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Thread: Achieving a meaningful market correction of property prices

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    Default Achieving a meaningful market correction of property prices

    http://propertysoul.com/2014/11/05/m...et-correction/

    Achieving a meaningful market correction of property prices


    November 5, 2014

    Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam told the press that there is “some distance to go in achieving a meaningful correction”, hinting that the property cooling measures are here to stay.

    I am surprised by Mr Tharman’s creative use of the word ‘meaningful’. It is an adjective or a descriptive word that leaves much room for imagination. It is up to the target audience to figure out the real meaning behind it.

    When the government replies with a definite yes or no answer, you are certain what is next.
    When the government replies with a vague answer, you are confused what to do next.
    When the government replies with a descriptive answer, you are fear of what will be next.
    - Property Soul



    How to define meaningful?

    The word ‘meaningful’ means significant or serious, meaning to say that the government would like to see a sizable market correction before they consider uplifting any buying restriction.

    So, what does it mean for this meaningful word? Is it a major correction in price level? A massive slump in transaction volume? A prolonged depressed market? A big drop in the number of first-time or multiple-property buyers? Is it more meaningful to measure in percentage, indexes, values or length of time?


    Waiting for the meaningful time

    When the Singapore government will call for an election is everyone’s guess. The timing of the next election also gives uphold of cooling measures a whole new meaning.

    With a majority of voters who find private properties unattainable or overpriced, it is meaningful to sacrifice the interests of a comparatively smaller group – namely the stakeholders in the real estate industry, including the developers, agents, consultants, mortgagees, landlords and owners. Afterall, it is a great opportunity to narrow the widening gap between the haves and don’t haves in the society.

    On the other hand, if relaxation of cooling measures comes too late, and the property market continues to correct itself, it can make the final withdrawal meaningless.

    I’m afraid that if you look at a thing long enough, it loses all of its meaning.
    - Andy Warhol, American artist


    Take the example of a primary school student who needs to do correction for a wrong answer. There are still mistakes after the correction and he is asked to redo the correction again. But there is still room for improvement so the teacher asks the student to redo it again and again. When the teacher finally puts that long-awaited tick there, the whole thing has long become meaningless in the eyes of the student.

    From 1998 to 1999 and 2001 to 2005, there were countless introductions of property purchase incentives – suspension of land sales, lift of capital gains tax, property tax rebates, lower cash deposit, higher loan-to-value limit up to 90 percent, cash rebates and interest-free loans from the banks, etc. – but every time the market responded with a lower PPI (Property Price Index) and transaction volume compared with the last quarter.

    Property, like comedy, is all about timing. Action is futile when it comes too early or too late.


    What it means for different parties


    We all have our own vested interest. Every time there is a new policy, we give it thumbs up or down depending on how we can benefit from it.

    1. The public deserves some meaningful data.

    Both the URA and SRX data do not reflect the rebates and subsidies from developers to buyers. Lodgment of caveats is also based on voluntary submission. Property data is incomplete and PPI is inflated. What is the meaning of reporting the data when they do not mean to represent the full picture? (Read more in my previous post Developer invited you to play Project Discount)

    2. Home buyers are waiting for a meaningful correction.

    Mr Tharman’s words that the government cannot let “property prices run ahead of the growth of household incomes over the long term” are sweet as honey to people looking to buy an affordable private property. His comment especially means something to the home upgraders. They are all waiting for property prices to fall back to a level in par with general affordability again.

    3. Sellers find cooling measures too mean.

    The cooling measures coincide with market softening and expected oversupply in the next two years. No one likes the feeling of being left holding the hot potato when the music stops. Over-stocked developers and desperate sellers are most likely to be the parties who trigger the domino effect in a market correction.

    4. Investors are waiting for meaningful hints to enter market again.


    National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan mentioned that there is still room for prices to moderate. The worse the market sentiment, the more often the sellers tell the media that “market shows signs of recovery”, “prices will pick up next year”, “market has reached bottom”, etc. The contradicting comments are confusing investors who are holding their horses.

    5. More owners will end up with a meaningless investment.

    With the impact of falling rental demand starts to surface, more landlords are feeling the pain of their already very humble return of under 3 percent. It is meaningless to hold onto an investment that can’t generate a positive return.

    Owners are also under the constant threats from continuing softening of the market, the possible hike in interest rates, and the unexpected onset of another recession. Those with little holding power are just hoping to survive a meaningful correction with their meaningless investment.

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    1. The public deserves some meaningful data.

    Too many data, you become data analyst not property investor.

    2. Home buyers are waiting for a meaningful correction.

    MTB will wait for price to fall, when price fall they will wait for meaningful price raise.

    3. Sellers find cooling measures too mean.

    Seller after selling keep money in the Bank for meaningful interest.

    4. Investors are waiting for meaningful hints to enter market again.

    If you are waiting for meaningful hint, better buy 4 D your chance is higher buying.

    5. More owners will end up with a meaningless investment.

    Property investment meaningless ? I don't know what others is meaningful.

    Property investment can use it to hedge against inflation, can give it to the children,
    can use as holiday home, can use as self storage, can use as office, etc.
    anyone got no meaningful use of property can sent me a message.

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    You just have to give it to Tharman for creating meaningsful conversations and dialogues, and for our favourite forum to share our meanings.

    Meaningsful indeed!
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Meaningful correction cannot exist in a vacuum. It is relational term used to connect the meaning between 2 or more entities. Correction means adjustment usually from one price baseline to another price baseline. Price Baseline is one entity. The other entity is Income Baseline. Meaningful correction means that the 2 baselines ( price and income ) must provide the meaning for one and the other and vice versa. Tharman is saying he didm't see the meaningful connection between 2 baselines.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wunderkind View Post
    Meaningful correction cannot exist in a vacuum. It is relational term used to connect the meaning between 2 or more entities. Correction means adjustment usually from one price baseline to another price baseline. Price Baseline is one entity. The other entity is Income Baseline. Meaningful correction means that the 2 baselines ( price and income ) must provide the meaning for one and the other and vice versa. Tharman is saying he didm't see the meaningful connection between 2 baselines.
    So one possible interpretation of his prediction is that housing prices will not be moving down, but neither will it be moving up. But there will be a freeze of prices until incomes actually catches up with the prices. Or that housing price may still rise but will be way slower than income rises. Possible scenario?
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    I think it more important to see what the government do rather than what the government says.

    a) If Tharman wish to see a bigger correction, he would have introduce another round of cooling measures instead of words.

    b) If government intend to see a major correction, they would not have cut the GLS confirmed list and BTO supply.
    And when they do, its usually a sign that they are doing to balance the supply to meet slowdown in demand.

    c) Tharman is the head of MOF, and he is well aware of Singapore banks exposure to the mortgage loan.
    A crash is property prices will send shock wave to the banking industry and NPL will balloon.
    This is certainly not going to be good for Singapore position as a financial center.
    "Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."

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    Politicians are very good at smoking...

    I would guess they ...like the rest of us couldn't really predict what is going to happen...

    Coz it could be a drastic price correction, triggered by a dreadful combination of factors, events...and thats not their intended effect.

    Meaningful is a neutral word can be taken positive, negative what so ever.
    Last edited by Yuki; 06-11-14 at 00:19.

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    Can Singapore property be cheaper than KL, Jakarta, Bangkok, if no than that is the level.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    From this video, the stats shows that even right NOW we are in a situation of under supply and over demand. However we are seeing more vacant homes now than ever. So either
    A) the stats are wrong somehow
    B) more people are living on the streets or somewhere that we do not know
    C) the average people living in a household in SG is not 3.53 but a higher figure?
    D) Or???

    So where is the discrepancy? So perhaps it's a good time to poll how many people we have today living under the same household. For me it's 1.5.

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    Unless there is a major financial crisis, my view is that just logically thinking the prices wouldn't drop more than an average of 10 to 15% therefore the correction. The slowness we are seeing in the market today are very much due to TDSR. Home purchase is always a no 1 priority for locals here. So the money they would have spent into getting a new car would now instead be put aside for a home purchase and also to keep themselves eligible for a home loan under the TDSR. The ones who are looking at 2nd property and not buying cuz nearly everyone I know who are thinking of doing so is waiting for election time next year cuz many believe the ABSD will be removed or reduced come elections. Whether it will be removed or reduced well only time will tell.

    So once the market got used to these measures, transaction volumes should pick up again.

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    10 to 15%? Wow, that will be a sale worth waiting for! Very meaningful!


    Quote Originally Posted by Jem View Post
    Unless there is a major financial crisis, my view is that just logically thinking the prices wouldn't drop more than an average of 10 to 15% therefore the correction. The slowness we are seeing in the market today are very much due to TDSR. Home purchase is always a no 1 priority for locals here. So the money they would have spent into getting a new car would now instead be put aside for a home purchase and also to keep themselves eligible for a home loan under the TDSR. The ones who are looking at 2nd property and not buying cuz nearly everyone I know who are thinking of doing so is waiting for election time next year cuz many believe the ABSD will be removed or reduced come elections. Whether it will be removed or reduced well only time will tell.

    So once the market got used to these measures, transaction volumes should pick up again.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    10 to 15%? Wow, that will be a sale worth waiting for! Very meaningful!
    If the good location properties reduced 20%, surely those not so good ones will be much much more then 20%.....we are not too far from it now ... just wait a bit longer for it to take shape soon..
    A bottle of Lafite '82 for all my coffeeshop friends yesterday...many don't know what is it....haha...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33 View Post
    I think it more important to see what the government do rather than what the government says.
    You mean the government DO NOT DO what they SAY? What is the right term to call such people? Hypocrite? Wow! That is really slander man! Please provide prove of your accusations! Don't any how make accusations!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33 View Post
    c) Tharman is the head of MOF, and he is well aware of Singapore banks exposure to the mortgage loan.
    A crash is property prices will send shock wave to the banking industry and NPL will balloon.
    This is certainly not going to be good for Singapore position as a financial center.
    Regardless of whatever you said, FACT is, CCR private property prices has already crashed! Recent transactions many are at 20-30% less than recent peak price!

    However, OCR private prices are still near peak price, so for OCR to drop >20% is just a matter of time and don't think govt will do anything since CCR had already dropped >20%! Do anything before OCR drop 20% give people impression that their way of implementing policy is NOT EQUITABLE and do not treat all fairly!


    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33 View Post
    I think it more important to see what the government do rather than what the government says.

    a) If Tharman wish to see a bigger correction, he would have introduce another round of cooling measures instead of words.

    b) If government intend to see a major correction, they would not have cut the GLS confirmed list and BTO supply.
    And when they do, its usually a sign that they are doing to balance the supply to meet slowdown in demand.

    c) Tharman is the head of MOF, and he is well aware of Singapore banks exposure to the mortgage loan.
    A crash is property prices will send shock wave to the banking industry and NPL will balloon.
    This is certainly not going to be good for Singapore position as a financial center.

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    Not more than 10 - 15% islandwide average and this is just how I feel and think of cuz. CCR highest at say $4Kpsf even at 20% reduction it's still a staggering $3.2Kpsf.

    Like how the forum has classified - Suburban Singapore - where most Singaporean citizens live.
    If the fixed asset value of most Sgreans see a staggering drop like another forumner has mentioned, think the ruling party will lose many votes~
    The idea is to slow down the pace of property appreciation not to introduce a major crash.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    10 to 15%? Wow, that will be a sale worth waiting for! Very meaningful!
    There are quite a few new launches which have already introduced a 10% discount at relaunch. No need to wait anymore
    People are not buying cuz they dun want to pay ABSD still. and of cuz the TDSR limits even more. Many are re-looking at their finances, decoupling and liquidating so that they can afford to pay the 50% downpayment. This takes time to achieve.

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    You mean the government DO NOT DO what they SAY? What is the right term to call such people? Hypocrite? Wow! That is really slander man! Please provide prove of your accusations! Don't any how make accusations!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



    Regardless of whatever you said, FACT is, CCR private property prices has already crashed! Recent transactions many are at 20-30% less than recent peak price!

    However, OCR private prices are still near peak price, so for OCR to drop >20% is just a matter of time and don't think govt will do anything since CCR had already dropped >20%! Do anything before OCR drop 20% give people impression that their way of implementing policy is NOT EQUITABLE and do not treat all fairly!

    We all know how painful it is for CCR property owners and investors, particularly those who bought in the wrong side of CCR.
    The OCR you talking about is not the OCR of yesteryear and that is all part of our government plan to decentralize commercial activities.
    If you still dont see it, then perhaps you should invest in soft toys like teddybear instead.
    "Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."

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    The govt and the ministers like Khaw and Tharman keep talking about property price increase since 2009 is too high because income didn't catch up with property price increase, so they mean it right? Are you telling us they don't mean what they say?

    So, look at OCR - e.g. Jurong : Price at 2009 is about $500 psf.
    Now Jurong average $1200 psf, meaning UP 140% !!!
    Look at the people working in Jurong - Their income only up slightly more than 20% since 2009.

    So it is obvious that Minister Khaw and Tharman already clearly stated that OCR property prices are just too high already!!!

    What govt plan you talking about? You mean because of decentralization, what Minister Khaw and Tharman said openly is NOT true? You mean it is govt and Minister Khaw and Tharman's intention for OCR property price to go up 140% and people income only go up 20% and contradict their own statements??? You still insisting that they are hypocrites?????????? Stop your slandering!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33 View Post
    We all know how painful it is for CCR property owners and investors, particularly those who bought in the wrong side of CCR.
    The OCR you talking about is not the OCR of yesteryear and that is all part of our government plan to decentralize commercial activities.
    If you still dont see it, then perhaps you should invest in soft toys like teddybear instead.

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    The govt and the ministers like Khaw and Tharman keep talking about property price increase since 2009 is too high because income didn't catch up with property price increase, so they mean it right? Are you telling us they don't mean what they say?

    So, look at OCR - e.g. Jurong : Price at 2009 is about $500 psf.
    Now Jurong average $1200 psf, meaning UP 140% !!!
    Look at the people working in Jurong - Their income only up slightly more than 20% since 2009.

    So it is obvious that Minister Khaw and Tharman already clearly stated that OCR property prices are just too high already!!!

    What govt plan you talking about? You mean because of decentralization, what Minister Khaw and Tharman said openly is NOT true? You mean it is govt and Minister Khaw and Tharman's intention for OCR property price to go up 140% and people income only go up 20% and contradict their own statements??? You still insisting that they are hypocrites?????????? Stop your slandering!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Can show what is the GLS psf ppr , if the Land is selling for SGD 500 psf ppr than how to have SGD 500 psf.

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    The govt and the ministers like Khaw and Tharman keep talking about property price increase since 2009 is too high because income didn't catch up with property price increase, so they mean it right? Are you telling us they don't mean what they say?

    So, look at OCR - e.g. Jurong : Price at 2009 is about $500 psf.
    Now Jurong average $1200 psf, meaning UP 140% !!!
    Look at the people working in Jurong - Their income only up slightly more than 20% since 2009.

    So it is obvious that Minister Khaw and Tharman already clearly stated that OCR property prices are just too high already!!!

    What govt plan you talking about? You mean because of decentralization, what Minister Khaw and Tharman said openly is NOT true? You mean it is govt and Minister Khaw and Tharman's intention for OCR property price to go up 140% and people income only go up 20% and contradict their own statements??? You still insisting that they are hypocrites?????????? Stop your slandering!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    If JLD property prices doesnt rise as a result of JLD development, Khaw Boon Wan and Tharman will need to be fired
    "Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."

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    The meaning of every thread gets distorted into bouts between OCR and CCR, and JLD vs CCR.

    We have to accept that the CMs plus population distribution do not affect every district equally. The CMs are relatively new in our system, population figures keep changing as well.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    It's meaningful to wait for someone who sold all and waiting. It's meaningless for someone who don't intend to sell or can't find anything meaningful to invest in.

    It depends on your vested interest or lack of.

    All I can say is there are god damn many waiting to buy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon View Post
    1. The public deserves some meaningful data.

    Too many data, you become data analyst not property investor.

    2. Home buyers are waiting for a meaningful correction.

    MTB will wait for price to fall, when price fall they will wait for meaningful price raise.

    3. Sellers find cooling measures too mean.

    Seller after selling keep money in the Bank for meaningful interest.

    4. Investors are waiting for meaningful hints to enter market again.

    If you are waiting for meaningful hint, better buy 4 D your chance is higher buying.

    5. More owners will end up with a meaningless investment.

    Property investment meaningless ? I don't know what others is meaningful.

    Property investment can use it to hedge against inflation, can give it to the children,
    can use as holiday home, can use as self storage, can use as office, etc.
    anyone got no meaningful use of property can sent me a message.
    You r getting better hehe

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    Thanks

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    Quote Originally Posted by newbie11 View Post
    It's meaningful to wait for someone who sold all and waiting. It's meaningless for someone who don't intend to sell or can't find anything meaningful to invest in.

    It depends on your vested interest or lack of.

    All I can say is there are god damn many waiting to buy.
    Not totally true.

    There is meaning for all in terms of costs of goods, cost of living, inflation, conversion of investment types and yields, retirement issues, whether or not one is vested.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by newbie11 View Post
    It's meaningful to wait for someone who sold all and waiting. It's meaningless for someone who don't intend to sell or can't find anything meaningful to invest in.

    It depends on your vested interest or lack of.

    All I can say is there are god damn many waiting to buy.
    True. Count me as one of the "many waiting to buy". However, I've not sold everything and I won't be buying unless prices drop by 25% from this point. I'm a true investor so I have an agenda just like all others. Those waiting for our support can wait long long.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pmet View Post
    True. Count me as one of the "many waiting to buy". However, I've not sold everything and I won't be buying unless prices drop by 25% from this point. I'm a true investor so I have an agenda just like all others. Those waiting for our support can wait long long.
    A smart investor indeed, surely you have plenty of time torturing those fellows with weak holding power; I see there is no need to rush to buy for investment at the moment….... Rental price war has just begun and many other things about to surface one after another, take more time……but there are also many people who have been waiting long for their first house, probably this group can't wait that long
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    Quote Originally Posted by walkthetiger View Post
    A smart investor indeed, surely you have plenty of time torturing those fellows with weak holding power; I see there is no need to rush to buy for investment at the moment….... Rental price war has just begun and many other things about to surface one after another, take more time……but there are also many people who have been waiting long for their first house, probably this group can't wait that long
    LOL I like the way you put it "torturing those fellows"

    It's about timing and you will know when the sellers go begging for your money. You and I seem to share the same sentiments and enjoy the same "movie" together.

    As a Singaporean, I actually pity those first timers who can't wait and are caught holding on to their inflated assets. But time and time again, I've to overcome my own emotions and remind myself that this is about investment.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pmet View Post
    LOL I like the way you put it "torturing those fellows"

    It's about timing and you will know when the sellers go begging for your money. You and I seem to share the same sentiments and enjoy the same "movie" together.

    As a Singaporean, I actually pity those first timers who can't wait and are caught holding on to their inflated assets. But time and time again, I've to overcome my own emotions and remind myself that this is about investment.
    Wise.

    Amusingly I see some others reading/searching/studying information from everywhere, only ended getting more confuse of what is happening. They “读死书”.
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    to me, the garmen have really confused everyone. the whole exercise should be achieving affordable housing as those less than 20% ppl has been shouting. the focus should be on resale hdb or bto... but now, the target seems to be on those private property owner. again, the less than 20% of the population. it is like ok, taking away 10% of your asset value is not meaningful, now i am going to take away 15-20% of your asset value...what do you see? what are they doing? is this called distribution of wealth and is this effective?

    in my opinion, this is meaningless. if you want to stop the bubble, you should stop the speculative element! now they are punishing those real investors, taking away their wealth. I remember someone says that the policy should not be unfair to those existing property owner, but is this the case now?? now take away 10% i say not meaningful, so what? I will take away another 10%??
    for most of the ppl, the money is also hard earned.....not drop from the sky even though i know there are a lot who inherit...

    just like play snake ladder......what happen if i move you 10 steps back?

    these are all my opinion....

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