http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/real...up-39-from-oct

November new home sales up 39% from Oct

December numbers will give clue on whether market is near its trough, says JLL

By Lee Meixian

[email protected]

@LeeMeixianBT

Dec 16, 2015


DEVELOPERS sold a total of 759 private residential units in November, a 39 per cent uptick from 548 units sold in October and representing a 79 per cent jump from a year ago.

This is according to data released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority on Tuesday.

JLL's head of Singapore and South-east Asia research Chua Yang Liang noted that the number of units sold in November is the third largest this year, after April (1,167 units) and July (1,655 units).

Dr Chua said: "The rise in November sales volume is a continuation of the upward trend since October. Given the government's continual emphasis that policy reversal is nowhere near, it would appear that buyers are moving back into the market...although buyers are still very price sensitive, as the take-up rate of the various projects suggest.

"However, the rise in demand could be short-lived given that historically, buying tends to increase in November, just before the slowdown in sales as the effect of year-end festivities such as Christmas and New Year sets in. We will have to watch the December number to ascertain if the market is anywhere near its trough."

The top-selling project last month was MCC Land's The Poiz Residences in Potong Pasir that was launched during the last weekend of November and sold 277 units (out of 350 launched) at a median price of S$1,440 per square foot (psf).

Poiz Residences has 731 units in all. It was the only new condominium project launched for sale in November. Consultants traced its appeal to its proximity to the central business district and MRT station, as well as the 50,000 sq ft of retail space at The Poiz Centre, which is part of the same mixed development.

ERA Realty key executive officer Eugene Lim said the good sales from Poiz Residences show that buyers are still very much in the market for well-located projects that are priced attractively and reasonably. There's still market demand but buyers are selective, he said.

Besides The Poiz Residences, other top-selling projects were:

CapitaLand's Sky Vue (59 units at median price of $1,522 psf)
UOL Group's Principal Garden (45 units at median price of $1,626 psf)
GuocoLand's Sims Urban Oasis (39 units at median price of $1,338 psf)
Nanshan Group's Thomson Impressions (38 units at median price of $1,396 psf).

These figures exclude executive condominiums (ECs), a public-private housing hybrid.

Including ECs, developers sold a total of 945 units in November. This is 15 per cent higher than in October when 823 units were sold, but 26 per cent lower than in November 2014.

The EC market waned in November, with only 186 units sold by developers, a 32 per cent decline from the 275 units sold in October, JLL's Dr Chua said.

Top-selling EC projects were The Brownstone, Sol Acres, Skypark Residences, The Vales and The Terrace. They sold between 19 and 33 units each with median prices ranging from S$765 to S$821 psf.

But R'ST Research director Ong Kah Seng actually found the EC sales in November "encouraging", given that no new EC projects were launched in November. He attributed this to their attractive pricing and the continued relevance of ECs.

Upcoming EC launches include Wandervale EC at Choa Chu Kang, which is targeting a mid-January launch date, and The Wisteria at Yishun which is launching in the first quarter of 2016.

Consultants expect the volume of new private home sales to close the year at just slightly below 7,500 units. This is comparable to about 7,300 new homes sold in 2014. EC sales could come in at 2,500 to 2,600 EC units for the full year.

Going into 2016, buying activity should remain tepid - at between 7,500 and 8,500 units - due to government policies and weaker economic conditions.

But as and when well-located, reasonably-priced projects are launched, developer sales may still spike - like in November.

SLP International executive director Nicholas Mak is more pessimistic about the 2016 outlook than most. He believes that developers' annual sales volume could fall to between 6,500 and 7,000 units, as the supply of new residential project launches dwindles.

"This is the result of the decreasing number of development sites sold by the government in the past two years," he said.