Originally Posted by
Farnie
This story of raw materials going up thus driving up construction costs is just the `in' story for everybody, including the media. Last year or the year before was the IR, F1, the flyer. This yr, its YOG, inflation, food crisis, raw materials up. But raw materials px are and will come down. Esp after the China Oylmpics when the rush to complete projects eases. In addition, raw materials px are also driven up by speculators in the futures mkt and soon once they have made enough money from commodities, they will take the profits and seek other speculative products.
You only have to scan recent few days reports and you will see px of rice, soya and soon oil or other construction materials are expected to drop in the coming months. So construction costs will not increase.
Personally, I'm more interested to see what will be the rental rates for The Sail. If its not able to command the high yields expected from the skyhigh px, there will be a rippling effect on the rest of the markets.
As it is, there were already a lot of vacant units in recently completed TOP projects like Varsity Park, Raintree, Seaview, Urbanedge, Park Infinia with no takers as landlords are asking skyhigh rentals (as some has bought at skyhigh px from sub-sales and are now the last one holding the `hot potato').
There are some reprive. I have seen some movement of foreigners who were laid-off in US and Europe (eg london) to Sg in serch of jobs but these are not your CEOs who are paid high housing allowances. There are a few such CEO or CFO equivalent re-located from US to Asia, Sg included but its not significant enough as HK is absorbing the bulk of these expats who would otherwise be laid-off.
As such, my take is property px will at best be at current levels although i think a correction of 20-30% from current levels is still possible. I dun think it will go all the way down to 2004 levels. So I dun think the boat has left yet for those who has not bought.