How Much Are You Willing to Pay for Cat A COE?

[richwang]

I am trying to figure out the demand curve. Your vote is appreciated.
Thanks,

[richwang]

http://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/lt..._2005_2009.pdf

The price for Mar 2005 was $20,654 and $18,901. That might be the floor price for those who'd like to renew their COE.

[richwang]

The monthly quota was: 2,516 + 2,520 = 5,036.
And now the monthly quota is only 987 x 2 = 1,974

What happened?

[richwang]

In order for the price to drop to 40k+ range, the estimated monthly quota will be around 2k. We are heading that.

Time, Quota, Price
Jan 2000, 2,151, S$43,802
Mar 2011, 1,802, S$42,600
Jan 2012, 1,804, S$48,112

[henryhk]

40k Coe I hope for

[richwang]

so the demand curve has shifted:

with 2k quota, buyers are now willing to pay S$64k, a S$24K increase.

[richwang]

in order to get S$40k COE, the quota will now need to be around 3.5k to 4k.

[richwang]

The Jan - Mar de-registration number is: 3,173 + 2,142 + ?
We are still far away from the 3.5k to 4k monthly quota.

[chiongkakis]

will we be able to see our old 10k+ coe? i missed those periods....

[MrTan]

will we be able to see our old 10k+ coe? i missed those periods....

I also miss those periods before the immigration floodgate was open...

[richwang]

De-registration, Jan - Mar: 3,174 + 2,142 + 4,030 = 9,346

http://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/lt...g_by_Quota.pdf

Month Quota: 2,853

http://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/lt...locationRV.pdf

Cat A total cars: 335,450

Ratio: 2,853 x 12 x 10 / 335,450 = 102%

We are at breakeven point in terms of supply!

So the price you will be getting will be a "fair" price. (Of course you could get bargains if you are willing to wait.)

[TABee]

COE quota for May-Jul to increase by 40%... will the new citizens and PRs and just start work 'parents can afford' push cause COE bids to remain above S$50K? Why no other country follows our system and make buyers bid for the right to drive a vehicle for 10 years?

[richwang]

quota for each bidding session will be 2,853/2 = 1,426

last time when we were close to such quota:

Date; Quota; Price
Jan 2010; 1,152; S$20K
Sep 2009; 1,395; S$15K
Jul 2009; 1,404; S$12K

Let's see how much the demand curve has shifted:

(with S$20K to S$30K shift) the COE price would be:
S$40K - S$50K

[richwang]

Supply is up for 40%, but price continues to go UP.

Economics doesn't work?

[bargain hunter]

demand is also UP, that's why.

Supply is up for 40%, but price continues to go UP.

Economics doesn't work?

[richwang]

April de-registration for Cat A: 3,618
Jan to Mar average: (3,174 + 2,142 + 4,030) / 3 = 3,115

So we are entering the "new norm": COE "fair" price is S$60K+.

http://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/lt...g_by_Quota.pdf

[richwang]

The good news is supply is still "healthy":

cars with COE of < 1 year: 90,479
cars with COE of 1-2 years: 113,187
cars with COE of 2-3 years: 99,567
cars with COE of 3-4 years: 90,594

http://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/lt...01-03M-Age.pdf

[TABee]

Seems those days of 20K to 30K COEs will not return what with new immigrants with $, companies giving car allowance (not transport but CAR allowance). Government will continue to review ERP rates, employ more enforcement officers (foreigners likely), install more automated parking, CCTVs to deter roadside stops, gradually reduce parking spaces, etc. to make it more inconvenient to drive. CBD season parking per month will go up further to average $500 per month in 2018?

Rates for May 2015
Category PQP ( $ )
A 63,444.00
B 72,136.00
C 56,468.00
D 5,922.00

Note
The PQP payable for cars registered using COEs obtained before Feb 2014 will be based on the following:
A - Car (1600cc & below)
B - Car (1601cc & above)
C - Goods Vehicle & Bus
D - Motorcycle
The PQP payable for cars registered using COEs obtained from the Feb 2014 first bidding exercise onwards will be based on the following:
A - Car (up to 1600cc & 97kW (130bhp))
B - Car (above 1600cc or 97kW (130bhp))
C - Goods Vehicle & Bus
D - Motorcycle

[DC33_2008]

What will it be this Wed?

Seems those days of 20K to 30K COEs will not return what with new immigrants with $, companies giving car allowance (not transport but CAR allowance). Government will continue to review ERP rates, employ more enforcement officers (foreigners likely), install more automated parking, CCTVs to deter roadside stops, gradually reduce parking spaces, etc. to make it more inconvenient to drive. CBD season parking per month will go up further to average $500 per month in 2018?

Rates for May 2015
Category PQP ( $ )
A 63,444.00
B 72,136.00
C 56,468.00
D 5,922.00

Note
The PQP payable for cars registered using COEs obtained before Feb 2014 will be based on the following:
A - Car (1600cc & below)
B - Car (1601cc & above)
C - Goods Vehicle & Bus
D - Motorcycle
The PQP payable for cars registered using COEs obtained from the Feb 2014 first bidding exercise onwards will be based on the following:
A - Car (up to 1600cc & 97kW (130bhp))
B - Car (above 1600cc or 97kW (130bhp))
C - Goods Vehicle & Bus
D - Motorcycle

[onglai]

What will it be this Wed?

in a property forum, where are pple looking at cat A?

I would expect most pple here can afford cat b at least. anyway coe not much difference oso la..

[MrTan]

Thanks TS for starting and updating this thread. I find the information here very useful. FYI, my unit is a homogeneous/ceramic one, not in a marble/ivory tower.

[Kelonguni]

in a property forum, where are pple looking at cat A?

I would expect most pple here can afford cat b at least. anyway coe not much difference oso la..

Hard to say. Some private estates are largely dominated by Cat A BB cars. The ratio does not feel that different from HDB. In fact, I have started to notice the trend that some of these private property owners channel almost all their funds into property. Their savings to earnings ratio is quite inhumane.

COE 10k, CEV rebate maybe 10k, OMV taxes maybe 10k. All adds up leh...

[bargain hunter]

there will be pple who can afford pte ppty and still drive cat a cars, no doubt about it. there are also hdb estates with a lot of cat b cars.

[Kelonguni]

Honestly speaking, I am also waiting for the COE to drop. In my current situation, given current Singapore's infrastructure, a car is essential for family and work. Even if COE goes up to 100K I will still get one, but maybe second hand or even commercial, of course weighing against the cost of renewing COE for 10 years. Some will say cheapo but more important to me is to be at places within minutes.

Personally, my current viable strategy is still to live, work and drive near employment clusters. As family and work needs, as well as infrastructure (such as cycling networks) change, I will change accordingly.

It will probably take a year more or so to clear all existing and new demand for COEs before we see any meaningful drop.

[DC33_2008]

The younger Singaporeans will pay for it. It is the elder Singaporeans who will think twice about it. There will be more second car on the road.

Honestly speaking, I am also waiting for the COE to drop. In my current situation, given current Singapore's infrastructure, a car is essential for family and work. Even if COE goes up to 100K I will still get one, but maybe second hand or even commercial, of course weighing against the cost of renewing COE for 10 years. Some will say cheapo but more important to me is to be at places within minutes.

Personally, my current viable strategy is still to live, work and drive near employment clusters. As family and work needs, as well as infrastructure (such as cycling networks) change, I will change accordingly.

It will probably take a year more or so to clear all existing and new demand for COEs before we see any meaningful drop.

[MrTan]

The younger Singaporeans will pay for it. It is the elder Singaporeans who will think twice about it. There will be more second car on the road.

If they have the money, and not their parents paying for it.

[Kelonguni]

If they have the money, and not their parents paying for it.

I suspect all the loan curbs and TDSR might be implemented to prevent some of them from overestimating their ability to manage their debts. Generally, they will over-project and not factor in buffer for worst case scenarios. Not all of them but enough of them to raise the bar for everyone.

[MrTan]

I suspect all the loan curbs and TDSR might be implemented to prevent some of them from overestimating their ability to manage their debts. Generally, they will over-project and not factor in buffer for worst case scenarios. Not all of them but enough of them to raise the bar for everyone.

I observe that the younger generation prefers to drink at Starbucks as compared to the older generation drinking at kopitiam (the real deal, not the food court). Extrapolate that to their lifestyle and spending behavior and we see what we see today. Not all of them but enough to make a general assumption.

[onehome]

for me it would be around 20-30 K

[MrTan]

for me it would be around 20-30 K

Let me guess - u do not own a car currently?

I observe that current car owners r willing to pay more for COE as compared to 1st time car buyers.