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Thread: Keep foreign bidders out of housing

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    Default Keep foreign bidders out of housing

    Keep foreign bidders out of housing

    Loh Keng Fatt

    JUN 11, 2017

    Overly exuberant bids for residential plots will put homes out of reach for ordinary S'poreans


    Consumers in Singapore have raised a ruckus over paying high prices for milk powder, a situation attributed to an imperfect market dominated by a small number of suppliers.

    Milk powder is a necessity and parents have called on the authorities to step in and not just allow market forces to prevail to determine prices since buyers and sellers are not on the same level playing field.

    Property is another product where buyers have not much power to call the shots and where one recent disturbing development - if not checked, I feel - has the potential to stir a lot of unhappiness too.

    I am not alone among property watchers in noting that cash-rich foreign developers have put in arguably over-exuberant bids to clinch residential plots released under the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme.

    My friends and I are perturbed by the impact of this trend on, for example, the ability of our children to move up the property ladder in the future, given the knock-on effect on selling prices.

    Private property values have fallen by 11.2 per cent since a peak in the third quarter of 2013 because of cooling measures in large part, the media reported in January.

    But sentiment has since turned a corner, with recent launches doing well and land sales registering a surge in the number of bidders.

    My friends and I have noted with some alarm the aggressive bids put in by Chinese and Malaysian developers.

    On June 1, the media reported that a Chinese developer had offered 22 per cent more than the next highest bidder for a landed property site in Lorong 1 Realty Park.

    Last month, Hong Kong-listed Shenzhen developer Logan Property Holdings and Shandong-based Nanshan Group jointly clinched a sizeable plot in Stirling Road in Queenstown with their offer of $1.003 billion.

    It was the first time that a residential site breached the $1 billion mark in the history of the GLS programme. The price is equivalent to $1,051 per square foot per plot ratio.

    The bid was 8.3 per cent higher than the second-highest bid of $925.7 million from MCL Land.

    The head of research and consultancy at ZACD Group, Mr Nicholas Mak, was quoted as saying that "the top bid is very bullish as it is 20.6 per cent higher than the price of the land" acquired by MCC Land in June 2015 for a condo project. Called Queens Peak, it was launched last November at $1,580 psf.

    Mr Mak believes that prices will be pitched above $1,780 psf when the Stirling Road project is launched in the middle of next year.

    Other analysts even expect the developer to sell at a minimum $1,820 psf in order to make a profit.

    In April, 24 bids were submitted for a residential plot in Toh Tuck Road. Malaysian developer SP Setia International's bid was the highest at $265 million, or about $939 per square foot per plot ratio.

    This exceeded property consultants' expectations of the highest bid at no more than $750 per square foot per plot ratio.

    So, should tenders for land - for projects in the heartland that target mainly Singaporeans - be open to foreign companies which, with their deep pockets, could "distort" the market that serves a purely local need?

    It could be argued that people need not choose to buy if prices are high, but the property market is not exactly full of options for the consumer since supply is dependent on land sales, and residential land in Singapore should not be an asset for outsiders to make money from.

    Worse, a much higher selling price also creates a new benchmark and lifts the prices of resale of older properties in the area, further harming the aspirations of Singaporeans to move up the property ladder.

    It is fine if prices rise in an orderly manner supported and sustained by healthy factors such as the general well-being of the economy.

    But things could get out of hand and breed anger if prices climb steeply only because foreign developers with deeper pockets and a desire to break into the market have taken advantage of the country's free economy to wade in.

    Singapore must remain a free economy but there must be exclusions to the general rule, especially when Singaporeans' interests are at stake.

    Excluding foreign players from tenders of heartland sites does not mean that local players - for Singapore is not short of them - will have an easy ride and pay artificially depressed amounts in the absence of competition.

    The Government is not bound to accept any bid if it falls short of estimates based on prevailing trends and past transactions.

    Some may argue that it is not a given that the foreign developer must raise selling prices despite paying much more for the plot.

    But astute buyers will know that while prices can still be capped below, say, $1 million, something must be sacrificed - the size of the unit.

    Which means there is an impact on the quality of life for the buyer who is unlikely to get any apartment above 600 sq ft if the selling price is $1,650 psf.

    While no developer wants to pay too much for land, it is clear that the recent winning bids are arguably over the top.

    On average, investors have paid 29 per cent more for residential sites over comparable sites sold in the past five years, according to data from Cushman & Wakefield.

    Sales of new private homes in the first four months of this year reached 4,696 units - more than double the 2,220 in the same period last year, no doubt helped by launches in plum areas and tweaks of some cooling measures.

    The robust recovery can only encourage foreign investors to make bullish bids for land in Singapore.

    While developers may also be hurt if economic conditions deteriorate down the line and incur penalties if they cannot sell all their units within a stipulated timeframe, it must be remembered that those who bought the homes at high prices will be affected too.

    You could say it's "let the buyer beware" but, as I pointed out earlier, the property market is not a perfect one. If foreign companies want to bid aggressively for land to build shopping centres and office complexes, most Singaporeans would have no problems with that since they are making investments in the country.

    But a condo is a short-term project with only one aim for the developer - to sell the units for a profit and then move on to another project.

    My friends and I believe that some tinkering of the GLS rules may be in order before things get further out of hand.

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    Easier said than done...

    Any suggestions on how to manage it, other than the outright exclusion of Foreign Developers (which itself may contravene Free Trade Agreements)?
    Last edited by anythingwhatever; 18-06-17 at 23:23.

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    Normal, when the selling price of the new launch and resale start moving, a lot of this type of people will come out to KPKB.

    When property price fall, the same type of people will tell others to wait for it to fall more.

    Every property cycle will have this type of people who complain more think less.

    Most still don't understand the word call inflation, only know interest rate go up property price go down.

    Enough of Durian must think of another type of fruit.

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    Totally agree with Arcahon... Property is always cyclical... I have never come across a market that government can control... lets Use what sis happening now as an example... if the government were to release more GLS in 2nd half of this year... they will risk prices taking a big dip coz there is already clearly over supply of completed units... my Guess is just as Long prices keep pace with inflation then the government will not tinker much and keep an even keel... our prices have gone up 60% from 2009, and now it has dropped 13% from the high.. that means it has gone up about 39% since 2009. It's been 8 years since 2009... if inflation is just at 3% per year since 2009, inflation would have caught up hence we are like back to 2009 prices... and it's important to note that I am taking the bottom of 2009 prices... prices prior to the global financial crisis were much higher...

    Now you can see why the government is relaxing the measures step by step... my view is that the next measure to be remove will still be SSD... probably to 2 years, 8% for first year and 4% fr second year....

    If you ask any property or financial Analysts they will tell you that property prices will alwys outpace inflation by at least 1-2% per year as a premium has to be given to the risk of investing and the illiquid nature of property as compared to stocks or other liquid investments...

    So actually we are behind the curve in terms of property appreciation, hence the Developers know this and have bid prices that reflect possible selling prices in 2018 / 2019.

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    Singapore is seen as a safe haven in this region, esp in terms of property market. actually everyone is eyeing a piece of the market from the average joe to the large developers. they are just timing their purchases. and i think the recent land acquisitions by developers shows clearly that they are starting to place their bets. Hopefully govt doesn't ramp up their 2H GLS land sales. I don't think any more tweaks to the CMs will be forthcoming. I also personally think some of the CMs, although painful to investors, has actually made the market more resilient and reduced the number of potential bad debts / defaulters.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CCR View Post
    Now you can see why the government is relaxing the measures step by step... my view is that the next measure to be remove will still be SSD... probably to 2 years, 8% for first year and 4% fr second year....
    So long the ABSD and TDSR and LTV are in place, there would be any significant impact of changes of SSD. SSD is dot discourage short term speculators. With ABSD, it is difficult now.

    TDSR and LTV are structural changes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tonymontana View Post
    Singapore is seen as a safe haven in this region, esp in terms of property market. actually everyone is eyeing a piece of the market from the average joe to the large developers. they are just timing their purchases. and i think the recent land acquisitions by developers shows clearly that they are starting to place their bets. Hopefully govt doesn't ramp up their 2H GLS land sales. I don't think any more tweaks to the CMs will be forthcoming. I also personally think some of the CMs, although painful to investors, has actually made the market more resilient and reduced the number of potential bad debts / defaulters.
    I agree that in a free market play, there is little or no control on the developers coming in to buy and increase government coffers for more structural enhancements. People tend not to see the big picture when it hurts their pocket. I am one of them in the past and try to be less of it these days.

    When one developer out of 12 or 13 wins the bid, there are 11 or 12 of them that are not satisfied or fulfilled. This only brings about higher bids for other land, including en-bloc. Owners who wants to en-bloc should be trying again these 2 years to catch the wind.

    The only measure I know to 'curb' developers upon project completion is the fine for unsold units. If they price it too high and there is no demand, they better have deep pockets. I only see this as a proxy to protect local buyers. However, if the likes of Logan is to market the Stirling sites in HK, SZ or any other cities, I do not think it will be a big issue to see healthy sales. It will be buyers like this writer who will be the unhappiest as competition will only drive up prices ultimately.

    2 cents,
    PropVestor

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    I agree with the point of Developers needs not met... I Guess each developer will want at least 2 land banks... so we will need at least 24 sites in the next one year... anyone disagree ?

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    Govt tax and revenue must come from somewhere. Cancelling TV and radio license, supporting pioneer schemes, and other means to level up everyone from the base requires huge funds, especially since the base constitutes the huge majority of population.

    GLS and all the supporting land taxes (plus petrol tax, sins tax) etc are all aimed at making the top 20-30% income earners pay for the majority of these taxes. The only exception here may be the water tax, but do note that the affluent will also pay disproportionately more water tax due at least to swimming pools and other facilities.

    When developers bid at such high prices, they already paid for the land (coffers settled), but may or may not be able to sell at sky high prices. If they cannot, they have to either reduce cost or cut corners somewhere or pay for further land tax if buyers do not buy at those new higher prices. If the buyers do not buy, the developer pays. Either way, this cost will be factored into future sales price.

    What happens if the sales and prices go up in spite of these increased costs? Govt may include more taxes to stabilise the price. Again who pays ultimately? Either the developer or the new buyers, or a kind of cost-sharing between both.

    It's most likely that the developers will aim to market the new properties overseas to foreigners willing to pay for the ABSD. The locals who claim to be priced out in the upgrading process may have to be contented with upgrading to larger HDBs or ECs available.



    Quote Originally Posted by PropVestor View Post
    I agree that in a free market play, there is little or no control on the developers coming in to buy and increase government coffers for more structural enhancements. People tend not to see the big picture when it hurts their pocket. I am one of them in the past and try to be less of it these days.

    When one developer out of 12 or 13 wins the bid, there are 11 or 12 of them that are not satisfied or fulfilled. This only brings about higher bids for other land, including en-bloc. Owners who wants to en-bloc should be trying again these 2 years to catch the wind.

    The only measure I know to 'curb' developers upon project completion is the fine for unsold units. If they price it too high and there is no demand, they better have deep pockets. I only see this as a proxy to protect local buyers. However, if the likes of Logan is to market the Stirling sites in HK, SZ or any other cities, I do not think it will be a big issue to see healthy sales. It will be buyers like this writer who will be the unhappiest as competition will only drive up prices ultimately.

    2 cents,
    PropVestor
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Can fellow forum contributors please share why is there such inherent resistance to resale properties ? Any condo after 10 years will also be old right ? And we all know singaporean mentality and as such most mcst... after 3 to 5 years they will cut corners, reduce landscaping costs, slow down on replacement parts and slowly over time the facilities become run down and affect the value of the condos... they think the are saving money for the owners but by saving 100 bucks a month they are losing much more in the value of their properties

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    One set of reasons is some people like to use a property new. A related reason is if someone is gifting a property to a child, new might be one criteria.

    Same with new cars.

    Value wise old might indeed be more value based on brain analysis. But such purchases generally involve the hearts.

    Quote Originally Posted by CCR View Post
    Can fellow forum contributors please share why is there such inherent resistance to resale properties ? Any condo after 10 years will also be old right ? And we all know singaporean mentality and as such most mcst... after 3 to 5 years they will cut corners, reduce landscaping costs, slow down on replacement parts and slowly over time the facilities become run down and affect the value of the condos... they think the are saving money for the owners but by saving 100 bucks a month they are losing much more in the value of their properties
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CCR View Post
    Can fellow forum contributors please share why is there such inherent resistance to resale properties ? Any condo after 10 years will also be old right ? And we all know singaporean mentality and as such most mcst... after 3 to 5 years they will cut corners, reduce landscaping costs, slow down on replacement parts and slowly over time the facilities become run down and affect the value of the condos... they think the are saving money for the owners but by saving 100 bucks a month they are losing much more in the value of their properties
    I have a question too.
    There is a new project right beside my PC, for a very similar view and level, the new project selling 25% psf higher than to my PC's valuation price, they manage to find many buyers.
    But my old PC(10 years with better layout), I try to sell it by price tag to that new project, by 10% lower than the new project, finding it hard to sell.
    I find this strange too. Can anybody share view?

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    Quote Originally Posted by rsrunner123 View Post
    I have a question too.
    There is a new project right beside my PC, for a very similar view and level, the new project selling 25% psf higher than to my PC's valuation price, they manage to find many buyers.
    But my old PC(10 years with better layout), I try to sell it by price tag to that new project, by 10% lower than the new project, finding it hard to sell.
    I find this strange too. Can anybody share view?
    Those who buy for own stay or gifts to relatives may be pantang, or yim jim.

    Another possibility is some do not want to be involved in enbloc (moving) after they have gotten proceeds from their enbloc sales? Imagine moving out of an old development into an ageing development. I guess these people may think it better for face value moving into new properties?

    Looks like the current market is mainly people buying to stay?

    For buy to rent out, it might be to minimise immediate outlay having to do with things that are not covered by warranty? Waterproofing, aircon etc are some of the potential issues.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rsrunner123 View Post
    I have a question too.
    There is a new project right beside my PC, for a very similar view and level, the new project selling 25% psf higher than to my PC's valuation price, they manage to find many buyers.
    But my old PC(10 years with better layout), I try to sell it by price tag to that new project, by 10% lower than the new project, finding it hard to sell.
    I find this strange too. Can anybody share view?
    Just to add.
    My PC is even slightly bigger(5%) comparing with that new project beside, both same lease hold, same facilities, same size project.
    The PC valuation is 25% lower than the new project right beside (stone threw away only), this quite bothering me. It seem unfair just because this is a resale.

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    The truth are multiple reasons:

    1) Buyers are flippers! Buyers just want to buy new launch so that they can delay payment for a few years while waiting for prices to go up and then flip to next buyer!

    2) Buyers have no cash to renovate if buy resale (since renovation needs to come out with CASH, while brand new don't need renovation and while more expensive can borrow up to 80%).

    3) Resale properties 99-years lease are running down, so obviously must be discounted from new 99-years leasehold property prices by a straight-line depreciation (don't be fooled by SLA kelong 99-years leasehold depreciation valuation guide)!
    That is to say, if nearby 99-years leasehold newly TOP sells at $1M, your 99-years leasehold property that is say 10 years old (with same state PSF but even if much more usable area) can only sells at = S$1M x (1.0 - 0.1 - 0.1) = $800k! (10% discount for 10-years lease elapsed and another 10% discount is renovation costs).
    Similarly, if your 99-years leasehold is 30 years old, you can only sells at << S$1M x (100% - 30% - 10%) = less than $600k!
    If yours is a FH that is 30 years old, on the other hand, you can sells at = S$1M x (100% - 10%) = $900k! (because there is no lease run-down discount!)

    4) Above are just rough guide, because you still need to factor in the appeal of your estate and your unit (like whether well-maintained or not, estate facilities, estate size, estate layout, condo units layout, quality of built of the condos common facilities and your condo units, your condo unit level, facing, location etc).

    5) ....... (what else?)........

    Quote Originally Posted by rsrunner123 View Post
    I have a question too.
    There is a new project right beside my PC, for a very similar view and level, the new project selling 25% psf higher than to my PC's valuation price, they manage to find many buyers.
    But my old PC(10 years with better layout), I try to sell it by price tag to that new project, by 10% lower than the new project, finding it hard to sell.
    I find this strange too. Can anybody share view?
    Quote Originally Posted by rsrunner123 View Post
    Just to add.
    My PC is even slightly bigger(5%) comparing with that new project beside, both same lease hold, same facilities, same size project.
    The PC valuation is 25% lower than the new project right beside (stone threw away only), this quite bothering me. It seem unfair just because this is a resale.
    Last edited by teddybear; 20-06-17 at 00:41.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rsrunner123 View Post
    I have a question too.
    There is a new project right beside my PC, for a very similar view and level, the new project selling 25% psf higher than to my PC's valuation price, they manage to find many buyers.
    But my old PC(10 years with better layout), I try to sell it by price tag to that new project, by 10% lower than the new project, finding it hard to sell.
    I find this strange too. Can anybody share view?
    My guess, It's because your condo is 10 years into the 99 years lease. and today is still considered bear market.
    for value protection , freehold is better.
    it don't drop much in bear market even as it gets older.

    FH = building depreciate, but land price still goes up.


    my personal opinion, of course.

    you don't mind me saying, you should not sell now. it's not the time to sell.
    Last edited by tonymontana; 20-06-17 at 00:50.

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    Were you comparing PSF or absolute quantum?

    Quote Originally Posted by rsrunner123 View Post
    Just to add.
    My PC is even slightly bigger(5%) comparing with that new project beside, both same lease hold, same facilities, same size project.
    The PC valuation is 25% lower than the new project right beside (stone threw away only), this quite bothering me. It seem unfair just because this is a resale.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tonymontana View Post
    My guess, It's because your condo is 10 years into the 99 years lease. and today is still considered bear market.
    for value protection , freehold is better.
    it don't drop much in bear market even as it gets older.

    FH = building depreciate, but land price still goes up.


    my personal opinion, of course.

    you don't mind me saying, you should not sell now. it's not the time to sell.
    That new project had been selling since 2-3 years ago. But since 2-3 years ago, I observed that all the houses in same areas suffer the fate, valuation drop.

    How did the bank provide the same valuation bank (without a slight drop) loan amount to all the new project buyer? and seem like their price never drop since 2-3 years ago. How new project resist valuation drop(appear to the bank), where all houses in same areas suffer valuation drop?
    Last edited by rsrunner123; 20-06-17 at 01:13.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Were you comparing PSF or absolute quantum?
    New project unit smaller by 5%, my PC(10 years old) bigger by 5% in floor area size.
    New project 25% higher by PSF, then my PC(10 years old).
    View, level, facilities very similar.

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    The truth are multiple reasons:


    3) Resale properties 99-years lease are running down, so obviously must be discounted from new 99-years leasehold property prices by a straight-line depreciation (don't be fooled by SLA kelong 99-years leasehold depreciation valuation guide)!
    That is to say, if nearby 99-years leasehold newly TOP sells at $1M, your 99-years leasehold property that is say 10 years old (with same state PSF but even if much more usable area) can only sells at = S$1M x (1.0 - 0.1 - 0.1) = $800k! (10% discount for 10-years lease elapsed and another 10% discount is renovation costs).
    Similarly, if your 99-years leasehold is 30 years old, you can only sells at << S$1M x (100% - 30% - 10%) = less than $600k!
    If yours is a FH that is 30 years old, on the other hand, you can sells at = S$1M x (100% - 10%) = $900k! (because there is no lease run-down discount!)

    4) Above are just rough guide, because you still need to factor in the appeal of your estate and your unit (like whether well-maintained or not, estate facilities, estate size, estate layout, condo units layout, quality of built of the condos common facilities and your condo units, your condo unit level, facing, location etc).
    I hope to get a freehold too, but it is really hard to sell now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rsrunner123 View Post
    That new project had been selling since 2-3 years ago. But since 2-3 years ago, I observed that all the houses in same areas suffer the fate, valuation drop.

    How did the bank provide the same valuation bank (without a slight drop) loan amount to all the new project buyer? and seem like their price never drop since 2-3 years ago. How new project resist valuation drop(appear to the bank), where all houses in same areas suffer valuation drop?
    This part I am unsure. Anybody any idea how the bank can loan to the same amount(bank valuation) for the new project priced 2-3 years ago, appearing to resist valuation drop as when all houses next to it same area and when houses at nationwide houses all suffer valuation drop since 2-3 years ago due to down-cycle market. Did bank exclude the consideration of nationwide houses suffer valuation drop for new project? What and who are supporting the new home prices from not drop even a cent?

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    Generally i don't bother with bank valuation since it varies between banks and might not reflect recent transactions.

    I believe it's a simply supply and demand nature for your area, probably oversupply.
    Have seen some OCR like Pasir Ris with relatively many new condos suffered the same issue.

    Quote Originally Posted by rsrunner123 View Post
    This part I am unsure. Anybody any idea how the bank can loan to the same amount(bank valuation) for the new project priced 2-3 years ago, appearing to resist valuation drop as when all houses next to it same area and when houses at nationwide houses all suffer valuation drop since 2-3 years ago due to down-cycle market. Did bank exclude the consideration of nationwide houses suffer valuation drop for new project? What and who are supporting the new home prices from not drop even a cent?

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    Quote Originally Posted by rsrunner123 View Post
    This part I am unsure. Anybody any idea how the bank can loan to the same amount(bank valuation) for the new project priced 2-3 years ago, appearing to resist valuation drop as when all houses next to it same area and when houses at nationwide houses all suffer valuation drop since 2-3 years ago due to down-cycle market. Did bank exclude the consideration of nationwide houses suffer valuation drop for new project? What and who are supporting the new home prices from not drop even a cent?
    Bank valuation is based on past transactions as long as the developer don't drop prices valuation will hold.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 2824 View Post
    Bank valuation is based on past transactions as long as the developer don't drop prices valuation will hold.
    For those spotted subsale sold below new price. But the new project new price also didn't drop by a cent. I wonder why bank didn't consider such.

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