Only 5 percent say they are buying now: Property survey

[vip]

http://propertysoul.com/2014/10/27/o...operty-survey/

Only 5 percent say they are buying now: Property survey

October 27, 2014

With developers rushing to launch or re-launch new and existing projects ahead of the festive season, the Saturday after the Hari Raya Haji public holiday saw twenty-two property advertisements in the Straits Times marketing local property projects.

Despite aggressive marketing by developers, the PropertySoul.com Blog Readership Survey revealed that only five percent are saying that they are planning to buy a private property now.

The property survey asked 355 respondents when they are planning to buy a private property. It was conducted online between September 5 and 23 this year on readers of PropertySoul.com.


Prefer to rent than buy

This is despite the fact that 10 percent of respondents are currently renting. Among them, only 5.6 percent are planning to buy. The result shows that most renters still prefer to continue renting instead of taking the risk to buy now for fear of prices dropping further after their purchase.

A total of 13 percent of respondents have no definite timeframe to buy a private property. Among the non-buying group, half of them have no intention to buy at all. Another half are waiting on the sidelines and expecting to buy at lower prices. Some are even anticipating a recession that may result in a major market correction before they will consider buying again.



Loss of market confidence

Contrary to the common belief that the market is affected by the property cooling measures, including additional buyer or seller stamp duties and the total debt servicing ratio (TDSR) framework, only one percent of respondents are saying that they are waiting for the uplift of buying restrictions by the government before considering buying again.

The results demonstrated that it is the eroding confidence in the property market, not the cooling measures, that is to blame for the weak demand in private residential properties. With no sign of recovery under a softening property market, potential buyers are adopting a ‘wait and see’ approach on property purchase.

The opportunistic and overzealous buyers seen in the last few years are gone. It proves that the fad in properties is not sustainable when properties with historically-high prices can no longer prove their value. Once high-price-low-yield makes property investment unattractive, investor appetite will naturally shrink.


Worsening of oversupply

The worsening imbalance between supply and demand is adding up to the problem. According to the URA data, 37.7 percent of uncompleted private residential units (excluding ECs) remained unsold as of 3rd Quarter 2014. There is now a total of 97,180 private housing and EC units in the overall pipeline supply. The influx of 20,852 units in 2014 and 23,769 units in 2015 to the market will definitely create a housing glut in the next few years.

That said, there is still good news that a significant number of survey respondents (42 percent) plan to buy in one to three years while another 27 percent plan to do so after three to five years.

The demand from first-time buyers, upgraders and investors will always be there. The current situation is a see-saw battle between the buyers and sellers. It will persist for some time and little can upset the balance unless there is a major crisis happening in the market.

[EBD]

Looks like cooling measures are having the desired effects...... finally.

Shame it took so many rounds of them before some people finally got the message.

[walkthetiger]

Looks like cooling measures are having the desired effects...... finally.

Shame it took so many rounds of them before some people finally got the message.

Looking at it the other way, many investors here had MTB, with just the 5% buyers around; it tells us most of them don’t have a buyer now at all… price needs to fall further to bring buyers back… The bottom is yet to come…

[Arcachon]

So how low will MTB buy,

example : Southbank 2 Bedroom SGD bought in 2006 SGD 535,000.

Terrasse 3 Bedroom PH sold in 2011 SGD 1,305,800.

When I told my friend in 2010 I bought Southbank, they told me why I did not tell them to buy.

I ask them a simple question.

Will they buy a car or buy a condo given they have SGD 100,000 cash and the answer they give tell them why I did not tell them.

[Ringo33]

Those who buy when majority are staying away could turn out to be shrewd move.

[stl67]

Air Storm + Land Storm also coming .. Beware

[Arcachon]

Money printing machine this time in ECB

Draghi Sets Stimulus Pace as ECB Reveals Covered-Bond Purchases

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...purchases.html

nvestors will be handed a clue today in to just how aggressive Mario Draghi is willing to be.

At 3:30 p.m. in Frankfurt, the European Central Bank will reveal how much it spent on covered bonds last week after returning to that market for a third time as part of a renewed bid to stave off deflation.

The central bank bought at least 800 million euros ($1 billion) of assets from Portugal to Germany in the three days since the program began on Oct. 20, traders said last week. Formal details will help them divine how quickly the ECB president can reach his target of expanding the institution’s balance sheet by as much as 1 trillion euros.

Euro 1,000,000,000 in 3 days = 333,333,333.33 a day = 13,888,888.89 an Hours = 23,1481.48 a minute

[imjason]

probably I'm the 5% BUT if the price is right which is future price of at least 15%-20% off the tag.

I reckon lesser and lesser landed transacted and it's a fact as sellers r still asking high while buyer r still standing aside. It's waiting game now!

No hurry - wait
Hurry - rent

I'm eating pop corn & watch the price - More exciting news ahead !!!

[Sandiwara]

From Historical perspective. In this kind of waiting game. Usually who will need to let it go first?
Anyone can share their experience?

[walkthetiger]

probably I'm the 5% BUT if the price is right which is future price of at least 15%-20% off the tag.

I reckon lesser and lesser landed transacted and it's a fact as sellers r still asking high while buyer r still standing aside. It's waiting game now!

No hurry - wait
Hurry - rent

I'm eating pop corn & watch the price - More exciting news ahead !!!

Any sellers can shout their properties worth millionsss....but with no taker, then just let the fishmonger let his fishes turn "咸鱼"....有价没市....

[Arcachon]

Any sellers can shout their properties worth millionsss....but with no taker, then just let the fishmonger let his fishes turn "咸鱼"....有价没市....

Interesting, remind me of my 5 room selling experience.

Bought in 1995 for SGD 250,000 for 126 SqM, Selling price was SGD 225,600 and premium of 10% SGD 22,560.

Lease start 1997. Collect Key 1996 MOP 2001.

At that time opposite unit sold for SGD 390,000. in 2001.

People ask me what price will I sell, I told them SGD 500,000. People say "咸鱼"....有价没市

Opposite Block sold for SGD 680,000 Dec 2013.

Again people ask what price will I sell, I told them SGD 690,000. People say "咸鱼"....有价没市.

Got to wait till someone willing to pay me to move.

[walkthetiger]

From Historical perspective. In this kind of waiting game. Usually who will need to let it go first?
Anyone can share their experience?

Of course those have weaker holding power waiting for buyers to bail them... ... their unit already to sell below bank valuation....

[teddybear]

Key points from Mr Khaw:
1) Since 2009 low, property price goes up average 60%.
2) Since 2009 low, Singaporeans' income goes up average 30%.
3) Now property price already drop to average 50%, so closer to income increase.

Analysis Using same logic:
1) Since 2009 low, CCR properties already drop to 30% increase vs 2009 low (due to cooling measures). However, high-income Singaporeans' income had increased 80-100% !!! So, CCR property prices (now $2200-$2400 psf) look very cheap vs income increase!

2) Since 2009 low, OCR properties have gone up >140% vs 2009 low to current around $1200 psf but has barely dropped (because cooling measures targeting foreigners' buying not effect at all on OCR!). However, middle-income Singaporeans' income had increase only about 20% !!! So, OCR property prices look very expensive vs income increase, so OCR property price has a lot of room to drop (to closer to 2009 lows of $500 psf !!!)!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://propertysoul.com/2014/10/27/o...operty-survey/

Only 5 percent say they are buying now: Property survey

October 27, 2014

With developers rushing to launch or re-launch new and existing projects ahead of the festive season, the Saturday after the Hari Raya Haji public holiday saw twenty-two property advertisements in the Straits Times marketing local property projects.

Despite aggressive marketing by developers, the PropertySoul.com Blog Readership Survey revealed that only five percent are saying that they are planning to buy a private property now.

The property survey asked 355 respondents when they are planning to buy a private property. It was conducted online between September 5 and 23 this year on readers of PropertySoul.com.


Prefer to rent than buy

This is despite the fact that 10 percent of respondents are currently renting. Among them, only 5.6 percent are planning to buy. The result shows that most renters still prefer to continue renting instead of taking the risk to buy now for fear of prices dropping further after their purchase.

A total of 13 percent of respondents have no definite timeframe to buy a private property. Among the non-buying group, half of them have no intention to buy at all. Another half are waiting on the sidelines and expecting to buy at lower prices. Some are even anticipating a recession that may result in a major market correction before they will consider buying again.



Loss of market confidence

Contrary to the common belief that the market is affected by the property cooling measures, including additional buyer or seller stamp duties and the total debt servicing ratio (TDSR) framework, only one percent of respondents are saying that they are waiting for the uplift of buying restrictions by the government before considering buying again.

The results demonstrated that it is the eroding confidence in the property market, not the cooling measures, that is to blame for the weak demand in private residential properties. With no sign of recovery under a softening property market, potential buyers are adopting a ‘wait and see’ approach on property purchase.

The opportunistic and overzealous buyers seen in the last few years are gone. It proves that the fad in properties is not sustainable when properties with historically-high prices can no longer prove their value. Once high-price-low-yield makes property investment unattractive, investor appetite will naturally shrink.


Worsening of oversupply

The worsening imbalance between supply and demand is adding up to the problem. According to the URA data, 37.7 percent of uncompleted private residential units (excluding ECs) remained unsold as of 3rd Quarter 2014. There is now a total of 97,180 private housing and EC units in the overall pipeline supply. The influx of 20,852 units in 2014 and 23,769 units in 2015 to the market will definitely create a housing glut in the next few years.

That said, there is still good news that a significant number of survey respondents (42 percent) plan to buy in one to three years while another 27 percent plan to do so after three to five years.

The demand from first-time buyers, upgraders and investors will always be there. The current situation is a see-saw battle between the buyers and sellers. It will persist for some time and little can upset the balance unless there is a major crisis happening in the market.

[newbie11]

Visitors to a site that scream don't buy now probably attract the same group thinking. If teddy polls his followers on ccr, they will scream cheap too lol

[teddybear]

I am quite sure OCR is very expensive now vs 2009 lows.

For example, in Jurong, 2009 lows is about $400+ to $500 psf. Now JGateway $1700+ psf!
For example, in Hougang, 2009 lows also about $500 psf. Now easily $1300+ psf!

Jurong and OCR private condos prices are so seriously over-priced that people have to hide by lumping them with CCR prices and say AVERAGE PRICE ONLY UP ABOUT 50% from 2009 lows !!!!!!!!!!!!

They can't just tell the truth about prices of various regions? Can they don't point at a donkey and tell us it is a horse, we got brain ok??????

I provide with facts.
If you think CCR is expensive, can provide examples with facts and figures?

Visitors to a site that scream don't buy now probably attract the same group thinking. If teddy polls his followers on ccr, they will scream cheap too lol

[Ringo33]

I am quite sure OCR is very expensive now vs 2009 lows.

For example, in Jurong, 2009 lows is about $400+ to $500 psf. Now JGateway $1700+ psf!
For example, in Hougang, 2009 lows also about $500 psf. Now easily $1300+ psf!

Jurong and OCR private condos prices are so seriously over-priced that people have to hide by lumping them with CCR prices and say AVERAGE PRICE ONLY UP ABOUT 50% from 2009 lows !!!!!!!!!!!!

They can't just tell the truth about prices of various regions? Can they don't point at a donkey and tell us it is a horse, we got brain ok??????

I provide with facts.
If you think CCR is expensive, can provide examples with facts and figures?

CCR is not all the same. If you located in the wrong side of CCR, you will be contented with 2000psf for FH property.. If you are located on the other side LH99 CCR property has already touch 5000psf. As the saying goes, property game is all about location, location. And the biggest myth you would ever hear is this forumm is buying the worst unit in CCR is better than buying the best unit in OCR. And that are solid fact to prove its a myth.

[teddybear]

How do you define "best unit in OCR"? By price only????

In this case, I can fore-tell that JGateway, marketed as the "best unit in OCR" and hence got carrot head buying at $1700+ psf, will not be able to hold up that kind of price with surrounding condos going for $900+ to $1200 psf (which is already over-priced according to Mr Khaw, Singapore Minister for National Development, when he referenced property price should be close to 2009 low and adjusted for income increase. And mind you, 2009 low in Jurong was only $400-500 psf)!

CCR is not all the same. If you located in the wrong side of CCR, you will be contented with 2000psf for FH property.. If you are located on the other side LH99 CCR property has already touch 5000psf. As the saying goes, property game is all about location, location. And the biggest myth you would ever hear is this forumm is buying the worst unit in CCR is better than buying the best unit in OCR. And that are solid fact to prove its a myth.

[Ringo33]

How do you define "best unit in OCR"? By price only????

In this case, I can fore-tell that JGateway, marketed as the "best unit in OCR" and hence got carrot head buying at $1700+ psf, will not be able to hold up that kind of price with surrounding condos going for $900+ to $1200 psf (which is already over-priced according to Mr Khaw, Singapore Minister for National Development, when he referenced property price should be close to 2009 low and adjusted for income increase. And mind you, 2009 low in Jurong was only $400-500 psf)!

As the saying goes, dont try to teach an old dog new trick.

You have already MTB on OCR, MM and you are going MTB on CCR too.

[teddybear]

Don't play play with Minister for National Development!
If he want property price to drop, he will be able to!
See, CCR prices already crash >30% !
Now is OCR turn (we are already seeing signs)..................................

Given that CCR private condo prices went up 50% since 2009 lows and then drop 30%,
what is going to OCR private condo prices that went up by >140% since 2009 lows and have just show sign of dropping?
May be drop 30%-50% or even more???

As the saying goes, dont try to teach an old dog new trick.

You have already MTB on OCR, MM and you are going MTB on CCR too.

How do you define "best unit in OCR"? By price only????

In this case, I can fore-tell that JGateway, marketed as the "best unit in OCR" and hence got carrot head buying at $1700+ psf, will not be able to hold up that kind of price with surrounding condos going for $900+ to $1200 psf (which is already over-priced according to Mr Khaw, Singapore Minister for National Development, when he referenced property price should be close to 2009 low and adjusted for income increase. And mind you, 2009 low in Jurong was only $400-500 psf)!

[Ringo33]

Don't play play with Minister for National Development!
If he want property price to drop, he will be able to!
See, CCR prices already crash >30% !
Now is OCR turn (we are already seeing signs)..................................

Given that CCR private condo prices went up 50% since 2009 lows and then drop 30%,
what is going to OCR private condo prices that went up by >140% since 2009 lows and have just show sign of dropping?
May be drop 30%-50% or even more???

You have tried desperately to talk down MM and OCR in this forum. So based on your track record, I will have to take your comment on OCR as a blessing and compliment.

[teddybear]

Me talk down OCR in this forum?

Please see the youtube video in this link below:

http://forums.condosingapore.com/sho...erstand/page14

Please watch and listen carefully from the "horse mouth"! Please don't play play with what Singapore Minister for National Development Mr Khaw had said! He said property price should be referenced to 2009 low and its increase should be inline with income increase! I didn't say this, Mr Khaw said this! I am just pointing out to people don't know that OCR property price like those in Jurong had gone up by >140% since 2009 low!!!!!!!!

Are you going to say that Mr Khaw desperately talking down property prices? If so you better watched out! Mr Khaw has the power to implement more new cooling measures to ensure that the property price increase since 2009 low (of $400-500 psf) is inline with income increase!

You have tried desperately to talk down MM and OCR in this forum. So based on your track record, I will have to take your comment on OCR as a blessing and compliment.

[Ringo33]

Me talk down OCR in this forum?

Please see the youtube video in this link below:

http://forums.condosingapore.com/sho...erstand/page14

Please watch and listen carefully from the "horse mouth"! Please don't play play with what Singapore Minister for National Development Mr Khaw had said! He said property price should be referenced to 2009 low and its increase should be inline with income increase! I didn't say this, Mr Khaw said this! I am just pointing out to people don't know that OCR property price like those in Jurong had gone up by >140% since 2009 low!!!!!!!!

Are you going to say that Mr Khaw desperately talking down property prices? If so you better watched out! Mr Khaw has the power to implement more new cooling measures to ensure that the property price increase since 2009 low (of $400-500 psf) is inline with income increase!

You must be very desperate to quote what KBW said to make it your own.
Ki Kor Liang Ki Kor Chor?

[Jem]

Why isn't this added to the conclusion? - people are not buying mostly due to TDSR constraints and also they understand that they will not see property prices rising at a pace like before. People are putting their dollar into alternative investments that they feel will see faster returns. Other than this there are also many other angles to examine. Our population demographics have also changed. We have many more new citizens. Some of them do not see a necessity to own a property and are happy to just rent.

[Jem]

I believe VIP has said she has disposed all of her investments properties. Definitely she's waiting and hoping to see prices dropping to an all time low so she can start to acquire again. The survey respondents, results and explanation are highly skewed IMO.

[Jem]

Analysis Using same logic:
1) Since 2009 low, CCR properties already drop to 30% increase vs 2009 low (due to cooling measures). However, high-income Singaporeans' income had increased 80-100% !!! So, CCR property prices (now $2200-$2400 psf) look very cheap vs income increase!

2) Since 2009 low, OCR properties have gone up >140% vs 2009 low to current around $1200 psf but has barely dropped (because cooling measures targeting foreigners' buying not effect at all on OCR!). However, middle-income Singaporeans' income had increase only about 20% !!! So, OCR property prices look very expensive vs income increase, so OCR property price has a lot of room to drop (to closer to 2009 lows of $500 psf !!!)!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Actually I see it the other way. Singapore is really a very small country. In reality it is just a city. As SG gets more and more developed especially in the RCR and OCR neighborhoods, the price gap for properties between the different regions will naturally close up more. Of cuz there'll will still always be prestige developments that will always command a price premium. Retail and F&B outlets are often more crowded in the evenings and weekends in neighbourhood town centres than those located downtown.

[Jem]

I don't think the end game is to have property prices drop too much. If it drops alot further that there will be many who will have a problem. Even our policy makers will be losing $$$ unless they too have disposed all their properties?
The desired effect is for property prices to rise at a much slower pace in the future.

If prices really drop much more we will have a different kind of recession problem and the reality is that then only the very few cash flow rich will benefit.

[henryhk]

Don't play play with Minister for National Development!
If he want property price to drop, he will be able to!
See, CCR prices already crash >30% !
Now is OCR turn (we are already seeing signs)..................................

Given that CCR private condo prices went up 50% since 2009 lows and then drop 30%,
what is going to OCR private condo prices that went up by >140% since 2009 lows and have just show sign of dropping?
May be drop 30%-50% or even more???

Depends where u buy....if not near the mrt, I suggest u sell and buy one near the mrt....and also if u stay north, better shift somewhere central....advice from someone 15 years in the market

[Yuki]

Actually I see it the other way. Singapore is really a very small country. In reality it is just a city. As SG gets more and more developed especially in the RCR and OCR neighborhoods, the price gap for properties between the different regions will naturally close up more. Of cuz there'll will still always be prestige developments that will always command a price premium. Retail and F&B outlets are often more crowded in the evenings and weekends in neighbourhood town centres than those located downtown.

I agree. Decentralisation efforts at play.

Government can't afford to centralise everything at CCR.

Aiyo..
Seriously you guys can turn any thread into the same line of argument everywhere you go. It's kinda tiring to see the same old debate everytime.

[teddybear]

Look at London, about the size of Singapore........
London is really quite developed, and is like Singapore 10-20 years later.............. They even have a better and more connected underground train system than Singapore!

However, did the property price gap in London Zone 4 (similar to Singapore's OCR) with such good train connectivity closes up more with property price in London Zone 1 (similar to Singapore's CCR)?
The answer is obviously "NO"! In fact, the price ratio between London Zone 1 to London 4 can be almost 10x !!!
Singapore will likely be like London 10-20 years down the road!

Actually I see it the other way. Singapore is really a very small country. In reality it is just a city. As SG gets more and more developed especially in the RCR and OCR neighborhoods, the price gap for properties between the different regions will naturally close up more. Of cuz there'll will still always be prestige developments that will always command a price premium. Retail and F&B outlets are often more crowded in the evenings and weekends in neighbourhood town centres than those located downtown.

[teddybear]

Isn't the cash flow rich Singaporeans already benefiting from those selling desperating in CCR because of TDSR, foreigners not buying etc?

TDSR and ABSD will both contribute to cause property prices to drop and crash, and will ultimately benefiting those cash flow rich and the rich to pick up "durians".....................

I don't think the end game is to have property prices drop too much. If it drops alot further that there will be many who will have a problem. Even our policy makers will be losing $$$ unless they too have disposed all their properties?
The desired effect is for property prices to rise at a much slower pace in the future.

If prices really drop much more we will have a different kind of recession problem and the reality is that then only the very few cash flow rich will benefit.