Property investment in uncertain times

[august]

I have also friends who missed 2009 and went on to buy in late 2011 and even early 2012. They are all regretting their decisions now.

Some of them bought resale and collecting rents still not so bad. The worst hit were those bought new and under construction projects. They not only not collecting rent over the last 5 years, they are now facing the risk of falling prices, rising interest rate, falling rental yield and even rentability issue. Of course my friends are not savvy investors. They followed the herd. I hope they will learn.

Regret? The current situation isn't market forces. It is entirely engineered by the govt. Basically they got screwed by the govt they voted for.

[Amber Woods]

Regret? The current situation isn't market forces. It is entirely engineered by the govt. Basically they got screwed by the govt they voted for.

No, they did not listen to what the government said after GE 2011. They followed the herd.

[proud owner]

Frankly, I think this article only serves 50% of the purpose and not really meaningful.
It shares certain valid points on the ppty market now but does not address if ppty is "no good" in current market, then what is writers' view on better alternatives. Is the writer advocating to go into stocks, bonds, commodity, currency or other instruments or simply to keep cash? Or maybe the writer is familiar with ppty market only and hence unable to offer alternatives, and may end up suggesting to keep cash?

If we are in a uncertain times, and ppty is no good obviously, then what is good? Definitely not stocks and bonds either. So is it time to sell all and buy into negative betas instruments only? Will the writer walks the talk?

If any of my staff comes and tell me his problems only, he is not a good staff. He needs to propose solutions or alternatives.

You are absolutely right.

Properties, Equities, Bonds ... all depend on the economies ...

when 1 is not doing well, chances are the other 2 also not doing any better...

Currencies on the other hand, whether economy is up or down, you can still trade on it.

The only time that it doesnt move is when there is Stagflation.

If there is Stagflation then properties bonds equities also not moving.

so comparing all these 4 investments... which one is more flexible ? not restricted by 'trading hours'?
not dependent on the state of the economy in order to make money ?

The answer is clear

[Citizen]

Frankly, I think this article only serves 50% of the purpose and not really meaningful.
It shares certain valid points on the ppty market now but does not address if ppty is "no good" in current market, then what is writers' view on better alternatives. Is the writer advocating to go into stocks, bonds, commodity, currency or other instruments or simply to keep cash? Or maybe the writer is familiar with ppty market only and hence unable to offer alternatives, and may end up suggesting to keep cash?

If we are in a uncertain times, and ppty is no good obviously, then what is good? Definitely not stocks and bonds either. So is it time to sell all and buy into negative betas instruments only? Will the writer walks the talk?

If any of my staff comes and tell me his problems only, he is not a good staff. He needs to propose solutions or alternatives.

This is what I mean, at least you, P Owner and the rest have found what are good and suit you guys, being property or other investment so long making money and happy. Some are real stubborn. Real sad

[Citizen]

You are absolutely right.

Properties, Equities, Bonds ... all depend on the economies ...

when 1 is not doing well, chances are the other 2 also not doing any better...

Currencies on the other hand, whether economy is up or down, you can still trade on it.

The only time that it doesnt move is when there is Stagflation.

If there is Stagflation then properties bonds equities also not moving.

so comparing all these 4 investments... which one is more flexible ? not restricted by 'trading hours'?
not dependent on the state of the economy in order to make money ?

The answer is clear

Yes agreed on the economy but not everyone know how to trade fx and win.

[Ilikeu]

You are absolutely right.

Properties, Equities, Bonds ... all depend on the economies ...

when 1 is not doing well, chances are the other 2 also not doing any better...

Currencies on the other hand, whether economy is up or down, you can still trade on it.

The only time that it doesnt move is when there is Stagflation.

If there is Stagflation then properties bonds equities also not moving.

so comparing all these 4 investments... which one is more flexible ? not restricted by 'trading hours'?
not dependent on the state of the economy in order to make money ?

The answer is clear

Indeed i recognise FX is interesting. For those already in trading such derivatives in their daily job, this is their expertise and likely to do reasonably well.

For those trading FX, he needs to have a traders' mentality rather than an investment mentality. It is too taxing for someone like me at this moment, with a full time job and a young family, to be at a level to trade FX confidently to generate a meaningful return. I traded commodities before, on margins, similarly as demanding as FX and all trades have to be settled on the day and should never hold overnight.

A simpler way to simply to buy into other currencies in fixed deposits.

[Ilikeu]

Regret? The current situation isn't market forces. It is entirely engineered by the govt. Basically they got screwed by the govt they voted for.

Do you mean the ppty price boom or the current correction due to the CMs are not market forces?

[Kelonguni]

The Govt only asked you to rightsize your loans. In fact, in Oct 2014, Minister Khaw has said to consider affordability and whether you like it as the most important criterias. Watch from 3min 54s.



From 2006-2010, the vast majority of the herd was not able to respond in time to buy. Right now, Minister said already said can buy, but the vast majority of the herd are stalled or intimidated by members of the herd into inaction.

So who can blame the Govt (or the herd) when the current supply is exhausted?

No, they did not listen to what the government said after GE 2011. They followed the herd.

[teddybear]

Well, other than FX, you can also do Futures, which also allows you to go long (when economy is up) or go short (when economy is down) and provide you with leverage. Another instrument is Options. The beauty of such instruments is that you can go along with the flow to make money, but NOT with stocks. Obviously you can borrow scripts to short stocks but the cost is just too high and not worth it, and you don't have the advantage of leverage to begin with.

You are absolutely right.

Properties, Equities, Bonds ... all depend on the economies ...

when 1 is not doing well, chances are the other 2 also not doing any better...

Currencies on the other hand, whether economy is up or down, you can still trade on it.

The only time that it doesnt move is when there is Stagflation.

If there is Stagflation then properties bonds equities also not moving.

so comparing all these 4 investments... which one is more flexible ? not restricted by 'trading hours'?
not dependent on the state of the economy in order to make money ?

The answer is clear

[Amber Woods]

The Govt only asked you to rightsize your loans. In fact, in Oct 2014, Minister Khaw has said to consider affordability and whether you like it as the most important criterias.

From 2006-2010, the vast majority of the herd was not able to respond in time to buy. Right now, Minister said already said can buy, but the vast majority of the herd are stalled or intimidated by members of the herd into inaction.

So who can blame the Govt (or the herd) when the current supply is exhausted?

In a booming market, it is the herd who chase after the prices and causing asset inflation. In a bear market, it is also the herd who cause major price correction.

The savvy investors are usually the first movers both in the bull and bear markets.

History always repeat itself because the man never learnt from past experience. Also new entrants to the market take time to learn hence make the same mistakes.

It is similar to the stock market. When uncles and aunties start to buy into the market, it is time to sell before prices rise to unstainable level. When uncles and aunties start to cut losses and sell, the savvy investors will be taking their picks as prices fall further.

It is happening now in CCR and RCR. It should be moving into OCR pretty soon.

[Kelonguni]

That's why we are blessed by the hard actions taken since 2010. Most of the herds can't chase the price anymore by 2013, three years ago.

Any uncle and aunty would have been deterred since the LTV measures. But those set of measures that deterred the herd did not deter those savvy investors. And that's why all the bows and arrows came out by 2013 to deter even savvy investors from entering and overleveraging the system.

The least we can do is to be thankful for the opportunity to rightsize your loan according to income. One should be aware of you have rightsized yourself, because the govt obviously have stats on this very tightly regulated market. Definitely not uncle aunty share and stock story.

In a booming market, it is the herd who chase after the prices and causing asset inflation. In a bear market, it is also the herd who cause major price correction.

The savvy investors are usually the first movers both in the bull and bear markets.

History always repeat itself because the man never learnt from past experience. Also new entrants to the market take time to learn hence make the same mistakes.

It is similar to the stock market. When uncles and aunties start to buy into the market, it is time to sell before prices rise to unstainable level. When uncles and aunties start to cut losses and sell, the savvy investors will be taking their picks as prices fall further.

It is happening now in CCR and RCR. It should be moving into OCR pretty soon.

[Arcachon]

The day if and when hdb owners can no longer buy a private (and hold on to their hdb) will be a killer change.

Don't think anyone so smart to piss off 80% of his voter.

[Arcachon]

But your key point had become history.......

Previously, Singapore private property prices rise rapidly, particularly in OCR, is because Singapore government allows many foreigners of middle-income salary (not the high-end type) coming to Singapore to work, become PR, brought their whole family here (from their home country) and buying OCR private properties to live in (they can't buy new HDB flats).

Given that foreigners' intake allowed by Government has trickle to such small number (because they want "Singapore core" workforce - based on what they sensed/were told majority Singaporeans wanted), coupled with very slow GDP growth and a lot of economic uncertainty and hence insecurity in jobs (higher risk of retrenchment anytime), significantly over-priced OCR private property prices now, little prospect of much monetary upside of Singaporeans' HDB flats (and OCR private property prices), and further compounded by the property cooling measures, OCR private properties prices are just DEAD! I won't be surprise if their price didn't even rise above recent peak price for next 10 years...........

Look like most have forgotten about the white paper. http://population.sg/

Most importantly, Mr Lee Kuan Yew is the one who strongly supported and willing to enforce "asset appreciation" (aka property appreciation) and see that this is achieved, and also believing that we should make the most hay while the sun shine (so if economy is strong and good, let the price appreciate!).

I don't think this property policy has been upheld by current government anymore - at least, I didn't see anybody in power still emphasizing (like Mr Lee) that their policy still focuses on "asset appreciation". Instead, what we see are pre-emptive property cooling measures to cool property prices quickly and strongly (which is the opposite of what Mr Lee had done/didn't do previously...........

Have been away for close to 9 years, everywhere I go in Singapore made me want to buy more property. All the infrastructure,green space, water body, etc. The control measure is to get as many on the Boat as possible, once the boat starts to move it will be harder to get on. Property investment is not only for the rich with the control measure but to those who know what is going on. LHL have told everyone what is going to happen to Singapore in the next 50 years how many care to make use of the message and act on it.

[Arcachon]

Durian drop don't buy, Durian don't drop complain. If Bank can loan me money I will still go and buy.

Key highlights for the 2015 report include:

There were more citizen marriages and births in 2014. More than 24,000 citizen marriages were registered, the highest since 1997. There were more than 33,000 citizen births; this was, along with citizen births in 2012 (Dragon year), the highest across the last decade.

The citizen population grew at a similar pace as last year to 3.38 million, with citizen births and calibrated immigration. The citizen population continues to age, with 13.1% aged 65 and above compared with 12.4% last year. The permanent resident (PR) population remained stable at 0.53 million.

The growth in the non-resident population continued to slow (don't know why don't use grow or more than) to 2.1% in 2015, down from 2.9% in 2014. This was mainly due to a slowdown in foreign workforce growth.

Singapore’s total population was 5.54 million as of June 2015. The total population grew by 1.2% from June 2014 to June 2015, the slowest in more than a decade.

[Arcachon]

2007 HDB allow whole house rent out after MOP and stay in the private property for SC. Did you see something I saw in the chart.

https://www.ecitizen.gov.sg/Topics/P...ers-guide.aspx

[Ilikeu]

In a booming market, it is the herd who chase after the prices and causing asset inflation. In a bear market, it is also the herd who cause major price correction.

The savvy investors are usually the first movers both in the bull and bear markets.

History always repeat itself because the man never learnt from past experience. Also new entrants to the market take time to learn hence make the same mistakes.

It is similar to the stock market. When uncles and aunties start to buy into the market, it is time to sell before prices rise to unstainable level. When uncles and aunties start to cut losses and sell, the savvy investors will be taking their picks as prices fall further.

It is happening now in CCR and RCR. It should be moving into OCR pretty soon.

Do you intend to sell your properties now (save for the one you are staying in) and goes into bonds?
Or you had already done so?

[Amber Woods]

Do you intend to sell your properties now (save for the one you are staying in) and goes into bonds?
Or you had already done so?

I am stating my views base on my observations of the market and nothing to do with my position in the market.

[Ilikeu]

I am stating my views base on my observations of the market and nothing to do with my position in the market.

I see. It is hard to walk the talk.

[walkthetiger]

In a booming market, it is the herd who chase after the prices and causing asset inflation. In a bear market, it is also the herd who cause major price correction.

The savvy investors are usually the first movers both in the bull and bear markets.

History always repeat itself because the man never learnt from past experience. Also new entrants to the market take time to learn hence make the same mistakes.

It is similar to the stock market. When uncles and aunties start to buy into the market, it is time to sell before prices rise to unstainable level. When uncles and aunties start to cut losses and sell, the savvy investors will be taking their picks as prices fall further.

It is happening now in CCR and RCR. It should be moving into OCR pretty soon.

The regular stubborn ones had followed those uncles and aunties, they too brought around the same time or slightly earlier, but they don't admit belonging the same group, they don't see themselves as herd too.
Their persistent views tell us they ain't investors with super sharp senses.... but it is just fortunate to know they still have enough money holding on to their investment properties...

"It is entirely engineered by the govt. Basically they got screwed by the govt".... Please be reminded 69.86% agreed.

[Ilikeu]

The regular stubborn ones had followed those uncles and aunties, they too brought around the same time or slightly earlier, but they don't admit belonging the same group, they don't see themselves as herd too.
Their persistent views tell us they ain't investors with super sharp senses.... but it is just fortunate to know they still have enough money holding on to their investment properties...

"It is entirely engineered by the govt. Basically they got screwed by the govt".... Please be reminded 69.86% agreed.

What is entirely engineered by the govt and got screwed by the govt?

[Ilikeu]

I see. It is hard to walk the talk.

I wouldn't say I am a excellent judgement of people, especially in online forums. But somehow, I feel very few forummers will walk the talk, with the exceptions of people like Arcachon (will buy another ppty anytime with loan), proud owner (strong believer in FX) and kelonguni (saving up to buy another ppty) that will indeed walk the talk... be it right or wrong judgmental call when they share their views.

[Amber Woods]

I wouldn't say I am a excellent judgement of people, especially in online forums. But somehow, I feel very few forummers will walk the talk, with the exceptions of people like Arcachon (will buy another ppty anytime with loan), proud owner (strong believer in FX) and kelonguni (saving up to buy another ppty) that will indeed walk the talk... be it right or wrong judgmental call when they share their views.

That is why their views are geared toward their beliefs hence lack a sense of neutrality.

[walkthetiger]

What is entirely engineered by the govt and got screwed by the govt?

"置于死地而后生" only chance....stubborn ones still didn't see it.. .. not sure if it is due to "怕輸", it seems they will do all and everything to avoid losing....waiting for better days...

[Ilikeu]

That is why their views are geared toward their beliefs hence lack a sense of neutrality.

That's why they are different from you. They walk the talk, not you.

[Ilikeu]

"置于死地而后生" only chance....stubborn ones still didn't see it.. .. not sure if it is due to "怕輸", it seems they will do all and everything to avoid losing....waiting for better days...

I am unable to grasp your reply to my question, probably not deep enough to understand.

[Amber Woods]

That's why they are different from you. They walk the talk, not you.

Neutrality speaks what they view the market is likely to behave and not what they hope the market will behave.

[Ilikeu]

Neutrality speaks what they view the market is likely to behave and not what they hope the market will behave.

We have noted your views. What actions, in brief, have you taken or will be taking?
Do you have any property(s) to begin with?

[Amber Woods]

We have noted your views. What actions, in brief, have you taken or will be taking?
Do you have any property(s) to begin with?

Neutrality!

[Ilikeu]

Neutrality!

Ok, I will take it that is alright to give theoretical textbook views and state neutrality at the end of the day.

[Kelonguni]

It's easy to give theoretical predictions based on personal bias.

You need to see it for yourselves and find out the profiles of those really buying and not pretend you know that they are the common uncles and aunties.

The sales data and caveats are transparent and not make believe for those who can let go of personal bias and take a hard look at the market. My opinions are based on those I know and their moves.