Any Fundamental to Support the Current Run-Away GLS/Enbloc Pricees

[indomie]

i am pretty sure that there exist property experts that can enter & exit properties at the turn of a dime, buy in the morning and sell in the same evening. but unfortunately i am not one. at least for me, buying and selling can take weeks to months. same for renting too.
hence i would rather be an hour early than a second late.
perhaps i am just plain unlucky or lousy. i am not sure about the other forummers here. do you all take weeks/months or just hours to complete?

Your property strategy is not evolving. Personally I gain so much from this forum. I am getting closer to my aim of staying vested but remain liquid in cash. We can have the best of both world.

[hopeful]

well use whatever method that works and comfortable with.
out of how many "evolutions", how many fails and how many succeed.

how about we work out some numbers?
for completed properties, buying in 2013 and renting out for 3 years vs buying in 2016.
does the reduction in price in 2016 offset the NETT rental income for 3 years?
if you want to change the period, no problem too, but of course dont say buy in 2006 + rent out for 10 years vs buying in 2016

[indomie]

well use whatever method that works and comfortable with.
out of how many "evolutions", how many fails and how many succeed.

how about we work out some numbers?
for completed properties, buying in 2013 and renting out for 3 years vs buying in 2016.
does the reduction in price in 2016 offset the NETT rental income for 3 years?
if you want to change the period, no problem too, but of course dont say buy in 2006 + rent out for 10 years vs buying in 2016

I started with buying a couple of cheap property in 2010 and selling some of them for capital gain to pay off some of the mortgages

[hopeful]

I started with buying a couple of cheap property in 2010 and selling some of them for capital gain to pay off some of the mortgages

buy cheap sell expensive. thats a very good strategy. and how has that strategy evolved over time?
would you better off selling all the properties rather than holding some of them for rental income? how many months of NETT rental income would it take to cover the drop in equity for example?

just curious at that point in time in 2010, do you think the properties were cheap? or only cheap in hindsight?

[indomie]

buy cheap sell expensive. thats a very good strategy. and how has that strategy evolved over time?
would you better off selling all the properties rather than holding some of them for rental income? how many months of NETT rental income would it take to cover the drop in equity for example?

just curious at that point in time in 2010, do you think the properties were cheap? or only cheap in hindsight?

My strategy has changed now. I no longer go for penny stock property. I am going for blue chip property. I am still keeping the property that pay for itself.

Back in 2010 for example it is cheaper to buy SG property than Indonesia property, because bank loan is easy to get. In Indonesia for premium property is mostly cash. I knew it was cheap because with 300k.. I can buy 1 million dollar property. As a foreigner I can see it was cheap.

Even today I still can't believe that some singaporeans without absd refuse to buy. Compare to other places on earth...your property product is cheap in term of infrastructures...
Especially ocr.

[hopeful]

strategy is still buy low, sell high.
please do not change to buy high, sell higher or even worse buy high, sell low.

you threw a dart at any property with min current yield 4%, that property is going to pay for itself.
so what do you consider blue chip property and penny stock property?

singapore is attractive because at this point in time, it is where rental can cover mortgage payment. this was always not so. there was a long stretch of time when rental cannot cover mortgage payment.

have you work out the calculations?
in 2015, would you be better off selling rather than keeping it?
in 2016, would you be better off selling rather than keeping it?
in 2017, would you be better off selling rather than keeping it?
better off selling rather keeping it depends on time period is it not.

has anybody else calculate buy in 2013 and rental income more worth it than buy in 2015,2016?

this thread is not just me and indomie

[stl67]

strategy is still buy low, sell high.
please do not change to buy high, sell higher or even worse buy high, sell low.

you threw a dart at any property with min current yield 4%, that property is going to pay for itself.
so what do you consider blue chip property and penny stock property?

singapore is attractive because at this point in time, it is where rental can cover mortgage payment. this was always not so. there was a long stretch of time when rental cannot cover mortgage payment.

have you work out the calculations?
in 2015, would you be better off selling rather than keeping it?
in 2016, would you be better off selling rather than keeping it?
in 2017, would you be better off selling rather than keeping it?
better off selling rather keeping it depends on time period is it not.

has anybody else calculate buy in 2013 and rental income more worth it than buy in 2015,2016?

this thread is not just me and indomie

Not sure I understand your question correctly. For me, if I do not need the money, i will keep even with no rental because the cost of entry is very high especially now with ABSD.

[indomie]

Not sure I understand your question correctly. For me, if I do not need the money, i will keep even with no rental because the cost of entry is very high especially now with ABSD.

I agree....sometimes doing nothing is a form of strategy.

[hopeful]

Not sure I understand your question correctly. For me, if I do not need the money, i will keep even with no rental because the cost of entry is very high especially now with ABSD.

and with no rental, you would be paying the mortgage from your salary (and other income). and it is not a matter of want to keep, it is a matter whether you can keep, which depends on your ability to service the mortgage. i think most bank mortgagees would rather keep their properties rather than sell it at a loss.

question1: for those who want to rent out property
if you have to pay ABSD whether you buy in 2013 and 2015/2016.
would you better off buying in 2013 and earn 2-3 years rental income vs buying in 2015/2016.

question2: for those who is a tenant and who want to buy
if you have to pay rental from 2013 to 2015/2016.
would you be better off buying in 2013 or pay 2-3 years rental expenses and buying in 2015/2016.

the answer of course depends on time period and what property CCR/RCR/OCR.
for question2, i think nobody would dispute that it is better to pay 2-3 years rental expenses in CCR and buy CCR in 2015/2016.

for the rest, do your own calculation with your own properties and if you want, share your findings in the forums.

[indomie]

Let me give a little quiz in 2010 I have a choice to buy:
A. 300k property in Jakarta in cash
B. 1 million dollar property in SG with 300k down payment

Now the Jkt property has double in value (100% increase)...while Sg property has increase by 10% to 1.1 million

Which one better?

[hopeful]

the thing i want to say is timing. get the timing right, and it is plain sailing, like buying southbank in 2006 allows one owner to keep on repeating ad-nauseum that he gets $1mio (paper gains) in 4 years. there are other properties (eg.citysquare residences, the sail), but the owners seems to be keeping awfully quiet about their paper gains. beats me why.

if get timing wrong, buying CCR in 2007 vs 2006. what a world of difference 1 year make. one laugh to the bank, one cry to the bank.

[hopeful]

Let me give a little quiz in 2010 I have a choice to buy:
A. 300k property in Jakarta in cash
B. 1 million dollar property in SG with 300k down payment

Now the Jkt property has double in value (100% increase)...while Sg property has increase by 10% to 1.1 million

Which one better?

trick question? would be better off getting the jakarta property.

[stl67]

and with no rental, you would be paying the mortgage from your salary (and other income). and it is not a matter of want to keep, it is a matter whether you can keep, which depends on your ability to service the mortgage. i think most bank mortgagees would rather keep their properties rather than sell it at a loss.

.

Correct. This is why I say if I dont need money meaning i have other income to service the mortgage, I will not sell. But if I need money, I will sell even at a loss. But luckily have not resorted to this stage yet.

[indomie]

trick question? would be better off getting the jakarta property.

hahaha... you are wrong

the Jakarta property now value at SGD 420k (600k minus currency depreciation 30%). Rental return barely cover repairs.

the Singapore property now value:
300k original down payment
100k capital gain
7x25k rental paid into equity = 175k

TOTAL = 575k

This is what I call experience....u can't learn this at school

[Tomutomi]

Consideing SGD to IDR rate increased from 6500 im 2010 to 9500 in 2017, the absolute home price increase in SGD term is only 37% (within 7 years)

If you bought SG property in 2010 and sold it in 2013, you might able to get 20-40% increased (within 3 years, depending on location CCR is lower, RCR higher)

Let me give a little quiz in 2010 I have a choice to buy:
A. 300k property in Jakarta in cash
B. 1 million dollar property in SG with 300k down payment

Now the Jkt property has double in value (100% increase)...while Sg property has increase by 10% to 1.1 million

Which one better?

[Amber Woods]

hahaha... you are wrong

the Jakarta property now value at SGD 420k (600k minus currency depreciation 30%). Rental return barely cover repairs.

the Singapore property now value:
300k original down payment
100k capital gain
7x25k rental paid into equity = 175k

TOTAL = 575k

This is what I call experience....u can't learn this at school

So if you are Singaporean, will you time your purchase or just buy like what you and that French guy are advocating over the last 7 years?

[hopeful]

hahaha... you are wrong

the Jakarta property now value at SGD 420k (600k minus currency depreciation 30%). Rental return barely cover repairs.

the Singapore property now value:
300k original down payment
100k capital gain
7x25k rental paid into equity = 175k

TOTAL = 575k

This is what I call experience....u can't learn this at school

good one. you caught me there. i am much humbled by your experience
this is a teachable moment for kelonguni, if you are caught pants down regarding the some wrong facts, eg the yield of your 1st property. just admit it. try not to beat about the bush and smoke your way through, which make it worse.
see the difference in my response vs your response.

i will pay myself on the back for being a good loser

[Kelonguni]

What about the yield?

I already said can't reveal everything to you lor.

It's you who did not read my post carefully. The yield was calculated based on the amount I paid (forfeited), aka purchase price. It was not based on current prices.

And while I can cash out to go for other instruments, no other instrument I know has such yields even based on today's price, not even the COCO bonds or something. And got to pay tax both ways to replace. Why bother?

Just read that original post again if you have time.

good one. you caught me there. i am much humbled by your experience
this is a teachable moment for kelonguni, if you are caught pants down regarding the some wrong facts, eg the yield of your 1st property. just admit it. try not to beat about the bush and smoke your way through, which make it worse.
see the difference in my response vs your response.

i will pay myself on the back for being a good loser

[hopeful]

What about the yield?

I already said can't reveal everything to you lor.

It's you who did not read my post carefully. The yield was calculated based on the amount I paid (forfeited), aka purchase price. It was not based on current prices.

forummers here can read the exchange and can decide for themselves who are the one smoking.

of course one cannot reveal everything because if reveal what type of property and year purchased, people can start to fact-check the claims.

the grandiose statement "more than a decade of understanding how the system works........many scenario role play, big environment predictions, and anticipation of authority action I have had to make at my end to be so lucky" do sounds VERY IMPRESSIVE.
but if after all that studies, it doesn't not produce outsize returns (and every tom, dick, harry achieving similar yield), then the statement is a big letdown. nobody would be impressed, to put it mildly

so i do understand if you cannot reveal everything. I am such an understanding guy. i am patting myself on the back again

[Kelonguni]

My strategy is just to deploy small sums based on equities to achieve hit and run yields and sometimes longer term yields.

As long as the sums are not big, I am not psychologically compromised, and decisions can be made swiftly.

When my accumulated sum is big enough, it will go into a property to "fix" it. Not looking to sell when the price is high (for property), unless I need to sell. For equities, I buy and sell quite regularly.

This is my equity gain for May 2017, excluding dividends collected. I did not sell all of it.

[Kelonguni]

Not even collecting money for my sharing of experience, unlike some property gurus who hold "sure-win" or "sure-gain" courses and seminars.

You can choose to learn as much as you can, or you can choose to force someone to clam up.

Its true we have been thinking about how the SG system works. We do many scenario role plays and have at least gone through the full length of the cycle, we predict China / India / Indonesia / Malaysia environment and strategies, and anticipate and experience how our local authorities decide on actions to cool the market and soft land the market. Which part do you think we smoke you? Must I print a copy of my deeds and purchase agreements to show you?

forummers here can read the exchange and can decide for themselves who are the one smoking.

of course one cannot reveal everything because if reveal what type of property and year purchased, people can start to fact-check the claims.

the grandiose statement "more than a decade of understanding how the system works........many scenario role play, big environment predictions, and anticipation of authority action I have had to make at my end to be so lucky" do sounds VERY IMPRESSIVE.
but if after all that studies, it doesn't not produce outsize returns (and every tom, dick, harry achieving similar yield), then the statement is a big letdown. nobody would be impressed, to put it mildly

so i do understand if you cannot reveal everything. I am such an understanding guy. i am patting myself on the back again

[hopeful]

Not even collecting money for my sharing of experience, unlike some property gurus who hold "sure-win" or "sure-gain" courses and seminars.

You can choose to learn as much as you can, or you can choose to force someone to clam up.

Its true we have been thinking about how the SG system works. We do many scenario role plays and have at least gone through the full length of the cycle, we predict China / India / Indonesia / Malaysia environment and strategies, and anticipate and experience how our local authorities decide on actions to cool the market and soft land the market. Which part do you think we smoke you? Must I print a copy of my deeds and purchase agreements to show you?

how did "I" becomes "We" ????
no need deeds and purchases, just name and year. that will do.
if you think revealing the names and year of purchase can en-able forummers to reverse-engineer your winning formula and thus causing you ALL (since it is "we") to lose the winning edge, then no need to reveal. I do understand the need for secrecy of the winning formula. by the way, do you need to seek permission first from the others "we" to reveal the names and year of purchase?

[Kelonguni]

how did "I" becomes "We" ????
no need deeds and purchases, just name and year. that will do.
if you think revealing the names and year of purchase can en-able forummers to reverse-engineer your winning formula and thus causing you ALL (since it is "we") to lose the winning edge, then no need to reveal. I do understand the need for secrecy of the winning formula. by the way, do you need to seek permission first from the others "we" to reveal the names and year of purchase?

We is not with you... We is a collective with other forummers who have been here for years and whom see what I see regarding property. We see how US wreaked havoc on the world in 2008, you see? We see low interest rates for a decade and beyond, you see? We see a viable red dot that is more valuable than prices seem to indicate, you see? You not happy, change it to "I". It's just academia.

There was once a long time ago, a sister shared her purchases with other forummers. She was even featured on TV or news buying property for her kids. In the end, she had to keep quiet for a long time.

There is nothing you can reverse engineer. You run your own track.

I prefer privacy, nothing about permission or what you imagine.

You don't see my point, then wait.

[Kelonguni]

In a land where HUDC (something like ECs in the past) owners who have depleted 30-40 years of lease end up being multimillionaires, what evidence do you still need about the inherent value and worth of SG property? Where on this tiny red dot won't do well over time?

Understand your own needs and reach out for what meets your needs.

[hopeful]

We is not with you... We is a collective with other forummers who have been here for years and whom see what I see regarding property. We see how US wreaked havoc on the world in 2008, you see? We see low interest rates for a decade and beyond, you see? We see a viable red dot that is more valuable than prices seem to indicate, you see? You not happy, change it to "I". It's just academia.

...

ahhh, nothing to do with reverse engineering, thats good. just privacy concerns. surely it does not hurt your privacy to reveal the name of the 1st property. you can even leave out the year purchased.
that 1st property and the astounding claims of yield that started off this whole exchange

[Reisor]

The only thing that can slow the rise now is if Govt announces much higher GLS supply for 2H2017.

But in the short term, there will still be supply crunch coming right ahead.

Hi, your observation is similar to what property experts is saying now.(be it layman, agent or analyst). This seems to be the window period for enbloc property as developers are hungry for land to tide through their core business. Govt will step in when enbloc fever overheats. Just like CMs resulting in TDSR, there will always be a list of ready policies available.

[Reisor]

My strategy has changed now. I no longer go for penny stock property. I am going for blue chip property. I am still keeping the property that pay for itself. ..........................

Even today I still can't believe that some singaporeans without absd refuse to buy. Compare to other places on earth...your property product is cheap in term of infrastructures...
Especially ocr.

Hi, your last sentence is probably the most reassuring advice to all prop investor in Sg. Met many citizens same as you over the past 7 years, many have been eyeing Sg property not only as investment but double up as a safe haven

[indomie]

Hi, your last sentence is probably the most reassuring advice to all prop investor in Sg. Met many citizens same as you over the past 7 years, many have been eyeing Sg property not only as investment but double up as a safe haven

Hi...not many people understand that Sg gov doesn't have to run deficit to fund for its infrastructure. So basically Singapore dollar doesn't need to depreciate. Other countries need to borrow money to build infrastructures, which create pressure on their currency. So even other countries has significant rise in price, the effect is easily negate by currency devaluation.

[tonymontana]

Let me give a little quiz in 2010 I have a choice to buy:
A. 300k property in Jakarta in cash
B. 1 million dollar property in SG with 300k down payment

Now the Jkt property has double in value (100% increase)...while Sg property has increase by 10% to 1.1 million

Which one better?

should be Singapore.

[tonymontana]

another prime piece of old real estate bought over:

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/prope...r-orchard-road