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Thread: My Boss wrote a book.

  1. #1
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    Default My Boss wrote a book.

    https://image.isu.pub/130611080518-c...humb_large.jpg


    As I was talking about looking to increase my competency in investing in residential real estate in Singapore, or at the very least, understand why are people doing it, in a post here.

    I'm basing my takeaway from a rental investment property POV.

    So here we go:

    Suggestions from the Author

    Start early with a longer time horizon (the same mantra given for shares)
    longer loan duration, which requires lower installments (but you pay more interest somewhat)
    Property prices increase with inflation
    Don't keep waiting to save enough for your dream home, can start with HDB and progress to private properties. Most people keep saving but fail to pull the trigger when the opportunity arises.
    Get your finances in order and know how much you can commit
    Buy a reasonably sized property within your affordability so that you do not slave your whole life to pay it just because you overextended yourself

    Some Rules to Follow
    Always Split property for own stay from your investment property
    Harder to liquidate own property to realize gains
    Lack of flexibility as you still need a place to stay
    Multiple small properties are better than one large one
    Target Newly completed/Resale Condominiums
    Avoid under construction as you have no idea what it actually looks like
    Do take note condition and lease balance for resale (minimum 70 years)
    Acquisition of property by gearing up with debt
    This is the confusing part as different editions gave different recommendations
    1st Ed: 33% upfront (30% for downpayment and 3% for fees), loan 70%
    3rd Ed: 23% upfront (20% for downpayment and 3% for fees), loan 80%
    4th Ed: 43% upfront (40% for downpayment and 3% for fees), loan 60%
    I guess it varies with interest rate environments
    Seems like the point is to ensure rental covers loan repayments
    Buy and Hold for the Long Term
    As you pay down the loan, interest cost goes down, while rental yield may follow inflation, which will generate positive cash flow
    Holding property allows the value of the property to appreciate with inflation
    However, do note that unlike a REIT, initial rental is usually unable to cover interest cost, let alone all the fees you pay (I wonder how it affects XIRR if property prices move in tandem with inflation)
    Buy at Fair Value
    Valuation methods
    Sales Comparison Approach (look at recent transactions and price per sq ft)
    Gross rental yields (aka, Income approach, we can invert it and get gross rental multiplier)
    If all fails, just ask the bank to value or get multiple valuers, should fall within 5% error
    Generally, try to get 0-10% lower than fair value
    Undervalued opportunities are usually presented only in foreclosures in property auctions during a bear market
    I was surprised that there was nothing about cap rates, valuation metrics (such as P/FFO, P/AFFO, CAPM, Discounted Cashflow)
    Do not buy to Flip as it is SPECULATIVE
    Do Ground Research on Property (Amenities, location, and surroundings)
    Location of Property
    Central Region Condominiums target market are wealthy foreigners
    Outside Central Regions, target markets are locals and PR
    Regions must have Strong Rental Demand
    Track loans tightly
    Refinance every 2-3 years
    Compare loan packages often
    Look for future catalysts from Concept/Master Plans (for capital gains and rental demand)
    Ensure property is well maintained and very habitable
    Aim for good quality tenants (generally, corporate, expats/FTs and families)
    A Security Deposit is a MUST
    Have tenant pay rent via GIRO (for efficiency and prevent late payments)
    Keep an eye on your property (ensure you don't get into trouble with authorities)

    Operating Costs to Note
    Property Tax (~10% of Annual value, which is annual rent)
    Income Tax (there are deductibles you can reduce tax here)
    Loan Repayment (Bank/CPF)
    Agent Management Fees (if they are assisting you with managing the property) / Agent commissions to secure tenant
    Property Maintenance Fees/Repairs
    Utility Bills
    Fire Insurance


    Transaction Fees
    Stamp Duties (3%)
    Conveyance Fees (~0.4%)
    Advisory Fees (?) (~1%)

    Exiting Your Property
    Ensure it looks good and in good condition for viewing (people feel better will be more willing to pay)
    Set realistic prices based on the valuation metrics described above, but dependent on bear or bull markets
    Sometimes the first offer is the best
    Ideally exclusive listing for agents


    Some Closing Thoughts

    Seems like there's a lot of costs (which I feel could be streamlined in the future with technology like the stock exchanges) and many things to manage manually. I wonder how are the comms for agents to assist with some management of the property and how many properties is enough to achieve an economy of scale.

    Do also note that the Singapore Government wants to control speculation in housing, especially HDB flats and perhaps condominiums, however, not at all but not the higher priced private ones though.
    A sample tenancy agreement would be nice, especially one that covers everything nicely.

    I feel Net Operating Income (Net Property Income) could be a better way to gauge which gives you cap rates.

    The book says that as long "Gross rental > mortgage interest rate = +ve cashflow", but I feel it would be more accurate to use Net Rental or Funds from Operations (or even Adjusted Funds from Operations), as did not factor other costs yet which could affect returns.

    That being said unlike a REIT, one will slowly pay down the loan with time. Assuming capital gain and rental grows in line with inflation, gross rental and equity will increase, interest cost should decrease or maintain the same. Not sure how it really reflects in real life for Return On Equity and Return On Asset. I wonder how would those numbers be like.

    Factoring depreciation is another question I have not found answered as well.


    For Homeowners, if you
    If you own a HDB flat and don't track your loan and forget about it - get HDB loan
    If you own a Condominium OR you track your loan - ALWAYS refinance every 2-3 years

    That's all for this long post. Hope you enjoyed it.

    EDIT (07Apr18): A discussion on Facebook, a user pointed out this after attending a talk by the Author:

    "If you can, buy an EC. This is because an EC is about 10-20% cheaper than a similar private condominium during a launch. After 10 years, it will be privatized and the selling price will be comparable to a similar private condominium."
    Sounds interesting

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