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Thread: The Singapore's economy and property market beyond 2015

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    Default The Singapore's economy and property market beyond 2015

    The Singapore's economy is going to slow down going forward and property prices can only decline gradually hereon. The cooling measures were in placed to ensure that when our economy takes a low growth path, not many people are exposed to inflated assets. Without these cooling measures, many more people would have bought or invested in properties would find themselves in an over-leveraged position when the values of their assets fall over the coming years.

    My guess is that the General Election will be called in 2015 or early 2016 because our economy is still good and property prices especially in OCR has not corrected much. Many parents and would be first time buyers are happy that property prices are finally coming down. The minority (mainly the middle class) who bought property in recent years are still not having sleepless nights over to the values of their assets falling below their loan amount. Many of these buyers were also protected by the cooling measures and hence their LTV were below the 80% level.

    Come 2016 and beyond, the economy and the property markets are likely to be even more challenging than 2015. Hence, GE in 2015 seems to be most favorable to the ruling party.

    I had in late 2011 and 2012, urged people who were highly leveraged to sell off some of their investments. With prices in OCR still have not corrected much, it may well be your last chance for those highly leveraged investors to off load their assets even if it means lower profits or small losses. For those who could afford to hold on to your investments, good for you because not many people can be in your position. The market does not kills, greed does.

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    As we know, Singapore's economy has been quite poor for past 2 years (despite the large inflation) and will be so going forward, growing at miserable 1-3% (bearly beat inflation rate), and government seems unable to revive it to higher growth.......

    Because economy is poor, coupled with the property cooling measures introduced by government which is causing the property prices to tank for past >1.5 years and expected to cause property price to drop for next few years, amounting to a crash of >20% expected.....

    S$ is going to drop going forward (vs US$) because US economy is improving vs the poor Singapore economy which is slowing / going no where.......

    In view of above, better have General Election early before people feel the pinch and put the blame on the ruling government and show their dissident and unhappiness by giving their vote to Opposition parties...................

    For layman, better sell your spare properties or downgrade if you are over-leverage (before General Election) because when S$ drop vs US$, interest rates will shoot up, coupled with poor economy, ........... Oh my gosh!..............

    But too late by then after General Election because Singapore really need bitter pill to help Singapore's economy to recover!

    What bitter pills will come then after General Election?
    Will GST increase? (to help the poor, but collect more taxes from every tom, dick and harry despite relatively low to ZERO salary rise because of poor Singapore's economy)

    Will we see more "wealth tax"?
    What kind of "wealth tax" will it be? Would the "wealth tax" be raised from:
    - everybody who earns >$1500 per month,
    - AND/OR everybody who owns property,
    - AND/OR everybody whose property has NAV > $1000 per month,
    - AND/OR something similar?

    What else do you expect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Leeds View Post
    The Singapore's economy is going to slow down going forward and property prices can only decline gradually hereon. The cooling measures were in placed to ensure that when our economy takes a low growth path, not many people are exposed to inflated assets. Without these cooling measures, many more people would have bought or invested in properties would find themselves in an over-leveraged position when the values of their assets fall over the coming years.

    My guess is that the General Election will be called in 2015 or early 2016 because our economy is still good and property prices especially in OCR has not corrected much. Many parents and would be first time buyers are happy that property prices are finally coming down. The minority (mainly the middle class) who bought property in recent years are still not having sleepless nights over to the values of their assets falling below their loan amount. Many of these buyers were also protected by the cooling measures and hence their LTV were below the 80% level.

    Come 2016 and beyond, the economy and the property markets are likely to be even more challenging than 2015. Hence, GE in 2015 seems to be most favorable to the ruling party.

    I had in late 2011 and 2012, urged people who were highly leveraged to sell off some of their investments. With prices in OCR still have not corrected much, it may well be your last chance for those highly leveraged investors to off load their assets even if it means lower profits or small losses. For those who could afford to hold on to your investments, good for you because not many people can be in your position. The market does not kills, greed does.
    Last edited by teddybear; 14-07-15 at 14:47.

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    I have been telling people that OCR is the way to go for SG since joining the forum 2012.

    It's simply the effect of modernisation plus policy changes. Economy GDP down is a deliberate steer to minimise and mitigate inflation effects in my opinion.

    Do note that many middle upper and affluent Singaporeans have been saving and biding their time for the last two or three years. Many BTOs massively built during the catchup phase are also due for MOP very soon.

    My guess is an even more sustained growth phase after GE. Just be on the lookout for it.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Your guess is unlikely to happen, and many don't expect your guess to happen, including the establishment................................
    If it is likely to happen, better wait till early 2017 to have GE to capitalize on the "wealth effect" to get more votes. ...................

    and by the way, given the massive BTOs coming on line and TOP and going 5 years in next few years, HDB resale flats prices will be significantly suppressed, and OCR private condo prices are expected to have major dip going forward................... (No more "upgrading effect" because people couldn't sell their HDB flats at inflated price to upgrade to OCR condos currently selling at inflated price...)

    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    I have been telling people that OCR is the way to go for SG since joining the forum 2012.

    It's simply the effect of modernisation plus policy changes. Economy GDP down is a deliberate steer to minimise and mitigate inflation effects in my opinion.

    Do note that many middle upper and affluent Singaporeans have been saving and biding their time for the last two or three years. Many BTOs massively built during the catchup phase are also due for MOP very soon.

    My guess is an even more sustained growth phase after GE. Just be on the lookout for it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    Your guess is unlikely to happen, and many don't expect your guess to happen, including the establishment................................
    If it is likely to happen, better wait till early 2017 to have GE to capitalize on the "wealth effect" to get more votes. ...................

    and by the way, given the massive BTOs coming on line and TOP and going 5 years in next few years, HDB resale flats prices will be significantly suppressed, and OCR private condo prices are expected to have major dip going forward................... (No more "upgrading effect" because people couldn't sell their HDB flats at inflated price to upgrade to OCR condos currently selling at inflated price...)
    Simply put, if prices can be easily anticipated and moves according to expectations, then there won't be so many who miss the boat or catch the wrong boat.

    If you don't own a HDB, you have no idea what the situation is going to be like when it MOP. If you don't visit the OCRs, you also will miss what's going on over there.

    We will just have to be patient to see.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Not easy to anticipate, that is why even when some people who have the ability to anticipate talk about it openly, others will still not listen and even rubbish them (until it is too late). Is this any wonder why so many miss the boat and/or catch the wrong boat? ..........


    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Simply put, if prices can be easily anticipated and moves according to expectations, then there won't be so many who miss the boat or catch the wrong boat.

    If you don't own a HDB, you have no idea what the situation is going to be like when it MOP. If you don't visit the OCRs, you also will miss what's going on over there.

    We will just have to be patient to see.

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    Not easy to anticipate, that is why even when some people who have the ability to anticipate talk about it openly, others will still not listen and even rubbish them (until it is too late). Is this any wonder why so many miss the boat and/or catch the wrong boat? ..........
    Yah my first two properties are bought at 30 to 70% of current prices. So I can tell with hindsight that the timing and class were perfect. But people always doubted me as i always move against the crowd. My timing and class of asset always differs from others.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Property prices are very difficult to predict. While GDP growth has declined, it is still a growth and the slower growth could be due to labour shortage.

    The rump-up in housing supply could be due to "build first then relax immigration" policy. Housing prices are also impacted by ABSD, SSD, TDSR etc. These cooling measures may or may not be relaxed.

    Then, as rightly pointed out, there are foreign exchange and interest rate impacts. S$ weakens means properties become cheaper to foreigners, so maybe demand will increase but interest rate will go up too, so demand will reduce. Prices may go either way. But in the longer term, with inflation, cash will generally decline in value.

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    Thanks for more balanced viewpoints. Admittedly, CCR and RCR and OCR are not uniform also. Every class and specific locality has a different proposition at all points of the cycle dependent on individual situation as well.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pynchmail View Post
    Property prices are very difficult to predict. While GDP growth has declined, it is still a growth and the slower growth could be due to labour shortage.

    The rump-up in housing supply could be due to "build first then relax immigration" policy. Housing prices are also impacted by ABSD, SSD, TDSR etc. These cooling measures may or may not be relaxed.

    Then, as rightly pointed out, there are foreign exchange and interest rate impacts. S$ weakens means properties become cheaper to foreigners, so maybe demand will increase but interest rate will go up too, so demand will reduce. Prices may go either way. But in the longer term, with inflation, cash will generally decline in value.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Singapore Land price will become cheaper because the Gov reclaim land from the sea using sand from other country.

    Labor cost will become cheaper because other country not using their labor can let them work in Singapore.

    We are not getting more FT because we don't like and have show in the 2011 election and the Gov agree we will not get more.

    Our aging population can be easily be make to work longer because now people can work until they die, LKY show you can.

    Still got a lot will show you property in future will become cheaper for everyone.

    Happy SG50.

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    No quick recovery for Singapore property market: seminar

    AS Singapore faces a "new normal" of slower growth and even stagnation risks, the property market is unlikely to stage a major rebound even if some cooling measures are relaxed now, market watchers said at a property seminar on Tuesday.

    Chua Hak Bin, head of emerging Asia economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, warned that Singapore may enter a period of stagnation over the next couple of years.

    Recent alarm bells were sounded when employment growth contracted for the first time in the first quarter since the global financial crisis (GFC), loans growth contracted in May for the first time since the GFC, and Singapore's inflation plunged to the lowest in five years, he said.

    Some studies in the US have shown that macro-prudential measures such as housing loan-to-value ratios and stamp duties are more effective as tightening tools, but loosening these measures has less impact akin to "pushing on a string" in a downturn, Dr Chua said at the Real Estate Developers' Association of Singapore (Redas) property market seminar.

    Redas president Augustine Tan flagged that any recovery in the property market will not be brisk. "We have to brace ourselves for a different mode of operation as the real estate market enters a different period," he told market practitioners at the seminar. "The build-up of the oversupply situation in the private residential market will not abate in the short term and recovery will not be a quick one."

    The private housing inventory from the last few years of government land sales supply, along with the plunge in demand and rising vacancy rate, remains a drag on the market, he said.

    Private home prices marked their seventh straight quarter of decline - the longest downward streak in 13 years - based on the Urban Redevelopment Authority's second-quarter flash index; over 89,000 new private residential units, including executive condominiums, are expected to be completed from 2015 to 2019.

    Savills head of research Alan Cheong noted that prices alone do not provide a full picture. "It is more about market transactions collapsing that one should be concerned with," he said. Using the average monthly sales from January to May, it will take 12 years to clear the stock of launched and unsold inventory in the core central region. In the mass to mid-tier private homes market, it will take over 11 years to clear the inventory assuming that the government continues to sell land at the 2015 pace.

    It also seems that Singapore's economy is becoming less supportive of the property market - going by lower GDP growth, slower population growth and a productivity drive that has fallen far below the growth target of 2-3 per cent per year. Labour productivity growth was negative in the last four years, while private investment contracted over the past two years.

    But as the US starts raising interest rates, likely from September, the Sibor is expected to climb to 2 per cent by the end of next year, Dr Chua projected. Though past Federal rate hikes was accompanied by stronger US economic growth that in turn buoyed Asian economies and currencies, "we think that this time is different because of China", he said. A sputtering Chinese economy is negating that lift from the US economy and changes in US consumption patterns have reduced demand for Asian exports.

    Property consultants at the seminar on Tuesday noted that prevailing economic conditions are also hurting key non-residential property segments.

    As manufacturing activities remain subdued and supply of multiple-user factory space continues to outpace demand, rentals are expected to remain under pressure, said DTZ head of research Lee Nai Jia. "Difficulty in leasing is also expected to widen the rental gap between new and older industrial developments."

    The relocation of tech companies like Google and Oracle from the CBD to modern high-tech business parks that are some 30-40 per cent cheaper in rents does not bode well for the office sector, property consultants noted.

    According to Christine Li, research director at Cushman & Wakefield, new office leases as a proportion of total leases by floor area plunged to only 4 per cent in the first half of this year from 15 per cent in 2014. And among relocation contracts, as much as 88 per cent of the space is signed at cheaper buildings such as high-tech industrial buildings, business parks and suburban office buildings, up from 29 per cent in 2014. Office prices have shown to strongly correlate with economic growth in the past, except in an oversupply situation, Ms Li said.

    In the retail space, rents and prices are also under pressure amid sliding occupancy rates. Knight Frank's survey of retailers showed that 53.3 per cent of the respondents are mulling downsizing or moving retail outlets to cheaper locations.

    "The existing trend of major retailers consolidating their operations could persist through H2 2015 with the challenging retail market outlook," said Knight Frank's head of research and consultancy Alice Tan. "An influx of new retail space of 1.7 million sq ft in 2015 and 2016 could exert downward pressure on prime retail rents island-wide by 1 to 2 per cent in 2015."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Leeds View Post
    No quick recovery for Singapore property market: seminar

    AS Singapore faces a "new normal" of slower growth and even stagnation risks, the property market is unlikely to stage a major rebound even if some cooling measures are relaxed now, market watchers said at a property seminar on Tuesday.

    Chua Hak Bin, head of emerging Asia economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, warned that Singapore may enter a period of stagnation over the next couple of years.

    Recent alarm bells were sounded when employment growth contracted for the first time in the first quarter since the global financial crisis (GFC), loans growth contracted in May for the first time since the GFC, and Singapore's inflation plunged to the lowest in five years, he said.
    These vested professionals only speak the "truth" after the fact. When the market was at a turning point some 3 years ago, these experts were still shouting to buy hoping to clear their inventories before reality bits.

    So when the experts tell you to buy during the boom times, it would probably be the best time to sell. The herd follows the experts and the experts make their money and history will repeat itself. The average man will never learn from history.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Leeds View Post
    These vested professionals only speak the "truth" after the fact. When the market was at a turning point some 3 years ago, these experts were still shouting to buy hoping to clear their inventories before reality bits.

    So when the experts tell you to buy during the boom times, it would probably be the best time to sell. The herd follows the experts and the experts make their money and history will repeat itself. The average man will never learn from history.
    1. Actually, to be precise, as far as 5-7 years ago, experts were already shouting oversupply.

    http://forums.condosingapore.com/sho...pply-of-condos

    "from http://propertysoul.com/

    About the trainer
    Property Soul is a property enthusiast who bought her first condominium unit for rent since 2002. In the next 4½ years, she built up a portfolio of five private properties. By 2008, its total value had more than doubled. In 2010 and 2011, she sold four of the properties, realizing a net profit of 80 to 120 percent.
    In 2010, she set up a personal blog PropertySoul.com to share her experiences as a property investor and to exchange ideas with fellow investors on accumulating wealth through properties. In April 2014, she published her first book No B.S. Guide to Property Investment. The first print was sold out in bookstores within 8 weeks’ time. The book was a bestseller in Kinokuniya and Times bookstores.
    Property Soul is also the founder of Property Club Singapore – a neutral platform for the learning and networking of like-minded private property buyers, investors and owners. Seminars, talks, workshops and networking sessions are organized regularly."

    http://aboutsingaporeproperty.blogsp...y-looming.html

    http://www.stproperty.sg/articles-pr...i-boss/a/69237


    2. Assuming that your argument about the experts not saying what they really think three years ago is true, what makes you think they are telling the truth right now? Your so-called experts are encouraging you to sell now, before it's too late. Do you trust them? Do you think they themselves are selling now?
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Reply to your question:
    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni
    2. Assuming that your argument about the experts not saying what they really think three years ago is true, what makes you think they are telling the truth right now? Your so-called experts are encouraging you to sell now, before it's too late. Do you trust them? Do you think they themselves are selling now?
    The experts are just reminding us a fact that Singapore private property market is already dead, private property prices regardless of OCR or CCR has been dropping for 6 quarters or 1.5 years now and early data already show that price will continue to drop in the 7th quarter, all these as a result of after introduction of very punitive property cooling measures like ABSD and TDSR by MAS and over-supply of private properties from massive land sales programme by MND.........

    It is a no-brainer to predict that unless there is any effort and steps taken to reverse the trend by the Singapore government, private property prices every where (regardless of OCR or CCR) are expected to drop every quarter for next few years, and just nice to hit a recesion in say 2020 or after.
    Many Singaporeans will end up losing their investment properties, and may even lose their own residential private properties if economy is bad and they lose their jobs by then (because they can't cash out of their investment property from now till the next recession)...................

    As to your first question, it is clear that even a broken clock is right twice a day, and the day has arrived NOW!

    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    1. Actually, to be precise, as far as 5-7 years ago, experts were already shouting oversupply.

    http://forums.condosingapore.com/sho...pply-of-condos

    "from http://propertysoul.com/

    About the trainer
    Property Soul is a property enthusiast who bought her first condominium unit for rent since 2002. In the next 4½ years, she built up a portfolio of five private properties. By 2008, its total value had more than doubled. In 2010 and 2011, she sold four of the properties, realizing a net profit of 80 to 120 percent.
    In 2010, she set up a personal blog PropertySoul.com to share her experiences as a property investor and to exchange ideas with fellow investors on accumulating wealth through properties. In April 2014, she published her first book No B.S. Guide to Property Investment. The first print was sold out in bookstores within 8 weeks’ time. The book was a bestseller in Kinokuniya and Times bookstores.
    Property Soul is also the founder of Property Club Singapore – a neutral platform for the learning and networking of like-minded private property buyers, investors and owners. Seminars, talks, workshops and networking sessions are organized regularly."

    http://aboutsingaporeproperty.blogsp...y-looming.html

    http://www.stproperty.sg/articles-pr...i-boss/a/69237


    2. Assuming that your argument about the experts not saying what they really think three years ago is true, what makes you think they are telling the truth right now? Your so-called experts are encouraging you to sell now, before it's too late. Do you trust them? Do you think they themselves are selling now?
    Last edited by teddybear; 15-07-15 at 10:44.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    1. Actually, to be precise, as far as 5-7 years ago, experts were already shouting oversupply.

    http://forums.condosingapore.com/sho...pply-of-condos

    "from http://propertysoul.com/

    About the trainer
    Property Soul is a property enthusiast who bought her first condominium unit for rent since 2002. In the next 4½ years, she built up a portfolio of five private properties. By 2008, its total value had more than doubled. In 2010 and 2011, she sold four of the properties, realizing a net profit of 80 to 120 percent.
    In 2010, she set up a personal blog PropertySoul.com to share her experiences as a property investor and to exchange ideas with fellow investors on accumulating wealth through properties. In April 2014, she published her first book No B.S. Guide to Property Investment. The first print was sold out in bookstores within 8 weeks’ time. The book was a bestseller in Kinokuniya and Times bookstores.
    Property Soul is also the founder of Property Club Singapore – a neutral platform for the learning and networking of like-minded private property buyers, investors and owners. Seminars, talks, workshops and networking sessions are organized regularly."

    http://aboutsingaporeproperty.blogsp...y-looming.html

    http://www.stproperty.sg/articles-pr...i-boss/a/69237


    2. Assuming that your argument about the experts not saying what they really think three years ago is true, what makes you think they are telling the truth right now? Your so-called experts are encouraging you to sell now, before it's too late. Do you trust them? Do you think they themselves are selling now?
    Mr Terrybear had answered your questions on my behalf.

    Those non-vested experts would usually speak the truth or facts while vested experts would usually choose to "ignore" the facts and speak what sells. As a matter of facts, in 2011 (after GE 2011), when the government announced massive land supply, experts already know the oversupply situation would come. However those vested experts would say this time was different because of cheap money and population growth to support their claims. The herd buy into their argument and hence they could sell even more when market is booming. In the real estate market, there is this "window of opportunity" to sell and every experience developer knows the game.

    Now these vested experts are not likely to tell you to sell because they still need to sell and clear their inventories. You have to decide for yourself do you need to sell or you can hold because you are not highly leveraged.

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    OK, good luck in your sales!
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    OK, good luck in your sales!

    Are you referring to me? Most forumers since 2011 know that I am not vested nor did I miss the boat. I am merely sharing what I think I know.

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    Singapore’s grueling home price deadlock might finally be broken this year

    Developers and sellers will capitulate.

    It will be only a matter of time before home developers throw in the towel and surrender to the whims of cost-conscious property buyers.

    A report by UOB said that private home prices will fall by a further 5-10% this year as developers and sellers capitulate to buyers' demands.

    Although new home sales have declined sharply, prices have remained relatively elevated because of developers’ holding power.

    "Some resolution to the stalemate could emerge this year as developers and sellers capitulate in the face of rising interest rates and weakening rentals. Increased willingness by developers/ sellers to cut prices could help spur inventory clearance as more price-sensitive demand returns. We expect a further 5-10% fall in private home prices this year,” the report said.

    - See more at: http://sbr.com.sg/residential-proper....Iu2bG1rR.dpuf

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    Quote Originally Posted by Leeds View Post
    Are you referring to me? Most forumers since 2011 know that I am not vested nor did I miss the boat. I am merely sharing what I think I know.
    OK have fun anyway then either renting or living with parents, or in some other exceptional cases, working for a place to stay!
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    OK have fun anyway then either renting or living with parents, or in some other exceptional cases, working for a place to stay!
    I do not share my investment portfolio just like any other professional investor. However, I do share my views about social, economic and politics which have a direct impact on the property market. My views are based on social and economic fundamentals and consumers' behaviour.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Leeds View Post
    I do not share my investment portfolio just like any other professional investor. However, I do share my views about social, economic and politics which have a direct impact on the property market. My views are based on social and economic fundamentals and consumers' behaviour.
    This is exactly my view point as well - I share only very selectively.

    But I prefer to use raw data and experience rather than "expert" views published. I monitor actual caveats to find out where the price drops are, where the price gains are, which locality and which segment, rental movements in different locality and type of property, population and demographic changes.

    So far I have not seen your social, political and economic views clearly, only saw how you interpret the views in published articles.

    Honestly, there was a period in 2013 and 2014 when I shared a good part of your views while waiting for a land parcel to be released. I wasn't in a hurry as well, knowing that prices would either drop or have very limited growth. If the Govt allowed for free fall, the land parcel would really change the dynamics in that region based on my monitoring. When I found out that the land parcel was withdrawn from a confirmed to the reserve list, I knew then that everything is within the control of those who need to be in control. Added to that was more than two years of income growth and savings for specific income groups, plus some subtle changes in policy.

    The next wave will come very soon. It will not move fast but what I have seen it will be a very steady and slow one. The real risk is MERS especially. China and Greece not so much I feel. If you are not in a hurry, you can still monitor it for some time more.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    This is exactly my view point as well - I share only very selectively.

    But I prefer to use raw data and experience rather than "expert" views published. I monitor actual caveats to find out where the price drops are, where the price gains are, which locality and which segment, rental movements in different locality and type of property, population and demographic changes.

    So far I have not seen your social, political and economic views clearly, only saw how you interpret the views in published articles.

    Honestly, there was a period in 2013 and 2014 when I shared a good part of your views while waiting for a land parcel to be released. I wasn't in a hurry as well, knowing that prices would either drop or have very limited growth. If the Govt allowed for free fall, the land parcel would really change the dynamics in that region based on my monitoring. When I found out that the land parcel was withdrawn from a confirmed to the reserve list, I knew then that everything is within the control of those who need to be in control. Added to that was more than two years of income growth and savings for specific income groups, plus some subtle changes in policy.

    The next wave will come very soon. It will not move fast but what I have seen it will be a very steady and slow one. The real risk is MERS especially. China and Greece not so much I feel. If you are not in a hurry, you can still monitor it for some time more.

    Please read my postings between 2011 and 2012. I was not active in this forum between 2013 and 2015 (until recently).

    To understand economic fundamental, you need to understand both macro and micro economics. The macro picture is that Singapore is now a matured economy and the government has chosen to let the economy grow as it is rather than like what was done in previous years to grow at all cost. From a macro economic perspective, it means that Singapore's growth will be slow and small in term of GDP and per capital income. As such, assets prices cannot increase like it was before. This is the "new normal" economists are talking about.

    If you can see the big picture, you will have a good feel where and how to structure your investments.

  23. #23
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    Ok will source it out when there is time. This is a good state in the long run. If allowed fully to run its course, we would all be cursing right now like in HK.

    Quote Originally Posted by Leeds View Post
    Please read my postings between 2011 and 2012. I was not active in this forum between 2013 and 2015 (until recently).

    To understand economic fundamental, you need to understand both macro and micro economics. The macro picture is that Singapore is now a matured economy and the government has chosen to let the economy grow as it is rather than like what was done in previous years to grow at all cost. From a macro economic perspective, it means that Singapore's growth will be slow and small in term of GDP and per capital income. As such, assets prices cannot increase like it was before. This is the "new normal" economists are talking about.

    If you can see the big picture, you will have a good feel where and how to structure your investments.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Ok will source it out when there is time. This is a good state in the long run. If allowed fully to run its course, we would all be cursing right now like in HK.
    Many analysts and even economists like to compare Singapore with Hong Kong, London, New York and Paris. We need to understand that all these cities are part of a bigger country with huge domestic demands. Hong Kong is part of China and the dynamics and domestic demands are very much different now than it was before.

    Singapore is both a city and a country with its own set of economic and social challenges every country faces like income disparity, employment, inflation etc. We depend a lot on external demands to boost our economy.

  25. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Leeds View Post
    Many analysts and even economists like to compare Singapore with Hong Kong, London, New York and Paris. We need to understand that all these cities are part of a bigger country with huge domestic demands. Hong Kong is part of China and the dynamics and domestic demands are very much different now than it was before.

    Singapore is both a city and a country with its own set of economic and social challenges every country faces like income disparity, employment, inflation etc. We depend a lot on external demands to boost our economy.
    We still have a number of fiscal tools on hand. What was done in the last few years was slowing down. The govt is looking for a reason to speed up. The reasons are drawing near.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  26. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    We still have a number of fiscal tools on hand. What was done in the last few years was slowing down. The govt is looking for a reason to speed up. The reasons are drawing near.
    Hope you get it right.

    Fiscal policy can only do this much to a small economy like ours. We are affected by fiscal policies of the world greater economies. The dynamic of economic is that a strong growth will be followed by stagnation and/or recession. This is part of the economic cycles.

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    For those who have made your wealth through property investments (speculations for many) in the past, good for you. Your challenge going forward is to preserve your wealth.

    For those who are still thinking of begging and borrowing enough to place that deposit to buy your first investment property and hope to strike gold down the road, you will need a lot of good luck going forward. The "new normal" will be very different from what we use to know. Property investment should only be a part of your investment portfolio and not your only investment. Only the very savvy and well funded investors may take some arbitrage profits but not without risk since property is illiquid.

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    Tdsr already prevent the speculators. Profit taking is mostly out of consideration.

    Then why buy you may ask. Some have the answer. Some don't have. If don't have, don't buy better.

    Quote Originally Posted by Leeds View Post
    For those who have made your wealth through property investments (speculations for many) in the past, good for you. Your challenge going forward is to preserve your wealth.

    For those who are still thinking of begging and borrowing enough to place that deposit to buy your first investment property and hope to strike gold down the road, you will need a lot of good luck going forward. The "new normal" will be very different from what we use to know. Property investment should only be a part of your investment portfolio and not your only investment. Only the very savvy and well funded investors may take some arbitrage profits but not without risk since property is illiquid.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

  29. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Tdsr already prevent the speculators. Profit taking is mostly out of consideration.

    Then why buy you may ask. Some have the answer. Some don't have. If don't have, don't buy better.
    Speculators refers to those who bought and hold and hoping to sell at a profit few years later without any intention to stay or for long term rental. Some managed to sell with huge profits but many got caught and still holding them. Some can hold much longer but many will have to sell later when interest rate rises and rental unable to cover mortgages.

    There will always have people buying and people selling. Questions we should ask is who are these people buying? Are they savvy investors, novice investors or are they buyers needing a home to stay?

  30. #30
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    Excellent.

    So its one round back to:

    1. What are they buying?

    2. Where are they buying?

    3. What is the price level they are buying at?

    The answers will tell you which group they belong to.

    Quote Originally Posted by Leeds View Post
    Speculators refers to those who bought and hold and hoping to sell at a profit few years later without any intention to stay or for long term rental. Some managed to sell with huge profits but many got caught and still holding them. Some can hold much longer but many will have to sell later when interest rate rises and rental unable to cover mortgages.

    There will always have people buying and people selling. Questions we should ask is who are these people buying? Are they savvy investors, novice investors or are they buyers needing a home to stay?
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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