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Thread: housing bubble?

  1. #1
    col.kurtz
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    Default housing bubble?

    from expatsingapore.com

    please continue discussion here:

    cautious
    unregistered posted 23-01-2007 03:32 PM Edit/Delete Message many reports of housing bubble in countries around the globe and 2007 could be a bad year for some. singapore in this boat also? reading with interest the news in local papers and the spiralling $psf cost of some of these places. is there any value left? what represents value? <1k psf in 9,10,11 ??

    interested in your thoughts....

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    Built on Air
    unregistered posted 23-01-2007 04:56 PM Edit/Delete Message People here lack a sense or 'normality'. For me a housing price is nothing more then the price of the ground it is built on and the construction itself, in Singapore that should not be so difficult to calculate, but I doubt if anybody who buys one of those appartments ever did.

    All the rest of the money is, well lets call it 'air' and if somebody wants to pay for it, go ahead, don't be surprised that the air might blow away one time...

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    tsk tsk
    unregistered posted 23-01-2007 04:57 PM Edit/Delete Message my dear, you aren't the only one wondering.

    my question is, when will the bubble burst? i already have my money ready to acquire a very desirable property once the market crashes!

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    Heart of Darkness
    Member

    Posts: 3308
    From:Singapore
    Registered: Apr 2002
    posted 23-01-2007 05:06 PM Click Here to See the Profile for Heart of Darkness Click Here to Email Heart of Darkness Edit/Delete Message At the top end.. perhaps, but I think there is some life left for a while with upcoming high end launches in Orchard area in the wake of the recent enbloc sales and the contuing new downtown and IR hype. Fact remains that inspite of the recent rises, high-end Singapore property is a 'bargain' compared with HK and London (for instance)

    At the next level down, things have not moved all that much (even if last years % increase was 10% that hardly signals a bubble).


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    CA Expat
    Member

    Posts: 98
    From:Bay area, CA
    Registered: Sep 2006
    posted 23-01-2007 05:25 PM Click Here to See the Profile for CA Expat Edit/Delete Message In California people have been saying the bubble will burst for over 20 years. And it still keeps going strong. Just goes to show that no one ever REALLY knows. Some people get lucky and hit it at the right time, some don't.

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    tsk tsk
    unregistered posted 23-01-2007 05:26 PM Edit/Delete Message You can't compare SG to HK and London.

    Assuming that the health of property markets and their respective national/regional economies go hand in hand (which they always do):

    HK, as an economy and also as a market for property buyers, has the huge economic hinterland that is China, as back up.

    London, the UK and the EU.

    What does Singapore have? Singapore is culturally and geographically too far from China to have the Mainland Chinese economy and rich Chinese property buyers contribute meaningfully to the Singapore property market.

    Singapore is also culturally and geographically too far from the global money centres of London, NY, Dubai, Tokyo, HK, etc to expect any meaningful $$$ to be pumped into the Singapore economy and by proxy the Singapore property market.

    There is a very good reason why Singapore property is still valued lower than HK and London's. It is because Singapore has never been and will never ever have the economic clout that world class "money centres" like Zurich, London, NY, HK, Tokyo, and even Shanghai, have.

    Singapore will always remain a 2nd tier city in the global scheme of things, grateful to accept investment from the rich men of its Southeast Asian economically 3rd world neighbours.

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    minimee1
    unregistered posted 23-01-2007 05:30 PM Edit/Delete Message Currently a freehold private property in an upmarket condo in district 21 ( sunset way, clementi park ) costs $500 psf while an HDB in the same district costs about $400 psf so it was a no brainer which provides more value for money!

    As a rule of thumb, HDB prices will dictate the direction of private property prices and HDBs in desirable locations are very expensive.

    At its height before the bubble burst in 1996, prices in district 9,19 and 11 were nowhere near the new benchmarks set recently by The Pier and Sentosa Cove so to the poster who is waiting for the market to crash, you may have to wait a while yet!

    Although the govt has introduced anti speculation measures such as the upfront payment of stamp and legal fees to disencourage the casino mentality of the 1990s many of today's buyers are foreigners (Indians, Chinese and Indonesians ) who are parking their money in a safe place here.

    Personally I feel that we are seeing the beginning of an upward trend in prices across the board but especially in prime locations. And no, I don't think we will witness the crash of 1996 either as most these foreign buyers can afford to hold.

    JUst my two cents worth

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    Bubblybabe
    unregistered posted 23-01-2007 06:35 PM Edit/Delete Message 'They' have been saying that the London property market bubble is going to burst - for YEARS! I feel sorry for first time buyers as they are totally priced out the market. Houses there arent worth the land they are built on.

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    Heart of Darkness
    Member

    Posts: 3308
    From:Singapore
    Registered: Apr 2002
    posted 23-01-2007 08:47 PM Click Here to See the Profile for Heart of Darkness Click Here to Email Heart of Darkness Edit/Delete Message While they still perceive value here, foreign investors will still keep buying here... I have spoken to foreigners buying here and they are the ones who are saying Singapore is cheap compared with HK etc (such people are in a very different financial league from me)

    Personally I think the market has a few more years to go (until the IRs, new downtown etc are built) with the middle sector playing a bit of catch up with the top end.

    Maybe I am wrong and maybe I am right. In the meantime I have made something like 125% return on investment in the last two years (mostly in the last year admittedly) whereas I could have put the money in a nice safe SGD depo account and made 5%

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    To HoD
    unregistered posted 23-01-2007 10:29 PM Edit/Delete Message You haven't made it until you sell it mate! Remember that. Paper gains are just that.

    But I agree that I would hold on, good bet.

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    minnime1
    unregistered posted 23-01-2007 10:35 PM Edit/Delete Message HOD

    Please explain what you mean by the middle market catching up with the top end....as someone who is definitely not in the same league as your rich foreign friends I would be very interested to hear what you have to say about the middle market. Congratulations Heart of Darkness you did well, do share.

    Best
    minnime (forgot my password but i think we have exchanged frivolous posts in the past)

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    Father of 2
    unregistered posted 24-01-2007 09:19 AM Edit/Delete Message Property is just another market subject to the laws that dictate its operation. The Singapore market is now interesting, is it not? Selling prices and rents have jumped on the back of positive economic growth numbers, higher levels of confidence in business outlook, the expected impact of the IR and the fact that 'property prices have been so low for so long it's about time they rose again!'
    The bulls say that Singapore is still cheap internationally and that prices are still not back up to peak levels in the 90s.
    The bears wonder whether the higher market can be sustained. And I think with good reason. If foreigners are propping up the market, they are buying property as an investment. Looking around, how many new apartments are coming onto the market in the next few years? There was already a huge amount of empty apartments that were not rented out.
    So, the million dollar questions should be: 1) 'will there be enough people working in Singapore to take up the apartment inventory over the next few years; and 2) even if there are, will these workers be able to afford the high rent expectations required by the investors who paid top dollar for their investment property?
    My personal case: in 2008 my lease is up and I have to renogiate my rent. I face an increase in rent anywhere from 15-30% (based on neighbors who are renewing now). I can't afford this. I doubt my company will raise my salary. To accept this rental increase means a downgrade of some description (ie, get a smaller apartment, further out of town, loss of facilities) or save zero money. So, it looks like I'll be 'forced' home. How many others are in the same position? And if there are others, that starts to remove potential tenants. Lots of empty apartments again ... rents start to fall ... prices start to fall .. ?

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    trustme
    unregistered posted 24-01-2007 09:36 AM Edit/Delete Message same boat..my lease comes up in March. Landlord asking 50% increase. There are three empty apartment in building and they just started building across the street..cya

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    Heart of Darkness
    Member

    Posts: 3308
    From:Singapore
    Registered: Apr 2002
    posted 24-01-2007 09:40 AM Click Here to See the Profile for Heart of Darkness Click Here to Email Heart of Darkness Edit/Delete Message Totally agree. There is no certaintly until I sell. As ever is all about risk and return. I could well have made large gains, and if I had put the cash on depositm I KNOW I would have made small gains. Certaintly costs money

    Property prices rose by 10% overall last year. Apparently high end property values rose by 25-30%. Without knowing the details it is hard to know how much of the overall 10% rise was driven by the larger rises at the high end.

    Govt has just announced that as of this month they will publish price more detailed property statistics going forward. This should make it easier to get a better idea of which parts of the market are moving and by how much.

    There is a great deal of optimism at the moment (misplaced?) and that will drive people to take risks (or underprice the risks) thus causing prices to rise

    Assuming now large external factors (SARS, Bird Flu etc etc) I am pretty comfortable that there will be moderate price rises this year. A 10% rise with 5x leverage is a 50% return (less funding etc costs) Anything much more than that, and the worry becomes whether the Govt will step in to curb what is sees as excessive price rises. It's a pretty delicate balance

    The much harder question is knowing when to cash out. Get too greedy and I run the risk of losing what I have (on paper) gained. Be too risk averse and I miss out on a lot of potential gain

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    Heart of Darkness
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    From:Singapore
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    posted 24-01-2007 09:45 AM Click Here to See the Profile for Heart of Darkness Click Here to Email Heart of Darkness Edit/Delete Message As for the top end rental market. Prev poster is right I feel. I just can't see that there will be that many people in 2 - 3 years time who will be willing to pay $10k+ pcm for a 1000sq ft flat

    All the current buying at $2500+ psf and then hoping to sell on before completion for profit is all well and good, but at some point someone is actually going to own these flats.. Fine of course for the rich cash buyers, but more of a problem for those with mortgages to pay

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    The Market
    unregistered posted 24-01-2007 10:45 AM Edit/Delete Message In nearly all cases, in all countries, the start of a property market upturn is signalled by the high end of the market starting to increase in value. Once the high end levels, traditionally, the segments below start to play catchup. This goes on until the low end of the market back to being proportionally in line with the highend before the upturn.

    We've seen Singapore's high end climb. It will either deflate and we'll all be happy knowing prices won't move (contrary to what they should do), or we'll see the normal property market run it's due course.

    I've bet on the latter.

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    Father of 2
    unregistered posted 24-01-2007 11:11 AM Edit/Delete Message I understand what The Market is theorising, however isn't Singapore's property market artificial and manipulated by developers and government policy? What do you mean by 'the rest of the market'? Condos in 9,10,11? How much further can they climb? How many foreigners can afford rents of $5K+ (and if the market continues momentum up to the $8-10K range)? A lot of people are betting on upside. I fear it will be short-lived, for the simple reason there won't be enough foreigners in the market able and willing to support the level of prices being demanded. Of course, if economic gains transfer to large salary increases I could be proved wrong. But the last time I checked, corporates were still engaged in aggressive cost management.

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    The Market
    unregistered posted 24-01-2007 11:17 AM Edit/Delete Message You are confusing rental prices with housing market prices. property investors in Singapore invest for captial gains. The average rental return in Singapore is pretty low.

    Districts 9,10,11 would be at the higher end of the market. If these sale prices start rising then you're seeing the continuation of the cycle.

    Yes, to a large extent Singapore's property market is manipulated by the government. But what makes you think the government doesn't want to see an increase in property values ?

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    Father of 2
    unregistered posted 24-01-2007 11:26 AM Edit/Delete Message If you see capital appreciation through buying to sell then go ahead. Eventually though, the investor has to earn a yield from rental, which is based on his purchase price. If the rental market can't keep pace with capital values, what happens?

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    The Market
    unregistered posted 24-01-2007 11:35 AM Edit/Delete Message The Yields in Singapore have always been lower than many other markets. It's a fact of life and the investors here live with it.

    When rental yields don't match the prices, so start seeing investors drop out of the market which lowers the rental pool. This in effect creates rental demand which will increase rental prices, exactly what we've been seeing over the last year and a bit. Rents are now rising so people will start to consider buying because it makes more sense. That will then start the property prices swinging upwards. The start of any property uptick is the exclusive end taking off first, which is what we've seen in the last 6 months.

    It is my belief that we're seeing a typical property cycle kicking off again. I can see appreciation for at least 2 years and then maybe a bit more depending on the effect the casinos have in Singapore. It's what I have bet one.

    But whatever you do, don't make any financial decision based on what you read from an anonymous poster on an internet forum. Do your own D&D and make your bets accordingly.

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    Heart of Darkness
    Member

    Posts: 3308
    From:Singapore
    Registered: Apr 2002
    posted 24-01-2007 11:37 AM Click Here to See the Profile for Heart of Darkness Click Here to Email Heart of Darkness Edit/Delete Message Depends how much cash the investor puts in and what his funding costs are and how much cashflow he is prepare to allocate to get the hoped for capital gain

    If you are getting a good annual return on investment and your funding cost exceeds the rental yield then (assuming you could afford it) would you be happy to make up the cashflow shortfall? Perhaps.. perhaps not

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    Heart of Darkness
    Member

    Posts: 3308
    From:Singapore
    Registered: Apr 2002
    posted 24-01-2007 11:42 AM Click Here to See the Profile for Heart of Darkness Click Here to Email Heart of Darkness Edit/Delete Message To annedotally support what "The Market" says about renters dropping out.

    In the last year or so a large number of expat friends have bought property here.

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    Father of 2
    unregistered posted 24-01-2007 11:52 AM Edit/Delete Message Most working expats are here to make money along with the experience. Singapore is becoming expensive relative to what companies are offering in compensation. Most corporates now offer local terms versus the allowances package in the 1980s and 1990s. Without rental allowances, if rents continue to move upwards more expats will repatriate, and the rental pool you depend on for returns will shrink.
    I have two associates in Europe who have decided to stay where they are instead of moving Singapore because, after crunching the numbers (rent is becoming a much larger % of living expense) it doesn't make financial sense for them to come here.

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    The Market
    unregistered posted 24-01-2007 11:59 AM Edit/Delete Message You are focusing on a very small segment of the market. Singapore's market is not driven by foreign expats on housing allowances looking for a large 4bed apartment with all the facilities.

    A three bedroom, 2 storey terrace house on the east coast can be rented, now, for about 2.5 to 3 k depending on the condition. Expats on allowances seem to be blind to this market segment but you'll find that's it a good indicator for the Singapore middle class.

    I am constantly amazed that such a small segment of the population (Expats working for MNCs) are given so much credit for dictating the Singapore property market as a whole.

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    Father of 2
    unregistered posted 24-01-2007 12:08 PM Edit/Delete Message But how many expats here on 2-3 year contracts will choose to buy because rents are expensive? For the small number of long-term expats maybe, but the rental market we're discussing is the one that has to take up the multiple thousands of new apartment units coming onto the market.

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    The Market
    unregistered posted 24-01-2007 12:12 PM Edit/Delete Message I'm not discussing any particular rental market. I'm talking about the Singapore property market and reasons why I think the whole singapore market has started the upward trend of it's cycle.

    2-3 year expats have little bearing on my analysis.

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    Father of 2
    unregistered posted 24-01-2007 12:15 PM Edit/Delete Message How many Singaporeans rent? I was always under the impression home-ownership was prioritised here, and that rented accom was mostly the second property bought by S'poreans and wealthy Indos to rent out to expats?
    I guess we'll see a lot more expats moving out to the east cost in the near future to rent out the places going for 2.5-3K. Which then leaves the $5-10K a month condos in 8,9,10,11 empty?

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    The Market
    unregistered posted 24-01-2007 12:24 PM Edit/Delete Message Again you are fixated on rental. The property market is not just driven by renters, especially Singapore where yields are not that low. As I said earlier, CG is the main goal for most property investors in Singapore.

    Look at the Singapore market as a whole. Concentrating your arguments and thoughts in a single small segment will limit your findings.

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    minneime1
    unregistered posted 24-01-2007 12:36 PM Edit/Delete Message The analysis on the middle segment by the poster The Market is spot on - I recently bought an apartment because the rental increase of 40% hurt too much and it made sense for me to buy.

    When rents were low, the push factor was minimal - I was living in a new apt in sixth ave for less than $2000 which is 2% rental yield for my landlord. I bet it did not even cover her mortgage let alone maintainence fees and property taxes.

    Of course my experience is anecdotal but my agent tells me he does not have enough time in the day to cope with the demand for middle market apts sparked off by cases like mine.

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    property bull
    unregistered posted 24-01-2007 04:37 PM Edit/Delete Message Many of the newer developments in Districts 9 - 11 are getting about 5% rental yield based on the latest rents and condo prices. Assuming rents remain status quo which I believe is still affordable to most expats (I do not see an exodus of expats due to present rents), property prices can easily move up another 50 - 60% before the yields get reduced to around 3% and which may make investments in property less attractive.

    Those who are in for capital appreciation, buying a property (9,10,11)now might still be a good decision.

    Personally, I think it is more less smooth sailing for property prices for at least the next 2 -3years before the new developments on en-bloc sites start flooding the market .

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    balestier boy
    unregistered posted 24-01-2007 07:03 PM Edit/Delete Message There is a sh!tload of new condos launching for low to mid $800s psf in the Balestier area, which is technically still District 11 but at the border of District 12. Proximity to the city is great and most of the properties here are undervalued, as there is huge potential in Balestier yet to be unlocked. As soon as the Singapore Urban Redevelopent authorities decide to revamp the entire area, condos here will see massive capital appreciation.

    Having gone to some of these and having looked at the prices, I personally feel that the prices here in this micro-location are still value for money compared to other locations in D11, which mostly cost over $1,000psf, Newton area even hitting highs of $1,400 psf.

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    dondon
    unregistered posted 24-01-2007 08:07 PM Edit/Delete Message "What does Singapore have? Singapore is culturally and geographically too far from China to have the Mainland Chinese economy and rich Chinese property buyers contribute meaningfully to the Singapore property market."

    --- you do realise the rich Indonesians are very rich and they'd rather put their money in stable Singapore than back home?


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    tsk tsk
    unregistered posted 24-01-2007 08:21 PM Edit/Delete Message Exactly my point.

    Singapore has always been, and will always be, a place for 3rd world rich men like filthy rich Indonesians to park their money. Who have very shady backgrounds, most of them.

    Not very respectable is it.

    Singapore will never be a bona fide 1st tier global city like HK and London, so why compare?

    HK has rich Chinese coming from the mainland to boost their property industry. London has rich Europeans and Middle Easterners. Now, the investments in these two cities are huge in scale.

    Singapore has.... very rich Indonesians. Kuching Kurak businessmen who are big only in the region and virtually unheard of outside of 3rd world SE Asia.

    Put it however you want, the rich Indonesians buying into Singapore aren't even anywhere near the global rich club that buyers in HK and London belong to.

    [This message has been edited by BoardManager (edited 24-01-2007).]

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    tsk tsk
    unregistered posted 24-01-2007 08:30 PM Edit/Delete Message Therefore Singapore property will always lag behind HK and London's. Singapore undervalued? Haha. Singapore is FULLY VALUED, IMO. Any more than this would be over valued. There is very little upside to Singapore as an economy and market, very little potential. If I had to put my money somewhere, HK, London, Tokyo would be the places to be.

    There is no point in comparing apples (HK, London, Tokyo, NY, Paris) and oranges (Singapore, Bangkok, Seoul, Vancouver, Sao Paolo) but if I had to compare, then HK is Orchard while Singapore is Tanjong Rhu. Expensive, but not quite there yet. A wannabe, in other words.

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    cautious
    unregistered posted 24-01-2007 08:46 PM Edit/Delete Message i'm in the boat of having just returned to singapore from japan and got a real shock with rental increases. in late 2002 i moved here and had a great new place at newton for 2k. those days have clearly gone... most apartments i've been to look at are asking 3k min (old/tatty....) and week on week the landlords are asking a little more. i'm on a local package and the more i went through the numbers the buying proposition started to become more interesting (mortgage funding seems quite cheap). like other posters i have a number of expat friends who have decided to buy and many more who are still renting but nervously approaching their landlords to see what increase they're in line for - all of this adds to the anxiety that there is a need to do something with urgency. i've looked around 9,10,11 to buy and have targeted <1000 psf as my threshold.

    mooooo
    unregistered posted 24-01-2007 10:29 PM Edit/Delete Message Just wondering, for those who have opted to renew their lease recently, is your preference for a shorter lease (such as 1 year) or a longer lease (such as 2 years). And how much of this preference is based on a conscious need to lock in the new rental to a longer period.

    During these uncertain times, I would like to know where the herd instinct is pointing to.

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    Cheers
    Member

    Posts: 49
    From:AllAroundAsiaPac
    Registered: May 2004
    posted 25-01-2007 01:15 AM Click Here to See the Profile for Cheers Click Here to Email Cheers Edit/Delete Message Wow this is one of the few threads with intelligent educated opinions and mature healthy debate!

    I am with the camp believing market in Singapore will go up further. Outside of CBD Singapore properties are undervalued, and there is room for growth in the middle market for the next few years. Asian economic as a whole, is growing fast. Properties in this region will do well, including China, HK, Tokyo, Seoul, Singapore and other South East countries like Vietnam.

    I don’t see Expats clearing out either – on the contrary quite a few of us are taking local package to stay. Life in Singapore is relatively affordable, considering tax rate and cost of living. And yes many of us are here for the experience.

    To Tsk Tsk,
    I can’t see why would rich Chinese / Europeans’ money would be better or respectable than rich buyers from Indonesia / Kuching. Even if they are, why does the buyers’ background, shady or respectable, be a factor?

    Maybe London or HK property prices would indeed go up and up with the support of super rich. But that certainly do not hurt the market in Singapore.

    And what make you think rich Chinese would put their money in HK vs Shanghai or all the up and coming Tier 2 cities in China like Dalian, Xiaman or Chengdu with the much greater potential? And the super rich Chinese will certainly have properties in Europe, North America and other parts of the world.

    By the way, sidetracked from the topic of discussion, since you are obviously not here to enjoy the life in Singapore, why are you here in a lowly 2nd tier city?

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    minnime1
    unregistered posted 25-01-2007 01:38 AM Edit/Delete Message To Balestier Boy

    I agree that Balestier is undervalued - but for a good reason- have you seen the neighbourhood recently? The place is full of gangsters and mainland Chinese "working girls" For someone on a restricted budget the area provides tremendous value for money but since it is a redlight district I doubt that the value of property in that area will increase in tandem with the "professional and desirable" districts of 9, 10, 11 and 21.

    Having said that who knows what will happen-but I personally believe the value will lag behind people who want to live in areas free of crime and trouble associated with areas like Balestier and Geylang.

    Again, my two cents worth

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    minnime1
    unregistered posted 25-01-2007 11:11 AM Edit/Delete Message To Balestier Boy

    I reread my post about Balestier again and realized that perhaps it was too unkind and inaccurate to say the area is a redlight district. The place is definitely dodgy but not infested with the sort of people who frequent the attractions of geylang.

    I viewed quite a few condos there as like you I think it has potential for capital appreciation but although Balestier is close to newton and the city the place suffers from an image problem. Most of the residents who live there are the sort of people you do not want as neighbours - tons of Indonesian students, working girls and big noisy Chinese families you don't want to mess around with or complain to about their 3am karoake or mahjong playing sessions.

    But I think the chicken rice places there rock.

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    cautious
    unregistered posted 25-01-2007 11:21 AM Edit/Delete Message to minnime 1...

    have to agree with you about Balestier. good value at places like scenic heights etc but finishing is not that great, and i would also question the quality of neighbours... i always get a little nervous when i see a unit next to the one i'm viewing and there is a giant shoe rack with 40 pairs of shoes....

    i don't fully believe the potential for Balestier to go up in value significantly... whilst there is plenty of enbloc in 9,10,11 the money will still go there. unlike london and other cities where the money starts to seep out of the prime districts they keep knocking places down here which maintains a high level of new units coming on the market in 9,10,11.

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    Note To Cautious
    unregistered posted 25-01-2007 12:20 PM Edit/Delete Message We are a family of three from the UK and our shoe rack, at any given time, contains at least 20 pairs of shoes... However we live in a $15k per month bungalow.

    You need a different gauge.

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    Balestier
    unregistered posted 25-01-2007 01:10 PM Edit/Delete Message To Balestier Boy

    Prices have moved up so fast that I do not think Balestier is undervalued any longer. A new launch The Axis is going for 850 - 900psf and UOL is about to launch the Pavilion 11 for about 1000psf. Both condos are only mins walk to Balestier Rd. 2 mths ago I bought a unit at Newton Suites (sub-sale ) at Newton Rd for about 1040 psf. So the prices of new launches off Balestier Rd are already matching those of Novena/Newton (those located next to Thomson Rd/Newton vicinity. A sub sale unit at the newly completed Strata (opposite United Square) is still going for 1000psf. So if you are an investor which one will you buy?

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    skyrocketing
    unregistered posted 25-01-2007 05:17 PM Edit/Delete Message You bought Newton Suites 2 months ago? Congratulations!

    Its recently transacted prices last month were about $1,150 psf. I know, cos I have also been looking in that project. I can even name you the units which were transacted and their prices. Courtesy of my agent.

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    bubble economy
    unregistered posted 25-01-2007 05:26 PM Edit/Delete Message When the time for TOP (completion) nears, and the speculators can't sell and can't pay up, they will surely dump their properties to cut loss.

    That is when the bubble will burst. Be forewarned!

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    sand problem
    unregistered posted 25-01-2007 05:41 PM Edit/Delete Message Indonesia bans sand exports at the exact time that Singapore is experiencing a property and construction boom. Singapore is the main importer of Indonesian sand.

    I think the issue here is pricing. If you can sell your property at $3,000 psf in your country, why can't you share some of that prosperity with your neighbors? Both parties must have stalemated in price talks, and that's why the ban. Pay more for sand, and the sand ban will be lifted cos there is a price for everything.

    All this will cause prices of property to go up due to higher construction and raw material costs.

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    Newton Suites
    unregistered posted 25-01-2007 05:51 PM Edit/Delete Message To Skyrocketing

    The latest transaction is at $1192psf for a 2 bedroom unit. Must be for a high flr. Mine is also a 2bedroom - meant for investment and will be rented out. Newton Suites should fetch a very good rental yield. Go for it if you can get a good price.

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    skyrocketing
    unregistered posted 25-01-2007 06:19 PM Edit/Delete Message I was looking at the 3 bedrooms. I think the 2 bedrooms have higher $psf prices.

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    cautious
    unregistered posted 25-01-2007 06:33 PM Edit/Delete Message to Note to Cautious

    clearly you're not looking at buying since you're gloating about your 15k a month bungalow. woopee doo....

    if you've got nothing interesting or useful to add to what was a good discussion STFU and go somewhere else to gloat.

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    cautious
    unregistered posted 25-01-2007 06:45 PM Edit/Delete Message i've narrowed my choice down to a 3 bedder in novena area 880psf and a 3 bedder in dhoby ghaut area for 720psf. hopefully pull the trigger on the weekend after a final look. my focus has been on psf value and i believe both represent fair value for money for a 2 year old development.

    has anyone here considered the tiong bahru area? a number of developments up and coming around there....

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    wellwell
    unregistered posted 25-01-2007 06:52 PM Edit/Delete Message Novena is District 11, Dhoby Ghaut is District 9, both prime districts, admittedly not as "prime" as the more desirable locations within their own respective districts (Newton in D11 and Paterson in D9 come to mind). But still, they are considered "prime".

    Tiong Bahru is an up and coming area but prices will always be pegged to HDB upgrader levels, as there are large HDB estates in Queenstown, Redhill, Bukit Ho Swee, and Tiong Bahru itself.

    Oh yeah, one more reason to look at Novena and Dhoby Ghaut before you consider Tiong Bahru: in Novena and Dhby Ghaut you can hardly see any HDB flats on the horizon.

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    good point!
    unregistered posted 25-01-2007 07:00 PM Edit/Delete Message "Tiong Bahru is an up and coming area but prices will always be pegged to HDB upgrader levels, as there are large HDB estates in Queenstown, Redhill, Bukit Ho Swee, and Tiong Bahru itself."

    That's a good point. However, please note that Queenstown, Redhill, etc have some of the highest HDB prices in the country. So if a Tiong Bahru condo price is pegged to HDB upgrader levels, you'd have to admit that those are in the upper band of HDB upgraders (ie:- richer HDB dwellers). Definitely not in the same price/affordability bracket as HDB upgrader condos such as those in Jurong, Bedok or Sengkang.

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    To tsk tsk
    unregistered posted 25-01-2007 07:15 PM Edit/Delete Message It's Kuching Kurap (not kurak)-malay for half-baked or incompetent. Nothing to do with the place Kuching, Cheers (or maybe it does)
    Agree that Balestier is not a hi-so area. Just like saying you live in East Coast when you actually live in Joo Chiat. LOL

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    enbloc mad
    unregistered posted 26-01-2007 05:44 AM Edit/Delete Message so is now a good time to go enbloc for our development in district 10? There's about 6 ongoing en-blocs within a 500m area.. madness but everyone's jumping on the bandwagon.

    wondering if any experts here have thoughts on whether we should hold and wait, or join the crowd...?

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    To Enbloc Mad
    unregistered posted 26-01-2007 09:07 AM Edit/Delete Message To Enbloc Mad

    You can go for an en-bloc now provided you buy a replacement unit immediately the moment a developer inks the deal and not when you receive the money a few months later by which time you will find yourself priced out of the market

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    Fools rush in ...
    unregistered posted 26-01-2007 10:56 AM Edit/Delete Message Just out of interest I called several agents from the paper this morning. The owner(s) within a particular apt block in River Valley are looking for $1.7m today, for the same apt type I looked at 3 MONTHS AGO when they wanted $1.2m! It's laughable, yet no doubt there will be some fool prepared to pay half a million extra for the same small space. I say keep your cash in the bank and wait for the next property crash which is bound to happen: bird flu, SARS, flooding, sand problems, failure of the IRs, closure of Crazy Horse ... it's only a matter of time ...

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    The Market
    unregistered posted 26-01-2007 11:03 AM Edit/Delete Message There will always be a cycle. The prices start to raise then they explode upwards then a crash. But you'll find the bottom of the crash is still higher than the initial starting price of the cycle.

    If you're never going to buy because "one day prices will crash", then, yeah, you're never going to buy. I still see a year of 'safe' growth left in the market. Anyone buying 12 months out from now may lose money if the reverse is too large.

    I made the bet last year and I'm pretty happy with the results so far. I bet if you had bought that apartment for 1.2m and you saw them now listed at 1.7, you'd be a happy camper instead of the bitter doomsayer that you are now.

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    Fools rush in ...
    unregistered posted 26-01-2007 11:12 AM Edit/Delete Message Yeah I'm a happy camper cos I did buy 1.7 yrs ago, although it's only a paper gain as I have to live in it. I see the current market as fragile due to economic threats and acts of God, and due to greed and foolishness.

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    The Market
    unregistered posted 26-01-2007 11:27 AM Edit/Delete Message How can you ever invest if you start taking "Acts of God" into the risk analysis ? What market, other than cash in a bank struggling to keep up with inflation, will not tank due to "Acts of God" ?

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    Fools rush in ..
    unregistered posted 26-01-2007 12:02 PM Edit/Delete Message Are you a property agent intent on talking up the market? Or just a wise-ass? OK I'll explain. Act of God was one part of a list of events that could impact the market. Nevertheless, any environment has specific elements that can make it more or less susceptible to nature. Singapore is lucky in some respects of this, but also at risk with others. SARS, bird flu, the necesity to import everything, are examples of issues that could impact Singapore again.

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    Heart of Darkness
    Member

    Posts: 3308
    From:Singapore
    Registered: Apr 2002
    posted 26-01-2007 12:37 PM Click Here to See the Profile for Heart of Darkness Click Here to Email Heart of Darkness Edit/Delete Message So when is any market not fragile due the threat of 'Acts of God'

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    Tsk tsk
    unregistered posted 26-01-2007 12:38 PM Edit/Delete Message Exactly. That's why Singapore will never be a HK or a London and Singapore's property prices will lag behind in corresponding fashion.

    Singapore has no "big brother" to lean on. Every SE Asian country has been taking a bite out of Singapore - this has always happened and will always happen.

    Singapore is like the brainy bespectacled scrawny nerd in the schoolyard full of big brawny bullies. He needs a benevolent big bully to back him up against the rest and right now he has none. Not even China.

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    The Market
    unregistered posted 26-01-2007 12:49 PM Edit/Delete Message tsk tsk. Why the fixation on comparing Hong Kong to Singapore ? Each market is slightly different in as many ways as they are related. Will Singapore ever reach Hong Kong's prices ? I doubt it. Will the Singapore market move in relative synch with the Hong Kong market, most likely if the historical trends are an indicator for the future..

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    Uncle Sugar
    unregistered posted 26-01-2007 12:50 PM Edit/Delete Message The frequent appearance of US Aircraft Carrier Battle Groups here seems to indicate otherwise...

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    .
    unregistered posted 26-01-2007 12:51 PM Edit/Delete Message Having consulted my soothsayer, who said that there will be an Act of God sometime next week, or then again, perhaps not. What will happen if this Act of God is in HK and not Singapore. I definitely forsee property prices rising substantially next week in Singapore. Or should I check with my soothsayer again.

    There is also a counter-cyclical argument for property prices in Singapore, in that arket shocks elsewhere around the region will bring an influx of funds to the "safe haven" of Singapore.

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    Marine Expert
    unregistered posted 26-01-2007 12:53 PM Edit/Delete Message Oh those ships are here only for refuelling and picking up supplies.. and of course, for the sailors to catch some local action... LOL

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    .
    unregistered posted 26-01-2007 12:53 PM Edit/Delete Message I'm also interested in how an Act of HoD might affect the property market in Singapore

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    Heart of Darkness
    Member

    Posts: 3308
    From:Singapore
    Registered: Apr 2002
    posted 26-01-2007 01:03 PM Click Here to See the Profile for Heart of Darkness Click Here to Email Heart of Darkness Edit/Delete Message I buy .. market goes up. I sell ..market goes down. Oh the power

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    .
    unregistered posted 26-01-2007 01:09 PM Edit/Delete Message Chance would be a fine thing

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    the next decade
    unregistered posted 26-01-2007 06:19 PM Edit/Delete Message The Singapore government wants the resident population to grow to 6 million within a decade (ballpark figure). That translates to 200,000 every year for the next 10 years. If at current prices, foreigners are still buying, it's hard to see any property bubble when the demand is going to continue for next 10 years.

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    Kurious
    unregistered posted 26-01-2007 06:25 PM Edit/Delete Message property here has been as flat as a tack for years. it spiked after the asian crisis but came back down to the same level (sars i think).

    i am thinking about buying and my gut tells me that the property market has legs for another year to 18 months. as a p.r. my timeframe has to be min 3 years.

    but i would like to seriously ask: what has suddenly changed in singapore so dramatically after the extended flat period?? china growth?? asian growth?? sustained low interest rates? confidence? the IR's? more expats coming in? all of the above?

    the private property market is relatively small here. and then D1-8, D9-10 and now D11-12 (where all the action is) is a small niche within a small niche. is this distorting things? is the speculation distorting things? or will the speculation self-perpetuate??

    another factor: the en-bloc square footage already done will come online (in multiplied form) within 2 years. there are about another 25-30 under negotiation and certainly more where negotiation will begin. where will the demand for this property come from?

    i don't think anything will stop this momentum within the next year .. but thereafter i wouldn't bet a lot of money on.

    i could afford 2.5m at the moment and i look every day and have seen many in the past months. but places selling for 2.5m this week were selling for 1.5m 6-9 months ago.

    sure i wish i had bought last year but i still could not have realised a gain for another 2 and a half years.

    and much can happen in that time period - as has happened before.

    just questions.

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    Kurious
    unregistered posted 26-01-2007 06:55 PM Edit/Delete Message more questions:

    'the next decade': the govt. wants population to grow by 200,000 pa for the next 10 years. ok, but where do they expect or want this growth to come from? and realistically where will it come from?

    the vast majority will surely not be from first class cities .. will it? this would imply that most will be from the se asian region. assuming this (yes, it's an assumption), is a prolonged property boom in the government's interests?

    if it is not, what could or would the government do to alleviate the situation? can they actually control this beast?

    alternatively, maybe the govt want the population growth to be from first class cities. but if this is the case, would this not exacerbate the housing situation and preclude even more singaporeans from private home ownership.. something which the government clearly say they want to avoid.

    again, this is for discussion.

    perhaps i'd be better to buy 2 x 1m properties further out .. really don't know.

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    cautious
    unregistered posted 26-01-2007 08:35 PM Edit/Delete Message Kurious you raise a lot of good points and questions... I left Singapore just under 2 years ago... now back, and what a change... I think a combo of all the things you mentioned is driving the sudden turnaround here. Strong economy, many jobs coming here (at least in banking where I work), IRs, safe haven, cheap compared to other places etc etc. Any upswing takes time to gather momentum but when it hits critical mass it really moves - like now.

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    minnime1
    unregistered posted 26-01-2007 10:23 PM Edit/Delete Message I am not in the same league as you guys but yes I think there will be an upswing in the next 2 years across the board but I don't know what will happen beyond that - it will depend on the success of the IRs and cautious optimistic forecasts in economic growth. All I know is, I am putting my money where my collagen filled mouth is...in a freehold property in a good district.

    As my parents have told me...what is the worst that can happen? Just sell when the gut tells you it's time to...and I suspect it will kick in over the next 15 months or so.

    Barring "Acts of God" and I will advise anyone who is buying to be comfortable paying off the mortgage even if the market goes south should the doomsayers be proven right and the bottom drops off the market...make sure you have the holding power.

    I was lucky like many others that the poor broken down flat I lived in was sold collectively..but there are many others out there who are in the same position. They number the thousands and they have money to replace the houses they sold.

    Never borrow what you cannot pay over the next few years and you will be okay.

    Just my two cents worth...and I am NOT an agent, just someone who wants a reasonable roof over my head without losing my pants. As someone said to me recently " Darling, at the end of the day, it's all about LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION.

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    Enbloc mad
    unregistered posted 27-01-2007 03:06 AM Edit/Delete Message I'd have thought the turning point was St Regis, which people didn't think would sell at that high a price, but it did. That was pretty much the trendsetter as every developer then jumped on the bandwagon and started designing luxury condos.

    As for enblocing now, we've already outpriced ourselves, as everything in our area (Dist 10) have shot right up over the past 6 mths alone. Even in this area, everyone's now watching to see if Botanika will be a success, since it's priced at a luxury scale ($2000 psf).

    Acts of god? The government have been very responsive and fast to react to that so far, and the economy didn't take a long term hit. I suspect it's not acts of god, but voter swing that might hit the economy - if opposition actually wins some major constituencies.

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    minnime1
    unregistered posted 27-01-2007 07:11 AM Edit/Delete Message Even if the opposition wins it will be in the heartland constituencies- those living in the prime areas know which side their bread is buttered. It is not the rich and powerful that will vote against the incumbent.

    Judging by the results of last year's election it was a narrow win for the incumbent in one particular GRC - and the govt is very much aware of the issues that triggered that response and is taking steps to address the unhappiness. The upcoming restoration of employer CPF contribution is one as is the protection of jobs and the local version of welfare for the low income group. And I say Amen to that.

    Having said that, even if the opposition wins say 2 more seats in the next election in 2010, making it a grand total of 4, I doubt if there will be any significant impact on the housing market.

    As a few posters have pointed out it is really the external factors we cannot control- but such threats will always be there. Meanwhile life goes on and I think it will be sweet for the property sector for the next 2 years or so.

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    mortgage question
    unregistered posted 27-01-2007 07:41 PM Edit/Delete Message OK, semi-related.

    I've been renting here for the past few years. I have a housing allowance (3K mth, cash to me).

    I think I will be here two more years or so.

    I've heard mortgage rates here are low.

    Let's say I have S$100K cash and can afford S$4K/mth in mortgaga payments - what is the max property I can afford?

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    it depends
    unregistered posted 27-01-2007 09:59 PM Edit/Delete Message $1 million if you're a PR or citizen (i.e. 90% loan is allowed), or $500,000 otherwise (80% loan).

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    Buccaneer
    unregistered posted 28-01-2007 12:01 PM Edit/Delete Message Kurious

    Any reason why as a PR your time frame is 3 yrs ?

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    to Buc..
    unregistered posted 28-01-2007 12:13 PM Edit/Delete Message i thought you could not sell for 3 years.. or is that just foreigners??

    how about renting out your place.. is it allowed??

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    it depends
    unregistered posted 28-01-2007 05:22 PM Edit/Delete Message Ah, I forgot to take out the stamp duty (which you need to pay in cash). If you have 100k, you can get a place for around 700k (if PR or citizen), or 350k (otherwise).

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    pigs ear
    unregistered posted 28-01-2007 09:15 PM Edit/Delete Message I detect a certian local resonance in the more recent postings.

    this is because locals are more interested in Property than Expats.

    If asked... I always advise my PRC colleagues to buy in China and my India bosses to buy in India.

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    cautious
    unregistered posted 28-01-2007 09:40 PM Edit/Delete Message i was about to pull the trigger but the owner won't repair the cracked tiles in the bathroom and will not come down from his asking price. based on the launch value he's sitting on 200k + upside. i walked. no point dealing with a muppet.

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    minnime1
    unregistered posted 28-01-2007 10:51 PM Edit/Delete Message Does it really matter whether or not there is a "local resonance?"

    We are after all talking about making money in the Singapore context.

    Which is why I suppose this site is called what its is?


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    pigs ear
    unregistered posted 28-01-2007 10:54 PM Edit/Delete Message nope.
    the purpose of this website is to share useful info for expats... of any colour.and paypacket.

    Local musings on property purchase developments are not so relevant,... as compared to rental rates and where to get marmite..

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    minnime1
    unregistered posted 28-01-2007 11:05 PM Edit/Delete Message Yes ..musings about the singapore property market is not relevant, especially if the thread is about the housing bubble which is what the thread is about..wakakkaka

    Perhaps you may like to start a thread about where to get marmite but I suspect the subject has been discussed before..and I think the answer is Tanglin Market. But I could be wrong.

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    cautious
    unregistered posted 28-01-2007 11:17 PM Edit/Delete Message rents are up
    property prices are up
    marmite still tastes like sh1te.

    right?

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    The Market
    unregistered posted 29-01-2007 09:05 AM Edit/Delete Message Goldman Sacks released a report on Singapore property last Friday. In it they said we're at the begining of, and I quote "The mother of all mortgage cycles".

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    Locals Welcome
    unregistered posted 29-01-2007 09:06 AM Edit/Delete Message Too right.

    It never fails to amaze me when we get idiots twittering on here about locals on this forum. I, for one, am glad to hear what people with real knowledge and info about SG have to say.

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    Fools rush in ..
    unregistered posted 29-01-2007 09:42 AM Edit/Delete Message Local banks here are starting to compete for the mortgage business as the property market buzzes, ie, I think Maybank has just lowered their rates.
    Many people will rush in to borrow 'large' at low 2/3-year fixed rates to acquire much pricier property, only to get hit with the big jump in interest rates later, at the same time the market is flooded with new apartments. What happens when they can't find a tenant to cover this larger loan repayment?
    On the subject of the influx of foreign 'talent' into S'pore..do you think the majority of these will be able to pay $6-10K rent per month, or plonk down $300K d/p on an apartment then pay $5K a month loan repayment? This is the market today.
    Sure, there was room for upside to the property market from the flat base previously. But, prices are now close to the level where they crashed from in the 90s. Yes, there is probably another 12 months of slow upside left, but then reality will set in, ie, once all these new units start to flood the market. My advice is, save your deposit for another couple of years then bargain hunt.

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    Heart of Darkness
    Member

    Posts: 3308
    From:Singapore
    Registered: Apr 2002
    posted 29-01-2007 09:48 AM Click Here to See the Profile for Heart of Darkness Click Here to Email Heart of Darkness Edit/Delete Message Some logic there but..

    The property index as of end Q306 was 130.2 as opposed to 181.4 in May96. If you argument is that the market won't go much past the 96 peak then there is a way to go yet

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    The Market
    unregistered posted 29-01-2007 09:51 AM Edit/Delete Message But HoD, did you factor in "Acts of God" into that property index ?

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    Fools rush in ..
    unregistered posted 29-01-2007 10:12 AM Edit/Delete Message In terms of index benchmarking then I guess we're saying the same thing, that there is still some upside in the market? If you are buying into the market to make some cash, ie, what this posting was about earlier, I think it's a bad idea for the reasons stated above. When you come to sell your apartment in 1-2 years time (when the index is at prior peak levels) there will be a sh*tload of new apartments on the market. Will there be enough buyers in the market at that level for you to realise your paper gain?
    If you are buying into the market now for the long term, ie, as a PR, you will be borrowing more to pay for higher prices and get hit with a big jump in loan payments once the fixed period ends. And globally rates seem to be rising (the US, Europe and Japan rate cycle?).
    I think the market will look very fragile in 1-2 years time and don't see the sustainability of prices. I think there will be bargains to be had at that time.
    And yes, there are always Acts of God that could tip the market into decline, benefiting those who have been saving up for such a day :-)

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    ah beng
    unregistered posted 29-01-2007 10:16 AM Edit/Delete Message Little known fact - there are plans to built a Bukit Timah mrt line once the Circle line is completed.

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    Fools rush in ..
    unregistered posted 29-01-2007 10:36 AM Edit/Delete Message Ah beng...you trying to sell your place there for $1,100psf so you can u/g to district 9? Hahaha ...

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    Kurious
    unregistered posted 29-01-2007 10:53 AM Edit/Delete Message HoD and Fools, I suspect that if you isolate out D1-12, and factor in the jump/hype that we are seeing right now (Jan), the Q107 figure for this area will be looking very high indeed...

    hmmmm...

    But: what's to say it won't then flatten out, but at the higher level.. as HK seems to have done. Has HK property typically been a leading indicator of Sing property??

    more questions.. sorry.

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    Fools rush in ..
    unregistered posted 29-01-2007 11:23 AM Edit/Delete Message The only similarity between HK and Singapore is that prices have moved up. There are differences in demand/supply, population and workforce, affordability, and economic profiles. You need to look at Singapore's situation, with one eye on global economic growth, inflation and rate cycles.

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    Heart of Darkness
    Member

    Posts: 3308
    From:Singapore
    Registered: Apr 2002
    posted 29-01-2007 12:14 PM Click Here to See the Profile for Heart of Darkness Click Here to Email Heart of Darkness Edit/Delete Message Wish we had crystal balls... but then again if we did there would be no market

    I bought 2 and 3 years ago and will probably aim to sell the first one this year. The issue then becomes, do I keep the cash or do I re-leverage myself and jump back in...

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    Fools rush in ..
    unregistered posted 29-01-2007 12:45 PM Edit/Delete Message If it were me I would put the funds to work somewhere and wait out the euphoria. Re: crystal balls, we have a good idea of what the bottom of the market looks like from a couple of years ago. Keep an eye out for a bargain then get back in.

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    cautious
    unregistered posted 29-01-2007 01:09 PM Edit/Delete Message the below is all IMHO and from what i have been viewing most evenings and my weekends for the last 5 weeks.

    i still think there is "fair value" if you can pick up a place for somewhat less than 1000psf in 9,10,11. however, many condos 2-4 yrs old are quickly edging past this. the brand new condos in 9,10,11 do not seem to represent good value as they seem well past the 1000psf which has been driven by the phased releases and the flipping. there is a strong case that these will normalise and the final buyer will take a hit and dump it (unless considerable reserves to wait out?). what happens to the market if this a common occurence....

    i fully appreciate the points made by others about the rental affordability and what impact that might have. i'm loathe to pay 4k + per month on rent when i can pay my own mortgage with that amount. i'm here for the long term (bar act of god) and it's the only reason i even considered buying.

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    Fools rush in ..
    unregistered posted 29-01-2007 01:17 PM Edit/Delete Message I agree if you can get a prime condo for under $1000psf you (probably) have yourself a deal (and if you can push aside the fact it sold for $850psf 12 months earlier). However, most ads you see for such condos today even if they are 5-10 years old are asking $1,100+ (owners benchmarking to new condo pricing). This is yet another reason I think the market is fragile. I don't see them getting this with all the new units coming onto the market vying for the investor dollar.

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    cautious
    unregistered posted 29-01-2007 01:24 PM Edit/Delete Message To: The Market

    do you have the full GS report on singapore property?

    have just asked someone there to fwd it to me.

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    The Market
    unregistered posted 29-01-2007 01:39 PM Edit/Delete Message No, I don't. The summary was forwarded to me by a friend who works there.

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    To Fools Rush In
    unregistered posted 29-01-2007 02:21 PM Edit/Delete Message I really hope that you are right in that there will be good buys in 1-2 years time as this will present me with another oppurtunity to buy at a cheap price. However, my gut feel tells me this is not going to materialise. When it does materialise in 4-5 years time, even with a 20% decline the prices will be much higher that what you will pay today. Of course the market can go into a nosedive tomorrow if the terrorists succeed in blowing up a building in Shenton Way. Barring such unforeseen events, this present bull run still has a long way to go. It will pause along the way no doubt.

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    cautious
    unregistered posted 29-01-2007 02:44 PM Edit/Delete Message i don't think you'll get cheap - ever. singapore is fundamentally changing and feels very different to me after just 2 years away. the world is getting richer and asia/bric considerably so.

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    Fools rush in ..
    unregistered posted 29-01-2007 02:59 PM Edit/Delete Message These are the questions I ask:
    How many apartments will come onto the market over the next 2-7 years?
    How many apartments were purchased for investment in the past ten years?
    What is the population going to look like? How many foreigners are going to come to Singapore to work?
    What kind of salary will these foreigners be earning?
    Yes, rich Indonesian, Chinese etc: may be buying into the market, but are they buying to rent?
    How many S'poreans can afford to buy apartments at $1,200psf?
    How many S'poreans had bought investment properties before that have been waiting for this market, so they can sell and make some cash?
    My conclusion: I just can't see who is going to support the rental market psf at $1,400+ once all the new supply comes into the market, factoring in the demographics of potential demand.

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    .
    unregistered posted 29-01-2007 03:02 PM Edit/Delete Message Interesting thread. Shows what opinions are like - everyone has one.

    Personally, also being a long timer here, I have just bought a place. The tipping point for me came when the cost of rent became greater than debt sevice levels on property loans. Also I've only just got enough cash to paythe downpayment. The other advantage for me in buying is that I can use my CPF funds to part pay monthly instalments, CPF payments being tax free - a better use IMHO than earing 2.4% in the CPF account.

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    cautious
    unregistered posted 29-01-2007 03:34 PM Edit/Delete Message Fools rush in... makes some good points but the question is, IF there is a drop from 1400psf what will it be to? there are a lot of families out there looking for places. have 3 friends who are now looking following enbloc on cairnhill road. they are flush with $$ and are fully able and prepared to pay 1400psf for their new home. concur that it 's (probably)not sustainable everywhere....

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  2. #2
    chow private
    Guest

    Default Re: housing bubble?

    wow col.kurtz what has gotten into you? are you an expat?

    agree with the poster who says price will still rise and when it falls, will still end up much higher than now!

  3. #3
    col.kurtz
    Guest

    Default Re: housing bubble?

    Quote Originally Posted by chow private
    wow col.kurtz what has gotten into you? are you an expat?

    agree with the poster who says price will still rise and when it falls, will still end up much higher than now!
    Hi, I am just curious to know about what Singaporean investors think about the rising prices of property in Singapore. I am thinking of making a purchase of my own in Singapore.

    So... what do you think? Would you buy a property now at these prices?

  4. #4
    fool's gold
    Guest

    Default Re: housing bubble?

    Well, I think one day the bubble will pop and that's the end of all the fools queuing up to buy property.

  5. #5
    fool's gold
    Guest

    Default Re: housing bubble?

    No offence, mate.

  6. #6
    Unregistered
    Guest

    Default Re: housing bubble?

    Quote Originally Posted by col.kurtz
    Hi, I am just curious to know about what Singaporean investors think about the rising prices of property in Singapore. I am thinking of making a purchase of my own in Singapore.

    So... what do you think? Would you buy a property now at these prices?

    It depends on what you are planning to buy.

    Are you after a new property or one from the secondary market?

  7. #7
    yulishu
    Guest

    Default Re: housing bubble?

    depending on your objective of buying a property - to buy for investment (short/long term) or to stay..

    for locals, if simply to stay, just invest in a big hdb will do and spend the money on renovation...it's really value for money

    for 99-year leasehold condos - invest at good prices for speculative investment...i've not for condos, esp the 99-year ones as the developer and architects do not offer much in terms of external/external architecture to distinguish itself from a hdb... except for location & facilities, difficult to account for the extra premium..so when doing any property investment, scout for a project by a good developer (not necessarily the most "touted" ones)....

    for 999-year leasehold / freeland landed, if can find a good piece at a good rate, by all means invest as and when u find it... they're definitely better than the 99-year leasehold type...

    personally, i think the game has just started... so the price still has room to move, depending on your current position in the purchase chain...

  8. #8
    col.kurtz
    Guest

    Default Re: housing bubble?

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    It depends on what you are planning to buy.

    Are you after a new property or one from the secondary market?
    What is the difference? I am a single male, looking for a smallish, 2 bedroom private property in the districts of 9, 10 and 11. Not fussy about facilities. Easy access to taxis or public transport is much appreciated. The property has to be in ready-to-move-in condition, or at least would be in the next couple of months. I can put up in a serviced apartment for the time being.

  9. #9
    lurker
    Guest

    Default Re: housing bubble?

    Quote Originally Posted by col.kurtz
    What is the difference? I am a single male, looking for a smallish, 2 bedroom private property in the districts of 9, 10 and 11. Not fussy about facilities. Easy access to taxis or public transport is much appreciated. The property has to be in ready-to-move-in condition, or at least would be in the next couple of months. I can put up in a serviced apartment for the time being.
    col.kurtz, if you are intending to stay in singapore for the next few years then i think it is a good idea to buy. besides saving on rent, you property may even appreciate. but it is good to do some homework first on the properties you intend to buy. i would look for some bargains, ie: older properties, rather than the new ones.

  10. #10
    citizen x
    Guest

    Default Re: housing bubble?

    Quote Originally Posted by col.kurtz
    What is the difference? I am a single male, looking for a smallish, 2 bedroom private property in the districts of 9, 10 and 11. Not fussy about facilities. Easy access to taxis or public transport is much appreciated. The property has to be in ready-to-move-in condition, or at least would be in the next couple of months. I can put up in a serviced apartment for the time being.
    Hi colonel. If I were you, I would buy a non-prime condo, but still close to your workplace.

    If your workplace is in the CBD, you can consider some inexpensive condos just outside the CBD in locations like Tiong Bahru, Geylang, Kallang, Lavender, Farrer Park, Boon Keng, Pasir Panjang and West Coast.

    I am of the view that these high prices in prime districts will not last and anything in 9, 10, 11 you buy now will lose you money in the long run. But then that is just me....

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