When will property crash?

[Joffrey]

When will crash? Family of four looking for investment property. We stay in HDB and household income around 10k.

[Arcachon]

Still waiting?

Don't buy when it crash or rise, buy when you can pay.

The Government has done all the thinking work for us, if you can meet the TDSR you are good to invest otherwise better don't.

Waiting for 2006 or 2009 then you have to wait a bit longer.

It will come again but you will only know after it happens.

[Joffrey]

Still waiting?

Don't buy when it crash or rise, buy when you can pay.

The Government has done all the thinking work for us, if you can meet the TDSR you are good to invest otherwise better don't.

Waiting for 2006 or 2009 then you have to wait a bit longer.

It will come again but you will only know after it happens.

We still have outstanding loan for HDB around 100k. Saving is around 200k+. Should we go for it?

[Arcachon]

Go for one within your mean.

HDB Loan doesn't pay they will not take it unless you use Bank loan.

If now can buy, wait for it to drop. How many years are you prepare to wait?

Every year wait is another year less to loan.

The property is to buy as many as you can when you are young.

When you are old its time to start selling.

You bring nothing into this World, you are not taking anything either when it is time to go.

[Sandiwara]

Even when property already crash some people will ask when property will be crash. Because no one know until is already recover.

[Pynchmail]

When will crash? Family of four looking for investment property. We stay in HDB and household income around 10k.

Will also depend on your age and whether your household income will be increasing.

[propertycarrots]

Even when property already crash some people will ask when property will be crash. Because no one know until is already recover.

I agree. Certainly sectors and tiers have crashed. Look hard enough at the past caveats and you can easily tell which are the ones

[indomie]

Good properties never crash. If u are waiting to buy crashed property, u are not buying a good property. Imagine a tree with stump and branches. A tree stump is solid, whereas branches are more fragile. In bad weather branches are more likely to get torn off than the stump.

Always get into the basics when buying property. There are reasons why some property is cheap, where other are expensive.

[Kelonguni]

The problem is the sector that they are looking at not only did not crash, it appeared to rise marginally or becoming smaller and smaller.

[teddybear]

Whoever said property market/price will NOT CRASH?
The person must still be dreaming in his/her la-la land.......

History and FACTUAL EVENTS in the past has shown that even when the property market and price going to CRASH, even when the Government goes all out to implement all kinds of property HEATING measures and loose loaning policies and similar alternatives (like allowing deferred payment scheme), the property market/price STILL CRASH!

The person better looks no further than the period after the Great Financial Crisis of 1997, from 1998-2005, that is an almost 8 LONG YEARS when property price get stuck in the MUD! (and don't dream that property price will always recover quickly! - It may take 8 LONG YEARS!)

That is the ULTIMATE FACT about property price!

[indomie]

Whoever said property market/price will NOT CRASH?
The person must still be dreaming in his/her la-la land.......

History and FACTUAL EVENTS in the past has shown that even when the property market and price going to CRASH, even when the Government goes all out to implement all kinds of property HEATING measures and loose loaning policies and similar alternatives (like allowing deferred payment scheme), the property market/price STILL CRASH!

The person better looks no further than the period after the Great Financial Crisis of 1997, from 1998-2005, that is an almost 8 LONG YEARS when property price get stuck in the MUD! (and don't dream that property price will always recover quickly! - It may take 8 LONG YEARS!)

That is the ULTIMATE FACT about property price!

Good property never crash. If you have to wait for sale to come at bargain bin, it is most likely not a good buy in the first place.

Good property attract kind of buyers who are not price oriented and more toward value oriented.

To judge value out of property u need vision and experience. Should u think that u don't have enough vision and experience, just follow the biggest player in the game. In SG market, gov is the biggest player. Get ahead of the latest news which area is undergoing the biggest development. Just follow the money trail, whether it is infrastructure spending, new hospital, new school.

If u can get ahead of the information and u can buy the property in the area faster and cheaper than other people, u are buying good property. This is why I say, waiting for a crash is a wrong attitude toward property investment.

[Newbie1]

Follow government developments?
Means buy Jurong and Paya Lebar at 2000pfs?? and Marina at 3000pfs?

Good property never crash. If you have to wait for sale to come at bargain bin, it is most likely not a good buy in the first place.

Good property attract kind of buyers who are not price oriented and more toward value oriented.

To judge value out of property u need vision and experience. Should u think that u don't have enough vision and experience, just follow the biggest player in the game. In SG market, gov is the biggest player. Get ahead of the latest news which area is undergoing the biggest development. Just follow the money trail, whether it is infrastructure spending, new hospital, new school. If u can get ahead of the information and u can buy the property in the area faster and cheaper than other people, u are buying good property. This is why I say, waiting for a crash is a wrong attitude toward property investment.

[teddybear]

Yes, you are right!
We should follow the BIGGEST PLAYER in the game - the Government!

When the BIGGEST PLAYER (here the Government) only holds FREEHOLD LAND and will NEVER SELL his FREEHOLD LAND (but will only sell them as 99-years Lease to you), now, you said you will follow the Government, and then would you be so stupid to buy 99-years Leasehold property (instead of following them to buy Freehold land and properties for long long time and don't sell)?!

Good property never crash. If you have to wait for sale to come at bargain bin, it is most likely not a good buy in the first place.

Good property attract kind of buyers who are not price oriented and more toward value oriented.

To judge value out of property u need vision and experience. Should u think that u don't have enough vision and experience, just follow the biggest player in the game. In SG market, gov is the biggest player. Get ahead of the latest news which area is undergoing the biggest development. Just follow the money trail, whether it is infrastructure spending, new hospital, new school.

If u can get ahead of the information and u can buy the property in the area faster and cheaper than other people, u are buying good property. This is why I say, waiting for a crash is a wrong attitude toward property investment.

[indomie]

Follow government developments?
Means buy Jurong and Paya Lebar at 2000pfs?? and Marina at 3000pfs?

Most property prices are formulated as 75% current value + 25% future value. So when u buy a property, it's already taking into account future 25% increase.

What it means the minute u buy a property, u are already paying 25% too much. To convert this 25% future value into current value, u need time variable. The longer your holding power, the bigger your current value.

[Kelonguni]

The Govt has unlimited capital and is a price setter with one of the primary aims to aid social levelling through various policies, especially education and housing.

For example, HDB flats may not have a high price tag when bought, but it offers many the chance to focus on income, upgrade when ready, or for some, a million dollar price when sold.

Can any individual or corporation say they can satisfy unlimited capital and price setting? If not, whichever status of property one has is subject to Govt allowing the recognition of its value in line with social strategies.

Yes, you are right!
We should follow the BIGGEST PLAYER in the game - the Government!

When the BIGGEST PLAYER (here the Government) only holds FREEHOLD LAND and will NEVER SELL his FREEHOLD LAND (but will only sell them as 99-years Lease to you), now, you said you will follow the Government, and then would you be so stupid to buy 99-years Leasehold property (instead of following them to buy Freehold land and properties for long long time and don't sell)?!

[indomie]

The Govt has unlimited capital and is a price setter with one of the primary aims to aid social levelling through various policies, especially education and housing.

For example, HDB flats may not have a high price tag when bought, but it offers many the chance to focus on income, upgrade when ready, or for some, a million dollar price when sold.

Can any individual or corporation say they can satisfy unlimited capital and price setting? If not, whichever status of property one has is subject to Govt allowing the recognition of its value in line with social strategies.

HDB is one of the unique property which current value is almost 100%. So the future value is not even taken into account yet. The gov selling it at almost no profit, minimal transactional cost and financing cost.

Current value doesn't get crashed in any market conditions. So when buying any property keep in mind it's true current value and future value. Future value is rather fragile, because once the future projection doesn't get realized the price will comes down. This is when people lose money on property.

[teddybear]

Really??? The gov selling HDB flats at almost no profit???
That is real joke!

They bought most of those HDB flats' land from people at <$1 psf of land area with FREEHOLD title (even when market price is already >$150 psf) and now selling at >$300 psf ppr of HDB flats' floor area with just 99-years land lease or >$840 psf of 99-years land lease (assuming plot ratio of 2.8) and if those difference of >$839 psf land area from Freehold to become 99-years leasehold is not HUGE PROFIT then what is "PROFIT"?

HDB is one of the unique property which current value is almost 100%. So the future value is not even taken into account yet. The gov selling it at almost no profit, minimal transactional cost and financing cost.

Current value doesn't get crashed in any market conditions. So when buying any property keep in mind it's true current value and future value. Future value is rather fragile, because once the future projection doesn't get realized the price will comes down. This is when people lose money on property.

[Kelonguni]

HDB pray will auto assemble from the sky?

Construction costs? Manpower costs? Administration and arbitration?

Really??? The gov selling HDB flats at almost no profit???
That is real joke!

They bought most of those HDB flats' land from people at <$1 psf of land area with FREEHOLD title (even when market price is already >$150 psf) and now selling at >$300 psf ppr of HDB flats' floor area with just 99-years land lease or >$840 psf of 99-years land lease (assuming plot ratio of 2.8) and if those difference of >$839 psf land area from Freehold to become 99-years leasehold is not HUGE PROFIT then what is "PROFIT"?

[teddybear]

Ask you, how much does a 5-room BTO HDB flat costs?
How much is the construction costs?

HDB pray will auto assemble from the sky?

Construction costs? Manpower costs? Administration and arbitration?

Really??? The gov selling HDB flats at almost no profit???
That is real joke!

They bought most of those HDB flats' land from people at <$1 psf of land area with FREEHOLD title (even when market price is already >$150 psf) and now selling at >$300 psf ppr of HDB flats' floor area with just 99-years land lease or >$840 psf of 99-years land lease (assuming plot ratio of 2.8) and if those difference of >$839 psf land area from Freehold to become 99-years leasehold is not HUGE PROFIT then what is "PROFIT"?

[Kelonguni]

Ask you, how much does a 5-room BTO HDB flat costs?
How much is the construction costs?

Minimum 150psf. Maximum 250psf.

Construction is only part of the costs, to maintain the whole HDB machinery involves costs as well.

[Arcachon]

Ask you, how much does a 5-room BTO HDB flat costs?
How much is the construction costs?

Let me guess, 126 sqm(1356 sqft) bought at SGD 225,600 in 1995.

about 166 sqft everything included.

[teddybear]

By the way, in 1995, construction costs for BTO HDB flats only about $50 psf.
That means, after construction costs, the difference is like about $157,256. The majority of these are attributed to the 99-years lease land costs, of which the actual cost to the government is about $0.60 psf of land area (where this figure is for FH and not 99-years LH), assuming plot ratio of 2.8 means actual costs is $0.60/2.8 = $0.214 psf ppr of built-up area.
So profits to government is about $157,256 - (0.214 x 1356) = $156,965 per 5-room HDB flat in 1995!

How much is a 126 sqm 5-room HDB flat now in say Sengkang or Punggol?
And what is the construction costs?

Let me guess, 126 sqm(1356 sqft) bought at SGD 225,600 in 1995.

about 166 sqft everything included.

[Arcachon]

By the way, in 1995, construction costs for BTO HDB flats only about $50 psf.
That means, after construction costs, the difference is like about $157,256. The majority of these are attributed to the 99-years lease land costs, of which the actual cost to the government is about $0.60 psf of land area (where this figure is for FH and not 99-years LH), assuming plot ratio of 2.8 means actual costs is $0.60/2.8 = $0.214 psf ppr of built-up area.
So profits to government is about $157,256 - (0.214 x 1356) = $156,965 per 5-room HDB flat in 1995!

How much is a 126 sqm 5-room HDB flat now in say Sengkang or Punggol?
And what is the construction costs?

I think you getting close to what I trying to say.

Money before September 15, 2008, everyone was told they cannot print their problem away.

After America show the World how to print their problem away, everyone start printing.

Same 2 Bedroom, Same area, Same construction material from Jun 2006 to Jun 2010 appreciate 1,000,000.

[teddybear]

HDB flats construction costs, based on estimation, could NOT BE more than $150 psf even at current level, which means $150 psf is MAX, not min...............

Don't forget, private condo units cost of construction, inclusive of flooring, fully furnished wardrobes, kitchen cabinets, bathrooms, and even electrical appliances and car parks is only about $250-300 psf.

HDB builds car park which they then continue to collect $$$ (and hence these costs cannot be charged to HDB flats' buyers).

So You mean HDB is so inefficient to need so much overhead (as compared to private property developers whose selling price usually about 20% above land+construction costs and still made GOOD PROFITs)?

If this is so, then that is worrying, just wondering whether CPF managing CPF Life also has very high overheads in order to maintain the whole CPF Life machinery????

Minimum 150psf. Maximum 250psf.

Construction is only part of the costs, to maintain the whole HDB machinery involves costs as well.

[Kelonguni]

When was the last time you paid for parks and badminton court, basketball court, road lamps, covered walkways etc?

Actually the problem is not just costs. It's easy to rent out flats to cover more than mortgage. How can it be sold lower?

A car cost is also 20k but sold to owners become 100k.

HDB flats construction costs, based on estimation, could NOT BE more than $150 psf even at current level, which means $150 psf is MAX, not min...............

Don't forget, private condo units cost of construction, inclusive of flooring, fully furnished wardrobes, kitchen cabinets, bathrooms, and even electrical appliances and car parks is only about $250-300 psf.

HDB builds car park which they then continue to collect $$$ (and hence these costs cannot be charged to HDB flats' buyers).

So You mean HDB is so inefficient to need so much overhead (as compared to private property developers whose selling price usually about 20% above land+construction costs and still made GOOD PROFITs)?

If this is so, then that is worrying, just wondering whether CPF managing CPF Life also has very high overheads in order to maintain the whole CPF Life machinery????

[teddybear]

What? You mean HDB flat buyers need to pay for the parks, badminton courts, basketball courts, road lamps, covered walkways etc??? Was those items mentioned as costs included when a couple buys a new BTO HDB flat?

When was the last time you paid for parks and badminton court, basketball court, road lamps, covered walkways etc?

[Kelonguni]

Then? Money drop from the sky or park drop from the sky?

Increase income tax people kp, increase GST people kb, how else to best draw money to build useful facilities?

What? You mean HDB flat buyers need to pay for the parks, badminton courts, basketball courts, road lamps, covered walkways etc??? Was those items mentioned as costs included when a couple buys a new BTO HDB flat?

[teddybear]

Wow! This is the FIRST TIME I heard HDB flats' prices include costs to build parks, badminton courts, basketball courts, road lamps, covered walkways etc!

Wait a minute, NOW you seem to be telling us that those car parks building costs are charged to HDB flats' buyers but HDB/Government collect the revenue and put into their pocket???

Wait a minute, those badminton courts, basketball courts, parks etc, paid by HDB flats' buyers, do HDB flats' owners have exclusive privilege and priority to book and use these courts? (just like private property owners who paid for them and hence have exclusive privilege and priority to use them!)

Wait a minute, isn't road lamps belong to roads, and LTA already collected road taxes and COEs from car users to pay for all these construction and maintenance?

Wait a minute, isn't GST, income taxes etc collected to provide facilities, support PA, etc and also pay for the parks, covered walkways etc?

Wait a minute, all those you mentioned seemed to be owned by other government statutory boards (NOT owned by HDB) and are already covered by taxes collected from other sources (by other Government statutory boards), suddenly you claimed they are paid by HDB and actually these money are collected from HDB flats' owners???

Don't bullshit lah!

If like that, SLA sell land to HDB at market price of >$8xx psf of 99-years LH land, HDB still considered making HUGE profits! (since HDB pay for other statutory boards all those costs from their selling HDB flats' revenue, all other statutory boards also cover HDB costs and share their tax revenue!)
Or using your analogy, it is not wrong to say that Government making HUGE profits (via HDB & SLA).......

Then? Money drop from the sky or park drop from the sky?

Increase income tax people kp, increase GST people kb, how else to best draw money to build useful facilities?

What? You mean HDB flat buyers need to pay for the parks, badminton courts, basketball courts, road lamps, covered walkways etc??? Was those items mentioned as costs included when a couple buys a new BTO HDB flat?

[Kelonguni]

It's simple enough for me. All revenues are ultimately used for the long term survival needs and to maintain or improve standard of living of the mass.

What a flat buyer can derive of the flat and it's vicinity by living in it or by renting it out far outweighs the mortgage he puts in it. This is a globally recognized price. And it's good enough for most.

Do you even have a hdb or ever had one?

Wow! This is the FIRST TIME I heard HDB flats' prices include costs to build parks, badminton courts, basketball courts, road lamps, covered walkways etc!

Wait a minute, NOW you seem to be telling us that those car parks building costs are charged to HDB flats' buyers but HDB/Government collect the revenue and put into their pocket???

Wait a minute, those badminton courts, basketball courts, parks etc, paid by HDB flats' buyers, do HDB flats' owners have exclusive privilege and priority to book and use these courts? (just like private property owners who paid for them and hence have exclusive privilege and priority to use them!)

Wait a minute, isn't road lamps belong to roads, and LTA already collected road taxes and COEs from car users to pay for all these construction and maintenance?

Wait a minute, isn't GST, income taxes etc collected to provide facilities, support PA, etc and also pay for the parks, covered walkways etc?

Wait a minute, all those you mentioned seemed to be owned by other government statutory boards (NOT owned by HDB) and are already covered by taxes collected from other sources (by other Government statutory boards), suddenly you claimed they are paid by HDB and actually these money are collected from HDB flats' owners???

Don't bullshit lah!

If like that, SLA sell land to HDB at market price of >$8xx psf of 99-years LH land, HDB still considered making HUGE profits! (since HDB pay for other statutory boards all those costs from their selling HDB flats' revenue, all other statutory boards also cover HDB costs and share their tax revenue!)
Or using your analogy, it is not wrong to say that Government making HUGE profits (via HDB & SLA).......

[teddybear]

Wait a minute, why are you deviating from the questions I posed to you about your claim that HDB priced HDB flats that already included the costs to build HDB car parks, parks, badminton courts, basketball courts, road lamps, covered walkways etc???

So I supposed that is plain BULLSHIT and ABSURD and you have abandoned your bullshit claim???

If this is the case, then you can't deny that Government as a whole still make BIG PROFITS from selling BTO HDB flats (via the land they acquired at <$1 psf of FH land area that their subsidiary SLA then sell to HDB at market price of >$800 psf of 99-years LH land area).......

It's simple enough for me. All revenues are ultimately used for the long term survival needs and to maintain or improve standard of living of the mass.

What a flat buyer can derive of the flat and it's vicinity by living in it or by renting it out far outweighs the mortgage he puts in it. This is a globally recognized price. And it's good enough for most.

Do you even have a hdb or ever had one?

Wow! This is the FIRST TIME I heard HDB flats' prices include costs to build parks, badminton courts, basketball courts, road lamps, covered walkways etc!

Wait a minute, NOW you seem to be telling us that those car parks building costs are charged to HDB flats' buyers but HDB/Government collect the revenue and put into their pocket???

Wait a minute, those badminton courts, basketball courts, parks etc, paid by HDB flats' buyers, do HDB flats' owners have exclusive privilege and priority to book and use these courts? (just like private property owners who paid for them and hence have exclusive privilege and priority to use them!)

Wait a minute, isn't road lamps belong to roads, and LTA already collected road taxes and COEs from car users to pay for all these construction and maintenance?

Wait a minute, isn't GST, income taxes etc collected to provide facilities, support PA, etc and also pay for the parks, covered walkways etc?

Wait a minute, all those you mentioned seemed to be owned by other government statutory boards (NOT owned by HDB) and are already covered by taxes collected from other sources (by other Government statutory boards), suddenly you claimed they are paid by HDB and actually these money are collected from HDB flats' owners???

Don't bullshit lah!

If like that, SLA sell land to HDB at market price of >$8xx psf of 99-years LH land, HDB still considered making HUGE profits! (since HDB pay for other statutory boards all those costs from their selling HDB flats' revenue, all other statutory boards also cover HDB costs and share their tax revenue!)
Or using your analogy, it is not wrong to say that Government making HUGE profits (via HDB & SLA).......