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Thread: D15 Apt Status vs Condo Status

  1. #1
    Junior

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    Default D15 Apt Status vs Condo Status

    Hi all, am in the market for a 3 bedder for own stay.
    Hv been going around and doing a lot of research, and i do need some advice. Here's my take:
    1. Esta & One Amber although have hundreds of units, their land area and facilities are big. Pricing is close reaching launch price. Will there be further downside in 3 months? (NB the Sail is already reaching 1000psf)
    2. Private apartment status like Beacon Edge, Tierra etc are so cramped, it's really not a joke. They are averaging $550-800psf, but have ridiculous site layouts, and pathetic slivers of 'swimming' pools. These are more affordable quantum wise but are the worth it? e.g. Was close to confirming Beacon Edge from a beautiful site plan, but when i went into the construction site, my god, it was so cramped you can spit across the pool to the neighbour's PES. They're asking for $780psf - what a joke. Those that bought it at the launch price of $1200-1300psf are burning right now - idiots.
    3. So far the best layout/density is Ola residences which touts itself 'condo status' - riiiight. But the asking is $1080, which is like $50 bucks away from October 08 transaction. Ridiculous.
    4. Historically apartments have always been priced lower than condos due to lack of facilities. Why issit that today's (buy-2-old-terrace-build-one-apt) apartments fetch almost 20% above competing condos in the area?
    I'm getting v tired viewing properties and researching, especially when developers are still not grounded to reality, esp those projects launched 2007. Here's my prediction for end 1Q2009, and what i think is fair pricing:

    One Amber/Esta: $700psf
    Ola Residences: $680psf
    The Beacon Edge: $600psf
    The Sail: $880psf

    What you guys think? comments welcome, need advice whether to buy now, wait 6 months, or wait till 2010.

    PS: Another thought - almost all the apartment status launches and developments are marketed by the Huttons/Savills cartel - could this be the reason that prices are still being 'set' beyond market reality? thanks in advance

    (I know there are tons of Huttons/Savills agents in this forum so i'm not flaming you guys, rather i am trying to get clarity for my next purchase)
    Last edited by gfoo; 12th January 2009 at 12:57 PM.

  2. #2
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    I entirely agree with yoiur forecast with exception of sail, do not think it will go below 1000 psf for the worst unit,

    I highly recommend Cote d azur in the east and richmond park in D9,

    Good luck......

  3. #3
    Junior

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    Quote Originally Posted by condoinvestor
    I entirely agree with yoiur forecast with exception of sail, do not think it will go below 1000 psf for the worst unit,

    I highly recommend Cote d azur in the east and richmond park in D9,

    Good luck......
    True, the Sail is v hard to predict. I put it at $880 coz i'm hearing some very funny things from bankers about the bay area, and especially sentosa cove. e.g. out of the 1100 units at the sail, there are now on the market 780 listings for rents as of Jan 09. even if you discount 25% double counting, that's still almost half the project still not rented out. soon some of these investors might have to let go - then again, i could be wrong. hard to predict that area lah - for e.g. look at Icon in 05....everyone thought it sucked then out of nowhere boomtowncharlie

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    True, the Sail is v hard to predict. I put it at $880 coz i'm hearing some very funny things from bankers about the bay area, and especially sentosa cove. e.g. out of the 1100 units at the sail, there are now on the market 780 listings for rents as of Jan 09. even if you discount 25% double counting, that's still almost half the project still not rented out. soon some of these investors might have to let go - then again, i could be wrong. hard to predict that area lah - for e.g. look at Icon in 05....everyone thought it sucked then out of nowhere boomtowncharlie
    This is gloomy times, but interesting in some aspects.
    1. Many big developers learned their lessons from past downturns and now have ample cash reserves to tide them over next 1-2 years. Some choose rental, some choose slowing development....
    2. Many developers now have their own deferred payment scheme with bank 5% cash + 15% cash/cpf and no installment till TOP. Many buyers biting...
    3. Most buyers also have cash reserves to tide them over. No doubt some speculators are burnt...

    The most important puzzle piece here to upset the balance are those people who committed to original deferred payment plan property. If a sizeable number can't get loan, then price collapse is imminent. However, I am more inclined to think that bank will lend, albeit cautiously. By not lending, the impact from fallout is dire...

    I am waiting also. Tan Ku Ku liao. But if prices were to clash to those suggested in this thread, I am afraid I will be out of job by then...

  5. #5
    Junior

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    1. Many big developers learned their lessons from past downturns and now have ample cash reserves to tide them over next 1-2 years. Some choose rental, some choose slowing development....

    Agreed, but this applies to only some of the very big, e.g. FEO. those mid tier and smaller developers, esp those that have huge exposure to DPS like UOL etc have huge short term debt that if it's not rolled over, chialat. Even FEO: i went to orchard scotts see showflat - they claim one entire block was to be serviced apartments, occupational rate quite low lor. no wonder have to lelong the other 2 blocks at 1800psf

    2. Many developers now have their own deferred payment scheme with bank 5% cash + 15% cash/cpf and no installment till TOP. Many buyers biting...

    Some banks have sent out circulars not to encourage this in 2009. Buyers biting? not by the Nov-Jan transactions. Don't refer to one-off projects like Jewel Chuan Hoe etc, they were priced fairly thus did well.

    3. Most buyers also have cash reserves to tide them over. No doubt some speculators are burnt...

    Depends. Foreign and corporate buyers purely go by P&L. If dun make sense, they will immediately write down. When things get worse, expect next quarterly earnings in April, a lot of them will let go. Also, many international schools now begging for places - companies have stopped expat terms. I know, my expat finance friend is trying to sell numerous units before US CFO breathes down his neck.


    The most important puzzle piece here to upset the balance are those people who committed to original deferred payment plan property. If a sizeable number can't get loan, then price collapse is imminent. However, I am more inclined to think that bank will lend, albeit cautiously. By not lending, the impact from fallout is dire...

    Yes bank will lend, but only at valuation. E.g. The Rochester launch DPS about $1000-$1300. Now got pple lelong loft unit at $960psf. sure kena. There are many more such cases.

    What is worse - banks in 2009 are starting to ask for top ups. This is confirmed for most of Sentosa Cove properties, and some Orchard Road.

    I am waiting also. Tan Ku Ku liao. But if prices were to clash to those suggested in this thread, I am afraid I will be out of job by then...

    Hope you and all in this forum will be ok. But the reality is that thousands are losing their jobs, esp after CNY (Halimah Yacob just said today at least 2000 more jobs to be gone imm after CNY). The rank and file kena retrenched, means less money to buy stuff and services, means business owners kena affected.

    The last hammer to drop will be delays in TOP and deferred projects. This happened with Silversea, luckily impact small. this is rampant in commercial property now. Imagine you book and pay 20% now, and developer defers completion (this happened in 1980s mind you, and our recession today is worse than the 80s). That's why i am scared to get those 2011 or 2012 TOP properties. Coz their date of legal completion is 2015/2016, which means that legally, they can stretch all the way there without having to even announce 'deferment'

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    True, the Sail is v hard to predict. I put it at $880 coz i'm hearing some very funny things from bankers about the bay area, and especially sentosa cove. e.g. out of the 1100 units at the sail, there are now on the market 780 listings for rents as of Jan 09. even if you discount 25% double counting, that's still almost half the project still not rented out. soon some of these investors might have to let go - then again, i could be wrong. hard to predict that area lah - for e.g. look at Icon in 05....everyone thought it sucked then out of nowhere boomtowncharlie
    Somehow heard the same magic number that you mention for The Sail from other sources too.........is it true???? Wait till around end of Q2 whereby I believe there will be a lot of Bank sales and things will be crystal clear.

  7. #7
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    The market is correcting , but not at the same pace with financial , commercial and industrial sector as of now. Due to the following reason:

    (1) Property market has 6months lacking effect over the general economic performance. It will properly reflected in Apr to June 09.

    (2) Property TOP in current or previous quarter mostly bought during end 05 or early 06 with deferred payment scheme. The price could be 50% discount as compared to the peak during Nov 07. Most of these units still above water. I donít foresee these owner has any issue getting home loan and finance the home loan with rental income later. They are safe now.

    For those units TOP in last quarter 09 are mostly bought during early 07 till mid 07. The real price correction will start mid 09 (3 months before TOP) coupled with point (1)

    (3) Interest rate is still low , owner can still manage to finance their loan even with reduction of rental. Coupled with point (1) , residential demand will be low due to departure of foreign talents.


    I foresee sharp price reduction will be coming after mid 09. Remember everything going up fast and steep with drop sharp and quick. Nobody can know the lowest it can go before hand. Donít be stupid enough to predict . Great man think alike , fools are not indifferent too.




    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    1. Many big developers learned their lessons from past downturns and now have ample cash reserves to tide them over next 1-2 years. Some choose rental, some choose slowing development....

    Agreed, but this applies to only some of the very big, e.g. FEO. those mid tier and smaller developers, esp those that have huge exposure to DPS like UOL etc have huge short term debt that if it's not rolled over, chialat. Even FEO: i went to orchard scotts see showflat - they claim one entire block was to be serviced apartments, occupational rate quite low lor. no wonder have to lelong the other 2 blocks at 1800psf

    2. Many developers now have their own deferred payment scheme with bank 5% cash + 15% cash/cpf and no installment till TOP. Many buyers biting...

    Some banks have sent out circulars not to encourage this in 2009. Buyers biting? not by the Nov-Jan transactions. Don't refer to one-off projects like Jewel Chuan Hoe etc, they were priced fairly thus did well.

    3. Most buyers also have cash reserves to tide them over. No doubt some speculators are burnt...

    Depends. Foreign and corporate buyers purely go by P&L. If dun make sense, they will immediately write down. When things get worse, expect next quarterly earnings in April, a lot of them will let go. Also, many international schools now begging for places - companies have stopped expat terms. I know, my expat finance friend is trying to sell numerous units before US CFO breathes down his neck.


    The most important puzzle piece here to upset the balance are those people who committed to original deferred payment plan property. If a sizeable number can't get loan, then price collapse is imminent. However, I am more inclined to think that bank will lend, albeit cautiously. By not lending, the impact from fallout is dire...

    Yes bank will lend, but only at valuation. E.g. The Rochester launch DPS about $1000-$1300. Now got pple lelong loft unit at $960psf. sure kena. There are many more such cases.

    What is worse - banks in 2009 are starting to ask for top ups. This is confirmed for most of Sentosa Cove properties, and some Orchard Road.

    I am waiting also. Tan Ku Ku liao. But if prices were to clash to those suggested in this thread, I am afraid I will be out of job by then...

    Hope you and all in this forum will be ok. But the reality is that thousands are losing their jobs, esp after CNY (Halimah Yacob just said today at least 2000 more jobs to be gone imm after CNY). The rank and file kena retrenched, means less money to buy stuff and services, means business owners kena affected.

    The last hammer to drop will be delays in TOP and deferred projects. This happened with Silversea, luckily impact small. this is rampant in commercial property now. Imagine you book and pay 20% now, and developer defers completion (this happened in 1980s mind you, and our recession today is worse than the 80s). That's why i am scared to get those 2011 or 2012 TOP properties. Coz their date of legal completion is 2015/2016, which means that legally, they can stretch all the way there without having to even announce 'deferment'

  8. #8
    Junior

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    'nuff said. What this guys says is very consistent to what i have heard from banker friends this morn.

    http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?p=42323#post42323

    One of the Bank's CEO and developer got together to analise the current property market and do some calculation and short term forecast. This is what they have got :

    - 40,000 units coming into the market in year 2009
    - for the whole month of December only 300+ units sold for entire Singapore
    - Banks are not landing , only ppl with over 30% cash deposits and over 200k annual wages now have the chance to get a mortgage providing the property below valuation.
    - Rental plummeting and expats downgrading or running away from Singapore
    - towards the mid 09' default's rate to reach almost 50% for those who bought on DPS
    - prime areas are 30 to 70% down for the last 6 month

    their summarised and got extreme competition among those 40,000 units owners and very limited numbers of tenants will lead to massive freefall of property prices after March-April bottoming in June-August

    Government has to intervent the market or it will be the whole nation going into bankrupcy.

    Average prices to be expected in May - June by Condos according to their calculations:

    Ardmore 2 - $1300 psf
    St. Regis - $1,200 psf
    Cosmopolitan - $900 psf
    Rivergate - $800 psf
    MBR - $1,000 psf
    Oceanfront and The Coasts $700 psf ( this one one of the worth hit , with no tenants willing to stay that far away and crazy high maintenance of excess of $1000 per month, hours of morning traffic jams and no shops and facilities apart from overpriced One 15 no fools want to buy these units and their on DPS , most owners have less then a year to settle and ma ny of them have 0 liquidity in the bank where banks valuation on those going down everyday so there will be very limited financing)

    It could be a good time to short sell to buy again at much lower price towards the end of the year in around August to recoup some losses.

    This is about time for the Government to entervene but there is no sign of them doing that on the horizon..

  9. #9
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    To gfoo, what sort of price point are you looking at ? No, am not an agent. Think now is good time to scout for places you want to buy and watching the prices.

  10. #10
    Junior

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    Quote Originally Posted by pegasus
    To gfoo, what sort of price point are you looking at ? No, am not an agent. Think now is good time to scout for places you want to buy and watching the prices.
    That's the problem i face - i don't even know how to offer. i've been scouting since november. EVERY 2 weeks, the price for the same area drops bit by bit, some more than others. Agents will tell me - 'dun worry lah, not about money - you and wife like the place most important, scout around too much will only confuse you'

    But if i hadn't scouted around, i would have put a deposit on a place in Nov 15% more than its asking price now. Imagine if it drops another 15% in a couple of months - sooner or later what if the banks ask me to top up like what they are doing for luxe properties?

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