How low the COE price will go?

[richwang]

Reregistration is increasing:

http://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/lt...g_by_Quota.pdf

And more in the pipeline:

http://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/lt...01-03M-Age.pdf

[richwang]

Cars with COE expiring:

<1 year left: 78,672
1-2 years left: 114,565
2-3 years left: 103,741
3-4 years left: 93,447
4-5 years left: 68,203

So it is safe to say COE will drop in the next 1 to 2 years.

[richwang]

For Cat A, Oct - Dec 2014 reregistration was: 2,080 + 2,068 + 2,263 = 6,411

[richwang]

For Cat A, Oct - Dec 2014 de-registration was: 2,080 + 2,068 + 2,263 = 6,411
For Cat A, Jan - Mar, 2015 de-registration: 3,174 + ? + ? = 9k++ (?)

[richwang]

http://www.lta.gov.sg/data/apps/news...r_15_ANNEX.pdf

[richwang]

Cat A Ratio: Monthly quota x 120 / Cat A population = 1,973 x 120 / 335, 450 = 70.58%, still below average supply. (So COE is over priced at the moment).

[richwang]

For Cat A, Oct - Dec 2014 de-registration was: 2,080 + 2,068 + 2,263 = 6,411
For Cat A, Jan - Mar, 2015 de-registration: 3,174 + ? + ? = 9k++ (?)

For Cat A, Jan - Mar, 2015 de-registration: 3,174 + 2,142 + ? = 5,316 + ? = 8K+ (?)

http://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/lt...g_by_Quota.pdf

[richwang]

Cars with COE expiring:

<1 year left: 78,672
1-2 years left: 114,565
2-3 years left: 103,741
3-4 years left: 93,447
4-5 years left: 68,203

So it is safe to say COE will drop in the next 1 to 2 years.

<1 year left: 82,337
1-2 years left: 115,727
2-3 years left: 101,338
3-4 years left: 94,255
4-5 years left: 65,170

http://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/lt...01-03M-Age.pdf