose on average by about 65% since 2010. While the actual wage cost component hasn’t increased much since the tightening, the levy, which is essentially a form of taxation on hiring foreign workers, adds to the overall costs of employment.
To this one must add the effects of the tightening in the foreign worker Dependency Ratio Ceiling (DRC), which has also constrained the hiring of foreign workers and increased labor costs for companies.
Here’s more from DBS:
Where possible, businesses will pass these costs to consumers, thus raising the cost structure of the economy overall. Combined with high rental and transportation costs, Singapore’s CPI inflation has exceeded 8 other Asian economies since 2011.
With higher inflation and a strengthening SGD, Singapore’s real exchange rate (REER) has appreciated vis-a-vis the average REER of these eight Asian economies as well. The appreciation in Singapore’s REER implies a deterioration in export competitiveness, with medium-term implications for growth.
Junior
http://sbr.com.sg/hr-education/in-fo....7hq7Nrkt.dpuf
Published 14 Oct 2014
CPF’s score plunges in global pension index amid mounting adequacy concerns
Singapore’s Central Provident Fund (CPF) recorded the greatest downward movement in the 2014 edition of the Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index, a report released yearly by the Australian Centre for Financial Studies and Mercer.
The report tracks pension systems across the world. Although the CPF remains Asia’s best, Singapore’s overall index value still slid by 7.7%, on the back of a 3% decline in the adequacy sub-index.
The adequacy sub-index represents “the benefits that are currently being provided together with some important benefit design features”. Singapore received a score of 56.4% in this sub-index, down from 59.0% in 2013 and well below the global average of 62.0%.
Singapore received an overall grade of 65.9%, just barely making the cut to receive an overall ‘B’ grade. This grade is given to a system that has “sound structure, with many good features, but has some areas for improvement that differentiates it from an A-grade system.”
According to the report, the overall index value for the Singaporean system could be increased by increasing the minimum level of support for the poorest aged individuals and reducing the barriers to establishing tax-approved group corporate retirement plans.
The CPF should also be opened to non-residents, who comprise more than one-third of the labour force. The labor force participation rate at older ages should also be increased.
Other countries that received a ‘B’ grade are Finland, Switzerland, Sweden, Canada, Chile, and the UK. Australia and the Netherlands received ‘B+’ grades, while Denmark was the only country to receive a grade of ‘A’.
To Singapore’s credit, other Asian countries received a grade of ‘D’. These countries are China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, India.
Junior
http://sbr.com.sg/economy/news/expec....kzva2r8O.dpuf
Published 14 Oct 2014
Expect higher food, services costs in 2015: MAS
The Monetary Authority of Singapore today stated that the country’s Core Inflation is projected to stay above its historical average over the next few quarters, even as CPI-All Items inflation remains subdued.
MAS Core Inflation, which excludes private road transport and accommodation costs, averaged 2.2% y-o-y in July–August, similar to Q2 and up from 2.0% in Q1 2014. This relatively firm outcome was largely due to continued pass-through of higher wages and other business costs to the prices of consumer services.
The MAS noted that domestic food inflation could be impacted by higher prices of regional food supplies. At the same time, with the economy at full employment, wages should continue to increase and filter through to prices, in particular, of services items for which demand remains firm, such as healthcare and education.
On a year-ago basis, MAS Core Inflation is projected to pick up gradually into early next year, before easing in the second half of 2015. MAS Core Inflation is forecast to average 2–2.5% in 2014 and 2–3% in 2015.
Junior
http://sbr.com.sg/residential-proper....SL01YsBv.dpuf
Published 14 Oct 2014
Singapore’s private home prices and rents decline further in September
Prices and rents in Singapore’s private residential sector continued the consecutive declines since peaks earlier this year.
According to a flash report by SRX, non-landed private residential resale prices dropped 0.3% in September, compared to August. Non-landed Private Residential in OCR drove the overall index down with price decrease of 2.1%. In comparison, prices of Non-landed Private Residential in CCR and RCR went up by 0.9% and 2.9%, respectively.
According to Non-landed Private Residential Resale data compiled by SRX Property, an estimated 468 Non-landed Private Residential units were resold in September, a 15.3% increase from 406 transacted units in August.
An estimated 3,171 Non-landed Private Residential units were rented in September 2014. This marks a 14.0% decrease from 3,688 units rented in August 2014.
Here’s more from SRX:
Rents posted a drop of 0.2% in September compared to August. Non-landed Private Residential units in RCR and OCR saw decreases in rent of 0.6% and 0.9% respectively, while units in CCR posted a rent increase of 0.3%. Non-landed Private Residential prices continue to face downward pressure and negative market sentiment.
Junior
http://sbr.com.sg/residential-proper....GqBnUBXJ.dpuf
Published 14 Oct 2014
Private residential property prices to plunge 20% by 2015
Vacancy rates will hit a record-high 10%.
Singapore’s private residential property prices reported steady declines in September, but prices are expected to plunge by 20% in 2015, with vacancy rates expected to hit a record-high 10% in 2016.
According to Barclay’s, the drop is in view of market expectations of rising interest rates, and will coincide with peak supply as unsold inventory rises across both high and low-end segments.
“We expect both volumes and prices to slide given: 1) the ongoing government curbs, 2) looming oversupply, and 3) rising interest/mortgage rates in 2H15E. We maintain our negative stance on the Singapore residential sector. We see an oversupply of private housing properties and we expect prices to fall 20% by 2015, in view of market expectations for interest rates to rise, coinciding with peak supply and our assumption that the vacancy rate could reach a record 10% by 2016,” noted the report.
Here’s more from Barclay’s:
The Urban Redevelopment Authority’s flash data for 3Q14 indicates that both private and public home prices continued to slip in 3Q14 for the fourth and fifth consecutive quarters respectively.
Private home prices fell 0.6% q/q and -3.8% y/y. This is the fourth straight decline, albeit a slight deceleration, after -1.0% q/q in 2Q14, -1.3% q/q in 1Q14 and -0.9% q/q in 4Q13, bringing the cumulative decline to 3.8% since the peak in 3Q13.
Public housing continued to fall for the fifth straight quarter by 1.6% q/q, vs -1.4% in 2Q14, for a cumulative slide of 6.8% from the peak.
August sales fell 15% m/m and 43%y/y to 432 units, the lowest monthly figure since December 2013, bringing year-to-August sales to 5,350 units, down 52% y/y from 11,188 units in 8M13.
We believe the government will only start unwinding measures when prices fall a cumulative steeper 10-15%, perhaps in mid-2015.
Senior
BLOOMBERG NEWS
Bond Market Convinced Fed Inflation Goal Unreachable This Decade
By Daniel Kruger and Cordell Eddings - Oct 13, 2014
When it comes to spurring inflation in the U.S. economy, the bond market is becoming convinced that the Federal Reserve has almost no chance of achieving its 2 percent target before the end of the decade.
Inflation expectations have plummeted in the past three months, with yields of Treasuries (BUSY) implying consumer prices will rise an average 1.5 percent annually through the third quarter of 2019. In the past decade, those predictions have come within 0.1 percentage point of the actual rate of price increases in the following five years, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Even after the Fed inundated the economy with more than $3.5 trillion since 2008, bond traders are showing little fear of inflation. That may help influence U.S. monetary policy and make it harder for Fed officials to raise interest rates from close to zero as global growth weakens and the International Monetary Fund points to disinflation as a more imminent concern.
“The longer inflation rates stay below their targets, the longer the Fed’s going to stay on hold,” Gregory Whiteley, a money manager at Los Angeles-based DoubleLine Capital LP, which oversees $56 billion, said by telephone yesterday. “The burden of proof is more on the hawks and the people arguing for a rise in rates. They’re the people who have to make the case.”
As the Fed winds down the most-aggressive stimulus measures in its 100-year history, the debate has intensified over how soon the central bank needs to raise rates and whether the shift will herald the long-awaited bear market in bonds.
Predictive Power
While Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher and Philadelphia Fed’s Charles Plosser dissented at the bank’s last meeting and have both warned that keeping rates too low for too long may trigger excessive inflation, the bond market’s predictive power helps to explain why U.S. government debt remains in demand.
Instead of falling, as just about every Wall Street prognosticator predicted at the start of the year, Treasuries have returned 5.1 percent in 2014. The gains have outstripped U.S. stocks, gold and commodities this year.
Yields on the 10-year note, the benchmark for trillions of dollars of securities, have plummeted 0.75 percentage point and ended at a 15-month low of 2.28 percent last week.
The rally has accelerated this month as a string of developments from lackluster wage growth to potential deflation in Europe cast doubt on the notion that price pressures will prompt the Fed to raise rates sooner rather than later.
After the annual inflation rate rose to a two-year high of 2.1 percent in May, consumer-price increases have since slowed for three straight months to 1.7 percent in August.
‘Fundamental Worry’
“There’s a fundamental worry that inflation won’t be forthcoming,” Wan-Chong Kung, a money manager at Nuveen Asset Management, which oversees $225 billion, said by telephone from Minneapolis on Oct. 8.
Kung said she sold her holdings of five-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, which unlike fixed-rate bonds increase in value to compensate for rising living costs.
One of the biggest reasons inflation remains muted is because consistent wage increases that spur consumer spending and demand have yet to materialize. Hourly earnings for U.S. workers, whose spending accounts for 70 percent of the economy, were unchanged last month. They have been flat or increased just 0.1 percent in four of the past seven months.
Weakening global growth has also emerged as a threat. Last week, the Washington-based IMF lowered its growth outlook for next year to 3.8 percent from a July forecast of 4 percent and pointed to the increasing risk of falling prices in Europe.
Global Drag
Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said on Oct. 11 at the IMF’s annual meetings that if overseas growth is weaker than anticipated, “the consequences for the U.S. economy could lead the Fed to remove accommodation more slowly than otherwise.”
His comments echoed those of a number of Fed officials who said the expansion “might be slower than they expected if foreign economic growth came in weaker than anticipated,” minutes from the Sept. 16-17 meeting released last week showed.
“The Fed wants to raise rates, but you’re not seeing the kind of global growth that would suggest interest rates have to go up any time soon,” Jim Kochan, the chief fixed-income strategist at Wells Fargo Funds Management LLC, which oversees $221 billion, said by telephone from Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.
The consequences for inflation are already being priced into the bond market. Based on the gap between yields of government notes and TIPS, traders have scaled back estimates for average inflation through 2019 by a half-percentage point since June to 1.52 percent, Fed data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Collective Wisdom
That decline has significance for policy makers because yields have historically been accurate in predicting the future pace of annual cost-of-living increases.
The market’s five-year forecast has understated actual inflation based on the U.S. consumer price index by a median of just 0.04 percentage point since the data began in 2003.
With the Fed’s preferred measure averaging 0.34 percentage point less than CPI in that span, traders are signaling prices based on that gauge may rise as little as 1.18 percent. Through August, the personal consumption expenditures deflator has fallen short of the Fed’s 2 percent goal for 28 straight months.
Fed officials “need to be paying attention to that because there’s a collective wisdom element to the TIPS market,” Mitchell Stapley, the chief investment officer for Cincinnati-based ClearArc Capital, which manages $7 billion, said in an Oct. 8 telephone interview.
Bond traders who are shunning TIPS are underestimating the risk that inflation will pick up as the U.S. economy strengthens and workers are hired at the fastest pace since 1999, according to Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Mirih Worah.
Less Confident
Even as the rest of the world slows, the IMF boosted its forecast for U.S. growth next year to 3.1 percent, which would be the fastest in a decade. In July, the fund predicted the world’s largest economy would expand 3 percent in 2015.
“For the next 12 months, headline inflation will be 1.5 percent, but not for the next five years,” Worah, one of the co-managers who succeeded Bill Gross in overseeing Pimco’s $201 billion Total Return Fund, said by telephone Oct. 9 from Newport Beach, California. “It’s overdone.”
Worah said he’s been buying five-year TIPS as prices of the securities declined. In September, TIPS of all maturities lost 2.7 percent in the biggest monthly decline since June 2013.
Futures traders are signaling their skepticism over accelerating inflation by pushing back projections for the Fed’s first rate increase since 2006.
For the first time in at least six months, they’re pricing in the likelihood the Fed won’t raise its target rate until after next September, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
‘Disinflationary Cycle’
When it comes to a rate boost in October 2015, odds based on futures trading have fallen to little more than a coin flip.
Lower commodity prices, coupled with the dollar’s strength as traders anticipate looser monetary policy in Europe and Japan, also suggest inflation will remain in check and give the Fed room to maneuver as the U.S. economy grows.
Crude oil prices have fallen 20 percent from a nine-month high in June, entering a bear market last week after closing at $86 a barrel. The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which measures 22 commodities from corn to zinc, tumbled 11.8 percent last quarter in the biggest slump since the financial crisis in 2008.
Most commodities are priced in dollars, which has helped reduce costs for American businesses and consumers as the U.S. currency rallied to a four-year high this month.
“It’s becoming increasingly more difficult to be a hawk given what’s going on with inflation,” Kevin Giddis, the Memphis, Tennessee-based head of fixed-income capital markets at Raymond James & Associates Inc., said in a telephone interview on Oct. 10. “We are in a longer-term disinflationary cycle that is likely to keep rates low for some time.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Daniel Kruger in New York at [email protected]; Cordell Eddings in New York at [email protected]
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at [email protected]; Michael Tsang at [email protected] Michael Tsang, Paul Cox
.
®2014 BLOOMBERG L.P. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Senior
The ripple started from CCR has reached OCR on prices. Rental will be the next wave hitting the OCR. OCR got to beware. The wave has already passed CCR and going into RCR and OCR.Resale prices of non-landed private homes dip in September, but volume increases
Tuesday, Oct 14, 2014
AsiaOne
SINGAPORE - Resale prices of non-landed private homes fell 0.3 per cent in September from the previous month, SRX Property said in its flash report on Tuesday.
The lower figure was attributed to a 2.1 per cent fall in resale prices of homes in the Outside Central Region (OCR).
In comparison, prices of non-landed private homes in the Core Central Region (CCR) and Rest of Central Region (RCR)went up by 0.9 per cent and 2.9 per cent, respectively.
Prices of homes in the CCR has continued to rise after a 4.2 per cent gain in August.
According to the the SRX Property report, resale prices of non-landed private homes have dropped 4.6 per cent from September 2013. They are also 5.6 per cent lower from a peak in January this year.
On the other hand, resale volume increased by 15.3 per cent in September. An estimated 468 Non-landed Private Residential units were resold in September, up from 406 transacted units in August.
Year-on-year, resale volume improved 13.3 per cent compared with 413 units resold in September 2013. Resale volume is down 77.2 per cent when compared to its peak of 2,050 resold in April 2010.
Rental volume decreased by 14.0 per cent in September. An estimated 3,171 Non-landed Private Residential units were rented, down 14 per cent from the 3,688 units rented in August.
Year-on-year, rental volume in September 2014 is 8.7 per cent higher compared with the 2,916 units rented in September 2013.
Rental prices have also continued to fall. According to the SRX Property, rents dipped 0.2 per cent in September compared to August.
Non-landed private residential units in RCR and OCR saw decreases in rent of 0.6 per cent and 0.9 per cent respectively, while units in CCR posted a rent increase of 0.3 per cent.
[email protected]
Global recession is coming....
Yes indeed!
First, OCR private condos many will have no tenants for extended periods (agents telling me many OCR private condos units can't find tenants for 6 months or more already).
Then, those who can't pay monthly instalments without rental from tenants will have to sell cheap cheap.
As interest rate increases, many will find themselves unable to refinance to cheaper rate due to TDSR...
OCR transactions will start to increase with CRASH in prices! (As I predicted!)
How low will OCR private prices go? Nobody knows, but definitely at least a drop of >20% (conservatively, which means could drop 25 or even 30% for places like JGateway!)...
Senior
This is exactly what garment is most concerned with this group of people who also wants join the herd to own a lower quantum property to rent out and got caught. They are not too concern about foreigners who are holding on to vacant unit in CCR. The moderation of in HDB resale prices is fine as long as it is not too drastic, otherwise the upgraders will be caught in all ways. The original intent of this group of people who have some spare cash for retirement have invested in such property to take passive income but now being cornered.
Senior
1. How many of them have a fully pay HDB ?
2. How many can stay in private and HDB empty ?
3. How many buy for their children ?
If most of them are as above then the price should not change much.
If SGD 2600 a month can have 2 Private and 1 HDB, guess most of them should be no problem.
Amber
I think the people who join the herd to own a lower quantum investment property are mostly younger and less savvy buyers rather than people nearing their retirement. Based on MAS's reports, people who bought second property or took more than one housing loans were higher income earners who are likely to be mid career executives. People nearing retirement are likely to be in their 50s' with a lot more experience and have witnessed a few property cycles already. They are less likely to get caught.
The younger buyers might have successfully "convinced" their older folks to support their purchases or decisions because they "firmly believe" that this time is different and price can only go up. They are likely to have done their "research" through their readings as reported in the media (including this forum) by so call property experts.
Senior
Yes and No. Some retirees with several hundred thousand dollar who cannot take up bank loan but went for the lower quantum units, eg. MM in OCR will get caught. I am referring to the less experience ones, young or old.
Global recession is coming....
Yes and No...
No because unlike you, many earning >S$2600 per month have high living expenses, little savings, and
while you can borrow 80% loan previously, now they can only borrow 60% or 50% loan, so pay too much cash into property downpayment and too little cash on hand for buffer and emergency, so if no tenant rental income cannot last long... May be 1 year no tenant will do them in...........
Junior
I don't understand????? If no recession, means no high unemployment. Means no retrenchment. Were there pay increases recently???? Will there be pay increases???? If got pay increase, what is the issue???? Condo only form 20% of the entire population. Work out a scenario with loan quantum, number of years loan and monthly installment, lowest monthly rental. You will see how much one needs to folk out a month from salaries or cpf.
It is the unknown that causes all the fear.... Hahahahahaha... Once a table is drawn, then it will be easy to see.��
Senior
Did you read the recent article on underemployment? There was an example about a person name Max who was holding a senior appointment in a company earning $20,000 per month until his company got restructured. He could not find a similar job and have to settle for an $8000/mth job. There is an increasing cases of underemployment in Singapore with more graduates from local and overseas universities. We are experiencing what South Korea is facing. Max may have over committed to lots of things like nice car and house(s) when he earning $20,000 per month.
Junior
That's mid life crisis.... When a person exceeds 40 years old, he can easily be replaced by a younger, faster and more tech savvy person. Unless the person has a unique skill which is appreciated by the company.
In the modern age of Internet, everything is easily available on the net. Knowledge is the net.
This is the new age.
So a person needs to strike early, when he reaches > 40 years old, life gets tougher.... Imagine waiting till 45, how??????
Senior
Unfortunately, those graduates in early 30s are having Underemployment syndrome. They do not have much chance to strike. Imagine with 30% of each cohort going into local university and another 10-15% upgrade by having a degree from overseas via distance learning or going abroad. This will lead to underemployment.
Newbie
Is there any public data to show that vacancy in OCR is increasing for new and old properties?
Any current data to show that waiting time to rent our properties is increasing in OCR?
We hear agents saying rental market is soft but whatever drop in rental prices in overall data is still quite small
Junior
Bro, you understand the situation....... There is a paradigm shift.... Degree is like 'o' levels today....
Look at taiwan as well... Everyone has a degree... Admin role done by degree holders... Likewise for South Korea.
Senior
When someone buy a private property for investment, guess they have already factor in all the if, if, if,..... same go to me, I also got lots of if, if, if.......
Junior
never underestimate the number of "marginal investors" that were lured into the mkt in 2010/2011/2012.
A retail banker friend told me, due to TDSR, the number of ppl that can refinance today is like 2-3 out of 10.
You will be surprised at the number of ppl who are at the edge of a cash flow problem.
No need rate increase. No tenant plus a spread increase is enough to feel the pressure.
Plus the number of HDB upgraders that are banking on their HDB sale to finance the condo when TOP.
OCR condos and ECs are grossly overbuilt in the last 3yrs. Suddenly everyone becomes a pty investor.
The traditional view of "OCR condos are more bought for own-stay" no longer holds. The flood of "investment OCR units" will test the mkt, at the time SG Gov had determined to slow down FT intakes.
These new OCR investors are small time players, that are not necessarily sophisticated and/or experienced enough to deal with this mkt. ( just look at so many first time landlord members asking Qs in this forum)
Junior
The ratio of private to entire housing is still at 20%.
There will always be people who are at the other spectrum who are at risk.....
Look at the car market.... Check out with the sales people at marque brands and you will get a shock at the salary of the people who buy merz, bmw, audi, volvo, etc....
If they don't have a car, they can jolly well afford an investment unit....
But this discussion will never end because everyone has their own views.... Which is great.... If not everyone will not want to stay in hdb.... Hahahahaha
Senior
There are many reasons why people are not refinancing today. Its not just TDSR, its also involve earlier cooling measures involving shorter financing tenure and Loan to value ratio. Plus when banks are not competing one another for customers there will be less freebie and incentive for refinance.
While many people think that OCR will crash most, I actually think the OCR property will be more resilience purely because loan quantum is still manageable and young people are easier to find employment, and they also got the option to live with parents if they have to. Having said that, OCR region like NE part of Singapore could suffer the heaviest beating because of over supply. When economy is bad, people will down grade and when they do, they are likely to move from CCR to OCR because cost of living and housing is still cheaper. Another very important consideration is the decentralization of international school. Come next year, with OFS move to Pasir Ris, you are going to see a further drop in rental demand for CCR.
Some might argue that rich people have power to hold, I actually think they also have the power to sell at loss without having to worry too much
"Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."
Newbie
Massive OCR supplies are coming - those who bought OCR at 17xx psf will soon feel the pain of falling valuation, falling sales volume, falling rental demand. Decentralisation of international schools will not help OCR MM. Those who are looking for budget accommodation in OCR can choose HDB rentals too. These HDBs are found side by side to the OCR condos, hence in direct competition for tenants.
Expats who move from CCR to OCR will continue to seek for quality of life. When there are petrochemical plants, toxic material disposal sites, power plants, heavy industry factories, incinerators, waste water treatment facilities in the same neighbourhood, they will think twice moving there. Relocation assistance experts will advise them of these issues accordingly.
Newbie
I would say the statement still holds that the bulk of the OCR buyers esp the bigger units buyers are buying for own stay. Small time investor are actually the most prudent and many see the additional property as forced savings and measure against decreasing $$ value. They would have done all the ifs and ifs and ifs and many jointly own the extra property among siblings to spread the risk and burden. Also like many of u here those who already bought and owned units will be reluctant to sell now as with TDSR and ABSD it may mean u will not be able to buy again.
Whereas rich people who own high end properties may want to sell even at little to no profit to better make use of their cash to reinvest elsewhere. The world is their market.
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